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     hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 314
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 31, 2007 - 04:59 pm: |  
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I'm trying to study some chart patterns to see if i can find some correlation between top performing stocks. I wan't to refine my portfolio management skills.
I will be reviewing stocks that have been the top performing stocks over a five year period. Feel free to comment on them if you want.
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 316
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, July 05, 2007 - 04:58 pm: |
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OK, lets get back on track..
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2451
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 05:15 am: |
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Why 5 years ?
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2452
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 05:17 am: |
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Why not consider Weinstein status?
Why not consider forecast earnings?
What matters is not the past but the future?
How would you determine a Top 20 List?
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 318
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 01:39 pm: |
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Why 5 years?
I am using weekly candles to display my graphs.
Daily candles seem to produce too much noise; so I am either left with weekly or monthly candles. For the moment, I choose weekly candles.
If the duration is too short, I may miss significant values that may affect the trend (5 year highs). If the duration is too long, I may miss some details within the graph.
Of course this number may be tweaked in the long run, but for now it seems to suffice.
Why not consider Weinstein status?
In strict sense, I am using the weinstein breakout model. However, my focus isn't at entry and exit points, as I already have a trading strategy for that. What I'm more concerned about how to screen for stocks that have strong trends that cant be easily shaken. You can think of it as identifying the strongest weinstein stage 2 in the market
Why not consider forecast earnings? What matters is not the past but the future?
I am not so keen on this one. One reason is that I understand that I do not control the market. The only thing I control is how much I want to invest. Hence, I'd rather focus on managing capital on changing market conditions rather than predict future market conditions.
How would you determine a Top 20 List?
Right now, all I am simply doing is scanning stocks that have the largest % increase within the one year period and that are still near their highs. This sounds reasonable to me that they're still going strong.
What I hope to achieve out of this exercise is -
Determine how to scan for stocks that currently have market support
Determine what is the accepted variance for a stock that trends upwards.
I hope I have answered your questions.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2454
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 01:56 pm: |
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As I understand it you are looking for steepness of trend over 12 months
A UK trading trainer has suggested 4.5% retracement as a stop point for short term trades and 10.5% for long term trades
Are you willing to give up 10.5% of a share price in order to retain the chance of remaining in an uptrend?
In actual fact different stocks have differing volatility around the median price, so a one size fits all approach for stops may not work as well as an individually measured one using say 2 standard deviations from the median
However, since you say you have an entry and exit strategy stops may not be the main issue ... though you did raise a question about "accepted variance"
My answer is that an acceptable variance depends on the volatility of each stock
If you make available a year of weekly data for a particular stock I can show you what I mean in the form of a chart
Effectively you seem to be saying that a year's momentum may signal another good year
Have you back-tested this ... or do you have an example portfolio which could be monitored using your selection method?
Are there no other selection criteria that you wish to consider?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 321
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 02:35 pm: |
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As I understand it you are looking for steepness of trend over 12 months
Close, but not quite. I'm looking for a way to scan for a trend that just rises on a week-to-week basis without too much variance... as to determine what is considered 'too much', im trying to find that out now
However, since you say you have an entry and exit strategy stops may not be the main issue ...
Correct. I am using a money management method that takes this issue out of consideration (See http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=12&post=112826#P OST112826)
My answer is that an acceptable variance depends on the volatility of each stock
I see. Then I would redefine my objective as this:
Determine what is the accepted variance for a low-volatile, upwards-trending stock. i.e. Is the trend having 'normal' noise, or is it actually consolidating?
Right now, I honestly can't set down a number. What I do is I put myself in the situation where I have bought the stocks - by observing the closing prices, when will i get a gut feeling that the stock is going nowhere. A sea of uptrending blues is fine with me, but when the price hasnt gone anywhere for a week or two, I start to have doubts.
For sure, I do not want to be stuck in consolidation that lasts more than a month. I would rather be happy to accept the losses somewhere in that month and jump onto another stock that has good momentum.
I will try to find an acceptable volatility in which it could accurately describe a top performing stock.
If you make available a year of weekly data for a particular stock I can show you what I mean in the form of a chart.
If you are asking for the one year price history, you can use http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/qt/index.ac . Otherwise, the charts are being posted as sub-threads to this main thread.
Effectively you seem to be saying that a year's momentum may signal another good year
Yes, that is what I am hypothesising. I have created some portfolios to test this and most of the stocks have had an increase. If you are interested, I can set up my portfolio status here.
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2027
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 02:56 pm: |
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Just slightly off topic in this very interesting discussion but I do recall reading a few years ago a well known ( and forgotten by me) guru who said that every 1st of January he looks at 10 - 15 year yearly candlestick charts and in most cases have a fairly good idea of what the charts will next year.
That's the next candle mind you !
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2455
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 03:22 pm: |
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Hershy
Does it work?
Hibikijoji
BHP swings between control limits (blue) which are $ 1.95 apart
Are you prepared to hold through such swings in order to remain in the trend?
At what point in the following chart would you have been willing to enter (remembering that later chart points would not be visible)?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2456
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 03:24 pm: |
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The time scale is 51 weeks ended 2nd July 2007 ... yahoo data
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 2028
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, July 06, 2007 - 03:49 pm: |
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I would not have bought after this chart (Dec 2006). Would you ?
Coulda, woulda, shoulda .............
Pointless question.
It all depends how one feels at that time.
It's not the chart, it's the chartist !
"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket."
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 322
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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