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Letter C ... Smallworld smallworld 12 1 21-Dec-07  09:16 pm

Letter A ...Hilarius peterloh 41 5 22-May-07  10:48 pm

Letter P ... Suemac peterloh 16 2 08-May-07  12:58 pm

Letter D ... Quod Erat Demonstrandum (QED) qed 11 1 07-May-07  10:15 am

Letter B ... Peterloh peterloh 15 10 03-May-07  08:42 pm

Letter Q ... Wadda wadda 2 1 13-Apr-07  10:53 pm

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hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2163
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2007 - 10:21 am:

Good Morning

I am currently involved in several research projects with various IC Forum members

The projects are productive and stimulating ... and I have gained great insight into the need for patience before making entries

[In the past impulsive entries have been my downfall.]

Unfortunately the projects have side tracked me from the project which has delivered the largest returns over the longest period ... Weinstein analysis

Now I would like to propose that any member interested in Weinstein stages might like to join me in creating a Register of stocks according to their PERCEIVED Weinstein stage

I suggest that each interested participant takes a letter of the alphabet and eyeballs IC Charts to determine the Weinstein Stage ... or alternatively use any other technique for stage recognition which might be your preferred method

I further suggest that each participant publishes their PROVISIONAL findings, for general comment and discussion, in this thread using a sub-thread for their allocated alphabet letter

I will claim Letter A even though a certain family member would prefer me to choose B or W

Since I don't have time to engage in correspondence I will simply undertake to allocate a Letter of the Alphabet to anyone who sends me a Private Message

After that it is up to you!

I propose the following Stage classifications :-

1 ..... All Stage 1
2.1 ... Early Stage 2
2.2 ... Developing Stage 2
2.3 ... Long Term Stage 2
3 ..... All Stage 3
4.1 ... Early Stage 4
4.2 ... Developing Stage 4
4.3 ... Long Term Stage 4

Since the classifications are only a matter of opinion and can become stale and out of date they are purely for the purpose of creating a watch list ... and will not constitute any form of advice or recommendation

My own experience is that recognition of active early Stage 2 situations can be highly rewarding but as always due diligence, money management and risk tolerance are matters for each individual

Each participant would need to be fully responsible for the management of their Alphabet Letter classification and postings, preferably with illustrative chart examples from time to time

Any takers?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

PS This would clearly be a "Work in Progress" as it is unreasonable to expect all stocks to be analysed at the one time ... only Snifter can do that!

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 2514
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2007 - 10:54 am:

hilarius,

I like to be involved but due to my limited computer knowledge if you do not mind my snail's space, I will accept B.You will as usual provide the guidance we all need.I have actually been doing this on my own, although looking out for Stage4 and 1 going into stage 2.In other words, I have always been an early bird and riskier in my approach.

regards,

Peter

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

hilarius

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Post Number: 2164
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2007 - 11:15 am:

Hello Peter !!!

Welcome to the Register

Please consider yourself the "Letter B Guru"

I am creating a sub-thread for letter B

Welcome Aboard

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

wadda

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Post Number: 519
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2007 - 06:31 pm:

hilarius...count me in except I'm off for a couple of weeks so if it's OK I'll pick whatever letter may still be outstanding in two weeks time.

Hopefully "y"...not too many companies with "y"

.

Cheers,

wadda

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

hilarius

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Post Number: 2169
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2007 - 06:49 pm:

Hi Wadda

It will be great to have you take charge of a letter

How about I reserve "Q" for you?

That should give you some good Sunshine State stocks :-)

Keep in touch ... will look forward to your return

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

wadda

Member

Post Number: 521
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, April 13, 2007 - 07:20 pm:

Hi Hilarius,

I will happily accept the letter "Q"...this is starting sound like Sesame Street!

Back in a couple of weeks.

Wadda

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

suemac

Member

Post Number: 351
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, April 14, 2007 - 09:32 pm:

Roger, Is it ironic that you chose Friday 13th to start this little project??? Can I take letter "P" please; I hope I can do justice to the task at hand.

Also, can I please stick to using words rather than numbers? I know your fascination with things numerical but my memory lends itself more to the written word.

Any suggestions on numbers of charts; top 300, penny dreadfuls etc etc???

Regards

Susan

Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2172
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, April 14, 2007 - 11:49 pm:

Hello Suemac

By all means receive a commission to manage the Letter P :-)

How will you manage to classify the P stocks without using numbers

You have me intrigued :-)

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

smallworld

Member

Post Number: 575
Registered: 01-2004

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Votes: 0


Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 11:47 am:

Hilarius,
I'd like to join your research project as an apprentice weinstein watcher. What do you see as the critical factor in deciding what stage each stock is in?
cheers

suemac

Member

Post Number: 352
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 12:39 pm:

Hilarius, I'm referring to Stage 1: 1, early stage 2: 2.1 etc etc. I'm going to drive myself crazy clicking back and forward to your list. Although, having said that, for consistency's sake, why don't I just print it out and post it note to my computer?

Regards

Susan

Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2175
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 12:45 pm:

Hello Smallworld

The key factors are well set out in Chapter 2 of Stan Weinstein's "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", and particularly in Diagram 2-1 on Page 32

To summarise it in words :-

Stage 1 The 30 week MA after falling over a long period flattens out, while the price may criss-cross the MA

Stage 2 The 30 week MA turns up often around the time a price break out with volume causes the price to move up quite strongly above the 30 week MA. The 30 week MA then starts climbing consistently while the price retracements stay above the 30 week MA

This stage consists of early rises and retracements above the 30 week MA, then as weeks or months pass more such rises and retracements (always respecting the 30 week MA) become the "developing" strong upward trend

These two sub-stages I have labelled 2.1 then 2.2

After many months or years the trend continues upward in the established stage 2.3 (see QBE as an example)

Finally the trend flattens and the price again criss-crosses the sideways ranging 30 week MA ... Stage 3

The opposite of a Stage 2 upward breakout from a flat or ranging Stage 1 is a breakdown from Stage 3 where descending lower highs and lower lows all occur below the falling 30 week MA, until an eventual base is formed (a new Stage 1)

Since this is an over-simplification I strongly urge a reading of Chapter 2 of Stan Weinstein's book for a more detailed exposition.

In the Australian market we tend to get more instances of the retracements breaking the 30 week MA, both in uptrends (Stage 2) and downtrends (Stage 4) making it more difficult to judge whether the uptrend or downtrend is intact

This is due to the trading volumes in Australia being so much smaller than in the USA. Nervous nellies and stop raiders can influence prices in the short run more than is the case in larger markets.

So judging Weinstein stages is more subjective here

I tend to let stops take care of over exuberant retraces against the trend, and then re-enter when the trend has clearly resumed (using expanding GMMA's after a contraction of GMMA's as the indicator that the original trend has resumed).

Would you like to take charge of the letter "C" by eyeballing the charts and doing a preliminary assessment of Stage 1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.3, 3, 4.1, 4.2 & 4.3?

If you post your list or send it to me for preliminary review I will be happy to give you my stage assessments for what they are worth, for comparison with yours

I will do this for other lists which people do, and will be interested to compare the results with Livermore "swing trading" signals as I gain more understanding of those

From this comparison useful trading system refinements may flow ... perhaps combining the best of Livermore and Weinstein thoughts

I suspect that Livermore's methods work best in volatile sideways moving stocks (Weinstein Stage 3)

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2176
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Sunday, April 15, 2007 - 01:13 pm:

Suemac

A rough rule of thumb for Sub-Stages 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3 which are purely my own idea (as far as I know) and not recommended by Weinstein ...

2.1 The first 2 higher highs and 2 higher lows above the 30 week MA after Stage 1

2.2 Anywhere in the next 3 higher highs and higher lows above the 30 week MA, after Stage 2.1

2.3 Anywhere in the new higher highs and higher lows (after the 5 higher highs and higher lows in Stages 2.1 and 2.2) while the price remains above the 30 week MA

Similar thinking can be applied to the descending stages 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3, with the lower highs and lower lows all occurring below the 30 week MA

I personally think it matters little whether one uses the Simple, Weighted or Exponential 30 Week MA although the use of simple is subject to lack of smoothing, and so is perhaps the best one to avoid

Perhaps I should have begun the project on 1st April, but since there are no fools in this Forum perhaps the 13th was the better choice so that we can all bend our efforts to disproving Murphy's Law?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

smallworld

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Post Number: 577
Registered: 01-2004

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Votes: 0


Monday, April 16, 2007 - 08:57 am:

Hilarius
letter C is mine!

hilarius

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Post Number: 2189
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Monday, April 16, 2007 - 09:19 am:

Smallworld

Done!

The Letter "C" thread is open for business

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

jimmyswell

Member

Post Number: 77
Registered: 07-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, April 16, 2007 - 07:48 pm:

Hi Bon Frere Hilarius,

Not that I'm volunteering just yet because I don't really understand Weinstein in full. Maybe when recognition is second nature then I'll ask for a letter.

I think I understand the four phases and some of the transition conditions, but could you please clarify the typical time period we should be looking for/at?

ie can an equity transition all 4 stages within a few months or is it a usually longer-term time frame? In looking at the chart for MEE, I can see all 4 stages within a 6 month span. I can't tell if this is a proper Weinstein example, or just jittery short-term noise.

mee

Please someone set me straight, so I can stop floundering about.

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2192
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Monday, April 16, 2007 - 09:08 pm:

Bon Soir Monsieur Swell

Weinstein says short term traders can use daily charts but I don't see a lot about that in his book

His preference seems to be weekly and monthly charts

When you turn round the telescope and look at MEE through the long term perspective of a monthly chart I get the clear concept of a Stage 4 decline, Stage 1 Base and Stage 2 breakout over an extended period of years

That as far as I can see is the "true" Weinstein approach

I've seen people try to use the stages in short periods, but they don't seem to get results which are as convincing as those of the longer term chart users

Then again no "short termer" has ever produced any statistics which would allow me to judge his or her efforts fairly

I remain sceptical about the value of the short term stages especially as Weinstein places so much emphasis on the 10 week MA for short term traders, and the 30 week MA for long term traders, with so much of his book devoted to the use of the 30 week MA

The price action of MEE is so choppy that I don't get a clear view (long term) until I look at the monthly chart using 10 month and 30 month averages

My short answer to you is that I would need evidence that the application of 10 day and 30 day averages to daily charts would really work ... I feel it leads to getting lost in the forest ... with too many whiplash entries and exits ... but that might just be a personal bias

While I don't think the Weinstein stages are much use in the short term I am open to persuasion from someone with statistics on short term stages and trading profits over a large enough sample of stocks

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

mee

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

jimmyswell

Member

Post Number: 78
Registered: 07-2006

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Votes: 0


Monday, April 16, 2007 - 10:02 pm:

Greetings oh Monk of MA,

Thanks for setting me on the righteous path. I'll noodle around with weeklies and monthlies to see if it all falls into place a bit more clearly.

I appreciate your time and patience. I wish I had enough of each to read Dr W's book. Each time I pick it up in a bookshop, I put it straight back because I know it will sit in my "every best intention" pile for years.

qed

Member

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Registered: 01-2006

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Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 08:21 pm:

congrtas H. i would be honoured to take any letter u choose pormoi... BUT I will not be wasting my time on anything outside top 300 .Im into my second reading od S.W it just keeps getting better ,,Cheers QED

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 2195
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 08:54 pm:

QED

Letter D Allocated

Thanks for joining the project

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

combatwombat

Member

Post Number: 1
Registered: 04-2007

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Votes: 0


Sunday, April 29, 2007 - 02:38 pm:

Hilarius and other Weinstein watchers,

I was wonder what people thought regard the Weinstein approach and company Betas. By this I mean, Weinstein says to not be long on a company if it is not outperforming the market (Weinstein relative strength has to be above the middle line). If you have a company with a beta of say 2.5, in an overall bull market (as we have at the moment) you would expect the Beta 2.5 company to be outperforming the Market. I am interested to find out if anybody out there adjusts their Weinstein relative strength to reflect the target companies beta. By this I mean that over a given period if the whole market is up 10%, we expect our target company to be up 25% (2.5 * 10%). What if the target company is only up 15%? It would pass that section of Weinstein’s analysis but technically speaking, the company is underperforming for its given level of risk.

Also, I was wondering how strict people keep to Weinsteins relative strength? It is very subjective to the base period, how far back into the time do people normally go? Also, do people look at the position of the Weinstein relative strength indicator (i.e. above or below the line) or more the slope (yes, it is below the line but it is rising)

Personally myself I normally start my analysis by putting on a weekly chart of 2.5 years and look at that Weinstein relative strength. I generally cull a stock if it isn’t out performing the market (i.e. if the Weinstein relative strength isn’t above the line) but, I do however look at the slope of the weinstein relative strength when it is above the line.

-Adrian

hilarius

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Monday, April 30, 2007 - 02:59 pm:

Good Afternoon Combat Wombat

Good thinking

Incredible Charts allows the inclusion of XAO as a comparative line ... I agree that outperformance compared to the XAO is important

It may be that the recent steepness of slope of a moving average for a given stock will be greater than that of the XAO even where the end point for the stock is well under that of the XAO when a starting point is set well back from the present

Recent better steepness if sustained through HHs and HLs would constitute good outperformance?

Regarding Beta isn't that an issue for tighter or looser setting of stops, as long as the trend is right?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

combatwombat

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Registered: 04-2007

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Monday, April 30, 2007 - 09:59 pm:

Hilarius,

Personally i don't use the "comparative line" i use the "price ratio" It is a better mimic of what stan has on his charts.

RE beta... i think my point here was lost. If a stock has a beta of 2.5 it is expected that this stock should perform 2.5 times better than the market. Just using a compartive line or price ratio or whatever will give a bullish signal as long as the stock outperforms the market. However, a high beta stock is expected to do MORE than just beat the market, it should beat the market by 2.5 times for my above example.

I was wondering if anybody does any adjustments for stocks betas....

-Adrian

ohkoolnutz

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Post Number: 562
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007 - 09:41 am:

Isn't the beta just another lagging indicator?

Would you rather be in a beta 2.5 stock with an actual performance of 1.5x the market or in a beta 1.0 stock with an actual performance of 1.5x the market? (Wouldn't the first be a decelerating stock and the second be an accelerating stock?)

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

combatwombat

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Thursday, May 03, 2007 - 04:17 pm:

Despite the fact that I put that previous comment up, I actually agree with you. I just look to find a stock that is outperforming the market. I have just had that thought running through my head from reading about CAPM and the like.

So, my next question out there to the Weinstein Register is how do people set up their charts and what filters do they do (if any).

I do a scan with the incredible charts filter and I basically just do the following filter
- Minimum share price 80 (this is just to avoid small priced shares, a personal preference of mine
- Share price equal to 95% of its 1 year high
- 50 MA above 200 MA
- Average 100 day volume of 200,000

Occasionally I put the volume spike or volume MA filters but I haven’t had much luck with that.

I use the price ratio indicator and generally do my first scans with a 2.5 year weekly chart.

How do others do their Weinstein scans?

-Adrian

biddy

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Post Number: 5
Registered: 02-2006

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Votes: 0


Friday, July 27, 2007 - 10:48 pm:

Can anyone else offer advice on scanning for Weinstein stocks with IC?? I am currently reading Weinstein's book, and I am trying to paper trade. But my problem is that I am not sure on the best scan to find Weinstein stocks, and I am going no where fast. Also, does anyone think it is still relevent to do sector analysis first. I have had a look through the forum, to try and answer my questions, but many of the posts are from many years ago, and I am not sure if they are still relevent.

Thanks

coyotte

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Post Number: 196
Registered: 12-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, August 04, 2007 - 01:43 pm:

CEY :

Seems to be in a struggling early stage 2 for the last 2 mths

But I include a 10 wkema (10-30 crossover) to scan for stocks in a possible early EW-wave 3 or early Weinstein stage 2 (same thing really )

(Message edited by coyotte on August 04, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

lylo

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Post Number: 33
Registered: 03-2007

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Votes: 0


Sunday, August 05, 2007 - 02:07 pm:

Hi coyote,
Looking at CEY over 5yrs I dont know whether it has finished stage 1 yet.
I agree with finding something with stage 2 and EW 3
would be the ideal setup.
...........cheers
CEY

coyotte

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Post Number: 197
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Monday, August 06, 2007 - 09:50 am:

lylo

just looking at CEY from a different perspective -- mainly the McLaren 123 higher lows setup for confirmation ( ideally there should also be 3 higher highs )

Disclosure -- hold long

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

biddy

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Registered: 02-2006

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Sunday, August 12, 2007 - 08:45 pm:

Coyotte and Lylo

Thanks for taking the time to post a reply, much appreciated.

Biddy

coyotte

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007 - 08:52 am:

biddy

Although not 100% Weinstein --- try a 10x30 Weekly Bullish X-Over as a initial scan --- from there determine if the stock is actually coming up from a Low Consolation area --- then if applicable apply any Entry filters you may use .

Though do not forget Weinstein is a "Trend Following" method so the rest of the rules as they apply to the indexs should also be taken into account --- At the time of this post I would seriously doubt that "Trend Following" is the correct method to be using -- at the moment and foreseeable future .
" Volatility Methods " are probably more applicable .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

sway

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Tuesday, February 05, 2008 - 07:57 pm:

This thread has gone quiet. Anyone still interested? Okn's comment about volatility methods vx trend following has me thinking....

Sway

toby

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Registered: 03-2008

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Votes: 0


Monday, March 24, 2008 - 05:21 pm:

This may be Weinstein early stage 2.

begin stage 2 ?

Volume has been picking up along with the Relative Strength.

Bollinger Bands (not shown on chart) show overbought issues;
- retrace back to old resistance line on the cards (for a possible entry point) before continuation of stage 2.

toby

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Registered: 03-2008

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Saturday, April 12, 2008 - 05:58 pm:

alright, retrace done, continue stage 2..

sway

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Monday, June 30, 2008 - 08:56 pm:

BLD looks interesting. Downtrend flattened out back in Feb/Mar. Since then there have been 5 touches of the $5.60 support. RS has not yet made up its mind. Could go either way but I think it will move into Stage 2 next. And there is a good fully franked dividend .

bld