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Watch List Culling kate 43 3 15-Nov-07  03:20 pm

Archive through October 22, 2007 lafee 25 1 22-Oct-07  03:55 pm

Archive through October 19, 2007 eric 25 1 19-Oct-07  01:32 pm

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dug

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Monday, October 22, 2007 - 05:17 pm:

you aren't pulling a southern snide on me,isya lafee?
trying to get some brownie points with the Southern Coterie of Master Traders?
ohh,lafee sipping absinthe thru sugar cubes mightn't have yet given you a taste for bitterness,but i was as young and bushy tailed as you once.Didn't spend me nights doing currency transactions though,but I perpetrated,trust me I was around.

Now didn't I read months ago you were on the verge of getting married?Good Luck but you are about to go to levels that your ego better be prepared for.Your nights are no longer your Own,for starters.

So how about you go back to the Top of d'Board and BORE Ivan with this currency trading twaddle?

Happy Trading.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

captain_chaza

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Monday, October 22, 2007 - 08:04 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Dog Duggie

Do you have any Rules On Carrying CASH on small craft with a value of $25K
I floated a small yacht "The HMAS Tom Thumb" in late July to cover expenses
I have always found Small ships are a lot easier to handle in Rough sea and Gale
Believe me!
It's a lot easier to build up an average speed of ~100% /quarter in small craft than in the heavier displacements

Do you have any Rules On Carrying CASH on small craft with a value of $25K
I floated a small yacht "The HMAS Tom Thumb" in late July to cover expenses
I have always found Small ships are a lot easier to handle in Rough sea and Gale
Believe me!
It's a lot easier to build up an average speed of ~100% /quarter in small craft than in the heavier displacements

NB Please note that Captain Empty-Head has made all the Four mistakes any one can make at sea

HOISTING MISTAKES
HOLDING MISTAKES
WAITING MISTAKES
LOWERING MISTAKES

Crikey!I am still amazed I am almost on track for the 1st quarter

As you can see
I am now well cashed up for the next quarter/Leg

Do you have any golden rules re Cash Onboard and the proportion of sail you have presented to the wind at any given time?

IE: In small craft when do you find the best time to sail under a full Spread of sail?

Salute and Gods' speed

NB: FNT and Bon Voyage

HMAS Tom Thumb Captained by Captain Empty-Head START $30,000.00
FLOATED 24/07/2007
Data to: WEEK #14 22-Oct 2007
Code Final Final Starting No. Closing Initial $Gain Brkg Starting Running Totals
Date $ Price $ Price $ Change of Shares $ Position $ Cost $Loss $Incl Date
CUE 18/09/2007 0.235 0.245 0.01 25000 6105.05 5894.95 $210.10 39.9 3/09/2007 $210.10 $30,210.10
INP #2 1/10/2007 1.085 0.32 0.765 20000 21680.05 6419.95 $15,260.10 49.9 28/08/2007 $15,460.20 $45,460.20
GGP 3/10/2007 0.41 0.32 0.09 17000 6950.05 5459.95 $1,490.10 39.9 5/09/2007 $16,950.30 $46,950.30
EMP 8/10/2007 0.1 0.075 0.025 80000 7980.05 6019.95 $1,960.10 39.95 1/10/2007 $18,910.40 $48,910.40
ADY 9/10/2007 0.55 0.56 -0.01 15000 8230.05 8419.95 -$189.95 39.95 8.10/2007 $18,720.45 $48,720.45
CHM 11/10/2007 0.075 0.097 0.022 100000 7519.95 9680.05 $2,160.10 39.9 8/10/2007 $20,880.55 $50,880.55
CVI 18/10/2007 0.24 0.195 0.045 40000 9580.05 7819.95 $1,760.10 39.9 12/10/2007 $22,640.65 $52,640.65
CVN 18/10/2007 0.355 0.355 0 20000 7080.05 7119.95 -$39.95 39.95 8/10/2007 $22,600.70 $52,600.70
CMN 22/10/2007 0.175 0.17 0.05 50000 8730.05 8519.95 $210.10 39.9 8/10/2007 $22,810.80 $52,810.80
NDO 22/10/2007 0.32 0.35 -0.03 20000 6380.05 7019.95 -$639.90 39.9 8/10/2007 $22,170.90 $52,170.90
THX 22/10/2007 0.475 0.345 0.13 17500 8292.55 6057.45 $2,255.05 39.9 18/09/2007 $24,425.95 $54,425.95

Code Purch. Date Units Avg. Price Last % Chg Brkg $ Cost $ Value $ P/L
LAT 12/10/2007 110000 0.07 0.066 -5.71 19.95 7719.95 7260 -459.95
TGS 5/09/2007 12000 0.5 0.405 -17 19.95 6019.95 4980 -1039.95 CASH
onboard
Totals $'s Under Sail $13,739.90 $12,240 -$1,499.90 $40,685.05

SO MUCH FOR THAT STUPID EXCEL PROGRAMME!!!!

(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 22, 2007)

(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 22, 2007)

(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 22, 2007)

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

lafee

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Monday, October 22, 2007 - 09:11 pm:

Dug,

I'm about capitalising on opportunities in all markets. And I don't sip absinthe through sugar cubes, rather, I prefer the bitterness straight up. I quite enjoyed my pastis before my last meal at Tetsuyas. You should try it, it opens your taste buds up to all kinds of possibilities.

Some new material might be nice. I fail to see that the fact that I am not trading super and am forced to contribute more tax as an indication of my lack of relevance. New ideas are the catalyst for progress. We all have a lot to thank for the ego of the youth.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

sittingduck

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Monday, October 22, 2007 - 09:39 pm:

Dug,

Nope, not really a back tester. Though I do test my ideas before I use them by eye balling across a number of charts, but not a rigorous back test as some would do. It's in my capabilities to do the whole serious testing thing (degree in that computer stuff), but spend enough time in front of these computers with work and trading. I'd rather play with the kids.

Your question prompted me to look at my own trading results though (put objective figures where subjective feelings were making the comments). I found that my overall win rate (profit >0%) to be 35% (total trades 68), and my <50c win rate was 35% (total trades 28).

So there you go, I don't really have a small share problem :-) I have a win-rate problem.

I guess the reason for only 35% is probably because I have been using a breakout approach. But when I look over my wins I am not getting great results over the long term (or at least I know I could have gotten much better). A couple of good wins has made most of my money. I need to change my style, so your momentum suggestion still sounds good to me.

I do however note that I am currently on a 9 trade losing streak :-( and a number of those have been sub 20c, thus biasing my outlook. Last time I had a 9 long streak (this is my second in 4 years) I took about 5 months before I really got back into the market. It's been hurting the last couple of months when I see so many shares climbing 50-200% and I have hit all losers :-(

Cheers
Sittingduck.

coyotte

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Monday, October 22, 2007 - 10:42 pm:

SittingDuck .

is the Win% the problem or is the Target/Stop ratio the problem ?

with a 35% strike , wouldn't you be going for setups showing at least a Target of 2x the Stop ? -- that gives you odds of 2/1 -- a break even situation , so as to creep ahead you would need to either restrict plays to those with a tighter support level , hence tightening the Stop or with a higher Target -- either way you would be increasing the odds in your favor

a couple of "good wins" out of 68 trades I thought would have been around normal ie: > than the expected odds

(Message edited by coyotte on October 22, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

sittingduck

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 08:03 am:

Coyotte,

I think I have mentioned elsewhere in the forums that target setting is something that I haven't really worked out. So it could well be a part of the problem, and it's something I obviously need to work on. I guess I have been working on just letting my winners run (which is a good thing in itself).

There have been trades where I have been on a winning position and then let it slip. I need to look at these a bit closer, but I have a feeling they have climbed to >15-20% and then I haven't pulled the trigger as they pulled back, in the hope that they would recover again. It could be I am letting emotions overrun my profit stops, or that my profit stops are too slow at reaction. Bet it's the emotions though, I know of a couple recently where I let them run past where I knew I should have gotten out.

When I do an expectancy analysis across my closed trades (which I added to my spreadsheet I put together last night to get the win rate) I find that my expectancy is only 0.41R (where R = my stop loss risk). This means that I can only expect to gain 40% of my at risk stake on each trade (all averaged out of course). This may be a good sign that I need to consider targets a bit before buying. I also need to look at when I am buying. I suspect that it could be a case that I am buying setups not signals (ie my system for entry needs adjusting, which I am working on).

Cheers
Sittingduck

coyotte

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 09:13 am:

SittingDuck

out of curiosity , when did you first get onto NEC ?

If at around the 1.35 level, then you had a perfect trade setup --- which panned out to the Target
( the 1.87 was just above the flag's target )

1.35 Entry
1.20 Stop
1.85 Target

a 15c loss to a 50c gain -- they don't come much better than this .

know it's in hindsight -- but may pay you to take a closer look at this chart -- it was a classic Flag Chart with entry, stop and target well defined .

(Message edited by coyotte on October 23, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 09:42 am:

Charles,on Cash-
I try to keep the Compounding going ie try not to hold too much cash at any one time.
I think this is necessary especially with only $25k[unlike the $100k you voyage with]
I'm afraid I go blank looking at rows of figures as above.Just can't or maybe Won't concentrate.You know my father[who taught me a bit about shares]he used to be able to add in his head pounds/shilling/pence columns of figures and then put me on a calculator to confirm his total.Never when I said it wasn't added up to his figure by the calculator was I actually right.

Anyway,my commitment to compounding means that is one reason why I favour Pyramiding,money comes available I buy more of my established GOers.Due to my use of FA,Scenario and just getting d'Vibe on a share as well as it's TA,I try to do "Specialty" trading often in a limited number of shares not the wide field you follow,Charles.

I know Momentum Trading is suppose to be characterised by multi transactions,quick cut throat and being whip sawed etc but I reckon there is a calmer way to do it by

Defining at Watchlist Stage a much more "preferred" Status.

Eliminating Regret as a psycher to ya head.

Having pre-determined "prejudices" like I don't want to buy such and such type of Shares and never NEVER caring that such an action means you miss out on a go.

I am not Trading to earn a living/lifestyle.I more live on Capital not income so I play the Share Market for Capital Gains.Unlike many who have to extract a monthly nut/take/wage,I'm free to pit my reckonings against the Actual and see who wins.

but I ramble,gotta go.will make some reply to other last night posts later.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

sittingduck

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 10:57 am:

coyotte,

Not in NEC, just my pick for short term comp. So its not only rampers in there :-). I am using the comp as a test bed for developing my strategy.

That being said I had a buy signal from my standard system on the 18th September, so could have got in on the 19th at around 85c. Would have been a good trade to date. I also would be still holding it until yesterday. I put it into the comp based on it's pull back to the trend line and then a high close on Friday. Yesterday it broke down under the trend line, so that would be my first signal to consider a sell today using my standard system, if it moved down on open I would be out. I also use 2xATR or Countback trailing stops)

As I said, I seem to be picking losers and watching the good ones pass by right now. My entry system can produce a lot of potential buys, 5-6 per night at times, I can't enter them all, and sometimes they need a couple of weeks to actually start their true run. I pick the ones that look like they have potential to start a new run (MMA's bunched up) as that's where I seem to get the big hits. It also means that I need to react quickly when I get them wrong.

I've been more focussed on indicators rather than patterns, goes with my programming background I guess. It's not so easy to program a pattern recognition system, indicators are simple. I have some basic pattern understanding but know I could do with some more research. Again this is part of what I am developing and testing through the comp.

I do notice that NEC are up 5.5c at the moment, so maybe the support is there, and yesterday was just moving with the currents of the market.

I think that my breakout style has lead me through some vicious emotional periods, and its a hard way to learn the markets. Along with job stress, and having two young kids, I think a less "skin-of-my-teeth" style would be a good thing.

A tip for new players, breakouts look great, but they come at a cost.

Cheers
sittingduck.

coyotte

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 11:23 am:

SittingDuck

am a Guppy trader myself -- love his style.

but maybe your using the wrong approach -- if you have family and work pressures , wouldn't you be better off with a Trend Trading approach rather than a Breakout method, like after all breakout trading is just adding to the pressure .

Guppy's book " Trend Trading " may turn the situation around -- based on GMMA's and a sensible approach to Darvis --- guppy lays both methods out in this book -- pretty clear cut

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

sittingduck

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 11:29 am:

Agreed Coyotte, need to re-read Trend Trading. I do ride the trends, just seem to be adverse to getting in mid trend. "Have to get on as early as possible, or I miss out!!!" I know it's the wrong attitude, and it's part of what Dug is trying to point out with this thread. I think I am applying breakout entries but trying to ride trends, and the two don't necessarily work together too well (most of the time anyway).

Cheers
Sittingduck.

dug

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 11:32 am:

Are you talking ALL Breakouts,sitting duck,or mainly DownTrend breaks?
IMHO flags are good and better than Cup/Handles but of course Best when close to Blue Sky.
I'm working up a "System" that takes note of percentage gain since a Move commenced.I'm trying to apply this percent to guage points of profit that the earlier/"Long Term" holders are looking at,thus getting some anticipation of future selling pressure that MAY stall,reverse price.

It's a bit pie in d'sky but that's what I'm trying to guage-price where earlier Traders/Pilgrims will get motivation to turn paper into Cash,get their slice so to speak.
The Best Ones for applying this is on New Listings in the Run Up to the one year CGT "benefit".Despite the Super Law exemptions,this is still a strong motivation to those who initially bought into an IPO.

cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

peter1

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 06:12 pm:

Momentum: We need the solid moves to get the profits. How are we going to look for it during this thread? Then how are we going to trade it?

It is easily noticed after the event, like the "bugger I missed it" feeling that we all get when we see the daily breakouts on the EOD charts.

Do we stalk it using start gain orders once we see a chart with particular characteristics (triple resistance, higher lows, ascending triangles and or volume spikes).

Do we wait for the first day of breakout and enter in hope of further momentum to carry us along? (30d breakouts, news events, etc)

Do we wait for the first move to subside on reduced volume and get ready for the next leg? (flags, stirrups etc)

It is hard to do them all at the same time. Specialising has its rewards.

Edit: Sorry Dug, didn't notice the new thread.

(Message edited by peter1 on October 23, 2007)

adetsec

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 06:28 pm:

peter1
why don't you simply use stop buy orders to catch momentum?

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

sittingduck

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 06:47 pm:

Not breaks from down trends no. The break I am looking for is based around the high of the day of the cross over of DI+ and PI-, this sets an extreme point. If the close moves above this in the future, this is the break. I try to add some other indicators of direction (eg above a MA etc). I generally find that if a share has been trending sideways and has a tight range then it's more likely to be a good signal.

Here is a chart of an actual trade I made earlier this year (a very good one, especially when I picked up an allocation along the way as well @ 1.10 in August)

You can see the set up as the DI+ crosses above the DI- (sort of, the saving of the chart has mangled it a bit), then there are two breaks, the first isn't taken as the buy day has it dropping below the line (I work end of day, but can place orders during the day so usually place orders in the afternoon to confirm direction). The second is confirmed on the buy day by a gap up and climbing volumes.

Also the ADX is just starting to turn up as break 2 occurs. At break 1 the ADX is still heading down. Remember the ADX tells you the strength of the trend not the direction (+DI -DI do that).

The exit was interesting, the allocation was released on 15/8 (check XAO) so lots of selling of the parcels. Pushed the price down with the tide sucking it along as well and dragged it below the countback line. I held in expectation of a rebound and got out at 1.82.

This system works (it's taken me from $5k to $25k in just over 4 years), but I seem to struggle with it at times (like now).

Of course any newbies reading this, add a good dose of risk management and position sizing before following anything like this. As I have stated in above posts these trades are only working 35% of the time for me at the moment.

I will look for a failing trade to use as an example later.

Cheers
SittingDuck

peter1

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 08:17 pm:

Adetsec: I do.

The hard part is sorting a few good trading candidates from the rest of the market. That is why we need to cull our watchlists and Dug is already on to this topic.

We still need to know what we are looking for in order to trade it as well as we can.

coyotte

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 08:27 pm:

peter1:

i would presume it would first depend on :
1: the stock
2: the method it is currently being traded

If pattern / target trading at this stage of the trends development then generally better to make an early entry with a tight STOP -- u probably will have it right 50% of the time and with a tight Stop allowing a better than average Target/Stop ratio the profitable trades will easily cover the losers -- if you wait for confirmation , then your stops are going to be a lot further away hence reducing your odds or your advantage--- only catch is u will be taking a hell of a lot more trades so the brokerage can be a killer .

EG: if looking at trading a AscTri -- then instead of waiting for a close above the the upper resistance level , hop in at the lower forming trend line -- this is now the Stop --- a breach of this line is a close of the position , because the pattern is no longer valid -- but u have ended up with a near zero loss or maybe a small profit less costs .

sittingduck:

1: have u tried a 18d a ADX ?
2: are u using the correct tools for "breakout trading" ?

the ADX & GMMAs are both "trend trading " tools are they not ?

BBs at the standard settings, i would have thought would be far more useful for breakouts eg:
1: a breach of the lower band
2: up back into the lower band on heavy or spike Vol
3: close above Count Back to confirm .

ps: is that a flag forming on DYE?

if it is then your scans are bring up something invaluable
------------------------------------------------------------
just another none text book approach.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

peter1

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Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 10:30 pm:

Coyotte, Thx. You are right with the need for a tight stop, an absolute necessity for this style of endeavour.
Yes, we need a trading plan first, then we can find the high probability setups, then we can decide which stocks to trade. Dug and Capt.C are right to suggest 0.20 - 1.00 for a price range, price leverage is essential. I think Dug and Capt.C specialise in this market segment and I am interested in seeing how these two rascals sort the best from the rest.

IMO Dug is looking for an almost intuitive trading style to make this work. This usually evolves after much experience and a lot of work in trying to improve your performance. A successful result will require complete risk control and a winning psychology.

coyotte

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Wednesday, October 24, 2007 - 01:23 pm:

Haven't seen any mention of the money management method Guppy mentioned a few years ago --- might fit in here.

basically it was simply taking out the initial stake if profits exceeded 30% and letting the profits only run.
thus allowing a new position to be opened whilst the old one was still hopefully underway.

get three of these up and you have a new stake .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

sittingduck

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Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 08:59 am:

Coyotte,

Yes not conventional breakout, more early trend entry I guess. ADX is used to define that a trend is occurring (ADX>25-30). My entry is more based on the direction movement lines, and the ADX is often <25, you can see it at break 2 at around 18. As for 18d ADX check the chart, that's what I am using (normal is 14day), I have been using this for 4 years now, and can't remember exactly why I changed to 18 day.

Check the date on the flag, that was June and it moved on up again. From watching trades like this I have been getting a better appreciation for patterns.

Money Management on that trade. I didn't use the 30% point(would leave too small a position), but I did remove my initial stake after it had made a significant move to put me above my minimum parcel size. That money was actually then used to to help cover the allocation amount. I would have to say the trade has used enough bits of Guppy's strategies it could be used in his books. Why not let it run? Basically I was at a point where I held close to 100% profit at that point, there was an opportunity to buy another 4500 shares at 1.10 when the share was up over 1.60, and I needed the cash. I needed to do the sums and work out where the best value was. I believe I got that right.

Have to say posting the chart and explanation above has been very useful. On looking through some recent trades, I am seeing that I have become sloppy in my entries. Jumping the gun occasionally, not ensuring all conditions are met etc. This may well be the reason for my bad streak. I have literally gone from a number of good wins to a string of losses. While the market volatility of August threw my system, I was not getting any opportunities, and then I think I felt pressured to trade as I saw shares moving up but not getting signals. So I took the first possibilities I thought I saw, not really being as diligent as I should have been.

So back to Dug and his helpful post. Thanks for the help and advice so far everyone, but I am becoming conscious that my individual "problems" are overwhelming Dug's efforts to educate the masses. Hopefully my posts are helping someone else see some of the pitfalls of this game.

Cheers
Dave

coyotte

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Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 09:24 am:

Sittingduck

well that's hopefully what most of us are here for -- we may not be able to give you the answer , but with enough nagging we will sure as hell drag out of YOU !

That was sloppy on my part about the ADX -- you probably got it from Wilson .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

coyotte

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Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 10:31 pm:

I realize Dug is against using text book examples to trade .
but the underlying may be of use to some pilgrims.

I was trying to recall where i had heard and over looked most of the basis of this thread before --- It's our very own Daryl Guppy's earlier works --- in the original editions of --- Share Trading --- Chart Trading --- SnapShot Trading --- Better Trading -- it is exactly this approach that Guppy is specializing in and showing you the student how to apply these methods in the Small Cap Aussie sector, from memory even the original trading bank was $25,000.

Guppy is all "Chart Reading" you will find very little reference to T/A or Indicators in his works -- which sits well with this sector --- Support/Resistance Levels are important --- Trend Lines to a lesser degree and mainly used to verify the only two patterns used , namely Flags and Triangles -- the understanding of these two patterns and how and why they are forming is invaluable.

This where you can really pick up an edge, especially as more and more traders rely on programmable indicators , your going back to the pure " price action ".

Bill McLaren is also a Chart Reader but in a different sense and sector to Guppy .

As this is Chart Reading as opposed to T/A there is absolutely no need for expensive charting software , IC is all you need, I used it soley for many years before moving on to other software packages which for this style of trading are of no real advantage --- but to take full advantage of this method I do feel you need some form of a live feed and a fast trading platform -- or otherwise you could just place Pre-Orders - but then your in the trap of missing out on buy/sell by a 1cent or so

You can pick up all 4 of the above Guppy books for under $200 and the Spreadsheets are around $25 each (you need two and they work o/k in OpenOffice ).

.
but you have got to be on the ball with this style of trading -- these are not the slow moving whales like BHP or WOW their more akin to a rabbit.

for EG: -- was Trading AND as a Triangle -- took a few days to start to move then on the Open this morning it was all over in around 10 min -- came within 2Cents of the Target then collapsed and thats in a $1.50 stock --- these moves can be and are generally very fast and short lived in this area.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

julles

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Friday, October 26, 2007 - 01:02 am:

Interesting, conversation.. Julles

dug

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Friday, October 26, 2007 - 08:55 am:

No,coyotte,Australian books about our Market aren't my bug bear.It's those yank ones written about their market with not really a zot of relevance to Oz [size,share types etc etc]
I particularly loathe the quasi-religious ones done in California Mindset etc.
But as an example of Yank vs Oz is the fact that yanks can short a lot of shares so they advocate methods of turning on a sixpence long to short.They highlight reversal patterns to do this and "New" Oz readers,following this "system",can be shaken out of positions unnecessarily because Oz traders may not be able to Short on the signal so have no financial benefit that side of the ledger.

I waffle,I just don't think Yank Books are all that relevant.They were written with absolutely no conception of our market like if you asked a yank he'd think you were from Austria!

It's a pity you didn't mention the share name in your example,coyotte.What about if it hits the Target solid today/next week?
I take it as a Fact that no one is as stupid to be Desperate for Tips and put their money down on some share mentioned here with mere mention their only catalyst for Action.

I know some think they are so High Impact and adored/slavishly followed that they think Tips should be BANNED but usually coyotte such posers/posters....
well,better not open old wounds.

cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

coyotte

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Friday, October 26, 2007 - 09:13 am:

AND : Andean Resources Limited

I mentioned it in the Long Term -- AWB thread as a example of this style of trading on the day it broke out.
along with Chart -- Entry/Stop/Target.

It very well could go back up to target.
but under the trading plan I follow for Target Trading -- once target is within 3% then that's it . After that if I stay in the position or reopen , then it's traded in a different style EG : Trend Trade or Darvis methods -- could even form another pattern at this stage and become a short term Target Trade . --- depends on what price is doing

Cheers

(Message edited by coyotte on October 26, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

philr

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 01:50 pm:

Dug

Ok to make up for my bad behavior elsewhere on the forum I will give you guys some share resources that I have used that you may find useful.

http://asxnewbie.com/?page_id=167

Lots of great downloads on this page of ebooks etc on share trading. Included on this site is 'Trading on momentum' probably one of the best books I have read on momentum day trading.

Tip: Download these ebooks to a file on your computer by right clicking the link and 'save as' this will save on your bandwidth as you won't have to download them every time you read them.

http://www.tiny.cc/eyH9a

Lots of trading systems etc on the above link.

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

Want to know what the market is going to do tomorrow the link above is a good guide.

http://www.tradingaustralianshares.com/

Eric's new website some parts are still under construction but he already has some very useful info there especially on daytrading with CFD's

I guess these don't fit in exactly with the topic but I guess they will help traders whether they are trying to trade with 25 grand or less or not.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

philr

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 02:40 pm:

Here is another one

An online version of trading for a living by Alexander Elder.

http://www.users.on.net/~mindwarp/Alexander%20Elder%20-%20Trading%20for%20a%20li ving.pdf

Don't forget Tip: Download these ebooks to a file on your computer by right clicking the link and 'save as' this will save on your bandwidth as you won't have to download them every time you read them.

I'm also in the middle of reading 'Master the Markets' as mentioned on another thread its very good (just ignore the push to buy the software unless you want to buy it) and has some interesting information on how the market works.

http://www.tradethetruth.com/downloads.html

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

philr

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 02:46 pm:

Just a thought on this system trading i.e the heading of this thread. Has anyone done any research into the fact that the more people that follow a particular system the less effective that system becomes.

It may be worth developing your own system for that very reason and not telling anyone.

Another option find a popular system but make a change to one of the selection criteria to make it your own system. This would lessen the chance that someone else is waiting to pounce as soon as certain triggers are fired and wanting to buy or sell the same stock as you.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

dug

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 03:47 pm:

philr,you've committed a Heinous Sin
the kind that won't Be Forgiven!!
you haven't read this thread and it's adjuncts-

One thing anyone who even reads Charles understands being AGAINST CFD's is a DOCTRINE for the small time pilgrim.

Second Thing,well try and work out by reading the thread what other Beliefs you have blithely trod on.

but also Thirdly is your opening Assumption/assertion[maybe?] that Momentum is Best done by Day Traders!! THEY are the lowliest of the LOW,philr when it comes to Market knowledge,let alone Emulating.

But MOST of ALL,philr,hope you've checked with Colin about putting an Eric Link.There's been Blood on the Floor re this issue,My Blood Most of ALL!!

I reckon it's pretty "crummy" to come on this site,give a bit of information/contribution to it's treads and Then use the email functions here to gather d'Devotees to an alternative Site.
I know there's plenty of Precedents set by our esteemed Moderators what with their Main Mod "exchanging emails on findings by Fundamentals",just amongst the Chosen Ones,of course.No General Broadcast Live from this Site.Only to "Friends",Admirers.
Then,philr you have the Double Crossers.Set up sites,gather the Adherents and then just reprint the Waffle you originally put on here,set up some secret Cabal of Deigned who you'll speak to.

What has IC limited eric in doing?Is he trying to get material for some book,lecture circuit Guff?

i won't go on.
just here shaking my head dismissing Dispair.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

philr

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 04:20 pm:

Dug

I doubt Colin will mind me putting up a link to Eric's website its only a new site and I was just helping people view a few of the resources there. I have not referred people there as a commercial ploy which I think is Colin's main concern its just for the information that the site contains.

It does not contain a forum or anything like that so its not really a threat to IC if that's what you are thinking.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

dug

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 04:35 pm:

It's a "Threat",phil sheerly because it takes Info and POSTS readers away.
It circumvents Us Forum Members from Self Management of this Site Because members are diverting Input elsewhere for reasons of,perhaps Cowardice[?].

philr,you ever heard this saying?
All Communists are Socialists
BUT not all Socialists are Communists

apply that to they who DO GOOD and christians.

PhilR are you UP to d'TASK?
can DO It ALONE but prefer some company on the Purpose?

They who Isolate,phil.just gotta get TAKEN OUT.

started snifting,d'Beloved becomes agitated.
Off til Tomorrow.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

eric

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 05:58 pm:

Dug, I am not going to be drawn into a slanging match, my time is too valuable for that. However from memory, you had a bit of trouble on this forum before. Most readers of IC forum log onto many different web sites, at least I hope they do so. Whats the problem with that? Are we not supposed to learn? What are you afraid of? Do you think that reading somebody else's web site takes readers away from this forum? BTW, I linked my web site to Colin's site and to this forum, not to any others. So stop your whinging.
CYA

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

dug

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 06:34 pm:

Whingeing,Eric?
you are on a Course to DESTRUCTION,if you a mere psychologist comes that down pat observation;

Like have YOU only come back posting to this Site to Draw the no-clue DisPossed?
don't think your education/career for so long gives you some "advantage",pal.
there are some who KNOW.
who know your "failings" in the BIG scheme of things,how YOU were Allowed to Cloud any and all Issues sheerly because of YOUR own self interests....
are predicated by YOU making a Buck!!
Chum,it's YOU who is Actually Whingeing and petty ploys/observations Justifications just gives grist to d'Mill.
You aren't Really with the Programme,hey?
all you or nothing.

DESPAIR,that is d'WORD.

Feel Free,eric at least TRY.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

colin_twiggs

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 07:00 pm:

Eric,
Dug was not whingeing - merely drawing attention to the rules.
We try to limit links to other websites where the poster has any form of commercial interest. Which is why I let Phil's post through.

Dug,
I know you meant well. Just stay out of trouble.

Thanks,
Colin

tryhay

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 07:00 pm:

I don't see the point of confrontation etc. on this site: particularly when it seems the "Chart Forum Rules" do not appear to be applied as stated: <http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/chart_forum_rules.htm>

Briefly twelve dot point sum them up and it is clear that some have not cared to read and then apply them in the threads.

I have enjoyed the content of this thread but trust a cold shower brings it back to topic or perhaps in line with the first forum rule "Treat other members, communities and the forum with respect at all times" ~ even if at first that is hard to do. The other rules cover the points of discussion/conflict here....

I tend to think rules are unnecessary but this developing situation suggests any community needs them to survive

Nuff said?

More to the point happy trading.

captain_chaza

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 07:38 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Cadet Phil

I think what Sea-dog Duggie is trying to say is that

"No CFD trader has ever survived in the Long Term
"Not on the IC site anyway!"

There are plenty of ways you can lose on the Global Exchange?

Trading CFD's is the one I fear the most!

Soon as someone says trade the least volatile with tight stops
WE ALL KNOW THE OUTCOME

This is illogical seamanship
Designed for cash strapped Greedy Landlubbers
with little money and even less brain-cells

If they only realized the true value of "Set loss Warrants" in the early days and Pay the not so free Brokerage
I Know they would be a lot better off!

Salute and Gods' speed

Crikey!
What would you do after sailing for many years and accumulating a few Million Dollars

Would you then start buying CFD'd in 100's of $Million dollar lots?

I don't think so !

Safety as sea is ALWAYS PARAMOUNT to this Captain!

"The Wind Cals the Tune"
in Big Ships and in Small

Size is not everything!

Crikey!
Who are these CFD instruments designed for!!!
Not for me
and not for anyone starting out in any financial year
IMHO

captain_chaza

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 09:04 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Dog Duggie

As we sail threw these turbulent waters are you suggesting we sign a loyalty agreement with IC

I prefer to pay/subscribe for the charts

As for the chat forum
I can take it or leave it

The more I see the mental energies of some once great sailors dis-intergrate into "Has-Beens" and "Could-Have-Beens" and "Born-agains"
is the day I say
"Salute and Bon Voyage"

What a bloody waist of words that has all been???

"Salute and Bon Voyage"

PS "Talk is So Very Very Cheap!"

adetsec

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 09:13 pm:

captain_chaza wrote;
"Talk is So Very Very Cheap!"
Well that's rich coming from a verbose like you Charlie.

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

captain_chaza

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 09:31 pm:

After Considering all your illuminating posts

You can call me Captain!

Salute and Gods' speed

I look forward to at least one ILLUMINATING post from you in the future

I'll bet you don't have it in you!!

In starting off in publishing good posts on IC
Can I suggest you post your One Liners on the Yahoo Traders thread

If you look like an idiot
Sound like an Idiot
You are probably an Idiot

IE You cannot put a couple of sentences together!

Talk is Cheap!
NB: As Sad as it sounds
Bad Language/Bad English is only exercised by the very dumb and under-educated

Such is Life

(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 27, 2007)

adetsec

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 09:37 pm:

Charlie
You really are a sour old man.

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

captain_chaza

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 09:42 pm:

Give yourself another 5 votes

I am not impressed

jimdene

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 11:12 pm:

As a one liner keeping it brief, I have never felt that "Charlie" adds a great deal of help to those logging on to IC looking for help.
I am no role model in advocating CFD’s, they can no doubt be dangerous, but I don’t have time fiddling about with $1 stocks on my meager capital, and BHP and RIO, would be out of my class were it not for CFD’s, not that I trade them now, apart from a long term investment I made to my grandchildren. I am strictly picking off the highs of ASX200 nowadays using CMC CFD’s, I made $1000 from my $4000 capital recently, using MACD, that’s all. I couldn’t be bothered with trading shares with my meager capital were it not for CFD’s.
As for Dug’s post, I have never understood him even when he is trying to talk English

coyotte

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 11:36 pm:

Quote:
Just a thought on this system trading i.e the heading of this thread. Has anyone done any research into the fact that the more people that follow a particular system the less effective that system becomes.

It may be worth developing your own system for that very reason and not telling anyone.

Another option find a popular system but make a change to one of the selection criteria to make it your own system. This would lessen the chance that someone else is waiting to pounce as soon as certain triggers are fired and wanting to buy or sell the same stock as you.Phil
UnQuote.

.
I would very seriously question that logic in Share Trading
it certainly applies in situations like Thoroughbred Racing where you need to obtain the best price ( odds) , so the less people using the system the more chance you have .

Share Trading is different in the respect that the more punters there is following the system then by default the more likely there is to be a flow of money into that stock and hence keep it moving --- those following the system would be in the minority , with possibly a bit of early buying pressure and selling pressure at the Targets -- but if you are following the system you would be aware of this and act accordingly -- AND is a classic example of this .

besides there is just so MANY systems around today -- you would have to be taking in Fib Nos , Elliott, VSA , Swing , MA-Xs etc,etc, ect -- i cannot see where any one system would really make a great deal of difference if at all.

Where I do find threads like this extremely helpful is that they can make you reconsider your own bias -- for example i knew about using penny stocks for their leverage (Guppy ) but had never taken it seriously and for some reason (from the dim past) have mainly stayed in the $1 to $5 area and gone to CFDs for the leverage --- after reading some of the early posts in this thread and then rereading some of Guppy's stuff in this area then running position sizes through a spreadsheet the penny finally dropped

Thank You -- Capt and Dug

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

peter1

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Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 11:54 pm:

It is very disappointing to see this thread disintegrate like it has.

There was an understanding that this was NOT for the inexperienced. It was understood that the 25K represented only a small part of a trader/investor's total capital. This thread has nothing to do with cfds, this was made that quite clear from the start.

Dug proposed an interesting challenge to try and collect suggestions/ideas about how to get above average results with 25K. Surely an idea like this is interesting. Aren't you sick of the same old material that is constantly written? Don't you want to read something different?

It was designed to challenge conventional wisdom. Aren't we constantly reminded to be diversified, keep our risk low, don't plan for outsize profits because the risk of ruin is too great? Don't you want see somebody try something like this? We all had an opportunity to get involved, if you were interested.

This was one of very few threads in this forum that has started with constructive and sensible input from both Dug and Capt Chaza on a topic that they both enjoy, trading the fast moves in the small cap stocks. The Capt. has had some regular success selecting charts of stocks that move quickly. Aren't you interested in finding out what he looks for? Dug seems to have the knack of reading between the lines of a stocks fundamental info. I ignore the fundamentals but it is good to be reminded that they can be useful and helpful when deciding between stocks with similar charts. Aren't you interested in seeing someone demonstrate this? Why is it so difficult to keep a thread on topic and progressing to a satisfactory conclusion? We could have shown that Dug's challenge is possible or we could have shown that it is very hard. We may never know. It takes drive, passion for the topic and some committment to keep a thread like this going. Yes, the contributors need to see some feedback. They need to know that someone is interested. Lafee and myself were happy to contribute some ideas to keep the thread moving. A thread like this should not be diverted. It should be encouraged.

dug

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 09:57 am:

It's a pity that the editing function isn't available for longer than an hour.How about deleting the one liners and responses,Colin? Along with my outburst,of course and scrap jimdene's while you're at it.

coyotte- that "idea" of formulating ones own secret method is such a CON.For starters why didn't the author of it follow his own misbegotten advice and not publish it!!It's an idea that is used for forming Cults,makes pilgrims withdraw into thinking they are in or on the edge of Elite.Unfortunately Share Trading attracts a lot of Secular Gurus.

Really,I have the view that the Market is Chaos,unknowable truly untrackable so all TA,FA etc does is give some faith in a path you choose to follow,makes one Game to Plunge into a Dynamic,purposefully made Unknown.
That's why we constantly remind ourselves that we are only dealing in probabilities,possibilities never certainties.

coyotte,it[the Market] is not really able to be compared with punting/gambling even if one applies insights from these professionally done but you use any metaphor that works for you.

peter 1-Other than the "experienced" trader,I was hoping to get these concepts onto the "Beginner".Thought it may save them years,give them a jump up start,share the knowledge so to speak.
I hoped by using that line about segment $25k of a bigger portfolio to draw comments,make the relevance to bigger players so the actual small timers would be somehow "reassured".

I was horrified when a new member of tender years[under 20] jumped into the weekly contest with a SHORT.Obviously taking the Path of Gearing first up,possibly because of all the slick advertising, or getting the WORD of Professionals make their money this way so why not start with the Method of where you want/desire to finish up? Quite the bingle brain attitude,hey?

Anyway,let's hope we've made a start on dispelling some myths,encourage some fresh ideas,hone some attitudes that may be moribund/restricting and especially let's DUMP this attitude to secrets,
d"I know and you don't and I'm not gunner tell ya!!"

Think like That? and you really know nothing NIX.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

paddy_one

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 12:26 pm:

Why can't you people stay on subject???

Back to the topic on hand....

With only 25k, surely the first stop is selecting the stocks to trade. Scans will throw up all sorts across all sectors. I found when I first started trading that selecting stocks was an overwhelming task. It took me a while to figure out how to prune down to a manageable "quality" selection, and while these days I have various methods, my favourite remains creating a watch list from other brokers picks from the Smart Investor mag. The best one for me at present is the selections made for the VIP stocks for 2007 & 2008. I have revisited this list several times & taken trades as the signals & position size allow. It provides a range of sectors over a range of prices (TNE/IBA to WOR/BHP) that have been pre-vetted for good fundamentals. Plus of course for me, I can get margin on many of them.

P

captain_chaza

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 02:18 pm:

With only $25,000 to spend on sails
Safety at sea is Paramount

I would leave the CFD's for the Gamblers with <$5000
I would leave the Penny Dreadfuls to the same

So what is a Penny Dreadful?

A "Penny Dreadful" in the Good Old days were distinguished by the decimal point
This was a very simple test

But not anymore!
These days "The Simple" still seem to view a share by the decimal point
Nowadays they can be much easily disguised in many dollar terms but they are still "Penny Dreadfuls"

Maybe someone should draw a line in the sand and "Weigh each sail"
EG:
A penny dreadful is one with the $ Capitalization <$15,000,000 or <$20,000,000

Once this weighting has been completed we could then look at
Pink Sheets >than?

Red Sheets > than?
and maybe even the odd Green Sheet >than?

I would leave most of the greens and all the Blue sheets for those skippers in much larger vessels until our original stake has been multiplied by 10 fold

When this happens it is a lot easier to place larger funds into heavier sails

'tis Strange how most Landlubbers do this arse about!

Probably only because they think and have been brain-washed into thinking that there is safety in size and not for the practical reasons why some skippers hoist heavy sails

There are lessons to disprove this Safety issue /"Misconception" almost every week

This week please refer to AGL

Salute and Gods' speed

sittingduck

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 02:41 pm:

Captain,

Mind explaining Pink/Red/Green sheets? Or giving a reference for the uninitiated?

I don't think you are referring to sail hoisting aids.

Cheers
SittingDuck

dug

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 03:24 pm:

think i remember it's $2500,$5000,$7500 pink/red/green and the other sails go up in $2.5k increments with White $20grand.
As you see,the grading is by Market Capitalisation and I imagine $7500 is for $100 mil or so.
I'd add that there is "benefit" in "concentrating" on low Shares on Issue/Listed in these equations as in one's with say 100million Listed in the same Market Cap category are "superior" "better bets" than those with 500 million shares already issued.
I assert this because low shares on Issue is Fundamentally "Good".Those shares with a half billion or more on Issue spread the Momentum thinly.Have a tendency to "Flash in d'Pan",fall back/retrace and Wallow/Consolidate and give one no chance of Rise upon Rise happening.

Could be completely wrong,no evidence just memory that could be Selective.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

captain_chaza

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 03:37 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Cadet Sitting Duck

By definition a portfolio is a Number of sheets

In ship design One may have a White diamond Main sail
ie; a member of the ASX 20
One could also add another Blue Sheet
(In Landlubber terms ie; A blue chip in the ASX 300)
Same again for a Green chip in the All ords

Red and Pink sheets are those that are all out of the All Ords but are potential aspirants into this elite class

I try to avoid the Penny Dreadfuls in the early days
but I am weak!

I am a sucker for Maidens and the promises of great fortunes at times
This is my weakness!

What I am trying to say is You wouldn't put the same amount of money on a EMP as you would on a BHP??

ie: Would you place the same bet on a long shot at the races as you would a well into the red Red Hot Favourite

It is just simple Money Management
BEFORE all the hassle of designing Tight and Loose stops for each and every weight of sail available

Salute and Gods' speed

Crikey!
You wouldn't design a stop loss for a Volatile member of the ASX20 as you would for a non-volatile member of the ASX20
Would you!

(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 28, 2007)

coyotte

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Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 09:05 pm:

Dug :
did you see the " QUOTE " -- " UNQUOTE " in post 285 ?

it is the statements within the Quoted area i call into question .

but i was under the impression this thread was about "Approach " rather than " Systems "

But as to why authors publish their findings on a profitable system ? -- well this can be explained by the fact that whilst researching one can come up with workable systems which are probably marketable -- that dosn't mean that the FINAL SYSTEM has been sold but only parts of it's development --- but as with all SYSTEMS in any form of gambling/speculation , they are only valid for the market and market conditions that they where developed under --- hence where in the long run " Discretionary " will always out perform .

.
gambling lore has no place in the markets ??

Suppose most readers would feel more comfortable with the word Speculation -- but the bottom line is it's the same thing .

first define what gambling "is" -- it's about ODDS -- ODDS are about Probability

Pokies , Lotto Players etc are under odds players .
Card Counters , Pro Punters etc are over odds players

one could hardly compare in a Casino (over odds ) -- a Pokie Player with a Card Counter -- they are worlds apart but still both classed as Gamblers -- even the Casino is classed as a Gambler --- this type of comparison is just bloody stupidity . ( bloody referring to it's origin )

The whole concept of modern day Trading has it's roots in Gambling Lore, going back to the 18th century when roulette players developed the Betting Bank and STOP concept based on the ODDs that they played . --- this was further developed when the US Punter Pittsburgh Bill took his betting sheets to a Accountant and the Percentage Loss to Odds was refined -- hence the 2/1 odds to 1% loss and 1/1 to 2% loss of bank in punting -- this 2% loss was nicked by the Stockmarket Players.

The concept of Target Trading comes back to ODDS.

a 10% Stop to 20% Target is giving odds of 2/1 -- BUT the moment you increase the STOP % then the odds have increased against you --- your doing what a Pokie Player do'es , betting against yourself or taking Under Odds .

Unknowingly most Target Traders are also applying a concept with it's roots in Punting , namely "Overlay Betting" which was developed by our own Aussie Don Scott back in the 70s.

Basically it's securing odds that are better than the Rated Odds .

Where this comes into Trading is in the situation of say a Asc Triangle -in a uptrending stock within a bullish market .

The probability of the Triangle reaching the target is generally accepted as around 66% and the mean of Triangle targets would be 100 %.

So you have a quite common play of odds of 1/2, with odds of 1/1 on offer.

with that setup in theory over say 99 trades at $1,000 at risk (stop )per position and with a $10,000 or less position size

$99,000 turnover
33 loses at $1,000 = $33,000
66 Wins at $1,000 = $66,000
Profit on $99,000 turnover = $33,000 or 33% I would have killed for that when I was punting -- on average 10% " profit on turn over" was the best you could expect for the long term

the problem would seem to be that most are so blinded by their prejudices towards gambling they are throwing the baby (odds) out with the bathwater ( unders gambling)

And yes this do'es belong here in this thread -- it's a non-text book proven method that has not only worked in the past , but in the present and unless the laws of probability where thrown into chaos, will continue to work well into the future .

Cheers

PS:
did anyone pay attention and notice the relative position sizes between the Punter and the Trader and potential loss --- mmmm whom's the real Gambler ?

.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Monday, October 29, 2007 - 02:06 pm:

Yes coyotte,knew that you were quoting philr and then replying in the negative on Keeping Secret one's system as useless whatever.
I was trying to thank you for saving me the bother of formulating a reply to philr etc blah.
Excellent explanation of why you see speculative/gambling odds as a "parallel" but there is a point that shares aren't a win/loss proposition.They go sideways too.
There's something in say Horse or Cards that has limited options[the field and 52cards in a deck]which differentiates these from Share reading.
There's that getting the best gambling odds is done on multi "transactions" in an Hour.Odds set by Casinos favouring the House being got round by card counting,does this really relate to the Share Market.

but coyotte,I don't know too much about Professional Punters especially,handicapping and all that jive.I just played cards,show poker,in betweens.
Couldn't stand the horses after a childhood of Saturday Afternoons hearing those really irritating race callers and I actually did about a month of "BookKeeping" an illegal casinos books.Oh and I went to Sydney a few times to play in theirs.Illegal Casinos were much better,you got Free drinks served by spunky chicks! Never been to a Legal One since.

Anyway,if it works for you,coyotte Great.I just don't want to get my head around your posts on the topic.Hopefully someone of similar experience to you will debate,affirm or deny your points.
regards.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

philr

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Monday, October 29, 2007 - 03:25 pm:

I'll stick by my assertion that the more people in a system the less effective it is.

The reason is if your system triggers at a certain level unless you have a buy already in place the price could race past your entry point if there are lots of people waiting at that price.

I am not saying that you should be a complete secret squirrel about it just that if its a widely used system it could be less effective if lots of people use it.

What if it triggers a sell then there is a panic to get out. Obviously not good for you.

I know Dug uses the tell everybody everything theory. But I just think your own system may be more effective. If a share is going up and it hits your system parameters and if its rising for the right reasons you don't need another big crowd jumping on board at exactly the same time as you.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

eric

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Monday, October 29, 2007 - 07:53 pm:

Phil, I don't quite agree with you. There are 1000s of traders in the market, most of them using different systems, different entry points, different exits. The only similarity I see is those whole numbers, like full dollars, or 50 cent levels, etc. A lot of amateur punters put their stop losses or their entry points there. I am sure we all know to keep away from those.Otherwise, the market is too much of a chaos to catch you out because they know your system. Yes, obvious support lines and resistance lines are a point in mind, but of course they are known to all experienced traders.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

coyotte

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Monday, October 29, 2007 - 08:25 pm:

if anyone cares to look deeper into post 287 , they may find that the Capt's question/statement about STOPs may be answered -- it depends on the method of plays "odds"

the below is related to the Trading Bank and the Max Allowable loss -- so you must know the success rate of the method in play for this position - EG : Asc Triangles in a Bear Market have a lower probability than in a Bull Market.
.
So the STOP is Variable depending on the Method and not simply a one size eg:2% fits all .

I no longer have my old odds formulations , but i know the following where the the main ones -- you could probably adjust as required with a spreadsheet .

33 % Strike Rate = 1%
50 % Strike Rate = 2%
66 % Strike Rate = 5%
80 % Strike Rate = 10%

maybe some reader of this thread in the far dim future will have a " AH AH !! " moment .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

philr

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Monday, October 29, 2007 - 08:28 pm:

Eric

Fair enough we are all entitled to our opinion on this subject I mainly just put it out there as a discussion topic as I was interested to find out other traders views.

I think getting out may be the worst part of a commonly followed system as a lot of systems say put your stop just under the pivot point. Now if as they say in "master the Markets" the big trades can see all the stops they are probably going to drive the price down to this level to catch a big swag of stops. Now as an example maybe your better off having your own level just higher than the recommended level so that you don't lose a heap of money in slippage if your stop is hit.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

coyotte

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Monday, October 29, 2007 - 09:11 pm:

Philr :

I read Master the Markets around 12mths ago and queried Nick Radge on this very subject of Market Makers in the Ozz market .

his reply was yes they do exist here , but nowhere to the extent or influence as in the US markets , where they are required by law to maintain a orderly market , such is not the case here .

have a look in the Reviews section on this site - you may find some useful info there regarding this book and software .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

hibikijoji

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 07:24 am:

Coyotee:

I for one agree with the % you posted. From my experiments, I've found that about 12% is where there is a difference between a consolidation and a trend.

I still hold to the 2% rule though.

I was scribbling down a formula that relates to this and the 2% rule:

if v:= accepted variance per share
and r:= accepted risk of loss in total capital
and n:= number of unique types of stocks then;

then

n = v / r

so in the case of v = 12%, r = 2%, then:

n = 12 / 2 = 6 unique shares.

Of course , this formula does not take into account of fees and charges arising from trading.

Disclaimer :
The views expressed here are for experimental practices only. They have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.

Please consult your broker or financial adviser before making an investment decision.

philr

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 08:52 am:

coyotte

Thanks I've looked at the reviews section and found that information interesting.

Do you know if the larger traders in Australia know where all the stops are. This would obviously be a big advantage to them when trading.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

ohkoolnutz

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 08:53 am:

if v:= accepted variance per share
and r:= accepted risk of loss in total capital
and n:= number of unique types of stocks then;

then

n = v / r
so in the case of v = 12%, r = 2%, then:
n = 12 / 2 = 6 unique shares

This may work for investors but has basically no value to a trader and the reason is that you assume that each stock chart has this mysterious 12% "safety net drawdown". I looked at thousands of charts and I can tell you each stock acts differently and you need to calculate your risk on each specific play as the play comes alive.

Currently I risk a set dollar amount per play. This figure is my day job daily earnings times three. It is 0.4% of my capital at this point in time. I then fill this risk in between my entry price and stop loss and take the trade as the signal comes.

I don't have backtested systems but if I had then you could take this static risk amount and multiply it by the percentage success rate of the play.

If your static risk amount is $500 and you had a play that says will succeed in 80% of its cases you will risk $400. If the success rate is 50% you will risk $250. This should allow you to keep your risked capital in line with the expectancy.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 10:31 am:

We've already racked up enough posts to be Archived.Do people actually go back into Archive Posts or are they more inclined to just get some ideas from current/recent posts?

This talk of Master Traders in Oz would surely be a part of Top 100 shares?
Small shares are mostly manipulated by petty spivs,having a go,putting out Ramps in Chat Rooms in an "organised" manner,frankly just the mates of Directors pulling some scam on the Directors' Behalf.But these are not so much a problem as "Amateur Thinking Processes".
but I won't insult philr!!
gotta go but any feedback on where this thread is progressing to would be appreciated.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

hibikijoji

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 10:56 am:

okoolnutz,

From what I understand, there is a significant difference in our technique.

For me, I collect shares that have a similar characteristics, hence that 12% holds for most of them. Whereas you have the flexibility to select any share and maintain the same amount of risk. That is interesting.

eric

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 11:14 am:

Phil, we don't have market makers as such, nor specialists. Therefore I don't believe that our big boys know all the stop losses. They of course wil know where most ppl set their stops, e.g. resistance etc.

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

dug

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 11:19 am:

ohk,
Could your Stops be too tight?Unless you are picking entry points on shares close to "perfectly" seems to me you are operating a system that the slightest timing error would have you Out.[I'm calculating your stops are ALL less than 5% maybe even 2% of your position size?]
Can you provide a Dollar Figure Stop Loss to a Position size? That would clear it up or at least provide a basis for discussion.

Hibi-have noted your Indicator Thread investigating the same as here.Haven't been able to respond to you there because it's a bit too much Maths orientated for me to comment on but just wanted to give A GoodOnYA to you.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

ohkoolnutz

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 01:21 pm:

I don't have tight stop losses or loose stop losses. I have stop losses based on the trading scenario. The risk is always the same dollar amount.

If the risk is $500 and I play a stock at $40 with a stop at $38 I buy 250 units for $10,000.

If the risk is $500 and I play a stock at $1.01 with stop at $1.00 I buy 50,000 units for $50,000.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 02:49 pm:

you write really clearly,ohk but it seems to me,you seek perfect entry or it's No Go.
Are these stops activated intraday?even if they happen next trade or so after you buy?
Don't worry that I'm going to come the convince you're wrong or anything.Just getting some info on who I'm up against out on the Floor.
A$50grand buyer of a $1.01 stock,hitting me Depth Watching and then being followed by the same $ transaction [pretty much]going 98cents can give me some consternations,concerns,readings but if I can put it down as a play by one of your calibre and experience,ohk?
well,it'll help me rest easier.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

lafee

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 06:56 pm:

You guys are trying to link a cause/reason to predict at a time where specifics mean least. All bets are off in a trend. Trying to determine how much room to give a trade is very hard indeed.

You could choose to be prepared & ready to loose the entire amount. We are talking about very small stocks here. If you buy $1k (assuming 25k bank). I'm sure you could do well. And you don't have to worry about being churned by your broker.

The probability of a forecast coming true, as time passes decreases exponentially. By adding a trailing stop or even any type of stop you are adding complexity(unpredictability). It makes forecasting so much more difficult.

You do not want to be shaken out of the big winners. A little bit of capital can make a lot in this game.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

hibikijoji

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Tuesday, October 30, 2007 - 10:34 pm:

Lafee:

Not as bad if you can pick stocks that have similar conditions. there is a significance between consolidation and trend reversals. In any case, I don't forecast - I manage money and stock portfolio.

coyotte

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Wednesday, October 31, 2007 - 08:18 pm:

rereading Guppy's Better Trading and just come across the section where he is demonstrating different methods of protecting Profits .

The section which may be of interest to some , related to this thread is FAST MOVERS -- naturally he's talking about Rally and Momentum trades , but along with that he gives the example of a 0.26 Stock .

instead of trying to use a technical approach he recommends
using a Dollar at Risk approach -- mainly " The Amount in $$s Risk at the Entry " ie: Entry to Initial Stop in $$$ amounts -- is the $$$ Amount at Risk at the Current High -- a Close below this level triggers a Exit on the following Open.

EG:

Current High : 0.58
Position size: 400,000
Entry Price : 0.26
Total Cost : 10,400
Entry Risk : 2,000

Max Profit Value : 23,200
Max profit at Risk : 2,000
Protect Profit Value : 21,200
Exit Price at next Open : 0.53

he advises against halving the $$s at Risk as this can lead to whipsawing.

have never tried it , but do'es seem a clear cut approach to a problematic area in these type of trades.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

hibikijoji

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 05:58 am:

Coyotee:

Sounds interesting. Can you illustrate it with a real example?

dug

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 08:25 am:

Yes coyotte but the question arises if one is more prepared to protect capital using a stop but when it comes to losing a similar amount of Profit?Will one really leave such a Profit Gain behind?In your example that's 25%.
I read once that A Method was to not institute a trailling stop at all.Once established above Break Even one just let it Go.The author said that was assuming risk by protecting capital but his "trick" was not to protect profits but let them run.He was Yank though and may never have dealt with an Oz penny which can "Flash" in a fortnight back to where it started from.
......................................................
Hibi-CVI is a current example.look at it's chart and see where you would have exited or if you would have.
Assume you bought in the last month or so at 16cents ish.
It's a Hindsight exercise so you have to be honest with yourself but particularly note the Gapping aspects and the percents earned in short time.
there's a CVI thread if you wish to comment.

cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

coyotte

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 09:16 am:

Dug :
This is in no way suggesting that any one method is superior over others -- but I try to stick to the rules for that particular trade when opened : AND for example was a Target Trade -- Target reached -- Trade Closed -- in hindsight would have been better to hold on , but that then is not Target Trading .

Comes back to what you are doing and what your comfortable with .

For a total contradiction you have two top Aussie Traders - Guppy and Radge disagreeing on Entry / Exits triggers -- Guppy on the Close -- Radge on a breach -- the main thing as i see it that your approach is consistant.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Just to tidy up my last post -- KAR.
presuming a $25,000 bank with a max of 2% at Risk

Trade Based on a Breakout Gap and Count Back High Clearance -- Entry the following day with Initial Stop at Count Back Low.
Position Size = 1100 shares @ 2.57 = $2827 with a Risk of $495 + Costs and Slippage.

Have included Guppy's Illustrations --- as stated have never used it , so I just presume this what Guppy's rattling on about .

.

(Message edited by coyotte on November 01, 2007)

(Message edited by coyotte on November 01, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 09:53 am:

Basically Stop Loss Profit by using your loss % is a method to "get round" Guppy's basic Countback Line[CBL]Doctrine.
Volatility/Day Trading Range has suddenly grown so CBL system can't cope satisfactorily in this case.
Fair Enough,no system is written in Stone to slavishly follow in a Market that calls the tune,is Dymamic,has so many alternative scenarios to cope with.
CBL is simple enough for anyone to follow.Works as good as most and even though well known doesn't seem to be a self fulfilling theory like we know about it but not all follow it,destroy it's credibility[that's for philr]

cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

ohkoolnutz

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 12:07 pm:

KAR is not a very good example since it had 10 consecutive days of "higher low". A stop placement underneath the daily low would have been more practical after day 7 of "higher low" was reached. A $3.77 exit could have been a possibility.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

coyotte

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 02:15 pm:

yeah Dug
Guppy is saying that TA such as CBL etc is not really suitable for this type of trade .

all to his own poison i suppose .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

coyotte

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Thursday, November 01, 2007 - 02:30 pm:

ohk

WELL POST IT UP -- WITH EXPLANATION !

it's only a example of the method as requested

otherwise i would have been out at 4.01 -- why? -- it was the high .

Trading is a snack in hindsight .

.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Friday, November 02, 2007 - 02:51 pm:

now you're getting d'Picture,coyotte.
"They" have every right to point out a Better exit according to theory but "They" get all defensive/precious with any questioning[let alone going Big and in Colour!!]
Very grey are they,hey coyot?
no elaboration on this real close stop method comes back to me from ohk,he of the slightly obscene tag,or is it because English is his second language and he's using nut=scone like head?

I reckon it's all in that philr philosophy of keep it to yourself,"ohhh I've got a Secret Method" they whimper.
Coyotte it's all the Captain's Fault so let's SICK him!!
you first.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

dug

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Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 12:12 pm:

hey resillient 1,
see you're chatting with the Daily Bread Millionaires about going "exclusive" on small cap shares with FA potential,care to chat about that here?
It's all too Righteous down there,They just got too much Bread[$$]let alone this Old Bloke Preaching,Setting the "poorer"[multi 100kers] on the Right Proper Course palaver.

Don't ya just Love how they go Oh Yes,Some Small Caps are Excellent but Don't Touch them til d'Stock Doc tells ya to!!Bit late by then,hey resillient?No wonder THEY so oddly have Insurance Companies as Corner Stones to THEIR Portfolios!!

For a start THEY pontificate on Facts,so called Facts,gleaned on the Bloody US Market.Oddly the US don't Study/Give a Toss about under say $3 shares.To them that's Bucket Shop Territory so when they say there's some Flight to Quality,Yanks wouldn't Consider even BHP as an example.

anyhow,don't you think FA in small caps has a wider dimension than what those taught in Business School consider? like There's fundamentals of Potential,one can get a Handle on way beyond Earnings Rates Formula.
cheers.

(Message edited by dug on November 04, 2007)

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

ohkoolnutz

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Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 07:34 pm:

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Monday, November 05, 2007 - 02:28 pm:

picture tells a 1000 words but if in the case the share closed lower in any of the days,would you rebuy in on a higher high,ohk?
or would it all be over because of the lower low?
also can it be assumed that any trade at low,you have some preset order to activate your sell?

cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

ohkoolnutz

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Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 11:55 am:

The way I see things 'trading should be like a flow chart of rules'.

All cash is to be deployed to new scenarios and cash is independent of any position you have or just closed. Past profits or losses do not have any effect on entry decisions.

There are entries and there are exits. I have looked at thousands of charts and I can't make out if a specific entry is followed by a specific entry.

Therefore I state that each entry can be followed by each exit. If supposedly there are 10 ways to enter and 10 ways to exit then there are 100 combinations. Entries and exits are therefore independent.

In this case there was an entry made due to some entry rule. It doesn't really matter what it was. It also doesn't matter what price you paid as long as it was the price stated by the entry rule.*

After you have your position you monitor your ten exit rules. Exit rule 8 states:

Rule 8 overrules all other rules except if (fill in quirky deviation). If you have a position in stock X and this stock has shown seven consecutive higher or even daily lows then your stop loss after day 8 should be the last daily low.

*After you exited you will find out if your entry price is lower than the exit price. One can imagine that with 100 combos you have situations where you follow the system but end up with a lot of even or small losses because the entry and exit rules lined up this way. I personally have a lot of trades where I was in profit for a while but sell out at a loss (hopefully before the losses get bigger). Emotionally these are difficult to manage because you lose money but you made the right decision.

Disclaimer: It's probably good to state again that I am still a break-even trader. This has lasted now for 18 months. It's a tiring exercise but my urge to get it right is greater than my frustration.

---
ohk

Lies, Damn Lies and Technical Analysis

dug

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Tuesday, November 06, 2007 - 12:52 pm:

well that's progress,ohk.
A method for when shares you hold go into a 8 or more Green Candle Pattern to take profit,manage the trade etc.
Me and I think ol Chuck get nervous on a Rising Three,we get distracted by has this one done it's dash so should/could this other one on the Watchlist Shaping be a Better Go?
Over Trading,the cardinal sin of d'GOer.Chuckles wouldn't probably admit to it but me,a lesser light has to be reminded of it everyday.
I'm not in the Market for Thrills.More Boring it becomes the Better at It I am!

My father always said-All work is BORING [even Brain Surgeons are bored by life'n'death work.]
he said it everytime I swore I'd never stay in the Public Service[like he had]that I wanted a more "interesting" career like say Lion Tamer.
Very depressing was my father but right in his thinking.One is most effective when solitary pursuits are reduced/controlled to the level of Boredom.
or so I reckon Now.
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

coyotte

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 11:33 pm:

Just chewing a few thoughts about these Penny Momentum Trades over .

Looking at a some of these trade's charts , there seems a I've seen something like this else where thingo -- well yes -- Commodity Futures --- they seem to have a similar "natural volatility" --- just maybe Share Trading methods are not what is called for , but Futures Trading methods may be more applicable .
There is a heap of this stuff along with FX trading freely available on the web.

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

captain_chaza

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 07:30 pm:

The first thing to determine when sailing The Penny Classes of sail is ask "What constitutes a Penny "

As we can clearly see in this weeks Regatta sails with the Capitalisation of only $6 Million to $1,500,000 Million have been entered

As you will see
Safety in size does not work

Do they all belong to the Penny Classes of sail
Or are they Pennies to put some sort of spin on the XAO and show she is indeed an all-rounder and a true measurement of the market condition?

Crikey! I wasn't born yesterday!

Which are Sea-worthy?
Which are not?

During the 3 voyages of the HMAS INCREDULOUS it become known to me that there are many classes of Pennies

I first started off calling them all RED and sized the cost of sail @ $5000 each
ie: I sized the loss of a RED sail to $5000 Maximum

Then my Bravest and Most Loyal Sea-Cadet Braveheart (also an mple cook) came up with the idea of hoisting even lighter weighted sails than I was accustomed too

Well! I was flabber-Gasted
Her results were so spectacular in this Penny-Farthing class I coloured them purple and sized my Risk to only $3000 per sail

Years later the Yanks worked out what we were doing on the Good ship Incredulous and called these really light sails PINK Sheets and as they always do
"Called it their own"

After that by far the most important aspect in planning a cruise is to determine in LAND-SPEAK /Landlubber language whether you are a Trader or an Investor

I consider myself as an Investor and not a Trader
An "Investor" Compounds his Winnings
A "Trader" merely accumulates his winnings

The seaman works out much many sails to present to the Wind at any given moment

ONLY when this is done successfully will you ever discover all the LIES LIES and DAMN LIES you have been fed as Good Tax paying Copybook/Greedy Landlubbing Investors

EG:How many of you out there still believe it pays to not rock the boat

TBC maybe one day?
Crew required to continue the fight against these Greedy Lying Landlubbing Cheats

Salute and Gods' speed

(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 20, 2007)

(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 20, 2007)

dug

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 10:29 am:

Captain,
Like me are you finding it a bit Dull around here?
All this Index Trading is King "stuff" and not much if any advancement of ordinary share "working".If they don't have a chance of Immediate Gratification,a whizz up a 20point run every 20minutes,they just don't seem to want to know.

Personally I really think it could be because they want to be Impressive at BarBques,in bars or even Hamburger Joints,hey Charles?
What do you do? they're asked and they reply Oh a bit of Day Trading in the ShareMarket.
The BarBque "set" are my equivalent to your LandLubbers!

Anyway,I don't follow the Yanks too much but...well aren't those Pink Sheets you mention also called Bucket Shop Slop or something in that Land of the Free?

I've been "investigating" the New Ramping Styles.Elsewhere of course.This Forum doesn't give much opportunity to see much New in action or practice but there have been some "developments" in Ramping/Mis Information Diseminating so I'll get around to telling you about it Charles soon so you can get Up2Date.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

coyotte

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 11:23 am:

Well Dug that may be the future of trading

If you go to the Kitco Forum during the US session u will find around 1/2 dozen posters on a rotating basis who regularly post up their trades live --- with Entry/Exits pre-posted --- they may take around 3 to 6 trades during the session ( if targets are hit )and avg around a 60%+, strike rate --- they come in just above the STOP and pull out soon as the targets hit ( no o'nite holds)-- If they are actually taking these trades then they would be making the average Share Trader look very sick indeed .--- they wouldn't be the barbeQ set rather the Ritz

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 11:45 am:

I'm not doubting,coyotte,that it's a real fast way to make money.That it is both Challenging and Rewarding etc.
Especially to you,coyotte who has found inspiration from your previous/current fascination with Horse Racing.

It's just that I do not find prediction all that "unwieldly" in what I see as Chaos.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

coyotte

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 02:09 pm:

I did not mean it that way Dug --- where I'm coming from is maybe more like the 80/90s -- FA vs TA --- maybe those of us that learned our craft during the 80/90s are going to become EXTINCT by this new generation of young calves & cubs --- what the FAs considered dangerous back then and done to us -- We are now doing the same thing to this new generation --- I think it's well and truly past time to reevaluate our stance --- or be left on the side lines.

(Message edited by coyotte on November 21, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Post Number: 2638
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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 03:24 pm:

Oh that's what you meant coyotte.
The Generational "Warfare" where we are now d'Oldies just trying to input to them younger for their "Welfare".

Now,truly for Real,coyotte count me in on that Act.

Every Day it seems now I see concrete evidence of d'Dumbing Down.I don't just mean the "Ferals".I mean amongst the Best and Brightest.

In fact I would be so bold as to say it [d'Dumb Down]is rampant thru all the current generations but the over 60's have an "excuse" of being out of school by 14years old as a matter of course in the past.

but the "younger" say under 50?well,that got real poor,in fact experimental techniques taught to them from kindergarten up.Got cotton-wooled,no Self Reliance,just a dream of a better life is by making more Money Quick as Possible then you are Really able to Live preferably anywhere but where you are now.

ohh you've got me going on the inner journey,coyotte that has no destination.
better go have a drink with the wife and stare at the rural views.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.