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     sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 363
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, July 01, 2008 - 08:19 pm: |  
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Let's go Dug and Hilarius.
Let's discuss this http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/1618760.html
Cheers
Sway
(Message edited by sway on July 01, 2008)
(Message edited by sway on July 01, 2008)
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3284
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 09:41 am: |
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It'd be better sway if the post was cut'n'pasted rather than linked.Clearer for Referencing.
I'm a luddite,no computer skills etc so I can't volunteer.
I think this has interesting points about overall Declining Market and thinking about Longing in such circumstances.
You say you're our resident Weinstein devotee,sway.You open,ok?
BTW that fender and your tag,sway is that the Song?Hope you're more Dean Martin than that Michael Buble twit!
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 366
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 10:15 am: |
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Dug
The Fender is American Standard Telecaster. Strats and I go back a while in our guitar chat.
No Bubbles or drunk Deano for me. "Sway" comes from this fine album by the clean living boys from London.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_Fingers
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 367
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 11:29 am: |
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Hilarius' original post below:
WEINSTEIN SURVEY
(1) On Page 75 of his book Weinstein asks "What's the trend of the market? If it's negative, you'll want to do very little if any buying, even if you see some stocks breaking out. Your probabilities of success are quite low when the market trend is going against you."
Do you agree with this statement ? What time frame do you look at in deciding whether the market is rising or falling ? If you disagree what is your evidence ?
(2) On the same page Weinstein says "Which few groups look the very best technically" [He ought also to have asked which look worst, in a falling market?]
He goes on to say "The importance of this question can't be over-emphasised since my studies show that two equally bullish charts will perform far differently if one is from a bullish sector while the other breakout is in a bearish group. The favourable chart in the bullish group will often quickly advance 50 to 75 per cent while the equally bullish chart in a bearish group may struggle to a 5 to 10 per cent gain."
Do you agree with this statement ? If you disagree what is your evidence ?
(3) In measuring whether the market or a sector is rising or falling Weinstein says he counts the number of stocks in each Weinstein Stage. On Page 77 of his book he shows a chart where the number of Stage 1 and 2 stocks is rising while the market index was falling. This is shown as preceding a dramatic upturn in the index.
Do you agree with this methodology? If so how do you operate it? If not do you have another way of determining the real market or sector trend ?
Do you agree that underlying signals may give an early indication of an impending market, sector or stock change of direction ?
(4) What is your definition of the best or worst stocks in a given sector ?
(5) Do you confine yourself to the best sectors in a rising market and the worst sectors in a falling market ?
(6) What is your current reading of the market trend and the 2 best and/or the 2 worst sectors ? Charts of best or worst sectors or stocks earn brownie points
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3286
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 12:04 pm: |
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Thanks sway,it sure wants to cover a wide number of points.Very inappropriate for multiple posting Daily Bread thread.
Anyway,like I say the only Weinstein I've read is in the postings here on IC as "summaries" so
Is it WHOLE Market orientated or just ASX 200/300 orientated?Is it chiefly concerned with High Volume/Turnover Billion $ Market Cap shares?
This would greatly ease the Sector Division aspects BUT would leave one out of BigEarners Percent Gain wise.
Of course,sway can I assume you are au fait with the IC Doctrine that the current,published Standard&Poors Indexes are Irrelevant?That they are really of No Use in Sector Analysis?
gotta go,
Happy Trading.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 368
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 02, 2008 - 01:06 pm: |
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Dug
I really want to put down my ideas but am busy with something else at present. I might get back to you later today or tonight.
Hilarius are you there?
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3317
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 01:38 pm: |
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sway,
you ever going to have time to contribute to this thread or are you too busy dreaming up filters for multi posters like paddy?
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 397
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 02:09 pm: |
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How about this Dug: On the weekend I will be wrapping up my thread here http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/1405685.html which is based on my understanding of Weinstein stages. That will be a real world test.
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 398
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 02:11 pm: |
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I just skimmed through Hilarius' original post again. I'm not sure I will cover everything he mentions, but will give it a go. Where is Hilarius anyway? Vanished?
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3318
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 02:55 pm: |
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I'll read it there but it will probably lose relevance talking about a Major Index while trying to relate it to particular shares.
Micro is my bag,sway.I don't go in for BigPicture prophesising on a Daily basis of the Dow/FTSE/ASX with bleeding Shanghai etc added in for "colour".It's all too BORING!!
what's more I reckon it's indulged in by a lot of Academically Inclined WannaBees/Should be paid for Opinion type Sheilas.
A lot of bluster that don't really help a Pilgrim to Mammon to get a Score!!
I think that the Knowledge of MECHANICS in the Share Market is much more profitable but that requires Research,Need to keep UpDating,acceptance of Learning as a constant ongoing activity but,well,that seems "too hard",smacks of d'Dastardly FA and d'KISS kids would rather Simple meant Easy,even though Easy is Stupid!!
Anyway,answer me this,sway-
Do you think Weinstein as High Analysis is only really Valid for Big Boy/Blue Chips?
I think that below Mid Caps are a very different world,requiring at times a completely Contra Analysis than applies to Blueys.However,very little of this contra analysis can be read and researched because all the Uni Graduates are concentrated on d'BigEnd Theories that can be quite irrelevant to Pennies etc.
For example-If a Company majorly changes it's structure or what it actually DOES,why should the 30wk MA have any relevance of Importance?
Why check it's Chart making some reading from a No Longer Happening indicator like 30wma?
Time was the IC programme only showed the Indicator when the 30weeks were up,now it whacks it in even 3weeks/DAYS after Float!!
Anyway,we all got things to Nic Nic about,sway.Stop picking on Paddy,OK?
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 401
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 03:24 pm: |
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Dug
I'm not doing a Weinstein on the DJIA index, just on each of the individual 30 stocks that make it up. THEN I add them all up and see what it might do to the DJIA. That was my theory back in January anyway. As you know, Weinstein works on the ratio of a stock's price movement compared with the movement of the underlying index. In IC, we call it Price Ratio.
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 402
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 03:48 pm: |
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dug wrote on Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 02:55 pm:Anyway,answer me this,sway-
Do you think Weinstein as High Analysis is only really Valid for Big Boy/Blue Chips?
Dug
The examples in Weinstein's book cover companies of all sizes, so I can't see why some of the signals couldn't be applied to small caps. As long as there is regular trading volume. I wouldn't use it on some of these stocks which only have say 10 trades in a day, then go for a few days with none at all.
A good example of a possible future WS setup is the dreaded BOL.
When the ratio bursts above that downtrend line, and the SP jumps above the 30w WMA, AND trading volume gets going ....... THEN we might hear from Peterloh again.
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dug
Member
Username: dug
Post Number: 3320
Registered: 07-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 04:06 pm: |
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peter loh has gone back to his roots on retirement and taken up his "real" name loh mook.See SDL thread,mook posts.Who else can it be than our Pete?Charting/Theory all the same.
I didn't have a problem with him changing "names".At least he was able to get over that silly 10 line Disclaimer jive.
I think Hilarius has done the Southern Flounce with d'Others where if one don't get enough respect nay Admiration,even Hozannering you do a Bunk.
Take ya Act home so there!! sorta palaver.
of course,they coulda gone broke thru Gearing or been with Opes as their "excuse",too hey?
It's a pity,sway you started that thread based on the Bleeding DOW.Top 50,say ASX may have been more Get Paid to Learn kinda experience.
cheers.
Even 'til Jaded.
Dig for the sake of it.
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 403
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 04:22 pm: |
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dug wrote on Wednesday, July 30, 2008 - 04:06 pm:It's a pity,sway you started that thread based on the Bleeding DOW.Top 50,say ASX may have been more Get Paid to Learn kinda experience.
Yeah someone else asked that but the method of calculating the DOW is simple and the Aussie indices aren't. That and the fact there are only 30 stocks to look at. Try doing it with 50 , 100, 200 (ie XJO) and you never get there.
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dutchdanish
Member
Username: dutchdanish
Post Number: 32
Registered: 10-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 24, 2008 - 06:04 am: |
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Greetings once again IC. I hope everyone is staying afloat in these choppy markets (hopefully on the short side). Felt like I would rebirth this thread with an observation on Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets.
Weinstein drops nuggets of wisdom on you in sometimes subtle ways in his book. One tip I have found very useful is on the subject of pullbacks after breakouts. The smaller the pullback the larger the next move up will be.
Another nugget I have found thanks to Stanley is the longer a base forms the larger the breakout and subsequent move afterwards will be.
Finally, on the subject of trends. The steeper the trend the less important a break of the trend line is in terms of reversal. Many times a break of a steep trend line simply leads to a less steep trend. The closer the trend is to being sideways (ranging) the more important a break is.
Just a few notes from his book. Any other nuggets that you would like to share? Peace and Success,
-Dutch
"...yet with how many things are we upon the brink of becoming acquainted, if cowardice or carelessness did not restrain our inquiries."
--M. Shelley
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sway
Member
Username: sway
Post Number: 446
Registered: 12-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 28, 2008 - 11:35 am: |
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Gday Dutch
Yes, very testing times, but I believe you have to have to stick to something. BOL has been going sideways for 8mths now, so maybe it fits the bill? Still waiting for some volume though. Good luck.
Cheers
Sway
This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.
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dutchdanish
Member
Username: dutchdanish
Post Number: 33
Registered: 10-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 31, 2008 - 01:37 am: |
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Testing times indeed, this has been a quarter of playing double inverse ETF's for me and my group of traders. I assume BOL is listed on the ASX. I've been looking for the thread about scanning for stocks that have just broke out into a stage 2...but have been unable to find the thread. Any suggestions?
I figure you will be looking for above average volume, maybe 5 day VMA > 50 day VMA, as well as a 5 day price MA crossing over maybe the 20 day MA.
I would be more of a conservative player according to Weinstein in the sense that I look for a pullback to enter after the breakout. This just allows me to have better risk/reward. If you can think of anything else I could add to the scan I would be very appreciative. A RELIABLE momentum indicator may be able to be thrown in there as well. Peace and Success,
-Dutch
"...yet with how many things are we upon the brink of becoming acquainted, if cowardice or carelessness did not restrain our inquiries."
--M. Shelley
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mook
Member
Username: mook
Post Number: 48
Registered: 05-2008Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, November 05, 2008 - 03:08 am: |
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Is this for real? BOL's first quarter performing on upper range of forecast or better still above the top range.Chart also shows accumulation since july.Previous disappointments likely to have many resistance level, but for the time being seems to be doing its job steadily.For many who hold BOL will have to cross their fingers because of past experience. Hopefully for holders sake, this time it is not wishful thinking.Quietly picking a few of these when it broke its initial resistance at 80c and because of its past rogue's behaviour, one has to be extra cautious with this one.For those that dares to tread where even the fools stay away, this is not one for the risk adverse. As usual consult your own professional before you act for your own particular position, BOL is not for everyone.
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