AQA - 168.10%
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     hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 327
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, July 07, 2007 - 09:53 pm: |  
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I am posting this chart, not because this is a strong stock, but it has something peculiar. At the two '???' places, it seems that it had a correction instead of a breakout.
I can deduce that the first one is choppy, which indicates a war between buyers and sellers, hence the increased possibility of a correction. The second one had one week that was under the red line. Not sure why... certainly the three red candles before it doesn't look too healthy...I'll think about this one.
Here's a closeup
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2462
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 08, 2007 - 07:10 am: |
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I am confused
What period of faster momentum do you think predicts a future period of momentum ?
How do you come to the conclusion that there will be further momentum and not a retracement ?
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 671
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 08, 2007 - 08:25 am: |
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What a good share to have had hibikijoji ~ even if you are confused hilarius!
FWIW I see a retest of a breakout (at the ???) whereas in March 05 & Jan 06 the retest of breakout did not show on the weekly chart.
The Daily chart below confirms this proposal.
If you are magic (hilarius) you will predict the future (to be clear I do not think you hilarius are proposing that we predict the future - but FWIW you did ask the socreteal question) ~ for the rest of us if you want to make money by trading shares you will sell when your stop is triggered (whatever stop out method is approriate to your trading plan) and not because you think a retracement is about to occur (even if at some times your system fails). Of course this process will be different for the day trader, mid term and long term investor (and this aspect has been the cause of numerous arguments on the website because of dogmatic application of one trading plan over another).
More to the point happy trading or investing all
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 328
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 08, 2007 - 10:11 pm: |
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What period of faster momentum do you think predicts a future period of momentum ? How do you come to the conclusion that there will be further momentum and not a retracement ?
In the past three charts I've posted, a general indication of faster momentum has these traits:
(1) The current price is at its highest
(2) The previous bars have been bullish (that includes red candles)
(3) The previous candles only overlap in a small range of prices
(4) the candles % gain is equivalent to the gains seen several years back
(5) At the breakout candle, the closing price is above the the previous high
(6) If you draw a regression line (on a log graph), there is a distinct, smooth trend.
Mind you, this is only indicative that there will be gains. As to how much will be gained, I am not so concerned.
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 329
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, July 08, 2007 - 10:32 pm: |
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Let's look at two different instances for AQA.
When it has weak momentum
Notice here that
(1) it is not at its highest
(2) It is bullish
(3) previous prices overlap
(4) there have been bigger candles in previous years
(5) the last candle does not break previous high
(6) The trend is scattered
I would not consider this stock at this point in time at all
When it does have good (not strong) momentum
(1) it is at its highest
(2) It is bullish (note the red candle at 20/03/2007)
(3) 02/03/2007 to 17/03/2007 had close to no overlaps
(4) the candles aren't that big though
(5) breaks previous all time high
(6) The trend is still scatters but starts to become more stable, consistent.
I would not consider this graph to have trends that show strong momentum
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2845
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 09:27 am: |
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Did you ever get around to checking up on that out of the ordinary Day back in June[ish] 2005,hibikijoji?
The one that jumped up out of the Action,only to return the next day?
I see you used it later as a High Point for a Horizontal line but did you look into Why?What caused it?
I haven't gone delving back into 2005 announcements but when I've seen this before it is usually caused by a Capital ReOrganisation Move.It's some kind of an anomaly causing a Chart Distortion.As such I wouldn't think it's a Day to hang a line off.A mere "Freak" occurrence.
What do you reckon?
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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ohkoolnutz
Member
Username: ohkoolnutz
Post Number: 723
Registered: 10-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 08:37 pm: |
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Yeah it is one of those data errors which shouldn't happen. Same issue with PRM_US on August 01, 2007.
---
ohk
Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis
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hibikijoji
Member
Username: hibikijoji
Post Number: 443
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 04, 2008 - 07:25 am: |
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thanks guys for your insight.
I reviewed the chart, and it looks like this.
Disclaimer :
The views expressed here are for experimental practices only. They have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.
Please consult your broker or financial adviser before making an investment decision.
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