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     dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2512
Registered: 07-2005
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Votes: 1
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 10:18 am: |  
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Pse in this thread's initial post had these shares as illustration,examples of News Driven Massive Gains-
ELK;IMI;IRM;PRR;WGP.
I propose to dissect and discuss these to elaborate/refine the possible use of this method.
ELK-News had been"pre-announced"by issuing After Close of Previous day to Rocket so there was plenty of time to draw interested parties.
Open was characterised by a Wiiiide Gap and one didn't get into ELK that day by some calculation conservative based on "I'll GO on a Retrace" or rather you'd better have joined the Bid Depth that morning early to get that bottom tail.
Volume on "first day" was "modest" in Hindsight compared to the following one which at 59mil was equal to the WHOLE of ELK's Shares Listed.Of course every one who previously held didn't actually Sell but obviously a lot of people traded Multiple Times in the one day for turnover to =All Listed.
This second day proved an opportunity for even more percent gain as long as you sold in the Wick to 80ish!!
If you look at the second day candle,one sees how anyone who first bought and HELD on that day,ALL ended up down on the Day which is real disappointing for a pilgrim and remember this was on Record Volume.
the chart
Now I'm taking ELK as an example of a share that issued Good News,Got a Massive Gain but still should be seriously considered by us as a Could Do it Again.I've been babbling about this aspect of Momentum Trading in the other threads[Trading 25k,Devil Market Depth,even Sophisticated Investors]but ELK is to me a Classic Example.
It has LOW Shares on ISSUE/Listed.This puts it into my desired Tight/Restricted Supply that prompts significant gains on any News Positive,makes it a GOer.
Coincidentally this also has an increasing Substantial Holder of now some 19%.His name is Healy and you may not have heard of him?
One often sees this forum's members making note of some Institution or other taking a Substant Hold in some crummy Blue Chip or Top 300'er and this being taken as some "positive affirmation" for their choice.
You've seen the Rave-"XYZ fund who are Really Good[at placing Other People's Money]and THEY like this...etc blah"
well,Healy is an individual.Runs his OWN Money.He's a Builder from Dubbo and is getting a reputation as one[if not THE ONE]of Australia's Private GUN TRADERS.
He bought Paladin at 10centish in BULK,he's NAV's Major ShareHolder,google his name[get it in full from the Sub Note]and you'll find him all over a lot of the Material Sector Success Stories.
Now,this is a fella if ya want to LEARN something,one should watch,take note of.All the things you've heard about pennies being Manipulated by "Evil Traders" are possibly personified in our Healy but it's certainly some kind of a SIGN when He's on the Register.
Some crummy Insto like Perpetual is in the DUST compared to this individual Healy.
or so I reckon.
gotta go
cheers.
(Message edited by dug on November 03, 2007)
(Message edited by dug on November 03, 2007)
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1097
Registered: 10-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 11:13 am: |
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Great post Dug.
That is 8.4million he dropped into ELK, a heavy hitter !!!
And i thought PL was a heavy hitter, ha.
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philr
Member
Username: philr
Post Number: 290
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 02:25 pm: |
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Dug
I did a google on him as you suggested came up with him also into dyl back in 2005
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/ast?s=DYL.AX
Pity these institutional links on Yahoo were not a bit more current.
Phil
** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2517
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 03:20 pm: |
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Robert Anthony Healy,philr
Substantial Holdings in OXR;PAN aust.resources;Iberian;GeoDynamic;Black Range BLR;DML and your DYL.
This is scan of 3 pages googled out.
Top20 Listed if not5%> in these but I'm sure I saw him in ARU too but,phil this google takes No Account of Any'n'All "Outter of d'Top 20 holdings"he could also be Running.
Agree our Mr Healy is a Mover?
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2518
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, November 03, 2007 - 03:44 pm: |
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Just some notes on the other ones mentioned by pse in his initial post.
IMI-In an Uptrend before the News,doesn't seem to have Gapped on the News.Worst Point found so far IMI has a Billion+ Shares on Issue,a characteristic of shares that MAY not ever leave the Under 10cent "Swamp".
IRM discussed in main thread but has Restricted Shares recently released[Escrow]This CAN cause "problems".
PRR in Downtrend before the News.Cancer "BrekThru" caused the Run.I just don't follow Bio/Pharma type Shares.
WGP Probably Gapped intra day After a Midday Announcement but you can't see it now by chart.Has a Good only 54mil Listed Shares but the retrace to where it Started is not a Good Look.Obviously just Blew Hot Air?
WGP chart-
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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rockon
Member
Username: rockon
Post Number: 230
Registered: 08-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 09:24 am: |
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Dug..... Just an observation, but the WGP chart up above is sort of starting to show similar traits to your ELK . Although a long way behind in price action, one can see the beginning of some sort of rounding bottom forming on WGP so maybe this one is still worthy of putting on a high prob. watchlist.
Also, you described this one as "just blowing hot air". Was that not the gist of PSEs' original post.....To trade that hot air.....I know that news announcements are widely "Pre-Known" but not by the punters who push these things up in this case around 200% and to grab even one third of that in one day is a pretty good trading day,eh.
As neanderthal as my approach is compared to PSEs', I know that quick, significant money can be made in this fashion and I'm not sure if by trying to build a strategy/system/approach around this that it's working in the opposite way and trying to make a sows' ear out of a silk purse...... Good luck with your theories/system/strategy/approach..
P.S This is an observation rather than a criticism as I've said more than once that there is more than one way to attack the markets, so what dont work for one, may work for another.....Cheers.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2521
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 09:57 am: |
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rockon,
WGP's Fall Back after such an on Volume Rise "indicates" that any near future Rise especially only on News will get "crushed" by Getting Out Stale Holders who Paid those Top Prices and Held.
Most people do NOT actually have Stop Losses,I reckon or if they do?They don't hit the button to activate them,Price slips further,they dither,it falls further they Hope for Getting their Money back Break Even.
Selling Pressure,rockon exceeds Buying Desire so share don't Momentum as much anymore.
That's why I'm a Blue Sky flyer rather than nursing some fallen angel.
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2522
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, November 04, 2007 - 11:19 am: |
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Further-Contrast it to ELK that has risen,retraced and now solidly[over days]returned to where it hit previously on the News day.Buyers then are now reassured,not in some panic to at least Break Even therefore ELK Could have a chance to put on a solid,percent gain in the coming weeks.
rockon,I'm working up a Method that "requires" at least some FA.FA draws support,Buying to shares.FA makes Trends endure because emerging FA credibility brings a majority of those interested in The Market to your share pick over Time.
PSE has explained,as have you that News Days are a time for Day Trading that requires certain specific skills very different to the usual mindset of the general pilgrim to Mammon.
I'm more working on Big Rises being a good indicator for possible future Go's.Even After a share does 200% in a Day,such a share is more "worthy" of watching or checking out throughly than wandering,poking around Blue Chips.
The Maxim is,rockon.
Long Term Holds are Short Term "Ploys" that don't hit Stop Loss traillings.
One hits aspects of what in your head is Adequate Return.If you're In d'Market only to make a Living.It's your source of Earnings,pretty much your only one?well,you're in another League than me,not better or worse,just different and probably my method and musings are irrelevant.
I'm on Stimulation,Figuring,Calculation of Ways'n'Means to counter all the mis/half Truths that come down as Authoritive.
Systems for Big Money aren't necessarily right for Small Timers or even ANY Individual.They[such systems]can actually Negate your small time Advantages leaving one with No Chance.
..... don't get me raving,rockon but DO keep posting any and all faults or Facts even just d'what ya reckons.
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2529
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 05, 2007 - 10:17 am: |
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A "problem" with trying to "follow" Robert Healy is he does really useless Substantial Holder Notices.There is no setting out of Numbers bought at what price in his "Take-Up".Also one can easily suspect that he's increased his holdings by 1%+ but is not doing the Legal,Required Thing of 3 days to report ie Assume our Bob is going beyond the Line drawn by ASIC.
After all what are the Penalities?Are there ever Prosecutions for Failure to Report Substantial Holding Changes? I very much doubt it.
Contrast Healy's Sub Note with Dave Gelbaum's in DYE.Not Dave's most recent one,the ones when he Bought on Market.You'll see the daily purchases at EACH price in Gelbaum's.One can actually calculate the Sub Holders Cost of Entry and this is at least something to measure your own against.
Whereas Bob Healy's are that play close to d'chest,secret,his private business etc blah.
Interesting,hey?
cheers.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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pse
Member
Username: pse
Post Number: 17
Registered: 10-2007Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 05, 2007 - 11:00 am: |
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hi dug
elliss at investor centre uses and teaches a strategy based on trading with the smart/big money.
refer page 7 this link
http://investorcentre.com.au/Files/InvestorCentreNews.pdf
it may be of interest if nothing else
-pse
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2531
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, November 05, 2007 - 11:22 am: |
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interesting pse but what's the meaning of the IC Investor bit in the ad? flogging a Market Depth Programme,hey?
there's a discussion going on in Systems and in Traders' Groups re MD,pse.you're welcome to contribute but just a tip for ya pse as ya new
one doesn't encage in chat in the weekly comp thread.it's just not done
the etiquette,pse is more to Open a Thread on a particular share you're interested in,post a chart,do ya what ya reckons and see if anyone wants to talk 2ya.
that don't happen enough here,pse.we're down to posters who ONLY post in the Weekly Comp and that's IT.
anyhow,you first pse.give it a Go.
"I hear WHAT you say,
BUT I SEE what you DO"
Zelman Cowan 1970 Canetoad!
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 725
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 14, 2007 - 05:07 pm: |
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It is more of a question of how many pennys one needs to have to hold long term in order to ensure your will have a PDN from 10c. The one thing I am certain of is that PDN @ 10c will look on the chart no different to something that has a spurt of momentum then fails. It is really a matter of buying as many 'lottery tickets' as possible.
One thing for sure, you need to trade companies that have potential for asymmetric gains. ie trade exploration rather than insurance.
It is always possible to just be lucky. The focus needs to be on making your own luck.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 2588
Registered: 07-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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