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     rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1550
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 10, 2005 - 05:53 pm: | 
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Mr Gibson
In response to unpopular demand I have opened a new thread.
Not titled "Ask Arthur" - humble apologies (terrible abuse of the English language to waste words).
For those new to the thread, the rationale was described by Mr Gibson as follows:
Alternatively, those who wish to seek my council could start a new “Ask Arthur” thread on this forum and I’ll answer specific questions about a variety of stock market related questions, including trading methods and recommended stocks etc on that thread. That way no one could accuse me of being “off topic” because whatever I write will be “on topic” because the topic of the thread will be asking for my advice. But be warned: my method of investing and trading is more of a “Rene Rivkin” way of working and not the boring “trading after the event” method used by most TAs and most of the people who seem to contribute to this forum.
(Message edited by rederob on October 10, 2005)
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 116
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 10, 2005 - 06:35 pm: |
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Thank you Rederob.
As this is my thread and I can write whatever I want, I’m going to start by giving you my latest thinking on what is going on.
Last week’s decline on the XAO was NOT caused by any sensible cause or reason. I don’t believe that the index is overvalued and I am convinced that this bull market has a long way to go. By that I mean another year or so. This may not end until 2007 or beyond.
The cause of the decline in the index was an artificial scare caused by the US Fed who were deliberately trying to talk up the long end of the US yield curve by rattling the “inflation” skeleton. They were moderately successful at this and frightened the US stocks at the same time. Australian brokers had recently been bleating on about our stocks being overvalued (which was crap) and therefore the XAO caught a cold when the US sneezed. But it is now obvious that the US does not have bird flu, and their jobs data on Friday was fantastic.
If you go to:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=axNRCm8OEt1c&refer=australia
you will see that those brokers (led by UBS who have all the wealthy Australian clients) who two weeks ago tried to scare everyone that stocks were too expensive, are now telling their clients to buy everything on the table, because stocks are too cheap! This despite the fact that our correction has been quite small, even if it was rather quick.
So I conclude that both the US scare and the Australian “correction” have no real basis and the whole thing was an artificially engineered “correction” in Australia to enable wealthy UBS clients to make a few extra % on their investments. Our stocks are well supported by earnings and this cannot possibly be the top or anywhere near it. We are in the middle of the biggest bull campaign since 1987 and P/Es will have to get to absurd highs and the breadth of the advance considerably narrowed before you will be able to sense that the top is near. That is a long way off yet.
The US scare related primarily to long bond yields, not to stocks, although stocks were hit. In my opinion our scare was a UBS generated scare that took advantage of the US worry. Two weeks ago UBS notified their wealthy clients that they should stop buying (I got the note from them in my email). Now we know why.
So I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that we have either seen the bottom to this, or else we are very close to it. I’m happy to buy at these levels, because I think that the upside is substantial from here and the possible downside low. As UBS are telling all their wealthy clients to BUY, I find it hard to believe that we can lose much more.
That’s my thinking at the moment, but I have a great deal of personal assets at stake in all this and I adjust my thinking by the minute, as new data flows in. But for now, I think that the US will have a mild rally tonight and that we will form a bottom about these levels and then move upwards more quickly than you think. Or to put it another way, if you use a dartboard to buy stocks over the next few days, you will have a healthy profit in six weeks time and possibly within six days.
If you don’t want to use a dartboard, buy CBA and SGB first thing tomorrow morning and watch them fly.
Arthur Gibson
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 44
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 10, 2005 - 06:37 pm: |
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this is a great idea red rob
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ragchewer
Member
Username: ragchewer
Post Number: 14
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 10, 2005 - 07:06 pm: |
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i just set this thread up to be emailed directly to my inbox as i also have "xao-how much further" directly emailed to my inbox,,
keep up the good work guys,
Rags
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julles
Member
Username: julles
Post Number: 1537
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 10, 2005 - 11:29 pm: |
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I find your posts refreshing King Arthur, certainly candid!
It is always good to see another persons view and or trading diary.
Is it Arthur of the round table Lord / Master .. or
Arthur of the round table Courage / Avalon?
I've enjoyed your perspective and will continue to read your postings, good fortune to you and yours.
Julles
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userxx
Member
Username: userxx
Post Number: 17
Registered: 02-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 12:28 am: |
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good idea rederob, the other thread was becoming a bit of a soap opera, so rather than be left out, I had to join this thread so as not to lose the plot. Glad you dont take the insults and some of the derogatory comments personally, arthur. at least you are game enough to put your comments up front, which is to be admired. CBA may rally tomorrow, but I think it has displayed too much weakness in the last few days for it to be a lasting rally, still more downside I suspect.
cheers
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chriswillz
Member
Username: chriswillz
Post Number: 71
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 03:42 am: |
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AG,
I still feel that without further short-term correction, we lead the risk of having an even larger correction shortly thereafter. We keep ignoring how bullish this year has been. With Energy/materials & health all up over 35-45% this year alone.
I'm seeing fib retracement 38.20% @ 4299 with 50.00% @ 4181.
Cheers
P.S. US energy sector looking very week in todays trading. Down 2 1/2-3%. Does anyone favour trading XEJ over XJO? It seems to only gap up/down, with minimal intraday moves, unlike xjo.
(Message edited by chriswillz on October 11, 2005)
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peterloh
Member
Username: peterloh
Post Number: 1416
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 09:02 am: |
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Mr Gibson,
I cannot reconcile you. In your above post you sound reasonable and rational and we can accept that. At other times you come across panicky to the minute through monitor watching. You dropped a few names like Shane Oliver, Mclaren and Rene Revkin.Who do you really follow or are you still in formation stage. You remind me of a wealthy friend who indulge himself in the share market now and then and only on bank shares. Whenever the bank shares went the other way he would buy more to average out. He talks big and of how successful he is.He selfdom losses because bank shares recover in the long term. He doesn't buy any other shares because if it did not work out he still has the yield.His brother who is also very wealthy works along the same principle. They look at chart for the purpose of knowing that they are buying the bank shares at a low price.You sound so similar to them except that you drop a few names (above)as the people you know and follow.My friends are very nice people and I hope you are too.
Another friend who is an accountant also only buy bank shares because of the yield. He also sells them when he makes a bit of money. From my point of view they have very little knowledge on the principle of investment and have little or no technical analysis skill.
Mr Gibson, I do not invest or trade without any knowledge of a company. Having said that I wouldn't trade any shares without looking at the chart.
You are most well come in the forum but frustrated that you made too many BOLD Predictions without any justification.
-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.
The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1034
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 09:43 am: |
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Peterloh
good post
you read gibbo the same way i do
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eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 144
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 10:19 am: |
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Oh this thread is going to be fun!
Eugenio
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 119
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 10:24 am: |
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Thanks for your comments.
I can't answer now because I'm researching the overseas market action right now and that can take me an hour or two. I don't like the look of the fall in the US though and I temporarily withdraw my BUY call on CBA and SGB until I have got my head round what is happening in the US. If the US is going to continue heading on down, it means that we are a way from our bottom.
I "change my mind" often because I am a very short term trader. Not only do I usually buy and sell stocks within the same day, but sometimes I'll do it twice on the same stock in the same day. I'm like a racing driver who reacts to the changing road (read market) conditions in the blink of an eye and reacts accordingly. I don't get entrenched in a position and then start defending it against all commers. That's how the market treats me, so that's how I treat it. I don't just trade banks, but I do ONLY trade blue chips because that's the only way I can get the liquidity for my positions. Liquidity is my biggest enemy, not market direction. Every time I sell something like SGB I knock about five cents off the price, which is very annoying. Even if you have very little money, I still think that people should ONLY trade blue chips.
People must be very careful following my calls. Commsec let me trade almost for free, so I can nip in and out of a stock for a few cents. This may not be cost effective for people who are paying large brokerage charges.
But like I say, I'm still trying to figure out if this is a sucker's rally or not and I don't have time to write more at the moment, sorry.
Arthur Gibson
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1035
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 10:33 am: |
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Well get back to work researching those O/S markets and report back soon-I want to see at least 5 more changes of
mind before the market opens-hahah
We are relying on you for our livelyhood
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vermante
Member
Username: vermante
Post Number: 460
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 11:01 am: |
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I am with Peterloh and Arthur , professionals never put themselves under unnecessary pressure .
Gibbo however is probably a great bloke
Cheers
vermante
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 120
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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