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     hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2163
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 13, 2007 - 11:21 am: |  
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Good Morning
I am currently involved in several research projects with various IC Forum members
The projects are productive and stimulating ... and I have gained great insight into the need for patience before making entries
[In the past impulsive entries have been my downfall.]
Unfortunately the projects have side tracked me from the project which has delivered the largest returns over the longest period ... Weinstein analysis
Now I would like to propose that any member interested in Weinstein stages might like to join me in creating a Register of stocks according to their PERCEIVED Weinstein stage
I suggest that each interested participant takes a letter of the alphabet and eyeballs IC Charts to determine the Weinstein Stage ... or alternatively use any other technique for stage recognition which might be your preferred method
I further suggest that each participant publishes their PROVISIONAL findings, for general comment and discussion, in this thread using a sub-thread for their allocated alphabet letter
I will claim Letter A even though a certain family member would prefer me to choose B or W
Since I don't have time to engage in correspondence I will simply undertake to allocate a Letter of the Alphabet to anyone who sends me a Private Message
After that it is up to you!
I propose the following Stage classifications :-
1 ..... All Stage 1
2.1 ... Early Stage 2
2.2 ... Developing Stage 2
2.3 ... Long Term Stage 2
3 ..... All Stage 3
4.1 ... Early Stage 4
4.2 ... Developing Stage 4
4.3 ... Long Term Stage 4
Since the classifications are only a matter of opinion and can become stale and out of date they are purely for the purpose of creating a watch list ... and will not constitute any form of advice or recommendation
My own experience is that recognition of active early Stage 2 situations can be highly rewarding but as always due diligence, money management and risk tolerance are matters for each individual
Each participant would need to be fully responsible for the management of their Alphabet Letter classification and postings, preferably with illustrative chart examples from time to time
Any takers?
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
PS This would clearly be a "Work in Progress" as it is unreasonable to expect all stocks to be analysed at the one time ... only Snifter can do that!
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 2514
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 13, 2007 - 11:54 am: |
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hilarius,
I like to be involved but due to my limited computer knowledge if you do not mind my snail's space, I will accept B.You will as usual provide the guidance we all need.I have actually been doing this on my own, although looking out for Stage4 and 1 going into stage 2.In other words, I have always been an early bird and riskier in my approach.
regards,
Peter
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-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2164
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 13, 2007 - 12:15 pm: |
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Hello Peter !!!
Welcome to the Register
Please consider yourself the "Letter B Guru"
I am creating a sub-thread for letter B
Welcome Aboard
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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wadda
Member
Username: wadda
Post Number: 519
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 13, 2007 - 07:31 pm: |
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hilarius...count me in except I'm off for a couple of weeks so if it's OK I'll pick whatever letter may still be outstanding in two weeks time.
Hopefully "y"...not too many companies with "y" .
Cheers,
wadda
"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2169
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 13, 2007 - 07:49 pm: |
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Hi Wadda
It will be great to have you take charge of a letter
How about I reserve "Q" for you?
That should give you some good Sunshine State stocks 
Keep in touch ... will look forward to your return
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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wadda
Member
Username: wadda
Post Number: 521
Registered: 10-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 13, 2007 - 08:20 pm: |
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Hi Hilarius,
I will happily accept the letter "Q"...this is starting sound like Sesame Street!
Back in a couple of weeks.
Wadda
"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein
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suemac
Member
Username: suemac
Post Number: 351
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 14, 2007 - 10:32 pm: |
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Roger, Is it ironic that you chose Friday 13th to start this little project??? Can I take letter "P" please; I hope I can do justice to the task at hand.
Also, can I please stick to using words rather than numbers? I know your fascination with things numerical but my memory lends itself more to the written word.
Any suggestions on numbers of charts; top 300, penny dreadfuls etc etc???
Regards
Susan
Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2172
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 12:49 am: |
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Hello Suemac
By all means receive a commission to manage the Letter P
How will you manage to classify the P stocks without using numbers
You have me intrigued
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 575
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 12:47 pm: |
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Hilarius,
I'd like to join your research project as an apprentice weinstein watcher. What do you see as the critical factor in deciding what stage each stock is in?
cheers
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suemac
Member
Username: suemac
Post Number: 352
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 01:39 pm: |
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Hilarius, I'm referring to Stage 1: 1, early stage 2: 2.1 etc etc. I'm going to drive myself crazy clicking back and forward to your list. Although, having said that, for consistency's sake, why don't I just print it out and post it note to my computer?
Regards
Susan
Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 2175
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 01:45 pm: |
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Hello Smallworld
The key factors are well set out in Chapter 2 of Stan Weinstein's "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", and particularly in Diagram 2-1 on Page 32
To summarise it in words :-
Stage 1 The 30 week MA after falling over a long period flattens out, while the price may criss-cross the MA
Stage 2 The 30 week MA turns up often around the time a price break out with volume causes the price to move up quite strongly above the 30 week MA. The 30 week MA then starts climbing consistently while the price retracements stay above the 30 week MA
This stage consists of early rises and retracements above the 30 week MA, then as weeks or months pass more such rises and retracements (always respecting the 30 week MA) become the "developing" strong upward trend
These two sub-stages I have labelled 2.1 then 2.2
After many months or years the trend continues upward in the established stage 2.3 (see QBE as an example)
Finally the trend flattens and the price again criss-crosses the sideways ranging 30 week MA ... Stage 3
The opposite of a Stage 2 upward breakout from a flat or ranging Stage 1 is a breakdown from Stage 3 where descending lower highs and lower lows all occur below the falling 30 week MA, until an eventual base is formed (a new Stage 1)
Since this is an over-simplification I strongly urge a reading of Chapter 2 of Stan Weinstein's book for a more detailed exposition.
In the Australian market we tend to get more instances of the retracements breaking the 30 week MA, both in uptrends (Stage 2) and downtrends (Stage 4) making it more difficult to judge whether the uptrend or downtrend is intact
This is due to the trading volumes in Australia being so much smaller than in the USA. Nervous nellies and stop raiders can influence prices in the short run more than is the case in larger markets.
So judging Weinstein stages is more subjective here
I tend to let stops take care of over exuberant retraces against the trend, and then re-enter when the trend has clearly resumed (using expanding GMMA's after a contraction of GMMA's as the indicator that the original trend has resumed).
Would you like to take charge of the letter "C" by eyeballing the charts and doing a preliminary assessment of Stage 1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 3, 4.1, 4.2 & 4.3?
If you post your list or send it to me for preliminary review I will be happy to give you my stage assessments for what they are worth, for comparison with yours
I will do this for other lists which people do, and will be interested to compare the results with Livermore "swing trading" signals as I gain more understanding of those
From this comparison useful trading system refinements may flow ... perhaps combining the best of Livermore and Weinstein thoughts
I suspect that Livermore's methods work best in volatile sideways moving stocks (Weinstein Stage 3)
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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