THRILL SEEKING on Intra-Day Charts
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     captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2849
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 21, 2007 - 06:26 pm: |  
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Is this really sailing?
I don't think so!
Is it an extreme sport?
Yes! I think it is!
Why is it so popular these days!
Maybe there is a Recession in the Winds?
Crikey!
They only last ~9 months at worst and only effect a few classes of sail
Why Panic?
Why do only 1%-2% survive the early years of a 3 year Sea-cadetship in Intra-day ocean-racing
Is it just Plain Rotten Luck or Greed?
Why are so many Novice Sea-Cadets committed nowadays to sailing around in circles in this extreme sport of Leveraged Instruments
Surely they cannot all be that bored?
Which sport in your opinion is the most leveraged and by definition the most dangerous for this Captain to avoid?
Like the plague!
"Safety at Sea is Paramount!"
Salute and Gods' speed
PS My bet is that it's on the Thrill of the Leverage and nothing more
(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 21, 2007)
(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 21, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 740
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, November 22, 2007 - 08:43 am: |
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Captain,
There are times when daytrading can be quite profitable. The increase in global volatility over the past 5-6 months has made this type of trading more attractive as intraday ranges are large enough for profit. If one could forcast (accurately) future volatility, which I don't believe we can do, it would be very helpful. The best estimate of todays volatility would be the volatility of yesterday. Something that the VIX could help with. Though it is NY based. Maybe someone should construct an Australian VIX. But our options market is probably not broad and/or liquid enough for the task.
Day traders die when volatility dries up. The start of the 2003 bull market has been associated with low volatility and daytrading faded, as a result . How long the current volatility will last is difficult to understand. But when the cycle changes, as it always does, daytraders will have to reevaluate their style or perish.
It is indeed difficult to put aside techniques that have made money in the past, as the traders belief systems are made up from the very experience they need to put aside. They have a tendency to realise they need to change only after much damage is done to there accounts.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2853
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, November 23, 2007 - 05:27 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Lafee
I think you may be looking at the VIX as some sort of VOLATILITY Index
(NB: It has been BEST TO MIS-NAME AN INDEX)
Which I don't read
It reads to me more like the measurement of Panic Sellers and Gutless Landlubbers jumping ship in fear of losing their Greedy Long term gains
As those Gutless wonders push this Index to its highs it shows me that they are capitulating and their shares move from the Weak and greedy Landlubber to the stronger holders Who Respect the Seas for all her Moods and Tantrums
IE The VIX moves in the opposite direction
When she makes new highs the Market makes new lows
This is only a thumbnail observation and needs a lot more tunnel testing IMO
Salute and Gods' speed
PS AND
Then there are many other questions to ponder
What Relative strength/influence/weighting do you attribube to an Index or two or three???
(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 23, 2007)
(Message edited by captain_chaza on November 23, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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