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     lylo
Member
Username: lylo
Post Number: 12
Registered: 03-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 01:31 pm: |  
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Not fully understanding Elliott wave patterns.....
is the current wave at 5 and due for a correction and
trade down to commence a new set of waves.....
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1997
Registered: 10-2002
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 02:26 pm: |
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I am far from fully understanding EWs but this is how I interpret it and hope it will not further confuse you.
Elliott Waves are fractals, that is they drill down to repeat the same pattern in a smaller scale ad infinitum.
So let me start with a monthly chart that places the start of of the impulsive 5 up waves to February 2003. Wave 3 is usually the longest wave so in this chart many would argue that wave 1 ended sooner.
I now move down to just wave 5 but in a weekly charts.This chart looks more like the typical 5 wave bullish impulsive chart that we thing of when speaking of Elliott waves. Looking at this chart one does get the feeling that it is looking slightly top heavy and a correction may well be due.
In fact the beginning of one may just be showing itself.
Now we go down one more level, this time wave 5 viewed as a daily chart.
On this chart I've started with the 3 bearish corrective waves and followed with the impulsive ones of which, of course there are 5. And finished with what could be the first of the next lot of corrective waves which should end somewhere between waves 3 and 4.
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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lylo
Member
Username: lylo
Post Number: 14
Registered: 03-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 05:36 pm: |
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Thanks Hershy..........clear as mud!!
no no it is clearer, so then the correction could go as low as 6225 to 6150 roughly.......that's if that Elliott knows his marbles...........have a good night
........cheers
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1998
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 26, 2007 - 05:44 pm: |
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No Lylo,
Not if Elliott knew his stuff.
The thing about EWs is that you never know if you have the right count until the wave has completed and the next one is undeniably under way.
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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lylo
Member
Username: lylo
Post Number: 20
Registered: 03-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 13, 2007 - 09:05 pm: |
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Hershy,
Looks as though the 5th wave was on the daily;weekly and monthly and is now down to 6200.
On another chart you posted, you had a retracement, is that on IQ.
.........cheers
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2008
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, June 13, 2007 - 09:46 pm: |
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Sorry lylo, I don't understand the question about IQ.
Wave 5 finished higher than on my previous chart. I would say that 6436 was the top of wave 5.
Today's low may well be the end of wave a, the first of the 3 corrective waves which can reach below wave 4.
Then again, if the bears have come out of hibernation, we can have 5 impulsive waves down.
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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lylo
Member
Username: lylo
Post Number: 22
Registered: 03-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, June 14, 2007 - 06:42 pm: |
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Sorry Hershy for the misunderstanding, on the other post where trends move out of the channels you posted a chart with a retracement from o% to 100%. What I meant was this available on IC ( not IQ as I put ).
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 164
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 04, 2007 - 02:31 am: |
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EW count of the XJO (daily) at the moment is generally sprouted as having just completed a "extended W5 of 5 " --- the current move is supposed to be the ABC correction -- A to 6150 --- C to 6050 .
To determine "C" when "B" is complete -- C is usually to B -- what A is to W5 .
At all times though EW is NOT predictive -- if the COUNTS do not line up -- then either the count is wrong OR the stock/index simply does not trade under EW -- only around a 3rd of XJO stocks do .
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Waves 1 & 5 tend to be the same length.
Wave3 is generally the longest in both price & time BUT can never be the Shortest.
Wave2 cannot go below the start of Wave1.
Wave A and Wave C tend to be the same length
The ABC correction after W5 is the most severe -- 50% to 63% of the W2 to W3 move is the general for W5 to "C"
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2023
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 04, 2007 - 06:39 pm: |
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Good explanation Coyote. You filled in some holes in my knowledge,
Thanks.
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2046
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 14, 2007 - 08:29 pm: |
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Bob Prechter, author of "Prechter's Perspective" states :
Other than price, volume is one of the most important things to watch. Generally, increasing volume on a fifth wave means that the wave will extend. Light volume in a supposed third wave means it's not a third wave. Both of these situations present invaluable information.
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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lylo
Member
Username: lylo
Post Number: 30
Registered: 03-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 29, 2007 - 03:13 pm: |
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Hi coyotte & hershy,
Just returned from a months holiday and into it again.
Coyotte...good explanation of general layout of EW's I'll put them in the black book.
It looks as July 24 end W5 then ABC correction would be at least double the W5 to A at the moment of 3.5 ..ie.64.32 -60.82 does that sound right. Or would it depend on where B corrects to ?
cheers............
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 188
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, July 30, 2007 - 09:21 am: |
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Chart is the Major Counts of the XJO
there will probably MINOR counts within the ABC correction -- not just a simple straight lines setup
One of the main points to be aware of here is " (A) to (C)" ratio --- the distance from " (A) to (C)" tend to be the same as the distance from " W5 to (B) " .
If less then bullish -- If greater then bearish .
If (C) terminates above (A) then VERY BULLISH
If your interested in EW then it would do no harm to read Robert Miner's works -- he goes into depth on the EW patterns -- his Software " Dynamic Trader " attempts to follow the principles he outlines .
Very true Hersay about the Volume -- if W3 is the main wave in both time and price it must have the support of the Insto's
W5 is where they are probably easing out their positions
(Message edited by coyotte on July 30, 2007)
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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