| Author |
Message |
     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2428
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Monday, October 22, 2007 - 01:45 pm: |  
|
If one is looking for GOers with Momentum,today gives an opportunity for Cream.Like if a share goes up substantially on a day when the All Ords drops 100+ points,it is worthy of consideration.
Anyhow,looked at my Brokers List today of Movers.
Now what I look for is something "respectable",higher the price it is AND yet it puts on 5%+ ie not .04 shares and below.I also take regard of the Volume incurred in this Rise.Piddling grounds for Rejection.
Anyhow today what caught my eye was-
LCT-Bio Company,not into them esp After it's just a News Spike.Reject.
SHG-it's $1<[over] so it's respectable.News Upgraded Reserves and it's Energy.Chart is at ATH but could it be a Double Top? defite to Watch List Material.
SEG-a blink at past news revealed release of escrow shares.needs investigating.probably give it a miss?
STU-another Energy on Good News.Chart check shows Ranging most likely.doesn't grab me first up like instinctually so PASS.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
|
sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 30
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 11:24 am: |
|
Dug,
I had a buy signal on SHG a couple of weeks back (27/9), since which it's done nothing really, but it hasn't broken my stops (not that I am in, it's another that I chose not to trade in favour of something else). I will watch how this pans out as an example. It could be that combining your suggestion of joining in the momentum, along with using signals from my current signal as a setup to watch, would produce a more reliable system.
I also had a number of buys on STU over the last month. I assessed it using MMA's, and the long terms are still upside down (shorter < longer) so not trustworthy right now.
Keep up the nice work. I have a friend just getting into the market and learning the in's and out's of IC. I will point this post out to him as somewhere to gain some knowledge.
Cheers
Sittingduck
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2437
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 12:01 pm: |
|
sitting duck,you are experiencing "difficulties" in a strong Bull Market,imagine how it's going to be when the market stabilises,goes sideways or even Bears Down.
I just hope your friend doesn't experience the classic gamblers' entre to Misery which is a Big Win First Up.
STU piled it on again today,that's an example of one you may miss by using a large day gain as a signal.Basically you're looking for an alert to a minor retrace in following days[flagging above or on 50% of the Gain]so that one day alert becomes your flag pole.Simple,but it works often as not to be profitable.Get a Good Start as the Charlie pontificates often.
STU of course is still in it's pre-established Ranging Pattern so it's the Break of THAT which will make a buy perhaps more appealing percent gain wise.
what were your earlier trigger signals,sitting duck?it's irrelevant that you didn't act on them.One is looking for Options/Opportunities by Watchlisting not gathering tales about the ones that got away!!
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
|
sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 32
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 04:20 pm: |
|
dug,
my friend entered the markets on 25/7/2007 (check the XAO). I had left him with a warning that the market was unstable and he should try paper trading some of the ideas we discussed for a couple of months, and reading some books. So no big wins for him first up. Of course he had no exit discipline and froze completely. Probably a good thing, as if he had sold in the following few days he would have lost heaps. He got out of it with a slap on the wrist, though one share he is still 50% down on and refuses to do anything with. So he has had a baptism of fire, but he still is working it, and hasn't given up. He will probably be a great trader given a little time. He is a natural at other numbers/probability activities, and can get a feel for how to take advantage of a situation without blinking. For now tenacity is doing him well.
I am fully aware that my current style really doesn't suit overly volatile markets, hence my drive for change. You are helping in the effort thanks.
My struggle is more now than during the bull. I am thinking the bull is now in battle with the bear, hence the current problems. I need to check my figures at home again but I think my last losing streak was mid 2006 when we also had a volatile period.
Heaps get away it seems, but you are right, it's the ones that you hook that count. I use a simple system based on ADXR and PI/DI crossovers. More weighted to the crossover than the ADXR as I found that it was often in the non-trending region when I got the best signals. Sometimes I find I bail looking for other opportunities just too early, other times I get stopped out, and the share later starts it's move.
Got to go, thanks for the help.
Dave
|
lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 711
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, October 24, 2007 - 11:56 am: |
|
I think the culling process is the most important thing in trading any instrument with vast numbers of peers. There are huge numbers of small caps to consider/compare. Where does one start?
In any given year there will be small caps with huge percentage gains. Gains that dwarf everything else. At the same time most will be rubbish. The returns are asymmetric - the few dominate to total.
Having exposure to just one of the few can make you very rich indeed. The trick is to make sure you get at least some of the biggest winners. Hence, the culling process.
It is clear that in order to improve your probability of getting a big winner you need to trade as many instruments as possible. You CANNOT predict which small cap will turn into the next AMZN, SLX or OXR. The reason for there rapid rise is because everyone didn't see/understand there potential. Can you have better insight on the thousands of ideas small caps are marketing at any given time.
We do know where the big potential for small caps is.
Mining exploration - if they find something they have something (ala Captain)
Biotech & Technology - if there idea is adopted.
The only common feature of the big winners regarding price data is the large % gains. The biggest winners are likely to score higher momentum readings more often relative to the entire market. Again asymmetric.
Relative momentum must therefore be the start of the culling process.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2442
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Wednesday, October 24, 2007 - 12:45 pm: |
|
lafee,
I'm trying to work up a Technique in Culling that can be used by Everyone and I don't hold intellectual property rights to it.
Best of All,lafee,d'Joke,this joke has a dbl brizzo "context"]
but best of all lafee,
like I've read you stating that
d'Problem with Technique Talk is that when you find one and chat about it,Come d'Advocate on an Ants Pants Technique, all the Pilgrims do it and ya newly found technique is woeful,breaks down,
so ergo It's Good nix2 Blabber,a true trader has secrets.
What I'm saying is I heard You Say This in words to that effect.
Now,I fully acknow edge lafee,Ya FAST,you have advanced knowledge of Techniques,I RESPECT that you were some President of a Southern Uni Investor "Club" and what's more lafee I Respect You for THAT.knowing it.
but,where was I???
Right CULLING TECHNIQUE
Correlating $ to # Shares on Issue.Develops a technique towards Restricted Supply eg 30cent shares with less than 100m## of shares,ALSO guaging Free Float.
gotta go cvi bears watching.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
|
sittingduck
Member
Username: sittingduck
Post Number: 35
Registered: 11-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 09:10 am: |
|
Dug, I was getting hopeful that you were dropping d'lingo thing :-) You slipped for a couple of posts.
Keep up the flow of discussion, the point and counterpoint is a great way to see how varied peoples beliefs are.
Cheers
Dave
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2447
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 09:56 am: |
|
Sorry sitting duck.See you're new to this site and might not know some history of it.
I won't go too far into it but basically any and all discussion of technique once was limited to some current book or widely published Idea.Individuals didn't put up too much about their own personal methods like there was Never any chat about Scanning Methods using IC and there came about this angle that If you find a Personal Method then it was stupid/dumb unprofessional to discuss it because if Everyone got onto it?The method wouldn't work anymore,one would lose one's Edge blather,blah Do ya follow,sitting duck?
The site deteriorated to this Clique supposedly in the Know,who everyday back patted one and other as being REALLY TRUE TRADERS while everyone else was Neophyte,formed a pool of pilgrims who either showed they were Keen by kowtowing,praising the Great One Clique or,well,sitting duck I won't go into how they acted to THEY who dare to rock the status quo of being inferior to d'Great Ones.
So I hope all this helps in interpreting,sd.
as for the last bit it was an attempt to use the number of shares on issue as one criteria for culling.
you've seen a pattern in a penny a pattern entice but on any "check of company credentials" you find a micro cap $15millioner that seems to have some half billion shares on issue.
does this make any difference in decision making?
what if you find the same pattern say but it's in a $50mil Market Cap with less than 100mil shares?
On these grounds alone is one "better" than the other?
Is supply of shares to demand a workable/valid criteria?
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
|
lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 712
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 10:10 am: |
|
Dug,
Big moves are strange events, each is totally different. Anaylsis for 'trend trading' starts with the result. If its ganna be big it must at some point go up. Analysis deals with comparing to some kind of average. These events are not average.
Taleb says "put yourself in situations where favourable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones."
"I will never get to know the unknown since, by definition, it is unknown. However, I can always guess how it might affect me, and I should base my decisions around that."
You may find that float analysis points you to the possibility of a squeeze. But you do not want to rule out participating in big trends that don't meet your float/price criteria. Priority 1 is making sure you have the winners. Not which ones will be the winners.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
|
lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 713
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 10:25 am: |
|
Dug,
You are right I won't discuss the specifics of my technics for my Short Term trades as the setups are subject to ever changing cycles. I am not ashamed of that. This type of analysis is different in the fact that it is non-predictive.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
|
dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2449
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 11:03 am: |
|
lafee,
you are probably using the term "short term" to mainly cover a Day,3day max,right?
If so,I have no problem,criticism of you personally not illustrating your trading methods Specific.
It's this denigration of IC posters' posts as being Tips by "d'Great Ones" that I'm going the Throat at.
I see "They" don't post much anymore but I'm still insulted by their past inferences,patronising pap and especially their claim to fame based sheerly on regurgitating some yankee books' say so and these being just salesmens gee up mottos.
but I better stop.Control d'Rage etc.
I'm wondering if Shares on Issue as one ONE Consideration/Criteria may not be useful for those who wish Long Term Trades ie a month/months rather than day/single week.They who can't spend all day on d'Watch because they have a Real Job?
So what are some "tricks" to Culling you can share,lafee?just small cap shares,out of the 200,etc.
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
|
lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 714
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
|
| | Thursday, October 25, 2007 - 11:56 am: |
|
Rank momentum across the entire market over X period of time (RSI,etc are not useful). Think more towards ROC. Create a small updatable list of the highest scorers and trend trade from only that list.
Oh, and be prepared to feel like crap most of the time.
A current list might consist of:
EGO POS RMS PLT CUL INP ZYL JPR JRV CUY CXM GGY ARU BLR AGX BRD ARE RMI COK PRR.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
|
| |
