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Day Trading the ASX20 with CFD

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eric
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Username: eric

Post Number: 133
Registered: 09-2006

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Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 01:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well, I am sort of back from my holiday and started to look at the market again. Looking for some new trading methods, using CFDs, I have come up with the following trial.

I am investigating a trading plan to day trade CFDs, concentrating on the ASX20.
This gives me 20 stocks to scrutinise; any more would be too difficult. The ASX20 stocks have big daily volumes, ensuring a trade when needed.

Selection criteria:
Set intraday chart to 2 minutes, you may have to wait until about 10:30 am before both EMA show up. If you trade after about 11:30, set interval to 5 minutes.

Using the intraday chart, set one EMA to 7, second EMA to 15
If EMA7 crosses above EMA 15 and price is above both, buy.

After you bought, set chart to 5 minutes interval.

Set stop loss just below the EMA 15, trailing up as the EMA moves up.

I will always sell at the stop loss, however should the EMA7 move up steeply, I will consider taking profit if the price drops below the EMA7. This is a subjective judgement.

At this stage I am only trialling with a quite small number of shares, just above the minimum brokerage.

Any opinions or suggestion are very welcome.

Attached are my (so far) 2 trades, I will put all trades on the forum as we go along.

10 Sep 07
FGL 1900 shares bought at 6.38. Sold at 6.40, profit 13.76
11 Sep 07
ANZ 502 shares bought at 28.33, sold at 28.48, profit 46.84

Running profit $60.59


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 04:03 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



11 Sep 07
Shortened BXB sold 953 shares at 13.85, bought back at 13.79. profit 30.91.
Running Profit $91.50


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Time frame: as long as it takes

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davkell
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Tuesday, September 11, 2007 - 10:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Eric; Good profits trades so far, but realistically best to wait till you've done 20 trades to have an idea on the profitability of it.

Curious though, can you advise what your stop losses are for each trade and/or what the profit is in a R format. Ie. If you total risk is $100 and your profit is $200, then you've made a 2R profit.

Also, may I ask what your total trading capital (at least for your CFD account) is? Curious as your buy positions are in excess of $10K.

Cheers.


"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp

"Manage the downside; the upside will take care of itself" - Donald Trump

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eric
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Hi Dave, I realise that one needs many more trades before one can establish any idea of profitability. At this stage, I am just developing this trading plan and will of course tweak it as experience will tell me. I will certainly be grateful of any feedback from the group.

As far as the stop loss is concerned, as I said earlier, I set it just one tick below the EMA15 and trail it up as the EMA trails up. There is no certain percentage.

At this stage, my total CFD account stands at $5000. I treat CFD totally separate from my normal trading account.

If for example you take my ANZ trade, total trade $14214, margin 3%, eg $$426. But of course the full margin is never at risk. I can't tell you in hindsight now what the biggest downside would have been, as it depends on what the intraday chart is doing. The main percentage of any loss would be brokerage, which is 0.1%. I will have a look at the next trade and see what the worst scenario would have been.

Hope this helps

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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davkell
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Sounds reasonably OK. Not sure what you meant by "of course the whole margin is not at risk". I would say that your margin is all at risk and then some.

Example: You buy your FGL shares, but before you sell them the stock goes into a trading halt awaiting a report. The report is negative and upon trading again, immediately gaps down 5% (very possible scenario). In this case you are immediately $606 down, which is two times your margin and 12% of your total capital! Just be aware that this can happen, and in a leveraged environment, can hurt real quick!

Look forward to your progress!


"Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom" - Van K Tharp

"Manage the downside; the upside will take care of itself" - Donald Trump

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chart_rider
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Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 04:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



eric
I also was about to comment on the leverage.

There are times when the 1 minute EMA7 is above the EMA15, while at the same time the 5 minute price is below the EMA15 - presumably in this case a buy is not triggered.

There will also be times when the 5 minute price is considerable above the EMA15 when a buy is triggered. Do you have a limit on this, even without a trading halt followed by gap down, the stop could be a few % down, which at the leverage indicated could result in a wipe out after a losing streak. Unless you choose situations where the set up is more perfect and the % to the stop loss is small. This in turn will limit the number of trades, which may be OK, but could result in limited business returns.

CR


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eric
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Wednesday, September 12, 2007 - 08:38 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



today I could not find any suitable (low risk) trades, simply because of the situation chart rider mentioned. The price of course does not change, whether I look at the 2 min chart or the 5 min chart. However early in the morning, the 5 min chart will not show up an EMA 15, until then I use the 2 min chart, but with great care. I must have the price above both EMAs before I act, and the faster EMA has to be above the slower EMA.
If the price is already too high above the EMAs, I will not act on the signal, as I consider that I noticed it too late.

Of course we all know that trading is part science, part art, thus many decisions wil have to be subjective to a certain degree.

Of course as you realise, This is only the very beginning of this particular trading systems, a lot of fine tuning is yet required. Thus I only allocated a very small percentage of my trading capital ($5000) to CFD trading, if I lose some of it, well, we all have to pay for our apprenticeship.

My trading over the last few years was quite succesful, so if I have to give a little back, too bad. But at this stage, it should not be a big problem. Only time will tell.

Dave and chart rider, Thanks for your input.

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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13 Sep 07
WPL 254 shares bought at 46.74, sold at 46.70, loss 30.93

Running profit $ 60.57

I still have to answer a couple of questions.

Dave said:
Not sure what you meant by "of course the whole margin is not at risk". I would say that your margin is all at risk and then some

Of course in the situation you mentioned, you can risk more than your margin. As a matter of fact, the stock can go belly up and you risk the whole value. But the latter probability is pretty low with ASX20. However the same happens if you hold the actual stock. CFDs are nothing more than buying shares with borrowed money. So I can't see much difference there, unless you go overboard because you don't have to outlay the lot at the time of purchase.There is always a risk. But we trade with probabilities, not certainties.

Chart rider said
There will also be times when the 5 minute price is considerable above the EMA15 when a buy is triggered

Yes, this happens. I realise that and have refined my entry criteria sightly.

I shall post that tomorrow.

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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easymoney
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Thursday, September 13, 2007 - 07:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



WPL 254 shares bought at 46.74, sold at 46.70, loss 30.93

Does that mean that the commission is about $20 round trip?
I always reckon that commission is the killer with day trading.


Two of them say they're Jesus.
One of them must be wrong.

Industrial Disease
Dire Straits

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eric
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Easy money, you are right. The commission is the killer. Thats why you have to trade in big volumes. At this stage, I only trade small CFD volume for testing. But if you want to make a reasonable profit, you have to increase volume. At the moment I keep it just above the minimum, which is $10000

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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14 Sep 07
SGB 339 shares bought at 33.85, sold at 34.01, profit 31.27.

Running profit $ 91.84

I have refined the selection criteria after input from various sources. Thank you for the input.

New criteria:

Set intraday chart to 2 minutes, you may have to wait until about 10:30 am before both EMA show up. If you trade after about 11:30, set interval to 5 minutes.

Using the intraday chart, set one EMA to 7, second EMA to 15

Buy if:
EMA7 crosses above EMA 15 and price is above both, AND
the share price has NOT increased by more than ½% since previous trading day

After you bought, set chart to 5 minutes interval.

Set stop loss just below the EMA 15, trailing up as the EMA moves up.

If after 1 pm, I use 10 min chart for stop loss

Sell if:
Trailing stop loss is hit. Or
If today’s price range rises to or above 85% of ATR (16 days ATR)

Note:
I like Davekell’s post in Trading Psychology – Small Trader Good Lessons (15 Sep 0-7). A very important principle in share trading.


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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18 Sep 07
bought BHP 307 shares at $38.5

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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19 sep 07
sold BHP307 shares at $40, profit $430.4
Running profit $522.24

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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19 Sep 07 shortened BHP 304 shares sold at 40.06. bought back at 40.20, loss of $67.10. (How stupid can I be)
$455.14
Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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20 Sep 07
bought BXB 865 shares at 13.82, sold at 13.97, profit $105.87
Running profit $ 561.01

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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20 Sep 07 bought OXR 2999 shares at 3.65
21 Sep 07 sold OXR at 3.69 profit $95.33
21 sep 07 bought AMP 1279 shares at 10.32, sold at 10.32, loss $26.39

Running profit $629.95

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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chart_rider
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eric
If you havn't done so yet, it might be time to start running statistics such as win ratio, average win/loss size, profit index etc, and record the profit as an equity curve to show up features such as drawdowns. This will provide greater insight to the success of the strategy.

CR


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eric
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Chart rider, I will set those stats up after 30 trades

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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24 Sep 07
bought WDC 607 shares at 21.39, sold at 21.48, profit 28.65
bought WBC 553 shares at 27.36, sold at 27.47, profit 30.57

Running profit $ 689.17

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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25 sep 07
bought AMP 1399 shares at 10.40, sold at 10.46, profit 54.84

bought OXR 1526 shares at 3.79, sold at 3.81, profit 27.59

bought ZFX 607 shares at 17.48, sold at 17.63, profit 69.83

Total profit $ 152.26

Running profit $841.43


Time frame: as long as it takes

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mezza8
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Hi Eric
I have just had a quick read through these posts and the one thing that struck me early on was that you use a 1 minute chart and then switch to a 5 minute chart.

If you enter on a 1 minute chart I would have thought it best to stay with it on a day trade, especially as day charts often have their own support and resistance throughout the day.

Cheers Mezza


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eric
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Mezza, I agree. I only use the 1 minute chart if I want to get on early in the day. later I switch to 2 min and later still to 5 mins. If you stay on the 1 min chart, you get stopped out to quickly

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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qed
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eric re getting stopped out open 15 MIN chart as well it may help .. cheers qed


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eric
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Ged, 15 min chart definately out. Check it out on an intraday chart

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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26 Sep 07 bought BHP 269 shares at 43.83
28 sep sold BHP at 44.45, profit 137.15
Running profit $978.58
So far, I consider that the trading plan works. This profit was achieved with only $5000 in my CFD account, in a very short time frame. I shall now slowly increase my CFD investments, whilst keeping to my other plans, buying mother stocks.
I will not post any further results here, however would be happy to post further, should there be some interest.

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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ingot54
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Eric ... have been following your trial with interest - and I have to say "Well Done".

You have achieved around 20% in 3 trading weeks - very consistently too.

I paste your system here for comment:

Selection criteria:
Set intraday chart to 2 minutes, you may have to wait until about 10:30 am before both EMA show up.

If you trade after about 11:30, set interval to 5 minutes.

Using the intraday chart, set one EMA to 7, second EMA to 15.

If EMA7 crosses above EMA 15 and price is above both, buy.

After you bought, set chart to 5 minutes interval.

Set stop loss just below the EMA 15, trailing up as the EMA moves up.

I will always sell at the stop loss, however should the EMA7 move up steeply, I will consider taking profit if the price drops below the EMA7.

This is a subjective judgement.


I have no problem with the "subjective" part, though I was wondering whether this judgement actually improved or eroded your profits.

My own method used a "discretionary" stop - where if it looked inevitable that the stop would be taken out, I would pre-empt it and close-out the positions earlier.

This is an excellent and simple approach ... I am wondering too whether more complicated approaches can/have achieved 20% in such a period. Unlikely.

Also, what are your risks, and risk/reward ratios?

A lot of questions, but CFD's have been dangerous to my financial health in the past (because of my lack of understanding of stop-loss placement and over-extending my portfolio risk), and I am pleased to be finally watching a method work so easily.

Very good work, and I heartily congratulate you on this fine effort.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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maxboost
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Hi ingot,
I like to use eye ball targets for day trading. If the price gets too far away for the moving average I often find it's time to cover at least half of the position if not all of it.





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eric
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Hi Ingot, thank you for your post.
I have to add on to my selection criteria that I only trade the ASX 20. The have big daily volumes, ensuring a trade when needed. Besides that, they are unlikely to be on trading halt and then go for a huge dive.

As far as my subjective judgement goes, my stop loss is fixed to the slower EMA. However at times I take profits when I feel they are getting up to steep and flatten out. I do think that overall, this may have cost me money by leaving too much at the table. I am looking now at setting my target at 80% 2 ATR from the low of the day, however I don't think that any of my trades have reached that yet.

It is not easy to set a risk/reward ratio seeing I don't set targets.

Eric


Time frame: as long as it takes

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eric
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All my CFD trades and more are on my web site now


Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

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ingot54
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Hi Eric

I realise you have moved the trades elsewhere, but it is the method I am still interested in.

Summary:

CFD’s with ASX20

Selection criteria:

Use intraday chart - set EMA to 7 and 15
Set intraday chart to 2 minutes.
You may have to wait until about 10:30 am before both EMA’s show up.
If you trade after 11:30, set intraday to 5 minutes.
If after 1 pm use 10 min chart for stop loss

Buy if:
EMA7 crosses above EMA 15 and price is above both
AND
the share price has NOT increased by more than 1% since previous trading day
After your buy, set chart to 5 minutes interval.

Set stop loss one or two ticks below the EMA 15, trailing up as the EMA moves up.

Always sell at the stop loss, however should the EMA7 move up steeply, consider taking profit if the price drops below the EMA7.

There are times when the 1 minute EMA7 is above the 15, while at the same time the 5 minute price is below the EMA15 - in this case a buy is not triggered.

The commission is the killer so trade in big volumes.
If you want to make a reasonable profit, you have to increase volume.

Sell if:
Trailing stop loss is hit.
Or …
If today’s price range rises to or above 85% of ATR (16 days ATR)

I only use the 1 minute chart if I want to get on early in the day. Later I switch to 2 min and later still to 5 mins. If you stay on the 1 min chart, you get stopped out too quickly

As far as my subjective judgment goes, my stop loss is fixed to the slower EMA. However at times I take profits when I feel they are getting up too steep and flatten out. I do think that overall, this may have cost me money by leaving too much at the table.

I am looking now at setting my target at 80% 2 ATR from the low of the day, however I don't think that any of my trades have reached that yet.
}

The question arising is this ATR ... 16-day.

How do you display this on your charts?

Do you have the daily chart available on the CFD platform as well as your 1-5-10 min charts, and have the ATR 16-day loaded on that?

Are you looking at further refinements?

I assume that if shorting, the opposite setup occurs as for a "long" trade.


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

Post Number: 1947
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Saturday, October 20, 2007 - 08:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your charts Maxboost

I notice you mentioned "pivot" on the chart annotation.

Do you use pivot points for entry/exit as well as a visual of the price action relative to EMA?

I like Eric's method for its simplicity, and find that any refinements would need to be uncomplicated (ie simple to follow) and unrestrictive (ie still allow trades to "breathe" a bit).

It is consistent, and simple in its current state. And the win:loss ratio looks better than any I have seen to date.

Is this something you would agree with?


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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captain_chaza
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Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 12:47 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I admire your dogged determination and persistance Sea-cadet #54
"But is this what it's all about?

Salute and Gods' speed



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

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Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 01:50 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We each bring our own plate to the buffet, Captain.

On my plate you will see a mixture Crepes de CFD's, Index Profiteroles, and for the main course, Viande du Forex!

Add your own garnishing.

I think it was you who coined the phrase: "Put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket."

I see Dug has adopted something similar in his "Approach to Wealth" Volume XXIV thread: "Share "Trading" with less than 25 Grand" ... one of his best threads ever btw.

Great stuff.

But I have logged a lot of time over the charts Captain, since my disastrous voyage on 5th and 6th October 2005, when I hit a submerged shoal with too much sail rigged.

And on my second serious voyage to the Spice Isles on 11th May 2006, I alone escaped another wreck, and lived to tell the tale. I was afloat in huge swells for 5 days before I was found and rescued, with nothing but my dungarees with a hole in the seat (and my shirt in tatters) and a large Black Dog, to my name. (Spider would recognise that black hound - still keeps me company).

My journal tells me that had I allowed more plimsoll to be showing, and less sail, the ship would have cleared the reefs on both occasions, allowing my ship to limp home, battered, but grossly intact.

In current trials fully laden, my new ship is ready. She is a Forex clipper, used for position-trading the currencies of the western world. She is a fast little thing - and can add 4% to my working capital every week on average.

She is equipped with the latest in Navigational Technology - always sailing with the current - never against - and always with the smallest of sails, leaving room for the hoisting of a fine spinnaker when the favourable winds blow.

By the time I had sailed victoriously into Port on Saturday morning, I had wrenched 340 pips from the USDJPY - a voyage that had lasted several days, and one which required the assistance of two other vessels with spinnakers gloriously filled out, as we scooped up pip after blessed pip just for the asking.

My wonderful 3-D Rainbow charts give me the trends over several time-frames and the Multi-Stochastics indicator I invented for the fast ship does the rest. Tomorrow when back in my cabin I will introduce you to my Rainbow charts.

So ... why am I telling you this? Because as a dyed-in-the-wool leveraged tragic, I have found something to do while the fleet is out scooping up the pips for me.

Eric has kindly shared his method with us all, and I have seen the magic miracle of his strategy - just a small % here ... another % there ... and hey! Before you know it, the galley is re-stocked!

And thank you for the complement ... yes - I am dogged, determined and persistent.
JFK rose to be President of the once-mighty USA after his PT-109 was torpedoed - he spent 96 hours in the water.

I reckon I can achieve something too.

When I post my current charts for you, perhaps it will be clearer how I operate these days. It is fun!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza

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Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 02:22 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Please re-read all those text books and tell me they were not designed for Oxi-Morrons?

They lost me when they suggested to you to avoid volatile stocks

Crikey! What's it all really about?
If speed is not Everything?
Then What is it all about?

Safety is then Paramount?
Biting off more than you can chew is a NO NO!
IE: You should never put yourself in a position where you could lose more than you can put

It looks like a simple rule but at Sea nothing is Simple!

Salute and Gods' speed to both You and Your 1st mate Jossie


PPS
I hope you appreciate I barrack for you and Jossie louder than anyone else?

(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 21, 2007)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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ingot54
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Username: ingot54

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Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 02:55 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you for your kindness Captain.

The books are out the back providing fuel for the boiler. I no longer follow books - a few good ones are about, but the best will cost $150 upwards.

Experience is an excellent master.

One of the problems with CFD trading is the ridiculously large leverage they allow you to play with. Crikey! Can you imagine the cadets ripping their keels out on 200:1 or even 400:1? I am unsure what IG Markets offer but I think it might be 50:1 (someone could kindly correct that for me).

In Forex, 50:1 is too much. I go the other way - small positions, wide stops, tiny leverage, one sail ... or two when the wind is filling the sails. You can not do this with 200:1 leverage.

The (best) FX brokers generally allow you to choose your own leverage these days - 1:1 upwards. I trade with 5:1 or 10:1 but will never go higher than that. If I want more nitro underneath a strong move, I just open another position.

That way I get to keep my wide stops. The daily and weekly time-frames are where it is at for me, though I use the lower timeframes now to effect my entry and exit.

I am not skilled enough to day-trade the FX on 5 minute and 15 minute charts, so I just look for a calming in the strongest winds and put up one sail. When the gale resumes my ship speeds along with it.

Rather than change the tack of this fine thread, I will open another one in the Forex section where Mr Midshipman Lafee will be sure to see it and contribute of his excellent knowledge.

In the meantime, look for the thread "Ingot's 3-D Rainbow FX method" - I hope you can contribute there too - I am certain you will appeciate the instruments.







Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

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eric
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Username: eric

Post Number: 164
Registered: 09-2006

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Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 05:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ingot, sorry I did not log on for a few days, thus did not reply to your post.
Yes, I moved my cfd trades to my website, many more people are able to see it. I update it whenever I make a cfd trade.
To your question.
I use 16 day ATR, as shown on IC charts.
I use First prudential Markets as my CFD broker, they give me the Iress platform which gives me intraday as well as daily charts. But for daily charts, IC is far superior.
I can not display the ATR on the chart, I work them out on a formula EOD last night.

Yes, I always try to make refinements, but very subtle.
remember trading is 50% science and 50% art and 100% psychology.
I invite you to email me if you wish


Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

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