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     farid
Member
Username: farid
Post Number: 5
Registered: 08-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 12:04 am: |  
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Hi all
Where I must place Fibonacci Retracement?
Where is the position of the start point and end point(0% and 100%)
thanks
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1491
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 06:39 pm: |
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Usually the last highest and lowest points.
...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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farid
Member
Username: farid
Post Number: 6
Registered: 08-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 01, 2006 - 06:52 am: |
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Thanks hershy
I know it was an elementary question, but I want to discuss in depth.
So what is the differences among these levels?(Which one is the most powerful and etc. )
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1492
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 01, 2006 - 09:19 pm: |
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That question, my friend, is not one that I can attempt to answer. I am far from having full understanding of Fibonacci numbers and projections. I did read somewhere that some traders use the Fibbo levels as stepping stones in pyramiding. Entry after 23.6% retracement with SL at ground zero. If the price moves to 38.2% level, the stakes are doubled and SL moved up to 23.6% level. If the price continues upwards and reached the 50% line, another parcel is purchased and SL is moved up to the 38% line. This is repeated at every Fibbo level (if you are lucky) up to 138% level.
...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 238
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 01, 2006 - 09:39 pm: |
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Hershy and Farid,
If Fibonacci levels where the universal building blocks of growth where are the references in modern biology? I fear that the only uses of the fibonacci numbers are elliot wavers and other misdirected traders.
Cheers
Laffee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
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farid
Member
Username: farid
Post Number: 7
Registered: 08-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, September 01, 2006 - 11:52 pm: |
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Hi
Thanks
2 more questions:
1.What happened if we place the end(100%) at arrow mark(hershy chart)?
2.What is the relationship between Fibonacci Retracement and elliot wave?
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1493
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 02, 2006 - 04:15 pm: |
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G'day Farid,
1.What happened if we place the end(100%) at arrow mark(hershy chart)?
What do you think happens ?
2.What is the relationship between Fibonacci Retracement and elliot wave?
It is assumed/expected/believed/hoped that Elliot waves retrace in Fibonacci ratios.
For example:
Wave two to tends to retrace between 23.6 and 73.6% of wave one.
Wave four tends to retrace between 38.2 and 50% of wave three.
Then of the 3 corrective waves, A and B should be of the same approximate length while wave B will retrace between Fib's 38.2 and 73.6 of wave A.
Looking at the following chart for Westfield these Fib numbers can be calculated thus:
Wave one's length is 114 cents and retracement was 51 cents which is 44.73% which fits the criteria.
Wave three, the longest of the waves - as it should be, is 160 cents and retracement is 86 cents or 53% which just overshoots the range.
Of the next 3 waves, wave a is 71 cents and wave C should be the same length. Wave B should retrace between 27 and 55 cents so putting this together would warn the trader that
WDC SHOULD move up to between $18.18 and $18.50 and then produce a reversal point somewhere between $17.47 and $17.75.
And as you know, if enough traders believe this and act accordingly, this will in fact happen.
As it happens, I am a believer and have planned my re-entry accordingly having last exited at $18.50
Hope this makes sense and hope I am not off the planet.
 }
...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 73
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, September 02, 2006 - 09:53 pm: |
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Another way is to look for clusters of fibbo numbers ,ie major range inter range minor range , in conjunction with candles with long tails ?? time sequences?? waves ,ewaves loosly ,very subjective <my> volume spikes ,etc etc. here is an example;
GBG i set a buy order on an av of 4 ranges all time major and three other inter ranges,average was .4375 i placed a buy at .425 it hit .42 ,exact 50% of all time major range ,so as well as the major range we have at this point a nice spiked candle ,increase in vol,good vol on a big green candle two days ago no major sell off the last two days,seven waves down from last minor hi which went 19 trading days uo into hi and has taken 34 days to come down into low<very> Possible d/btm,fundies possitive,there is a time sequence here also,ALL in conjunction with this fibbo cluster,worth a punt.I think we have a trade evolving.ALL initialy based on a fibbo cluster....
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 255
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 06:41 am: |
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farid, hershy, lafee,
especially to farid,
Technical Analyse is an Art indeed, and not a Science.
Artists are so many on this world, but scientists...................
If you dont understand where, how and why are to be placed the Fibonacci Levels like 0%, 38%, 50%, 62%, 100% on a chart, for an evolution of the MEAN IN TIME, than you should read more about the discipline called SMAC=statistical and mathematical analyse on chart, and to learn about THE GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITY=LIKELYHOODS.
Cheers,
Doru Stoian
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farid
Member
Username: farid
Post Number: 7
Registered: 08-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 01:42 am: |
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Thanks hershy for your good description and thanks danielc(but I did not understand your reply well)
Hershy,I don't know what happens if we place the end(100%) at arrow mark!
so after your replys I think first I must find the elliot waves and place a fibo retracement from the start to the end of each wave(1,3 or A) to find targets of waves 2,4 or B.
Is it right?
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stoian
Member
Username: stoian
Post Number: 256
Registered: 03-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 08:31 am: |
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Dear Farid,
Please look at this chart, with a forecast made inside of the Fibonacci Retrace(ments), or inside of the GAUSSIAN FIELD OF PROBABILITY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN IN TIME.
Fibonacci Retrace(ments), or the Gaussian Field of Probability, are not subjective things, to be oriented like anyone wants.
Regards,
Doru Stoian
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1496
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 09:11 am: |
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Hello Farid,
What Daniel was saying above is that you should look at a chart at different time frames and mark the Fibonacci lines If you find identical or almost identical Fib levels on say the weekly and daily charts they take on more meaning and give each other more validity.
"Hershy,I don't know what happens if we place the end(100%) at arrow mark! "
}
If you are going to measure retracements, will you measure to the last high - marked as 1. or will you measure to lower highs ? You will probably look for a retracement to the highest high as that make be a complete retracement - which is what we usually hope/aim for.
"first I must find the elliot waves and place a fibo retracement from the start to the end of each wave(1,3 or A) to find targets of waves 2,4 or B.
Is it right? "
Yes, but keep in mind that Elliot waves only prove if they are correct or not AFTER the event. You never know during a wave if you have the right count.
I look at EWs as just another indicator. Even very knowledgeable educators and expert traders get EW wrong at times.
Anyway Farid, as I have said at the start of this thread, my grasp of EWs and Fib lines is minimal. For any further "education" you should get your hands on "Simple Fibonacci Trading" by Michael Jardine. To whet your appetite, go to
www.Traderslibrary.com/tradesecrets and look for the online manual for this title. You will find some notes that may be of interest.
Now to contradict myself, the chart I posted above is for TCL. I entered this trade last week when the price moved above the Fib 38% line but I was measuring retracement to only the last high, 3 on that chart, not the highest high.
This, because I trade short terms and I am just aiming to take out the last high. Operator bias.
Clear as mud, right ?
Cheers and happy trading.
...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 1497
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 06:07 pm: |
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Farid,
Back around the 5th of August I noticed that TRG was making a stand so looked back to see if I could see a wave pattern and marked the chart accordingly. I then guesstimated that wave 1 that I thought was forming should have a target at anywhere between $10.30 and $10.75. I just noticed that Thursday and Friday covered this range. If this will play out as an EW TRG should now retest the areas between 10.45 and 9.52.
BUT the high at $10.70 on Wednesday may already have been the top of wave 1 and then Thursday's low at $10.20 would already meet the guidelines for wave 2 which means that wave 3 may have already begun. But we won't know for sure till wave 4 is underway. And even then, it could all fall down.
Boring stuff, really !
...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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