My Most Successful Trading Strategy

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Charts and Sidetracks from Main Thread dug 13 1 16-Nov-07  09:22 am

Archive through November 14, 2007 pse 25 1 14-Nov-07  09:42 pm

Archive through November 07, 2007 dug 25 1 07-Nov-07  11:18 am

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lafee

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 10:05 pm:

PSE,

I have never shorted a penny, nor will I ever. As the risk is too great. Your downside is limitless and your upside limited to the price (rather small) of the share. Why would I put myself in such a situation. Surely that cannot be rational.

Your strategy may be right 99% of the time. It may feel good pocketing profit afer profit. That may strengthen your resolve to continue following your system. But on your hundredth trade you may loose 20 times what you have previously made in all your trades.

I am the the biggest skeptic around. I don't believe the news and think listening to it makes people stupid. But I also know that the one time out of a hundred the news is right the result is going to be so big that it could bankrupt me if I had short exposure.

You CANNOT know everything. You can limit your downside.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

captain_chaza

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 10:11 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Cadet PSE

Your comment about turning $10,000 into $100,000 in a year reminds me of an Old sailors tale
It was once accepted that the Polynesians were the best sea-farers of all time having populated all the far distant islands on the Pacific Ocean

When you then study history you find out that they had to leave their islands because they had simply burnt out all the timbers for cooking fuel including the building materials for cooking fuel

They had no choice but to go to sea

As the Long termers say
If you throw a bottle in the ocean it could circum-navigate the Earth and this is probably true

What is not known is
"How many lives were lost "Island hopping"

What I mean is
If one can turn $10,000 into $100,000 in a year
How many $10,000 year losses do we need to budget for?

IE:
If you can only do it Once every ten years
Why bother?

Salute and Gods' speed

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

pse

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 05:46 am:

Lafee, CC
re trading news pennies:
STEP 1
reserving judgement and from a distance, peruse the horizon
STEP 2
reserving judgement, move in closely, lift every log, every leaf, every stone - fully inform yourself of the mechanisms at play
STEP 3
draw your conclusions from a position that is informed and clear

Lafee I can accept, but you CC, you !!!. . . . I am surprised you only partially tackled STEP 1, then jumped direct to STEP 3, bypassing the all important STEP 2, which affords the "informed and clear" portion of STEP 3.

I shake my head and turn away.

CC re your post 2823:
as I stated in the original post:
No one wants to hear that though, they ridicule and say it cant be done. - i rest my case.

** To Sum:
That's it for me. My focus is trading. I have no interest in convincing people of my reality.

I wish you both the best in the trading journey.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

dug

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:04 am:

SO I can't even have recreation time with the wife,do I have to do my duties all night here now too?

Charles-You've forgotten your saying-Why am I the last to be told!!?!PSE did in an earlier post set out the Broker now doing shorts on pennies.While in exile,I learnt that NAV was now able to be shorted and here's a link where one finds the ASX now "approved" shorting shares with the percent allowable etc-www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt

Now it would appear particular brokers are borrowing outside this list to also "allow" shorting of shares unlisted but go thru the list and you'll find many low turnover shares like NAV qualify.
The same thing is happening with CFD's Long with penny shares joining their Lists on a 50/50 gearing.CVI is an example I recently learnt of.

I can only find out about these Developments from Sites other than Incredible.This place is in the Doldrums.Posters here are very few and have "withdrawn" to exclusive threads predominately working on your dreaded FA,Charlie.
New posters like pse have to run a gauntlet past you,Charles and your often quite purposefully obscure mutterings.
Didn't I read once how you are "Famous" for never giving any Method of Share Picking out to Anyone? Even to your "accolytes" gathered at ya hamburger shop?Always you use the dicotomy of mottos like on Volume Analysis It's-
Someone is buying for every Sale so Volume is Manipulated so say I[ie you]
There are dozens of threads where you've come Down with what seems some Definitive,Last Word Decree.You get questioned about it and you never Reply[Market Depth Devil etc is an example]

Now you'll go all huffy and babble about how you don't Need to post here,your time is precious etc blah but it's not like the old days,Chuck.Maintaining your precious Ego is no longer the Agenda Principally of this Site.
Take my word for it,OK?

pse-I'll be real disappointed if you go off this site and isolate yourself back in your trading room.Lafee made some good points for your consideration,even CC did but,well,it's pretty weak of a Brisso to take Umbrage,pack up and go home over such a petty spat.No one Knows it All,this site used to be a Learning experience for everyone and it's hoped it will be again,once we can shake-up the Hierachy[Heil!/Hail] of the Past.

I'm off til the afternoon.
regards.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

coyotte

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:36 am:

I can understand pse dilemma

it comes back to the old arguments between "buy & hold " and "long term traders" just that now it's got down to Position Traders V's Day/Short Term .

It's why Position only Traders are blind to CFDs and Shorts -- they simply do not understand how to use these tools and just out of sheer ingorance blast any one that do'es

Trouble is the Shorter the term , the more you have to be aware of your psyche and you certainly cannot trade correctly whilst others are nitpicking at you ---- this thread has done a grave injustice to to pse imo

Note : I am a Position & Short Term Trader with the occasional Day Trade --- and yes I use Shorts and CFDs where appropriate ---- learn to use these tools properly , then you can give bias advice about them .

Good luck pse -- but thought this would happen.

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

eric

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:55 am:

Coyote, well said

Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com

steve_david

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Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 06:15 pm:

Hi pse and dug
i am only new to the game of shares.
My story is basically i got interested in shares 25 years ago but never did anything, in the last 12 months i have finally got around to start trying to educate myself in shares. I thought the way to go was read as much about a company/s as possible and then take the plunge.
I am now at the stage of taking that plunge.
I never considered short term/day trading as you guys obviously do, is there any possibility that either of you could take a 1st year apprentice under your wing and hopefully turn me into a tradesman.
Reading the entire thread started by pse made my eyes open, to think i was hoping for 10-15% returns...

dug

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 12:51 pm:

steve_david-
yesterday a post was put here asking pse to widen his profile.tell us something about him self,age,previous occupations etc.
As a newcomer you are on time delay,possibly because you didn't put in your address and phone number etc.So while your posting here,fill in your profile details completely and you may be released from parole.
You're free to ask questions,make as many naive comments as you like in your search for knowledge but here's a tip

don't think anyone is some Master to apprentice you to.
Mentors they're called now,right?Well you be real wary of anyone private emailing you offering this service,at a price or even for free.
You're in Virtual World.There's Spivs and Charlatans cruising here a plenty,Remember You are Ultimately On Your OWN,ya have HAVE to Work it Out for Yourself how to DO the Market.
anyway welcome to IC and I'm looking forward to your future postings.
Happy Trading.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

dug

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 01:24 pm:

coyotte 'n' eric
I know I,like the Captain,always take a stand against Shorting and CFD's.In my case it's because I've seen too many decent,upright citizens ruined by going fast tracking.
I know it's backed by Institutions and a Lot of Note Worthy Books that Leverage is "Safe" if done "prudently" like perhaps how you two do it,but...
well,you did read the Captains'Tale about when Shorting first came in?How the Broker went Broke? Do you still follow that History Repeats? That Brokers struggle for Market Share is a Driving Force?What seems plausible even decent today gets Twisted by a Dynamic Market doing a Repeat?

Still I completely agree that I'm not a Day Trader.I'm not even a Trader working this as a Day Job to Eat.I'm not chasing the Bucks just learning[still]how to go me vs the Market.The Only Game in Town.
I don't do "If ya can't beat them?Join 'em".
I Do "get an angle on them and try and thrash 'em with it"

That's why I concentrated on Small Cap Shares.I'd hoped to avoid their silliness by going where THEY couldn't but the Powers that Be seem to now letting their dogs loose on my "turf".
So I guess I'll just have to hone some tools,methods that these Flash Harry Short CFD'ers haven't read about in their books,haven't been encouraged by the Herd to Follow as some Gospel.
I want to be still standing when the Wake Up comes.

regards.
ps- pse/pete how about ELK today?also noticed RAU and Your one KAL.later I'll post in Short Term on ELK and RAU and also give you a History Lesson here on d'Old Days and News.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

pse

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 02:38 pm:

dug,
did you unload ELK at profit today??
that is a nasty looking shooting star, i think its called!
peter

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

dug

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 02:57 pm:

no pse.didn't sell ELK.
I'm trying to work on an EOD system so I can enjoy Summer!!
It's all very complicated.Not for everyone maybe not even Me!!
but basically I don't sell in the first half hour from Opening unless I've figured Otherwise!!
but in ELK's Case it was back at low 80's by 10:30am,I'd missed the Flurry to a Buck,I reckon it's "FA" leads me to conclude it'll go back there plus more so I just wear today's events.
but it Did show anticipation of News Method to ya,pse hey?
did you short KAL?
RAU was a great opportunity,today,right?

Can you tell me something about the Mechanics of Shorting that I asked yesterday?Can you cut out/take your profits anytime/anywhere or does that Old Rule of a Shorter can only close on a up Retrace still apply?
cheers.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

dug

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 04:57 pm:

Just looked at the ASX list of Shorters and ELK wasn't on it yet,pse posted that his Broker offers Shorts on this.
Obviously some other method is being used by his Broker to qualify other shares for shorting beyond the "sanctioned" ones.
Can someone confirm or deny pse's information without in any way abusing him?
He posted the Brokers Name early on in this thread but,well,why should I bother?
I'll just take his word for it.

Afterall DYE a very tightly held share is Officially Sanctioned to do Shorts In which I didn't know before,didn't want to know,truth be told but...
well I reckon these New Fangled Derivatives and their Popularity is going to be a Big Factor written about years from now all Learned and Obvious just like d'Tulips.
off for a drink til tomorrow.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

pse

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 08:08 pm:

dug

today shorting is the same as going long, but in reverse.
its that simple. there are no restrictions. the biggest obstacle is psychological.

u may already know this but i'm going to tell the story anyway, simply because i like it.

u tell your broker u want to short ELK (perhaps not the best eg. considering u r long dug). your broker says ok i can get 30ku of ELK for u, i'll lend them to u, but you have to give them back to me.

u agree to this.

u take your brokers 30ku and decide your going to sell them, because you believe that next week you'll be able to buy them back at a cheaper price.

so u go to market and sell them at 73.5c. a few days pass and elk is now 50c so u decide you'll buy those shares back and return them back to your broker.

the difference b/w your original sale and purchase is your profit which u get to keep. the broker on the other hand gets his shares back and his fees, everyone's happy.

of course if they are more expensive when u go to buy them back u pay the difference

(Message edited by pse on November 15, 2007)

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

chart_rider

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 08:10 pm:

Dug

You've got the short rule back to front. The rule is that short sells can be made only on an uptick to avoid the situation of short sells pushing the market down. The buy however can be done at any time.

However, when I was doing some shorting a couple of years ago I was dealing through a broker who could sell at any time, short circuiting (no pun intended) the uptick rule - to this day I don't understand why they were not constrained by the rule.

CR

lafee

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 08:38 pm:

As far as I know the uptick rule is only relevant to US shares. A regulation passed after the portfolio insurance debacle of the 87 crash.

I will say it again. The only reason to buy a penny is for the potential of an asymmetric return. By shorting you are limiting your profit potential and exposing yourself to unlimited downside. Your are doing the opposite.

WHY WOULD YOU RISK RUIN IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO?????

PSE, I am not trying to mock you. I am just trying to warn you that your risk is much greater than you realise.

The idea of shorting a penny is not something that any trader should be contemplating. THE RETURN WILL NEVER BE WORTH THE RISK.

Trust me. I have been around long enough to see that the most unlikely scenario happens much more frequently than any backtesting would indicate.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

philr

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 08:55 pm:

Dug

I use the same broker as PSE i.e FP I only have a CFD account with them (yes I know bah humbug) but anyway ELK is not listed as a short for me.

I guess PSE must have some special arrangement to be able to short these types of stocks as I had never heard of being able to short the pennies.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

pse

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:12 pm:

phone FP tomorrow,
ask them if you can short anything
they will tell u yes even if its not on the short list.
in this case u must ask them to organise the short. they will let you do it for the day, ie close position by 4.10

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

captain_chaza

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:26 pm:

It is always a challenge to go a sailing with
Liars, Cheats and Murderers

However I do love the splash of salt water on my face in the morning
It invigorates the few remaining brain cells I still have left after so many battles on both Land and Sea

Salute and Gods speed

PS Shorting pennies such as a KAL makes no sence

Give me their phone no and I will fix them !

chriso

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:30 pm:

Hi all
This thread has headed into a shorting conversation, so my open question is. Why are we shorting individual shares when the underlying market is in a long term uptrend?
Doesn't that go against the rules of going with the market?
If shorting is required for the short term time frame, eg a correction or pull back, wouldn't it be better to trade an index to achieve the desired result?

Chris

resillent1

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:44 pm:

PSE

Let me get this right, your shorting pennies that HAVE to be closed same day.

If your putting real coin into this and posting live then I could be REAL interested.

I see there's only two certainties in shorting pennies. Death (by outlier) and Taxes.

captain_chaza

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:48 pm:

Ahoy Sea-Cadet PSE

Please Note all the so-called shorters over the last few years have all left the IC Forum in DISGRACE

Those that have professed to have even a miniscule success rate in intra-day trading have also left the building

With regard to all the CFD'ers
Well what can I say?

Except that are are just a pack of Liars Cheats and Murderers

As they say at Sea
Cheats never prosper and none of them so far has proven to me they can win a penny
Ever seen a CFD trader ever back his judgement on this site

NO!!!

They simply hide behind the code of secrecy and claim long tern excuses only a mother would believe

Salute and Gods' speed

Crikey!
Only a Fool makes a Life-threatening tack at Sea
"Life is Everything"

(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 15, 2007)

coyotte

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:01 pm:

Well the way I play it and I do a fair bit of Shorts BUT through CFDs.

Rule 1 : NEVER hold a NAKED Short overnite .

Rule 2 : You have several positions with a broker in a particular sector , say the Gold Sector --- say the POG looks ready for some profit taking and your long term positions are looking top heavy --- you know the sectors in a long term up trend , but a correction seems imminent --- BUT at this stage you do not know .

Well you can SHORT LGL as a CFD -- and with it's wide trading range , for a lot less than the value of the shares your holding expessially something like GOLD.AX

If the sectors all ready topping out there min risk of it suddenly shooting up (if it do'es the Shorts covered any how) --- after the correction is confirmed and the retracement starts you can either just close the SHORT and more than likely be in profit or turn it into a Long .

So instead of forking out several hundred bucks in brokerage and slippage or risking a severe correction you just covered your a*se for a min cost ( bit of insurance which u drop when no longer needed )

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

captain_chaza

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:12 pm:

Ahoy Officer Coyote

Welcome to the crew I call "The Most "

ie: "Most sea-man I have met do the right tack once they have exhausted every other alternative"

Salute and Gods' speed

pse

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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:32 pm:

FOLLOW MY TRADE CC

i leave a message for you saying "KAL", long news trade

on the same day, another message, "is KAL a good short tomorrow?"

KAL has moved 100% since the first message,
claim just 1/2 of that and you've done well!

shame on u cc,

i post in "real time" as KAL is unfolding for all to see, put my money where my mouth is,

you??!! . . . . . .

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

colin_twiggs

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 09:54 am:

Charles,
Your disparaging/condescending attitude towards the other posters on this thread does not win you any admirers and is in breach of the forum rules: Treat other forum members with respect.

coyotte

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 10:07 am:

I for one hold the Capt's analysis ability in high regard ---- BUT from his posts would seriously question the Capt's trading ability ---- you really just let it lighten the day up , were would we be without some of his riddles ?

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 10:58 am:

My thoughts on Ol' Captain Charles-

If you look at his profile,you'll see his Occupation as Author + other stuff.
I see him as having predominately a Technical/Scientific background.Navigator-->Calculus/Advanced Maths etc.

Unless he's an Author of related to this books?well,I've read many of his Must Be Unpublished Manuscripts on the Share Market and as a Devotee of Writing myself,they're Abysmal!

If I was to Edit him,I'd recommend the ditching of all this Nautical Metaphor to describe the Share Market.
Way too esoteric for the General Public plus ties himself into the Plot as the Captain with all action/plot development revolving around him.
Read Traders Groups and you'll find the line-
A Ship can only have ONE Captain ie Him.

tack this with his Adoration of EGO,especially at all costs his Own and you've got ramblings pretty much only publishable by Vanity Press ie only you will be willing to pay for printing it.

but writers are always subject to literary criticism.

However,I know he always has some "excuses" to wiggle out of it but I find his use of this Nautical Metaphor/Analogy extremely Patronising on this Forum.

Sea Cadet/Sea Cadet Officer/Officer/First Mate designated on all and sundry is Patronising bordering on Insulting and just so,well it's not even UnderGraduate it's just so Childish.
It degrades the assumed Intelligence of this Forum.It's not a Joke.It demeans and is d'means of Over Weening Arrogance.

The Captain is an Historic Figure in this Forum.I enjoy tangling with him and dish out more in disrespect at him than most if not all.We are both exponents of the JAG ie sledging.The difference is I do it most often to THEY who think or actually ARE my betters/superiors and are such poor formers as to try and do d'Lord over me.

So I respect our Captain like I do say Liberal Voters!!

that's my bias.

Happy Trading.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

captain_chaza

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 04:34 pm:

Ahoy Admiral Col'n

How can I or anybody respect Fool-hardiness in the highest degree I have witnessed in this thread

I apologise to all the Liars, Cheats and Murderers I have not named

They know who they are!

Salute and Gods' speed

adetsec

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 07:44 pm:

Charlie
If you believe the thread is full of fool hardiness and the content is offered by liars, cheats and murderers, why do you bother to contribute? Why not simply fade into the sunset and let others get on with it without your cynical input?
I'm not sure I like the cut of your jib Charlie.

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

lafee

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:03 pm:

I don't understand why people find it do difficult to accept Captain's and my argument. Anyone with any experience in trading will understand that the strategy advocate by PSE is like playing russian roulette without knowing how many barrels or bullets are in the gun.

Captain uses the metaphor of a ship. The number one requirement of a Captain at sea is to protect his ship from sinking. If his ship sinks, everyone dies. If a trader runs out of money he cannot trade anymore. Safety must be the number one priority. Above all else - including profit.

A strategy that has the potential to cost the trader more than he has is stupid. It may be that the odds are very much in the favour of the event not happening. But the possibility is still REAL. IT CAN STILL HAPPEN AND YOU CANNOT CONTROL THE CONSEQUENCES.

Come one Dug, you know we speak the truth. It is not EGO but fact. Everyone would be better accepting this truth. They will be around much longer if they do.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

peter1

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:06 pm:

Peter (pse), I am also exasperated by many posters who should know better. You contribute an idea that is novel to some and get nothing but ignorant and contemptuous replies. Your strategy of trying to trade news events by either going long or short is commonly done in the forex and futures markets. Yet when you suggest doing the same thing with ASX small caps, it seems so outrageous to many of the old timers. To those who don't know that this is available, then you are indeed uninformed and out of touch.

I have read many times in this forum, that after 2/3 days of rising prices in a small cap stock there is a high probability of a retracement. If this is reliable, why not trade this downward move? If this short trade is planned and properly managed, then how can this be much more risky than any other short term trade?

Good luck with your endeavour Peter.

captain_chaza

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:10 pm:

Adetsec

I am only too happy to leave your company once you substantiate your previous most damaging accusation

I will wait and wait and wait

Now go to work and substantiate your lying behaviour to all of us on this site

chart_rider

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:21 pm:

This is better than any reality show!

captain_chaza

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:27 pm:

Ahoy Officer Peter #1 and everyone else interested in shorting pennies

Please ring your own broker and see if he will let you on for a SHORT bet /investment of $5000 or $10,000 say a KAL etc etc etc??

Make your own conclusions only after you
do the hard yards

Crikey! I'd love to be a fly on the phone and hear them in rapture and in absolute dis-belief

Salute and Bon Voyage

(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 16, 2007)

lafee

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:29 pm:

Colin,

Not exposing reckless behaviour would be a much greater sin.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

peter1

Member

Post Number: 176
Registered: 12-2005

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:47 pm:

Capt C. I also use FP as my cfd provider and they have many small cap stocks on their cfd list. KAL is on the list with a 100% margin requirement. This extended list of cfd available stocks allows their traders to participate in news driven markets quickly without the need to log into their equity trading account or to transfer monies from one account to the other. If I phoned in and asked them to allow me to short KAL they would probably say, who are you? However if I was known to them then they may allow me to short KAL intraday on a day with high volume. This facility is available on a discretionary basis. I have not used this facility but I am aware that it is available.
I should add that when a stock is added to the list or made available to short, then this is available to all their clients.

(Message edited by peter1 on November 16, 2007)

lafee

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 08:59 pm:

Peter1,

I hope you are not calling me ignorant.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

captain_chaza

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 09:29 pm:

Ahoy Officer Peter #1

What you refer to as a 100% margin is a Minimum margin call
The Maximum Margin call is what it is and what it becomes

It would probably overide all your other CHESS sponsored stocks and shares your house and even your wife if she is pretty enough

An open contract is an open contract.

I am not surprised about the Intra-day limitations at all as it is their business to do business with the world's biggest losers in this strategy

Are you saying First of all you need huge volume in the morning
Then you need to settle before the close

That's reasonable I guess if you are a real goose?
Crikey!
You get all of the lunch hour trades and a bit more!

What happens in trading halts etc?

Surely there is a Safer cruise strategy?

Crikey Peter!
You know me well enough to know the Captain's respect for the Sea is Legendary

"Safety at Sea is Paramount"

Salute and Gods' speed

peter1

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 09:47 pm:

Defining reckless trading can be very subjective. For me trading without a stop loss is reckless. For me averaging down is reckless. I assume that there are profitable traders that do either or both. It would be reckless of me to do it.

A trading plan to trade a news event both long and then short (when available) is merely another trading method. The risks may be different but as long as they can be managed then it is a reasonable trading strategy.

This is a 15min chart of KAL over the past three days.

kal2

philr

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 10:10 pm:

I agree with CC going short on pennies could be extremely dangerous.

I remember a story of some guy who apparently shorted cdu they were aum before a name change anyhow I think he shorted them at $1.40 or something there was a trading halt then they re-opened at $5 there was a short squeeze and it quickly ran to $10 he was up for millions.

The moral anyhow is if you go long the most you will lose is what you have invested. Go short and losses can be unlimited.

It only has to happen once for you to go broke very easily.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

peter1

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 10:17 pm:

Talking to you guys is fun. We all do things so differently but I bet that we have all made the same mistakes and used the same excuses.

Trading short has just as many dangers as trading long. I came across this today and thought you might like to see it as a contrast to the KAL chart.

This is FMG today, iron ore giant and cfd traders favourite(?) This loss was 4x greater than planned.

fmg1

resillent1

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 10:56 pm:

Some people take employment contracts in war zones because of the big money. Do they truly acknowledge the risk? Who knows but they can come home in a box regardless.

What lafee and the captain are saying is crystal clear. There is the possibility of ruin in shorting pennies.

If you think the risk is low and it won't happen to you, your might be right - but if this is your thinking than your suitability to trading is probably low.

It is only people who truly acknowledge and accept the risks and manage their exposure to keep even the extraordinary events below their risk tolerance who survive long term in the market.

We learn most from our own mistakes but risk of ruin is best learnt from other people’s experience.

chriso

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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 11:09 pm:

I'll ask the same question, why are we shorting individual shares when the underlying market is in a long term uptrend?You can use the index for a short term trade when the underlying market looks top heavy.
Peter1 that trade doesn't look viable to me for a long entry on any time frame, price action spiked, retested the spike and failed. I understand about the trading holt but the entry looks like your buying high purely from a price action point of view without adding indicators.
More time was needed for a long entry.

colin_twiggs

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 07:09 am:

Charles & Lafee,

You can disagree respectfully, rather than call someone a liar or an idiot. If someone proposes trading against the trend, averaging down or some similar folly, we may shake our heads in amazement, but can still afford to be civil and courteous in our response.

Regards,
Colin

lafee

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 09:13 am:

Philr and Resillent, I salute you. Resilience is the key theme here.

Peter1,

On one hand you are saying that trading without a stop is reckless. Yet you would be happy to enter an enviroment (naked short) where no stop can help you. You advocate the protection given by the stop but at the same time you open yourself up to worst danger there is ie many multiples of the cash you put up for the trade. Can you see why your logic is wrong.

Sure you could loose the lot if you are long (with or without a stop) but at least you know precisely how much that is. You can plan around that fact. It is a starting point.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

lafee

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Votes: 2


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 09:36 am:

Colin,

I don't believe trading against the trend is necessarily bad nor do I see averaging down if its part of the plan as folly.

But shorting a penny is folly and I feel I must expose it for what it is.

Cheers Lafee

Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

dug

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Registered: 07-2005

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 10:27 am:

You know,Colin it's a real pity you never have the time to follow the posts here in sequence.Picking up how things develop by bouncing between threads and sections and how some arguments/plots are woven not only within a continuium of a single thread.
I'm being confusing so my main point is that any abuse here last night was not so much Charles and his,well use of a poor cliche[Liars etc]but adetsec swatting himself in,hitting Charlie and then slinking off.No Reply,No supporting argument just a really pathetic swipe and retreat.
I'll take bets adetsec was the star***** blower too.Probably multiple times.

Now Colin,I thought your System was capable of identifying the voters of stars.You know I'm a real critic of this method of giving feedback.It leads to anonomymous badgering of "Colorful Characters".It leads to Ganging Up by Cliques who have determined at face2face meetings or thru perhaps private email"research" groups to "get" a member by Bully Gang Action.

You,Colin know but probably don't want to remember that I was subjected to this behaviour by the now long gone Patch.A pack of your favored Members including at least two of your current Moderator Board imported/encouraged this Patch as "hit person" and organised both a Star Vote Campaign and an email to you campaign to Chuck Me Out.It worked,hey? and They even got rewarded by being Moderators.

It was completely irrelevant that Patch was some Blow In from London who didn't have any actual argument.This was Proved by rederob who just demolished this prat,patch.

Rederob went on to be "Targeted" by this clique too but he was both too good and polite,focused one could say,to be taken out by swarmy,actual quite dumb dills who profess to be on a Higher Plane because they choose feel good slogans like on the bottom of desk calendars over doing FA as in FACTS.

Colin THREE of YOUR MODERATORS-dean,spider and suzieQ no longer post,haven't for months.Two of these and Hilarius were IMHO on Charles' "Side",only willing to admonish him for excessive language.
I say it was ME,jr who drew CC out of his Lair of Traders Groups.Lair as in Fox Hole and Lair as in Bodgie/BigHead.Twas I who at least got him Posting Charts,something your precious moderators weren't GAME to do 'til I gave Ingot54 the Clue nay d'WORD.

so now it is I jr who Call for the Sacking of the Current Moderators Board and the Future Direction of the IC Forum be vigorously discussed,debated and that it be The Future we consider not the maintenance of ego/whatever of the past Great Ones who once lorded around here basically for their own self aggrandisment.
I should add that I am d'Only ONE who can not be Elected!!

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

pse

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Post Number: 71
Registered: 10-2007

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Votes: 2


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 10:30 am:

Gentleman,

I am flattered to see that my writings have stirred so much debate. Revolutions throughout history have always met with great resistance.

What gives me a trading edge?
Quite simply, attention to detail.

It is obvious that none of the dissenters has taken the time to read my postings thoroughly. Nor have you bothered to read between the lines. If you cant do this when reading a handful of posts, how are you ever going to manage when negotiating the market??

The debate at present seems to be centred around shorting pennies. No one has yet disputed the validity of going long on good news. So for the time being I’ll assume there is no obstacle concerning this strategy.

If you had taken the time to give attention to detail you would have noticed that I state in my posts that I have just recently opened an account with, amongst other things, the view to shorting pennies. This suggests that I haven’t yet begun shorting pennies, it also suggests that I am exploring the possibility. This said, my risk management would appear, so far at least, firmly in tact.

Secondly, has any of the dissenters given even an iota to the widely available GSL? No! Why aren’t I surprised. Firstly, the more ignorant amongst you claim that you cant even short pennies. Claptrap! Secondly, none of you has even considered the prospect of attaching a GSL to the penny short.

Attention to detail gentleman. Rise above small mind.

** The speed with which you have mocked and ridiculed, and determinedly sought to displace, throughout dozens of postings in this thread, merely demonstrates “smallness”. Furthermore, feeding such ugly monsters ensures one stays small.

Only 20% of all who attempt trading will make a “great” success of it. When I say great, I mean consistently, year after year, generate 100% percent returns without using CFDs.

O yes, . . . . I can hear the shrieks of terror. I refer you back to the paragraph “**”.

But, I am a compassionate trader (do those two words go together in the one sentence!?), so I will make available to you what only the 20% group truly understand.

Now come in closely, this is important. You to Charlie, . . . . closer.
The key to entering the 20% group is your mind, your personality.

Stay alert!! This is especially directed at the dissenters. You’ve been at it for decades and you’re still in the 80% group.

To firmly ensconce yourself in the 20% group you must employ at ALL TIMES:

Patience – the patience to wait for a high probability trade
Discipline – the discipline to follow your chosen strategies’ rules
Attention to Detail
And above all, Beginners Mind/Open Mind – NOT expert mind!

Exercise some Discipline gentleman. Resist the temptation to hurl more abusive posts. To move from small mind to big mind, the 80% group to the 20% group, you must implement and practice the mindset of a 20% trader.

Which group will you choose? Your posts that follow will tell. But alas, I fear deaf ears.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

dug

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Post Number: 2597
Registered: 07-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 11:31 am:

pse- THEY,and there's a real THEY in this place,They will start thinking Cons-piracy is happening.THEY will dismiss you[n me] as Playing Games.
Pete,we've never met,we haven't even exchanged emails.We KNOW this for a Fact yet THEY will not believe.

pete,the next move if thigs go to the past plot around here is that-
THEY will say you're a previous poster from years ago who has changed their tag/avatar and this is some sin that should never be forgiven but you'll get the denigrate treatment for having the Audacity to question the Establishment "Creed".

I can only state my position that I agree with Lafee[and with Charles] that introducing Shorting in Pennies in Australia will cause Disaster
but I also acknowledge that it is partially a Personal Disaster as in Sweeping Away some 3/4 decades of Historic Method developed by me and More So by Charles to successfully ploy this Market Segment,maybe.

Hold Firm,pete.
Don't let d'THEY drive you away.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

coyotte

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 11:43 am:

Quote:
(To firmly ensconce yourself in the 20% group you must employ at ALL TIMES:

Patience – the patience to wait for a high probability trade
Discipline – the discipline to follow your chosen strategies’ rules
Attention to Detail
And above all, Beginners Mind/Open Mind – NOT expert mind! )
UnOuote

whether it's your's or someone else's pse -- it's excellent -- we often overlook that the market is constantly changing not only in it's nature (bull/bear/flat and etc) but also with it's players , methods and tools -- this is what Frank Dilernia is going on about in his AMT methodology .
As the Nature of the Market changes , we all keep gravitating towards Beginner again.

cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 12:12 pm:

but to keep the Shorting debate Live,pse there's this to consider-
One Day Guaranteed Stop Losses won't Save You.GSLO's will crack under a sweeping Go Low.
In the Build Up/Month/s to this Disaster Day when all the Longs a Trader pursues don't seem to actually perform anymore to Plan.When all one hears is the Money is Made by Shorting.The Market Collapses.

Now to a Shorter the Market Collapsing is Fabulous for them,right?
and you're plan,Pete is to only Day Trade Shorts in Pennies anyway with a GSLO all safe and secure managing risk
but
the Fear is that either you or your fellow shorters will be all exuberent on the money made in a month/s preceeding and change your good intentions.
Brokers because they're not getting so much cash flow from Longers will be pushing you shorters...

Sorry I can't seem to get it clear in my head how to continue the Scenario I'm trying to put

Peter/PSE-Guarantees rely on Who's Giving Them.There comes the Day when they are TESTED and the Guarantor faces Performance or Weasling out/welshing.
If that Day is a Matter of THEM or You being Ruined?
How do ya reckon it's Going to Go?

History is a Guide.
Peter do you remember Sons of Gwalia going Broke?Delisted?
Well the Shorters on a Share that goes Broke ie SEEMS to have performed the Perfect Short,Gone to Zilch,Worth NOTHING
and you sold it at $1 on Leverage
A Mighty SHORT Trade,hey pse?
Did you know some had to Front Up in CASH Deposit the Full Value of their Short.Have it held in Escrow for MONTHS!!
til they got paid on their short bet?
Heard that one,Pete?

Now you can say,
that clause ain't in MY Contract.
That was just some Single Instance of d'Doings of a Single Broker.
I'll be Safe as Long as I check the small print
and you can also ignore me as Only some burnt-out old days time warped babbling charlie doppelganger
but pete,if you're really a devote 4Zen
well,ya gotta see d'Karma/Calmer,hey?

wife's getting bitter;gotta leave.

"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"

Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!

colin_twiggs

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 12:17 pm:

Dug,

If THEY really existed, would you still be posting on this forum?

Regards,
Colin

pse

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Registered: 10-2007

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 12:32 pm:

dug, coyotte,

you warm my heart
it is lonely, as u know, having the attitude of a top 20 percenter,
the 80% just dont understand it, cannot understand.

many at this forum, usually those with the biggest mouths, argue that entry into the 20% group as I define it is rare/ even impossible.

Hogs wash!!
entry into the 20% group is not destined by random selection. it is destined by attitude, by personality type. after all, the same trading strategies are available to us all are they not??

the attitude of a 20 percenter - "Hmmmm, . . . . I've seen the pattern countless times, I wonder if I could short a penny, without breaking my risk management rules?" And so he/she begins to explore "if it can" be done.

the attitude of an 80 percenter - "no way!, it's impossible!, I cant do it!, no one can do it! . . . . get him, he doesnt agree with us".

and just to confuse the "ESTABLISHMENT"

signing off
- Twiggy Sneakers

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

danielc

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 01:20 pm:

CoYOTTE,great post, goes straight to the core of the matter some thing that should be read and dwelt on on a regular basis, be humble and adapt as the market or stock changes moods....

captain_chaza

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Registered: 02-2003

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 01:21 pm:

Ahoy Sea-cadet pse

I am all ears

I also thought like you and considered 100% / Annum a good return

If you study the Incredulous Voyages #1 - #3 in Trading Groups you will find that only One voyage took a year to reach our destination of 100%

After entering our little Weekly regatta I discovered it is possible to make 100% / quarter more regularly than I,you or anyone would have ever imagined
AND
ON A REGULAR BASIS

Modesty prevents me to go on any further
It's all in the records/Logs

I make more mistakes than anyone I know and find my self a little behind the 8 ball this quarter

I floated the HMAS Tom Thumb at the end July with a certain plan in mind
However because I didn't write it down Captain Empty-Head has forgotten the reason and the plan

Notwithstanding that little error I still plan to average 100% quarter over the next year and am racing it against a much larger vessel $170,000

All monies to be spent on only Pennies

Larger ships are harder to handle so how many doubles are possible in large ships is very hard to plan

I will be happy with at least 1 double but this does not mean that 2 doubles is not possible in larger craft

"The Wind Calls the Tune"

I enclose my position as @ Friday's Close ie: Week 16
Unfortunately that stupid excel programme does not seem to post on IC so I can only post the summary

START $30,000.00
CA$H Winnings $28,900.27
TOTAL FUND$ $58,900.27
CO$T of Holdings $30,394.03
CA$H Available $28,506.24

CA$H Winnings $27,375.02
Unders/Overs -$487.98
Profit $26,888.04

Using Captain Einsteins 8th wonder of the world "COMPOUNDING" I intend to reach my destination well before 30 June 2008

I will keep you informed from time to time

Salute and Gods' speed

colin_twiggs

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Post Number: 3056
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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 03:53 pm:

Dug,
The moderators panel communicate about once a year -- normally when you or CC have been misbehaving. To call them a clique is laughable. We may all have our likes and dislikes, but no-one has a vendetta against you or anyone else.

Regards,
Colin

captain_chaza

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 05:16 pm:

Thank-you Officer Lafee for your Brave and Loyal support

It seems to me they/the others have all read TOO MANY BOOKS

You and I both know by EXPERIENCE you can throw all them them overboard when it comes to PENNIES

They have a "dreadful" reputation because all that works on the Heavier and Clumsy sails don't work in the Penny Classes of sail

With due respect Admiral Colin
Averaging down works well in the Penny Classes of sail in lieu of wide un-imaginal large wide stops

Tight stops are only for novice sea-cadets trained in Heavy-weights

Stops and averaging down are a bitter disappointment as one has to accept the fact that he could have been wrong on tact #1 and has been caught out in the short term

However it is FOLLY to believe that hoisting a #2 sail at a more favourable price is also a mistake

When sailing pennies/pink/red and even some Greenchips
all the rules of stop losses must be thrown overboard IMO

Often and more times than I can remember By the time one wakes up to pull the stop exit order this actually becomes the time to HOIST a sail

I must admit it is a real Bugger when you realize you have already hoisted the same sail at a higher price
BUT WHAT THE HECK!

A Sail, is a Sail, is a Sail irrelevant on whether you are already flying the same XYZ

What I am saying is that the First Order could be quite sound but the Sea can sometimes be very kind to brave sailors and give a second and even a third level of entry

I will keep you informed of my latest averaging down technique

From memory I averaged down on EVG lately
I prefer to call it ACCUMULATION!

I have yet to lose on any so-called averaging down technique over the last 5 years

If anything by virtue of the fact that I have had to dig deeper they have then tended to be my best performers in the end

Salute and Gods' speed

NB: Because they don't behave like the Clumsy heavy-weights I suppose is why they are sometimes refered to as "Dreadful"

PS Who has ever written a book on Pennies?

My First Officer Spids was the one who first alerted me to this phenomenon
Crikey I miss him!!!!

The last I heard is that 1st mate Spids sailed off into the sunset with Our Sweet Princess Ann

Talk about rotten luck!

(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 17, 2007)

pse

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Registered: 10-2007

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 05:32 pm:

Captain

Wonderful!
And I pegged you as incarcerated in “Plato’s (trading) Cave”.

I will watch your regatta entries with interest.

Unlike others, I am happy to trade someone else’s tips when they consistently generate high returns. No need for me to do all the work. And it allows me to give all my time to trading the XJO – much more stimulating.

PS.
Your desire to position me in your “imaginary nautical hierarchy”, with you at the top, and me at the bottom, is no longer tolerated (tempered to ensure I continue to have posting access).

I invite you to address me as PSE, Peter, Twiggy or Twiggy Sneakers. This is the extent of your choice. In return I agree to indulge your desire to be addressed as Captain.

If you cannot meet me half-way it shall be, “charlie”, henceforth, with NO return.

PPS
Where have you put my news posts? There is excellent information in those. You may not have liked the shorting, but going long on good news?

Don’t tell me that is also in contention!!

PPPS

Plato: The Allegory of the (Trading) Cave, from "The Republic"

Plato, the most creative and influential of Socrates' disciples wrote, "The Republic," in which he sums up his views in an image of ignorant humanity, trapped in the depths and not even aware of its own limited perspective. The essential point is that the prisoners in the cave are not seeing reality, but only a shadowy representation of it. Only a rare individual escapes the limitations of that cave and, through a long, tortuous personal journey, discovers a higher realm, a true reality, with a final, almost mystical awareness of Goodness as the origin of everything that exists.

Such a person is then the best equipped to govern in society, having a knowledge of what is ultimately most worthwhile in life and not just a knowledge of techniques; but that person will frequently be misunderstood by those ordinary folks back in the cave who haven't shared in the intellectual insight.

The importance of the allegory lies in Plato's belief that there are invisible truths lying under the apparent surface of things which only the most enlightened can grasp. Used to the world of illusion in the cave, the prisoners resist enlightenment.

At the end of the passage, Plato expresses another of his favorite ideas: that education is not a process of putting knowledge into empty minds, but of helping people realize that which they already know - the notion that truth is already embedded within our own self.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

bundy

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Post Number: 431
Registered: 03-2003

Rating:
Votes: 6


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 07:46 pm:

pse,

You're and arrogant little twat and I find the condescending and patronizing tone of your posts exceedingly annoying.

The danger with your posts is that someone, apart from yourself, will believe your bullshit.

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on November 19, 2007)

---
Bundy

Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.

mum

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Post Number: 189
Registered: 08-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 08:51 pm:

Whoaw, Bundy is back from China. Hi

I don't think you have to short on the up tick here. I read recently
that they have changed that rule in the USA too (about a month ago i think( and people are getting worried as what that would do to the market over there.)
Can you have GSL on pennies ?
Can you have GSL on these new ASX cfds. Don't think you can. Don't mention them in the Comsec info. I'm sure they would if they were able to

msparks

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Registered: 10-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 09:23 pm:

Hi Mum
GSL are more for longer term than what is being discussed i think as they have to be 5% minimum and also the extra cost of brokerage would factor heavily on day trade.

With leverage at 5% or 10% , a 5 % GSL of the price minimum stop loss is a big "hit" to the capital outlay and return on investment.
In fact, at maximum leverage of 5% it is a wipeout plus brokerage and any slippage.

I do not see the problem that Laffee and CC are outlining as so bad because i assume only 1 or 2% of capital would be risked on these crazy trades.
So a 10 times loss due to a takeover or someone getting news of some mugs shorting pennies and buying the crap out of the stock, knowing they have to cover

, would still leave them with 80 % of their capital and an education for a lifetime i presume.

Apologies PSE but those guys handing out the advice are the 3 wise men, and i would be extremely reluctant to ignore what they are trying to advise.

If you have done any research into naked options, i think you will find you may be in sinking boat if the inevitable happens one day.The moneybags link may be interesting?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nakedshorting.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/05/010505.asp

http://www.themoneyblogs.com/steve/my.blog/how-i-sell-naked-options-.html

" I have my own unique system "
" I buy high and sell low "
"Money is not the main game , it is sticking to the plan, through thick and thin , unwavering from a disciplined approach to share trading "

ingot54

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Post Number: 2007
Registered: 05-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 09:29 pm:

Following with interest and thanks for the entertainment everyone - some diverse views ... attitudes ... and moods!

Don't wish to support pro's or cons ... but offer the information that IG Markets now offer CFD's on MOST of the ASX.

A GSLO = GUARANTEED SL

But you pay a premium for the protection - some of the posters here are confusing it with an ordinary SL which is NOT guaranteed, is subject to slippage and may not be honoured if price gaps.

Dug's story about stumping up the FULL value of the position (eg ION - SGW - HWE et al) is correct ... with one difference:

CMC require FULL funding if the company is suspended, whether LONG or SHORT.

IG Markets require FULL funding ONLY FOR LONGS.

PSE - you are a true innovator and Pioneer.

Go for it - and thanks for sharing the concept and the positive attitude.

I am not a day-trader - I prefer the Long Term.

But when I get my 'puter working fully ... expect a post.

Best wishes

Ingot (who is hoping the thread gets back to discussing "My most successful trading strategy" soon.)

.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional

philr

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 10:33 pm:

pse

You have only been a member for less than a month and your already abusing people in general.

Not a good start.

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

coyotte

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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 10:43 pm:

Just seems so strange that "pse" posts about a unorthodox method and he is shot down in flames and the ring leader, one whom himself by his admissions is using unorthodox methods !.

Actually Capt there was a book put out by a Melbourne Broker many years ago about the Pennies/GreenChips -- it went on to become a listed PDF specializing in the Pennies -- namely GreenChip Investments --- which has now turned into the currently listed MCL or M2M Corp.

After that came Daryl Guppy in 1996 with "Share Trading " -- in this and all of Guppy's further books bar Trend Trading ,the Pennies are precisely what Guppy is specializing in -- even now in his News Letter there is always a Penny mentioned -- attend one of his seminars and the theme is on the Pennies , what I gather his public approach has trended towards the whales because that's what the clients want.

So it boils down to You and Guppy are trading the same Sector -- but with a totally opposing methodology -- or horror of horrors is Guppy actually doing one thing and saying another ?

Well Capt here is opportunity knocking at your door -- with all this new found wealth you could take a break from trading -- and author YOUR BOOK -- "Guppy Revealed " -- you would become the new GURU ! --- I await with abated breath .

bit I do not follow is how do posters here get these rankings of cadet, etc -- implying that they are newbies .
is it from the time they joined IC or the amount of posts ?
because if it is I can quite assure you that is a total load of cr*p -- a friend of mine whom I personally know changed from a investor to trader during the mid 90s and is still doing quite o/k at it , will not have a bar of any forum sites -- as he says the last thing he wants after a day's trading is " talking shop " -- yet if he joined this site he would immediately be branded a Cadet/Newbie .

PS: your post No. 2769 in the 25 Grand thread where you admonish Resillent1 may not be all it seems -- If for a typical example you divide the $25,000 up into 5 DIFFERENT positions then with a risk factor of 2% per position ,then the total risk factor becomes 10% ( of bank )

But if you divide it up into 6 equal portions of $4,000 leaving $1,000 for costs ---- 3 portions go initially into a newly developing trend (risk 2%) --- as the trend develops and is confirmed then another 2 portions , now with the rising STOP (risk 2%) --- as the trend matures the remaining 1 portion (risk 2%) --- so the whole $25,000 has been put into the ONE stock which along the way has been confirming it's own trend before adding a new position with never a greater risk than 2% (barring just plain bad luck like GYP ).--- and don't admonish me over the PS -- get stuck into Guppy.

and don't bother having a swipe at me PHILR Ive been here LONGER than you what a load of rot

(Message edited by coyotte on November 17, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

pse

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Post Number: 74
Registered: 10-2007

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Votes: 3


Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 11:31 pm:

Bundy

If u r going to insult me, at least be clever about it. And proof read before you post. Refer dug and CC/Charlie for sledging examples.

Charlie has published many demoralising posts in my name. But I look forward to them, I read them sometimes more than once so as savour and fully appreciate the often times subtle and complex nuances. Dug conjures equal literary ridicule.

In contrast, your post Bundy, it’s just, . . . well, . . . . can I be frank, boring! And I was tripped up on word two, “and”, it should be “an”.

I hope you don’t approach the market the way u approach your posts, bundy.

MSparks

Thanku for your contribution.

Unfortunately I cannot refer you to the first 50 or so posts from which you would be able to make more sense of my strategy. Management has taken it upon themself to delete them. Despite the fact they generated much intense debate.

But yes I agree. Lafee and Charlie have put forward some excellent points and I do appreciate their contributions. I don’t always agree, mostly because there has been a lack of attention to detail. Vital pieces of information have either been glossed over or ignored; resulting in my news trading strategy being misrepresented.

Refer my post 71 above for more info.

Ingot,

Thanku for your encouragement.
I look forward to your thoughts re my use of multiple moving averages re index trading. I’m interested to know if there are any parallels with your rainbow method.

Coyotte

Let em swipe, its about “quality NOT quantity”.

Thanku for bringing mister guppy to our attention. He is one of the few traders that has taught me something, I am indebted to him.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

bundy

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Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 2


Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 12:17 am:

pse,

How clever, you picked up a typo - big deal.

It doesn't change the fact that you are just a wannbe strutting around like a peacock big-noting himself.

You've taken in some gullible members of the forum - but those that have been trading longer than you have been out of nappies see right through you.

This forum has seen the likes of you before - blowins big-noting themselves - none of them hang around too long - you can only spin bullshit so far.

If you think I'm going to be taken in by an arrogant twat like you - you're even more stupid than I thought.

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on November 19, 2007)

---
Bundy

Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.

adetsec

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Registered: 10-2002

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 12:28 am:

pse
I like the cut of your jib. Sail on ol' chap. Am watching and learning a new style of trading with an open mind. Well done. Keep sticking it up the constant knockers.

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

msparks

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Registered: 10-2004

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Votes: 1


Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 01:09 am:

PSE
Why don't you just post your trades in the weekly comp or in a new thread.
It may be easier than defending your methodology.
Crikey, you could even start outperforming the skippa, but we will never know if he cannot learn how to attach an excel file.

boat notes.xls (249.3 k)

adetsec

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 01:17 am:

Heaps of giggles Sparksy.
The boat is bigger than Charlie's ever been on but smaller than his ego (if you know what I mean?)

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

mum

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 07:20 am:

Boat notes !!!!!!!!!!! gag and to think I opened it.
Just a lot of expense and high maintenance with lots of issues

cat_lady

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 08:51 am:

PSE

your first notes have not been deleted, they've been archived. see top of thread. once a thread hits 50 or, then it's tucked away at the top of the page. "ARchive through 7 November"

cat lady

Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

pse

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 09:25 am:

MSPARKS

I have actually posted two trades live. And if you look at a one minute chart compared to the times of posting, my trade made ~60% return in less than 24hrs. This makes me the winner of last weeks comp.

**
Why don’t I go in the comp.?

ANSWER: The competition conflicts with my trading philosophy - namely, "trade what is, not what might be". I rely on market depth, momentum, liquidity and a healthy intraday 1 min chart before trading - the comp. denies that.

**
Here are the actually entries, which you will find above.

POST 53 - Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 11:21 am

I hope someone out there got onto KAL today!! In fact it may even have something left in it?????????????????

Why didnt i mention KAL earlier Captain!?

I must concede news is not my focus at present, trading the XJO is. And u no doubt will be gob-smacked once again, (and doubt-ridden) to hear me say it is even more profitable than news trading.

But, still learning. One day i will post a thorough synopsis.

au revoir

POST 57 - Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 02:25 pm

do u think KAL is a short for tomorrow dug?

i've seen it before, taken to ridiculous heights day one, close very close to the high or at high, rallies in the first 15min at open next day, then dies a severe death.

what do u think, dug???????????
KAL short opportunity tomorrow!

**
Now I trade intraday. I don’t know what’s going to happen until it begins.
But if at 11.21 Wed 14 you had opened KAL = entry 18c, close 24c @ 4.10pm same day.

Day two a short was indicated.
1 min chart signaled short at 25c and exit at close same day 19c.

Both trades = ~ 60% return

The format used with KAL is clearly detailed in my strategy prior to the KAL postings.

**
I have already been challenged re posting my trades. And I publically accepted. Hence, KAL.
So I have certainly put my money where my mouth is. And I will do so again without hesitation because my news trading strategy is high probability trading.

Note – these trades only occur once every 6 weeks or so. But if you actually do the maths, u will see that one could live solely off news trades.

**
PS your boat notes are a unifying force

**
Thank u Cat Lady
I must now publically apologize to “The Captain”.
You did not have my posts removed.
Please except my sincere apologies.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

msparks

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 09:35 am:

Sorry about that Mum

You are spot on in your analysis however, there would be a lot of maintenance and issues which unfortunately would require a great deal of personal attention and carefull preparation, to sort through each one and achieve the desired outcome of 100% return in each regatta.

dug

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 10:01 am:

At least this thread gets posts.Notice how last night there was not a single Short Term post,not even to the Weekly Comp.
Peter/pse I'm thinking of leaving you to it in this thread.I'm a bit dismayed that the "Newbie" steve-david[think that's who it is?]Anyway this new poster came in on Time Delay and hasn't returned since.Maybe Colin hasn't had time to clear his In Box?

Last nights posts including most of all Bundys were a bit disappointing.Not much content and I especially disliked Bundy's allegations of you,Peter as a "Blow In".
That's the problem as I see it with this Forum.New Interesting Posters arrive and get immediately pigeon holed,while running a Gauntlet of"Experts".
While just "run of d'Mill" Newers seem to be cowed into some little niche and only post ever in the Weekly Comp.
If One sticks a particular share post up you get left in this Limbo of No Reply.
Whatareya?Shy?and you're expecting to do the Lone Trip against the Market?

What I reckon is that there is this attitude of a Nanny State around here that has concentrated too much on Rampers being expelled,banished or at least harassed.
Do you realise that some of our Southern Senior Members are on a "Never Tip" trip?All tipping should really be Banned here and that includes Identifying,Buying,Holding,Selling a particular share with Live2Air,as it's happening commentary.
This attitude,I think is Killing this Place.
These "Senior Members" are wanting one of those Yank Sites where all these Fancy TA theories are laid out for Edification.[IMHO]Seen one of these?There's usually some kind of religious/Other Plane philosophy going on in them too.Mostly I think they are for giving a profile to the participants so they can sell their books or go on Lecture Tours,hold $10grand a pop Master Classes etc.

Peter/pse I think [but don't quote me as absolutely certain]but I think Bundy may be identifying you as one of these,you know swooping in here,touting you know how to do 10grand to a 100k in a year and see if you can pick up some suckers or Fresh Meat in my parlance.
If you were from Melbourne still,I'd probably go along with Bundy!!
but as you've moved to Brisbane,I'm banking on you have been inculcated with the Brisso Style of aiding d'UnderDog as well as-Bugger this I don't want to be alone in my room,Isolated Going to take my Act on d'Road.

So anyhow,hope you don't get driven away.Also hope that if/when you come up with a share you don't merely want to Day Trade that you lay it out Live in Short or even long term.
I'll give you some "directions" on how the Captain wants it done so he don't get all spiteful at you,that's of course if you care about Charlie's Opinion.
I can also tell you WHY Charlie "excuses" himself from doing before/during and Conclusion Posts.

but not now later.
cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

msparks

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 10:17 am:

PSE
I did look hard at the first post you made and identified the stocks need to fall on day 2 or 3 after the huge breakout.
( maybe not always, there was only 4 mentioned )

What i don't get, is how you can get short on these little penny's with click of a mouse using cfd's.
Do they give you leverage, t plus 3 , i read they are only day trade, must be closed by 4 pm , crikey a market maker could clean you out with those limitations simply by taking a huge long position when the sell depth was weak.
How would you get out of the trade, or do you strictly screen watch in these situations ?

What sort of percentage of capital would you expose on these short trades on pennies.

Please continue with the index trading, i have refinanced the cfd account again

and looking forward to regaining the $7,000 dollar educational costs donated to all and sundry so far .
Just my rotten luck, i was shorting all the time , waiting for this big dip and run out of money just in time for the markets to take the big slide.
Is that a plan or wot !!!
Have no idea where they are going now, suspect more down but who knows what bankers can engineer with rubbery figures and Monopoly( the game ) money.

pse

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Votes: 0


Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 10:50 am:

MSPARKS

Soon I will be abandoning this news trading thread. Almost all a person needs to know, whether for or against, is included here somewhere.

At such time I will continue with my index trading thread. XJO trading is my passion and I would like to share my strategy in detail. But the strategy is a work in progress. It’s new territory for me. But I believe I am on the way to developing some reliable entry and exit signals.

Which once published, any can test to determine their validity.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

mum

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 10:57 am:

Dug , I have to agree. This is a nasty forum.It has an air of seek and destroy compared to some other forums. Others are worse mind you. Its sad. Attack ,attack
One has to think twice before posting here.
Its probably best not posting up a trade you are going to take because doubt can be put in your mind. Seems to be a 50/50 chance it will work anyway. You will be ridiculed if it goes against you , Murphys law will mean you will have a run of them : )
On other forums I read of people having great success trading the news.
perhaps that to will stop being so profitable as more join in and if volatility subsides. This has probably only started to work because of the miners and discoveries, mostly dodgy results too when you find out what they actually are.Hence the plummet
I'm trying to educate myself in what is actually a real result. They are the ones that keep on powering ahead
Hard task I'm discovering, sigh

captain_chaza

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 11:15 am:

pse

Based in your "NEWS" tricky tack of only 1 trade every six weeks how are admitted into the elite Top 20%

There are approx 2000 live news feeds every trading day

ie: 10,000 /week
ie: 60,000 /6 weeks

That's a lot of palaver to sift through for what I would call a meaningless 1-6 hour maximum joy ride

Salute and Better luck with your next trading system

dug

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 11:50 am:

mum belinda,
in the Old Days like back in 1960's/70's it wasn't so much News as Tips.
After All there was only Snail Mail and they were starting to drop the twice a day Delivery!!
So the Company making an Announcement left all this "lead" time.It was nothing for that to be a Fortnight even a Month til ya average,outta dLoop,pilgrim got actual confirm or deny.
Ya have to realise that there was No Media on Pennies so one couldn't get the Word there.oooh mum,then there was such ployssss.
Like on Family Hollies,we could be driven around Industrial Estates.My dad the auditor eyeballing the real estate assets of family but Listed concerns,mum.Back then it was real common that Land Assets were valued in BalSheets at HISTORICAL.
doya follow?They coulda been bought back in the 1890's,70/80years before for a coupla Quid.

Anyhow that's how then ya FActfinded TakeOver Targets.

So I don't think NEWS trading is going to wear out,got a Use by Date but instead of hanging round waiting for a bright morning Open to come some fine day?
I think your thumbnail lists of mineral content etc giving what one can Anticipate,Belinda is superior.

Much Happier Trading.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

bundy

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 12:53 pm:

Re: pse

The issue is not so much that he is a blow-in - but his condescending attitude - talking to forum participants as if they little kids or simpletons.

None of us came down in the last shower, and pse has no idea of anyone's individual trading prowess - yet he craps on that he is but one of the few that knows the secret to successful trading.

Give me a break ..................................

Below are a few examples of the comments and tone I find condescending ..........

"Attention to detail gentleman. Rise above small mind."

"But, I am a compassionate trader (do those two words go together in the one sentence!?), so I will make available to you what only the 20% group truly understand."

"Now come in closely, this is important. You to Charlie, . . . . closer. (sic)
The key to entering the 20% group is your mind, your personality."

"it is lonely, as u know, having the attitude of a top 20 percenter, the 80% just dont understand it, cannot understand."

"Stay alert!! This is especially directed at the dissenters. You’ve been at it for decades and you’re still in the 80% group."

Well, I'm alert, and I know a poseur and wanker when I see one - the bullshit meter has gone off the scale with his posts.

Some forum members consider my attitude as discouraging to posters - particularly newbies.

Well, I have never had a go at a genuine poster that had substance - or even one that has made an error - if I have challenged them - it has been based on fact and I have outlined my case in full.

But I do take exception at being taken for a fool and fed a load of bullshit that I am expected to swallow from a blow-in with no established bona fides.

---
Bundy

Good judgment is gained through experience.
Experience is gained through poor judgment.

coyotte

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Post Number: 332
Registered: 12-2002

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Votes: 1


Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 01:08 pm:

On the points you raise bundy -- yes very true .

The point I,m coming at is this guy is just showing a different approach to a old method ---- and is being howled down for it --- reminds of the 1980s in Ozz if you dare mentioned the word Trading or worst still Chart Reading.

there is nothing new in what pse is doing just his approach to it.

ps: I'd like to see the fiqures after 1000/100 sub grouped trades for the viability .

Cheers

(Message edited by coyotte on November 18, 2007)

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

pse

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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 01:43 pm:

Bundy, the spike has occurred already. You should have opened your position long ago and be well and truly closed by now. Cant you tell that the buyers are thinning, and the instos have made their parting comments.

If you are still holding I suggest you sell up and find another trade.

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

colin_twiggs

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Votes: 1


Monday, November 19, 2007 - 12:27 pm:

bundy,
Please take care to comply with the forum rules:
treat other members with respect at all times.

pse,
If you want credibility, join the trading competition.

Regards,
Colin

ingot54

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 09:28 am:

As this thread is called "My Most Successful Trading Strategy" I think it must be about my turn! Everyone else has had their say, and it is degenerating somewhat into a pi**ing comp.

I used to be a prolific word-smith on this site, and have recently begun to spin a few more yarns here.

But my most successful trading strategy has been to shut up - to focus on myself and what I was dong - right or wrong.

It is not possible to chase 2 rabbits.

Here is what I found:

I am better off than the rest of my siblings by far - why?
I am still not where I want to be - why?
Lotto winners mostly end up broke again - why?
I earn above the average income (better actually) of my friends - why?

It is not possible to focus on such issues while rabbiting along on a forum. I needed to be a bit more reclusive to focus on this stuff.

A good analolgy or two sometimes does the job better, though I will leave you to find your own responses:

*********************************************
ANALOGY #1
You walk around town with $1 in your pocket.
No worries - you meet a few friends, chat awhile and go home.

You walk around town with $100 in your pocket - same result.

You walk around town with $1000 in your pocket.
You know where your wallet is at all times.
You can feel it.
You keep your hand on your back pocket when you stop to chat.
You go home.

You walk around town with $10,000 in your wallet.
You walk more briskly than usual.
You don't stop to chat.
Your hand never leaves the pocket the wallet is in.

You have $400,000 in a cashable bank cheque.
It has to get into the bank.
You don't go alone - you make sure you have a relative or two with you, and you ignore anyone you meet on the street - you go directly to the bank.

*********************************************
ANALOGY #2
You have a very long ladder - the base is firmly set on a concrete step in such a way as it can not possibly slip. It reaches up to the roof of your split-level home actually over 15 metres.

Two strapping/strong men are holding the ladder so that it will not waver.

You step onto the bottom rung - you are able to stand there holding on with only one hand. Same thing happens with the second rung, and the third.

On the fourth rung you find you hold on with both hands ... it is now a big step down to the ground.

However, you climb rapidly to the 8th rung, step after step, confidently.

By the tenth rung, you are advancing one step at a time - holding tightly, and occasionally checking how far below you the ground is getting.

You are now just 5 metres above the ground - about half-way to the roof.

You advance another 2 rungs, and become aware of your heart - it is beating rapidly, and thumping around a bit! Your hands are feeling a bit clammy as the perspiration begins to appear.

You begin to question whether you really needed to get to the roof - after all this is a fair effort.

The ladder is still rock-steady - in fact it has not moved one centimetre.

You become aware there is a mild breeze blowing, and there are still 3 metres left to advance to the roof.

That roof looks very far away now ... you can advance only 2 rungs further ... then...!

*********************************************
ANALOGY #3

You win $800,000 in Lotto! (Woo Hoo!)

You make plans to invest the capital and live from and re-invest the earnings, while you pursue your long-cherished hobby.

At first you keep it to yourself, and nothing much changes.

Then you share the news with a brother, who as it just so happens, needs a new car.

"Just $10,000 will do. I can trade in the old one to make up the difference."

Then your closest friend comes along with "this really good business idea - just $100,000 will set it up and we will be on the road to riches."

Your sister has been living in rental poverty - and has been saving to buy a house. She is $15,000 short of the deposit ..."

Your church has a new building programme "Just $20,000 will top it off..."

The charities have heard of your win ... "Just $5000 will feed/immunise/provide fresh water/housing/sanitation/a hospital ..."

And so on for months.

Most promise to "pay it back when ...!"

It is 7 months since your win. Your dream of investing the capital and re-investing the proceeds and living much more easily is ... where?

What has happened in the 3 analogies?

Could it be something to do with:

FEAR
PAIN
The power of "NO"
CHANGE
CHANGING FRIENDS

Something else?

Now you have a strategy ... for thinkers.

LEAP ... AND THE NET WILL APPEAR

WHEN THE STUDENT IS READY THE MASTER WILL APPEAR

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional

ingot54

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Post Number: 2012
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 07:37 pm:

Once again I have the power to stop a thread dead in its tracks!

Knew it was too tough for you!
No comment anywhere?

The "Strategy" is no strategy at all.

The strategy is simply to change what you do and have darn good reasons for what you do.

"FEAR" evolves from previously experiencing "PAIN" - the more pain, the stronger the fear. Soon fear will exist or manifest merely from the suggestion or association with previously painful events.

The strategy is to recognise this.

The strategy is to deal with it.

How?

I invite you once again, to think.

Why would having $400,000 cashable Bank Cheque in your possession increase your fear, over what you might feel from carrying only $1?

Why would you feel any less secure at the top of a stable and perfectly secure ladder, than you do on the bottom rung?

Why do people dream for years of winning lotto, and when they do get that windfall, eventually end up exactly as they were before ... only worse - some want to kill themselves - when they realise they had their chance and blew it!

Think, dear reader.

Something has to change ... it must.

A final analogy:

When we were born into a family (most of us) we became a part of the family circle.

We were fed information by the family, and believed implicitly every word we were told - 100% truth.

Our brain takes this up in many forms - ego/superego/emotions/belief system/conscious and subconscious memory/attitude/demeanor and character to mention a few of them.

Later in life - generally after the age of 35yrs - 40 yrs - when most of us are strongly set in our ways, and strongly (generally) resistant to change, it begins to dawn on us that there may be more than we have been led to believe.

For example - most become thoroughly sick and tired of the cycle of having sufficient money/not enough money - plenty of time/not enough time and so on.

A desire to break out of the Family circle of beliefs is conceived, but suddenly, right at that point something intervenes to stop us.

Its name is FEAR.
Fear of PAIN which accompanies CHANGE.

Human beings naturally tend to AVOID pain but SEEK pleasure.

This does, in the general course of events, get us into quite a bit of bother at times.

So how do we avoid this?

Too easy - just EMBRACE CHANGE!
Either that, or stay in poverty - free choice.

The poor bloke who won $800,000 in Lotto could NOT change - he could not say "NO" and he could NOT change his friends. Little wonder that he rejoined them at their end of the poverty spectrum.

CHANGE.

Get yours today - comes free with a "BURNING DESIRE" thrown in.

Act now, before the Christmas rush.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional

peter1

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 07:52 pm:

Perhaps you should have posted in the "Trading- Psychology" thread.

ingot54

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 08:02 pm:

Quite possibly would have been more appropriate Peter1.

But I had a sneaky agenda here - to try and break a developing impasse where the thread was degenerating into pocket billiards.

However ... I do think with a bit of license the "Strategy" could qualify at the fringe.

There was little being mentioned anyway that I could see, regarding "Best Trading Strategy".

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional

dug

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 11:01 am:

When the Student is ready the Master will Appear.

Of course,you Ingot 54 know the esoteric meaning of this "Motto" but I'd just like to point out to those who may have been "handicapped" by a Third Rate Education that it does NOT mean some mentor/expert/even guidance orificer will "descend" to impart the next stage "Knowledge" on a "Good" Student.
It means the Student will themselves be a Master when they're ready.

This is also a motto discussed by Anarchical Thinkers and sung about by the Stranglers "No More Heroes" and even Tina Turner "We don't need another Hero".

ps-you better not be falling into voting for that Bludger Johnny Howard on Saturday,Ivan mate pal.Change is Always Best!!

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

ingot54

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 11:46 am:

Dug ... I will not be voting for John Winston Howard on Saturday.

Nor will I be voting for Maxine ... I am a far cry from Bennelong.

Here on the sunny Sunshine Coast we don't worry too much about national politics - we have our own local candidates and I have my hands full assessing which of them will deliver the very best representation for our electorate of Fisher.

http://www.pm.gov.au/past_pm/biographies/fisher.cfm

(Andrew Fisher was PM on three separate occasions - kind of a Kimbo Beasley in a sense - but whereas Kimbo was Labor leader three separate times, Andy was actually PM three separate times. No other Federal leader has achieved that!)

My vote will help to ensure that when there IS a change of government, the landslide will have to be even bigger than any we have ever experienced to date.

imho it will not be this time.

There is always next time - I think Kevvy 007 will weather one loss. Pity Labor if Rudd is tossed out ... who will pick up the job then? I note at the launch that Whitlam, Hawke and Keating gave Rudd the "Kiss of Death."

I think we need to see how he performs over a three-year apprenticeship for the master-job. He is a bit like Mark Latham - thrown in when there was not much other talent available - but STILL untested in a leadership capacity, despite the rhetoric.

I note too that Rudd is an ex-Queenslander. Queenslanders do not have a very good record at achieving the top job here in Oz.

The "smart" money is on Rudd, but do not underestimate Big John.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional

dug

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 12:18 pm:

It's the Public Service that needs shaking out,back into some semblance of Order.
Rudd seems to be more willing to take Public Service advice and not demand it be always to his Liking.He's not a Glory Fat Head like Johnny!!
Unfortunately due to the 11 year Reign,the Pub Serv has been "salted" etc and of course,a Free Thinker like you probably despises the Public Service etc blah
but like religion,politics is best not discussed.

cheers.

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

coyotte

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 01:34 pm:

what a boring day on THE ASX.

thought the " STUDENT bit " meant that the student will recognize the MASTER -- load of cr*p anyway

cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

coyotte

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 01:49 pm:

WAITING !!!

JUST GOT FEED UP WITH QUEST
GOING DOWN TO THE LOCAL FOR SOME FAIR-DINKUM ENLIGHTMENT

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

ingot54

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Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 03:26 pm:

yeah ... load of crud, Coyotte.

As I don't imbibe (yet anyway) have my share mate!

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction"

Now THERE's some enlightenment for you!

This is what happens to a thread when it goes off-topic.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional

philr

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Thursday, November 22, 2007 - 06:17 pm:

Talk about trading the news. Did any one get on to FDL today I was lucky enough to pick up a few at .024c when I saw the news come through.

Volume was reasonable I guess just a mere 1.93 billion.
Not too shabby.

The company announced a new iron ore target of between 325 and 390 million tons. Averaging 56% iron.

The tenement adjoins FMG's joint venture tenement.

Where were you PSE.

fdl

Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

dug

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Tuesday, November 27, 2007 - 01:11 pm:

are you keeping an eye on KAL,pse.In Trading Halt with news tomorrow[Wednesday]
Could be just a Placement which more often than not causes a price retreat to the place price but I've been checking KAL out and seems to have New Management and some "progressive" plan so it COULD be some more interesting announce hits tomorrow.
KAL has a relative small Listed Share Base compared to others so a Placement even may not drag it down.Especially a Sophisticated Invest involve at 20 cents+[which is ~ the weeks before VWAP]Could even give it a Lift more than currently.

Anyway,are you watching KAL with me,pse?

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

pse

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Tuesday, November 27, 2007 - 01:40 pm:

dug,

"i am" watching KAL.
i'm aware its in a trading halt.
and will read the news release when it arrives - who knows! maybe some tradable news coming.

did u c FDL?

"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"

coyotte

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Tuesday, November 27, 2007 - 11:25 pm:

came across this post at Kitco -- may be of interest.

QUOTE:
I have read that many of the Stock Picking Software out there have been successful. It takes a person about 10 minutes to read a 2,500-word, front-page feature story in the Wall Street Journal. Computer programs increasingly being used by investors to parse news stories can process one in about three one-hundredths of a second.

High-frequency investors such as hedge funds are using news mining platforms like those offered by StreamBase to troll through thousands of electronic feeds of streaming text to identify key phrases on which to trade.

Popular phrases include "lowers its outlook" or "raises guidance" or even buzzwords like "stellar performance" that could potentially push a stock lower or higher.

Hedge funds, with their rapid-fire trading style, often allow the news mining platforms to make trades on their own, capitalizing on the technology's speed.

However, these so-called algorithms are little more than key word searches and are useless for longer-term investors like us GOLD bugs. Where GOLD is concerned I don't think you will get any information from these algorithms that would be any better or more profitable than the detailed analysis of real-time price tick information.---- UNQOUTE

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".

dug

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Friday, November 30, 2007 - 10:28 am:

Key Words,hey coyotte?
Not just in Announcements but in Newspaper Stories.Is that what the use of Computer Power is coming to?
Imagine if they started scanning ShareChat Sites?
Why bloody krisbarry and his ilk could always get a Winner.At least til some human hand intervened on the Computer being hoodwinked by a "key phrase".

No worries here at IC,right? You could employ any junior "researcher" to monitor the so few IC posts on "Hot Prospects".
Poor kid would be out of a job in a week thru lack of IC Input with us all happy cos we kept a Secret.
It rankles me,coyotte that you asked for a simple scan technique on IC software and got Zilch reply.Suppose that member is on holidays and couldn't get back to you?

Anyway,thanks for the above post on Key Word Computing.
cheers

Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

coyotte

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Friday, November 30, 2007 - 11:44 am:

Yeah have to agree with you Dug on all your above points.

the bit I found a bit strange about the "Scan" in Question is that it is not the Scan being used by the System Developer or the Site's Forum users --- I posted up possible selections last week in just one price range using the Correct Scan (which I posted earlier in the thread u are refering to) -- there is a heap of them , so why the silence ?

GMI is one that I took out at 2.12 .

Cheers

The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".