Share "Trading" with less than 25 Grand.
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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2432
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 22, 2007 - 05:17 pm: |  
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you aren't pulling a southern snide on me,isya lafee?
trying to get some brownie points with the Southern Coterie of Master Traders?
ohh,lafee sipping absinthe thru sugar cubes mightn't have yet given you a taste for bitterness,but i was as young and bushy tailed as you once.Didn't spend me nights doing currency transactions though,but I perpetrated,trust me I was around.
Now didn't I read months ago you were on the verge of getting married?Good Luck but you are about to go to levels that your ego better be prepared for.Your nights are no longer your Own,for starters.
So how about you go back to the Top of d'Board and BORE Ivan with this currency trading twaddle?
Happy Trading.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2777
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 22, 2007 - 08:04 pm: |
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Ahoy Sea-Dog Duggie
Do you have any Rules On Carrying CASH on small craft with a value of $25K
I floated a small yacht "The HMAS Tom Thumb" in late July to cover expenses
I have always found Small ships are a lot easier to handle in Rough sea and Gale
Believe me!
It's a lot easier to build up an average speed of ~100% /quarter in small craft than in the heavier displacements
Do you have any Rules On Carrying CASH on small craft with a value of $25K
I floated a small yacht "The HMAS Tom Thumb" in late July to cover expenses
I have always found Small ships are a lot easier to handle in Rough sea and Gale
Believe me!
It's a lot easier to build up an average speed of ~100% /quarter in small craft than in the heavier displacements
NB Please note that Captain Empty-Head has made all the Four mistakes any one can make at sea
HOISTING MISTAKES
HOLDING MISTAKES
WAITING MISTAKES
LOWERING MISTAKES
Crikey!I am still amazed I am almost on track for the 1st quarter
As you can see
I am now well cashed up for the next quarter/Leg
Do you have any golden rules re Cash Onboard and the proportion of sail you have presented to the wind at any given time?
IE: In small craft when do you find the best time to sail under a full Spread of sail?
Salute and Gods' speed
NB: FNT and Bon Voyage
HMAS Tom Thumb Captained by Captain Empty-Head START $30,000.00
FLOATED 24/07/2007
Data to: WEEK #14 22-Oct 2007
Code Final Final Starting No. Closing Initial $Gain Brkg Starting Running Totals
Date $ Price $ Price $ Change of Shares $ Position $ Cost $Loss $Incl Date
CUE 18/09/2007 0.235 0.245 0.01 25000 6105.05 5894.95 $210.10 39.9 3/09/2007 $210.10 $30,210.10
INP #2 1/10/2007 1.085 0.32 0.765 20000 21680.05 6419.95 $15,260.10 49.9 28/08/2007 $15,460.20 $45,460.20
GGP 3/10/2007 0.41 0.32 0.09 17000 6950.05 5459.95 $1,490.10 39.9 5/09/2007 $16,950.30 $46,950.30
EMP 8/10/2007 0.1 0.075 0.025 80000 7980.05 6019.95 $1,960.10 39.95 1/10/2007 $18,910.40 $48,910.40
ADY 9/10/2007 0.55 0.56 -0.01 15000 8230.05 8419.95 -$189.95 39.95 8.10/2007 $18,720.45 $48,720.45
CHM 11/10/2007 0.075 0.097 0.022 100000 7519.95 9680.05 $2,160.10 39.9 8/10/2007 $20,880.55 $50,880.55
CVI 18/10/2007 0.24 0.195 0.045 40000 9580.05 7819.95 $1,760.10 39.9 12/10/2007 $22,640.65 $52,640.65
CVN 18/10/2007 0.355 0.355 0 20000 7080.05 7119.95 -$39.95 39.95 8/10/2007 $22,600.70 $52,600.70
CMN 22/10/2007 0.175 0.17 0.05 50000 8730.05 8519.95 $210.10 39.9 8/10/2007 $22,810.80 $52,810.80
NDO 22/10/2007 0.32 0.35 -0.03 20000 6380.05 7019.95 -$639.90 39.9 8/10/2007 $22,170.90 $52,170.90
THX 22/10/2007 0.475 0.345 0.13 17500 8292.55 6057.45 $2,255.05 39.9 18/09/2007 $24,425.95 $54,425.95
Code Purch. Date Units Avg. Price Last % Chg Brkg $ Cost $ Value $ P/L
LAT 12/10/2007 110000 0.07 0.066 -5.71 19.95 7719.95 7260 -459.95
TGS 5/09/2007 12000 0.5 0.405 -17 19.95 6019.95 4980 -1039.95 CASH
onboard
Totals $'s Under Sail $13,739.90 $12,240 -$1,499.90 $40,685.05
SO MUCH FOR THAT STUPID EXCEL PROGRAMME!!!!
(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 22, 2007)
(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 22, 2007)
(Message edited by captain_chaza on October 22, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 710
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 22, 2007 - 09:11 pm: |
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Dug,
I'm about capitalising on opportunities in all markets. And I don't sip absinthe through sugar cubes, rather, I prefer the bitterness straight up. I quite enjoyed my pastis before my last meal at Tetsuyas. You should try it, it opens your taste buds up to all kinds of possibilities.
Some new material might be nice. I fail to see that the fact that I am not trading super and am forced to contribute more tax as an indication of my lack of relevance. New ideas are the catalyst for progress. We all have a lot to thank for the ego of the youth.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 27
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 22, 2007 - 09:39 pm: |
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Dug,
Nope, not really a back tester. Though I do test my ideas before I use them by eye balling across a number of charts, but not a rigorous back test as some would do. It's in my capabilities to do the whole serious testing thing (degree in that computer stuff), but spend enough time in front of these computers with work and trading. I'd rather play with the kids.
Your question prompted me to look at my own trading results though (put objective figures where subjective feelings were making the comments). I found that my overall win rate (profit >0%) to be 35% (total trades 68), and my <50c win rate was 35% (total trades 28).
So there you go, I don't really have a small share problem :-) I have a win-rate problem.
I guess the reason for only 35% is probably because I have been using a breakout approach. But when I look over my wins I am not getting great results over the long term (or at least I know I could have gotten much better). A couple of good wins has made most of my money. I need to change my style, so your momentum suggestion still sounds good to me.
I do however note that I am currently on a 9 trade losing streak :-( and a number of those have been sub 20c, thus biasing my outlook. Last time I had a 9 long streak (this is my second in 4 years) I took about 5 months before I really got back into the market. It's been hurting the last couple of months when I see so many shares climbing 50-200% and I have hit all losers :-(
Cheers
Sittingduck.
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 270
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 22, 2007 - 10:42 pm: |
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SittingDuck .
is the Win% the problem or is the Target/Stop ratio the problem ?
with a 35% strike , wouldn't you be going for setups showing at least a Target of 2x the Stop ? -- that gives you odds of 2/1 -- a break even situation , so as to creep ahead you would need to either restrict plays to those with a tighter support level , hence tightening the Stop or with a higher Target -- either way you would be increasing the odds in your favor
a couple of "good wins" out of 68 trades I thought would have been around normal ie: > than the expected odds
(Message edited by coyotte on October 22, 2007)
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 28
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 08:03 am: |
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Coyotte,
I think I have mentioned elsewhere in the forums that target setting is something that I haven't really worked out. So it could well be a part of the problem, and it's something I obviously need to work on. I guess I have been working on just letting my winners run (which is a good thing in itself).
There have been trades where I have been on a winning position and then let it slip. I need to look at these a bit closer, but I have a feeling they have climbed to >15-20% and then I haven't pulled the trigger as they pulled back, in the hope that they would recover again. It could be I am letting emotions overrun my profit stops, or that my profit stops are too slow at reaction. Bet it's the emotions though, I know of a couple recently where I let them run past where I knew I should have gotten out.
When I do an expectancy analysis across my closed trades (which I added to my spreadsheet I put together last night to get the win rate) I find that my expectancy is only 0.41R (where R = my stop loss risk). This means that I can only expect to gain 40% of my at risk stake on each trade (all averaged out of course). This may be a good sign that I need to consider targets a bit before buying. I also need to look at when I am buying. I suspect that it could be a case that I am buying setups not signals (ie my system for entry needs adjusting, which I am working on).
Cheers
Sittingduck
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 271
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 09:13 am: |
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SittingDuck
out of curiosity , when did you first get onto NEC ?
If at around the 1.35 level, then you had a perfect trade setup --- which panned out to the Target
( the 1.87 was just above the flag's target )
1.35 Entry
1.20 Stop
1.85 Target
a 15c loss to a 50c gain -- they don't come much better than this .
know it's in hindsight -- but may pay you to take a closer look at this chart -- it was a classic Flag Chart with entry, stop and target well defined .
(Message edited by coyotte on October 23, 2007)
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2433
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 09:42 am: |
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Charles,on Cash-
I try to keep the Compounding going ie try not to hold too much cash at any one time.
I think this is necessary especially with only $25k[unlike the $100k you voyage with]
I'm afraid I go blank looking at rows of figures as above.Just can't or maybe Won't concentrate.You know my father[who taught me a bit about shares]he used to be able to add in his head pounds/shilling/pence columns of figures and then put me on a calculator to confirm his total.Never when I said it wasn't added up to his figure by the calculator was I actually right.
Anyway,my commitment to compounding means that is one reason why I favour Pyramiding,money comes available I buy more of my established GOers.Due to my use of FA,Scenario and just getting d'Vibe on a share as well as it's TA,I try to do "Specialty" trading often in a limited number of shares not the wide field you follow,Charles.
I know Momentum Trading is suppose to be characterised by multi transactions,quick cut throat and being whip sawed etc but I reckon there is a calmer way to do it by
Defining at Watchlist Stage a much more "preferred" Status.
Eliminating Regret as a psycher to ya head.
Having pre-determined "prejudices" like I don't want to buy such and such type of Shares and never NEVER caring that such an action means you miss out on a go.
I am not Trading to earn a living/lifestyle.I more live on Capital not income so I play the Share Market for Capital Gains.Unlike many who have to extract a monthly nut/take/wage,I'm free to pit my reckonings against the Actual and see who wins.
but I ramble,gotta go.will make some reply to other last night posts later.
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 29
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 10:57 am: |
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coyotte,
Not in NEC, just my pick for short term comp. So its not only rampers in there :-). I am using the comp as a test bed for developing my strategy.
That being said I had a buy signal from my standard system on the 18th September, so could have got in on the 19th at around 85c. Would have been a good trade to date. I also would be still holding it until yesterday. I put it into the comp based on it's pull back to the trend line and then a high close on Friday. Yesterday it broke down under the trend line, so that would be my first signal to consider a sell today using my standard system, if it moved down on open I would be out. I also use 2xATR or Countback trailing stops)
As I said, I seem to be picking losers and watching the good ones pass by right now. My entry system can produce a lot of potential buys, 5-6 per night at times, I can't enter them all, and sometimes they need a couple of weeks to actually start their true run. I pick the ones that look like they have potential to start a new run (MMA's bunched up) as that's where I seem to get the big hits. It also means that I need to react quickly when I get them wrong.
I've been more focussed on indicators rather than patterns, goes with my programming background I guess. It's not so easy to program a pattern recognition system, indicators are simple. I have some basic pattern understanding but know I could do with some more research. Again this is part of what I am developing and testing through the comp.
I do notice that NEC are up 5.5c at the moment, so maybe the support is there, and yesterday was just moving with the currents of the market.
I think that my breakout style has lead me through some vicious emotional periods, and its a hard way to learn the markets. Along with job stress, and having two young kids, I think a less "skin-of-my-teeth" style would be a good thing.
A tip for new players, breakouts look great, but they come at a cost.
Cheers
sittingduck.
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 272
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 11:23 am: |
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SittingDuck
am a Guppy trader myself -- love his style.
but maybe your using the wrong approach -- if you have family and work pressures , wouldn't you be better off with a Trend Trading approach rather than a Breakout method, like after all breakout trading is just adding to the pressure .
Guppy's book " Trend Trading " may turn the situation around -- based on GMMA's and a sensible approach to Darvis --- guppy lays both methods out in this book -- pretty clear cut
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 31
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 11:29 am: |
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Agreed Coyotte, need to re-read Trend Trading. I do ride the trends, just seem to be adverse to getting in mid trend. "Have to get on as early as possible, or I miss out!!!" I know it's the wrong attitude, and it's part of what Dug is trying to point out with this thread. I think I am applying breakout entries but trying to ride trends, and the two don't necessarily work together too well (most of the time anyway).
Cheers
Sittingduck.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2436
Registered: 07-2005
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