My Most Successful Trading Strategy
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     lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 731
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 10:05 pm: |  
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PSE,
I have never shorted a penny, nor will I ever. As the risk is too great. Your downside is limitless and your upside limited to the price (rather small) of the share. Why would I put myself in such a situation. Surely that cannot be rational.
Your strategy may be right 99% of the time. It may feel good pocketing profit afer profit. That may strengthen your resolve to continue following your system. But on your hundredth trade you may loose 20 times what you have previously made in all your trades.
I am the the biggest skeptic around. I don't believe the news and think listening to it makes people stupid. But I also know that the one time out of a hundred the news is right the result is going to be so big that it could bankrupt me if I had short exposure.
You CANNOT know everything. You can limit your downside.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2823
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 10:11 pm: |
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet PSE
Your comment about turning $10,000 into $100,000 in a year reminds me of an Old sailors tale
It was once accepted that the Polynesians were the best sea-farers of all time having populated all the far distant islands on the Pacific Ocean
When you then study history you find out that they had to leave their islands because they had simply burnt out all the timbers for cooking fuel including the building materials for cooking fuel
They had no choice but to go to sea
As the Long termers say
If you throw a bottle in the ocean it could circum-navigate the Earth and this is probably true
What is not known is
"How many lives were lost "Island hopping"
What I mean is
If one can turn $10,000 into $100,000 in a year
How many $10,000 year losses do we need to budget for?
IE:
If you can only do it Once every ten years
Why bother?
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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pse
Member
Username: pse
Post Number: 62
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 05:46 am: |
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Lafee, CC
re trading news pennies:
STEP 1
reserving judgement and from a distance, peruse the horizon
STEP 2
reserving judgement, move in closely, lift every log, every leaf, every stone - fully inform yourself of the mechanisms at play
STEP 3
draw your conclusions from a position that is informed and clear
Lafee I can accept, but you CC, you !!!. . . . I am surprised you only partially tackled STEP 1, then jumped direct to STEP 3, bypassing the all important STEP 2, which affords the "informed and clear" portion of STEP 3.
I shake my head and turn away.
CC re your post 2823:
as I stated in the original post:
No one wants to hear that though, they ridicule and say it cant be done. - i rest my case.
** To Sum:
That's it for me. My focus is trading. I have no interest in convincing people of my reality.
I wish you both the best in the trading journey.
"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2581
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 09:04 am: |
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SO I can't even have recreation time with the wife,do I have to do my duties all night here now too?
Charles-You've forgotten your saying-Why am I the last to be told!!?!PSE did in an earlier post set out the Broker now doing shorts on pennies.While in exile,I learnt that NAV was now able to be shorted and here's a link where one finds the ASX now "approved" shorting shares with the percent allowable etc-www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt
Now it would appear particular brokers are borrowing outside this list to also "allow" shorting of shares unlisted but go thru the list and you'll find many low turnover shares like NAV qualify.
The same thing is happening with CFD's Long with penny shares joining their Lists on a 50/50 gearing.CVI is an example I recently learnt of.
I can only find out about these Developments from Sites other than Incredible.This place is in the Doldrums.Posters here are very few and have "withdrawn" to exclusive threads predominately working on your dreaded FA,Charlie.
New posters like pse have to run a gauntlet past you,Charles and your often quite purposefully obscure mutterings.
Didn't I read once how you are "Famous" for never giving any Method of Share Picking out to Anyone? Even to your "accolytes" gathered at ya hamburger shop?Always you use the dicotomy of mottos like on Volume Analysis It's-
Someone is buying for every Sale so Volume is Manipulated so say I[ie you]
There are dozens of threads where you've come Down with what seems some Definitive,Last Word Decree.You get questioned about it and you never Reply[Market Depth Devil etc is an example]
Now you'll go all huffy and babble about how you don't Need to post here,your time is precious etc blah but it's not like the old days,Chuck.Maintaining your precious Ego is no longer the Agenda Principally of this Site.
Take my word for it,OK?
pse-I'll be real disappointed if you go off this site and isolate yourself back in your trading room.Lafee made some good points for your consideration,even CC did but,well,it's pretty weak of a Brisso to take Umbrage,pack up and go home over such a petty spat.No one Knows it All,this site used to be a Learning experience for everyone and it's hoped it will be again,once we can shake-up the Hierachy[Heil!/Hail] of the Past.
I'm off til the afternoon.
regards.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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coyotte
Member
Username: coyotte
Post Number: 321
Registered: 12-2002
Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:36 am: |
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I can understand pse dilemma
it comes back to the old arguments between "buy & hold " and "long term traders" just that now it's got down to Position Traders V's Day/Short Term .
It's why Position only Traders are blind to CFDs and Shorts -- they simply do not understand how to use these tools and just out of sheer ingorance blast any one that do'es
Trouble is the Shorter the term , the more you have to be aware of your psyche and you certainly cannot trade correctly whilst others are nitpicking at you ---- this thread has done a grave injustice to to pse imo
Note : I am a Position & Short Term Trader with the occasional Day Trade --- and yes I use Shorts and CFDs where appropriate ---- learn to use these tools properly , then you can give bias advice about them .
Good luck pse -- but thought this would happen.
The "Sea of Uncertainty" is defeated by the nimble vessel "Probability", not the unwieldy vessel "Prediction".
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eric
Member
Username: eric
Post Number: 177
Registered: 09-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 10:55 am: |
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Coyote, well said
Eric
www.tradingaustralianshares.com
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steve_david
Member
Username: steve_david
Post Number: 1
Registered: 11-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 06:15 pm: |
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Hi pse and dug
i am only new to the game of shares.
My story is basically i got interested in shares 25 years ago but never did anything, in the last 12 months i have finally got around to start trying to educate myself in shares. I thought the way to go was read as much about a company/s as possible and then take the plunge.
I am now at the stage of taking that plunge.
I never considered short term/day trading as you guys obviously do, is there any possibility that either of you could take a 1st year apprentice under your wing and hopefully turn me into a tradesman.
Reading the entire thread started by pse made my eyes open, to think i was hoping for 10-15% returns...
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2582
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 12:51 pm: |
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steve_david-
yesterday a post was put here asking pse to widen his profile.tell us something about him self,age,previous occupations etc.
As a newcomer you are on time delay,possibly because you didn't put in your address and phone number etc.So while your posting here,fill in your profile details completely and you may be released from parole.
You're free to ask questions,make as many naive comments as you like in your search for knowledge but here's a tip
don't think anyone is some Master to apprentice you to.
Mentors they're called now,right?Well you be real wary of anyone private emailing you offering this service,at a price or even for free.
You're in Virtual World.There's Spivs and Charlatans cruising here a plenty,Remember You are Ultimately On Your OWN,ya have HAVE to Work it Out for Yourself how to DO the Market.
anyway welcome to IC and I'm looking forward to your future postings.
Happy Trading.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2583
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 01:24 pm: |
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coyotte 'n' eric
I know I,like the Captain,always take a stand against Shorting and CFD's.In my case it's because I've seen too many decent,upright citizens ruined by going fast tracking.
I know it's backed by Institutions and a Lot of Note Worthy Books that Leverage is "Safe" if done "prudently" like perhaps how you two do it,but...
well,you did read the Captains'Tale about when Shorting first came in?How the Broker went Broke? Do you still follow that History Repeats? That Brokers struggle for Market Share is a Driving Force?What seems plausible even decent today gets Twisted by a Dynamic Market doing a Repeat?
Still I completely agree that I'm not a Day Trader.I'm not even a Trader working this as a Day Job to Eat.I'm not chasing the Bucks just learning[still]how to go me vs the Market.The Only Game in Town.
I don't do "If ya can't beat them?Join 'em".
I Do "get an angle on them and try and thrash 'em with it"
That's why I concentrated on Small Cap Shares.I'd hoped to avoid their silliness by going where THEY couldn't but the Powers that Be seem to now letting their dogs loose on my "turf".
So I guess I'll just have to hone some tools,methods that these Flash Harry Short CFD'ers haven't read about in their books,haven't been encouraged by the Herd to Follow as some Gospel.
I want to be still standing when the Wake Up comes.
regards.
ps- pse/pete how about ELK today?also noticed RAU and Your one KAL.later I'll post in Short Term on ELK and RAU and also give you a History Lesson here on d'Old Days and News.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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pse
Member
Username: pse
Post Number: 67
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 02:38 pm: |
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dug,
did you unload ELK at profit today??
that is a nasty looking shooting star, i think its called!
peter
"TRADE WHAT IS, NOT WHAT MIGHT BE"
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2585
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 02:57 pm: |
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no pse.didn't sell ELK.
I'm trying to work on an EOD system so I can enjoy Summer!!
It's all very complicated.Not for everyone maybe not even Me!!
but basically I don't sell in the first half hour from Opening unless I've figured Otherwise!!
but in ELK's Case it was back at low 80's by 10:30am,I'd missed the Flurry to a Buck,I reckon it's "FA" leads me to conclude it'll go back there plus more so I just wear today's events.
but it Did show anticipation of News Method to ya,pse hey?
did you short KAL?
RAU was a great opportunity,today,right?
Can you tell me something about the Mechanics of Shorting that I asked yesterday?Can you cut out/take your profits anytime/anywhere or does that Old Rule of a Shorter can only close on a up Retrace still apply?
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2587
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 04:57 pm: |
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