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     david_louisson
Member
Username: david_louisson
Post Number: 272
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, January 27, 2007 - 03:09 pm: |  
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Did a search of the IC forum and couldn't find this link anywhere, so am posting it for anyone who might be interested.
http://thepatternsite.com/
A well-presented reference of more than 70 chart patterns and their associated probabilistic usefulness, for those who don't have Mr Bulkowski's book(s).
Happy New Year - best wishes to all for 2007
David
(Message edited by david_louisson on January 27, 2007)
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2091
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, January 28, 2007 - 01:07 pm: |
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Happy New Year to you too,David.
Did you make any resolutions to venture back into the Share Market?
Or do you still think the Rules/Methods of BlackJack mainly apply?
David,if you'd only consider the Colonial Oz market instead of that Proper City jazz of being up in the night, swing trading London.
David,being mensa,world beating is pretty sad if ya can't turn Buck$ from it!!
regards 'n' cheers like Happy Trading,David.
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
30 day FREE trial -
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tick [1] VWAP in the upcoming "Whata we Want" subscriber poll of additions to d'Value 4 $'s IC chart programme.
VWAP is d'Tool of Professionals,TRUE!!
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david_louisson
Member
Username: david_louisson
Post Number: 273
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, January 31, 2007 - 01:24 pm: |
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Dug, my friend, thanks for your reply.
About 9 months ago I read Catherine Davey's book "Making Money from CFD Trading: How I turned $13k into $30k in three months" (Wiley & Sons, 2006). She apparently uses some simple technicals, but, if I understand her correctly, favors fundamentals (always checking the gold market, and getting tips from her economist and trader friends), intuition, superstition (she won't trade on a day when her dog vomits!), and attributes her success largely to the fact that CFDs allow her to pyramid into positions. I realize that hers is only one possible approach, but it nonetheless convinced me that my analytical style of thought was ill-suited to trading. "If you're a proudly inflexible man" she says "I don't believe you will find it easy or enjoyable to trade successfully". If only somebody had told me that five years ago! (But, being proudly inflexible, would I have listened?) 
More recently, a gent at our local TA group persuaded me to take a look at forex. His argument was that forex price movements were more predictable than stocks, and that the 24-hour continuity made it easier, by eliminating overnight gaps. I'm afraid I ended up disagreeing on all counts. News announcements frequently cause wild intraday volatility, and the continuity means that opening price is irrelevant, not to mention that there's no volume, no market depth, and of course much less choice in terms of instruments to trade. The most successful forex traders that I encountered study economics, and trade the news events.
Somewhere here I remember saying that I'd never throw in the towel, but three statistics eventually persuaded me otherwise. The first was that only 5% of those who take up trading survive. Would I take on 100 people in a competitive activity, many of whom are vastly more experienced than I am, and expect to beat 95 of them? Those are incredibly tough odds.
The second was a comment that trading is 5% method, and 95% psychology. Well, I spent 5 years trying to devise a successful method, and decided that if it was going to take another 95 to master the psychology, I definitely started a little too late in life.
The third is that my wife and I have four dogs, hence the probability of having one vomit is quite high.
Seriously though, I salute the 5% who attain success consistently. However, I have to admit that I always had this nagging doubt: given an activity where there are only two possible outcomes (prices rise, or prices fall), then one would reasonably expect 5% of the participants to have a high number of winners, at least for a while, merely as the result of a normal frequency distribution. (And as we all know, bull markets can last months, even years). So how much of an edge does knowledge and experience provide, and how much of trading success is the result of pure luck? I expect that, until one is enjoying consistent success, one can never be totally sure.
Cheers
David
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2106
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 01, 2007 - 10:01 am: |
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David,
I've got issues/doubts about that 95% Trader Fail Rate.Like was Trader self defined or did the survey apply criteria?
I reckon that statement is one of them Urban Myths perpetratated by Institutions or them who should be Institutionalised, like despicable Coach Types!It's some dribble used to sell unit trusts to DIYers or philosophical Pap to d'Gullible!!
Anyway I went to your site above and didn't seem to be able to open any of the 1001 categories.It might be my JUNK borrowed computer but I did notice that the terms Month and 30 days used as one and the same and of course David,we've talked about this before.
A MONTH of TRADING DAYS is NOT/NIX 30 blasted DAYS!
that's a Calendar!That's in the Wide World.
any dill contemplating dabbling in Shares MUST realise there's 20 days[odd]not anywhere Near 30 days in a Trading days Month.
You are widely read in TA theory,David why WHY is this basic point IGNORED in most writing about TA?
Why can't they use relevant/specific day counts or even Fibonacci numbers?
WHY use 14/30/90 and maintain the illusion they're talking a FortNight/Month/3 months when in Trading Days They just are NOT!!
something for you to rationalise,David while ya waiting for ya dog to get better.
tick [1] VWAP in the upcoming "Whata we Want" subscriber poll of additions to d'Value 4 $'s IC chart programme.
VWAP is d'Tool of Professionals,TRUE!!
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david_louisson
Member
Username: david_louisson
Post Number: 274
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, February 02, 2007 - 01:41 pm: |
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Dug, even if the failure rate is below 95%, it's still very high. Anyway, I finally came to the realization that my personality is ill-suited to trading. And I've yet to see conclusive proof that price "trends" are anything other than the result of a random probability distribution. Burton Malkiel has always made more sense to me than Jack Schwager.
For some reason the links on the Bulkowski site seem to respond only to the primary mouse button (left button for a standard, right-handed mouse user). However, I'm using Mozilla Firefox rather than Internet Explorer: perhaps that is the reason.
Re the 30 days, the NZX is closed during weekends and public holidays, hence there are generally around 20 trading days in a month, as you point out. I assume the same applies with most other international exchanges.
Cheers
David
(Message edited by david_louisson on February 02, 2007)
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mrbzatwork
Member
Username: mrbzatwork
Post Number: 4
Registered: 02-2007
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 07:49 am: |
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Thanks for that post, what a great website.
"If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right." -Henry Ford
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