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     arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 137
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 11:21 am: | 
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That opening fall was bigger than I expected. I expected it would take all day to get to 4,400. The fact that we did it in seven minutes, looks very bearish to me.
Arthur Gibson
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 138
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 11:34 am: |
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What we are seeing here is the banks supporting the index. If and when people lose their nerve that the banks will stop any further fall, a hard move down will follow, because the safety net will have been withdrawn.
I doubt that the banks will be able to hold the line, so to speak.
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Arthur Gibson
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 381
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 11:35 am: |
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Archer, agree entirely. I didn't say the US caused it, the cause was local overheating and an inevitable correction. However the resulting indecision like we see now creates an environment where the news from the US casts a big shadow. When our market was humming the US impact was marginal at best.
Tony_M
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morton
Member
Username: morton
Post Number: 41
Registered: 05-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 11:49 am: |
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40% of investors on Aussie market are from US.
Essentially we are linked to the US market by US shareholders.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1062
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 12:04 pm: |
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Hi tony
Yes when our market is correcting any U.S problems will
enhance falls here but to blame falls here on falls the previous night on U.S markets is ridiculous
This is looking eerily similar to the march sellof isnt it
Surely they would not be that obvious{;->
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 47
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 02:06 pm: |
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auther/in reply for your request/just come in havent looked at the market its 1 pm from the dow last nite looks to be continue down/if yesterdays resistance point doesnt hold i believe this will be the low before low and low will come on or around 17/10 or end of this month or no later than 3/11/ at or around 4348 or 4260/reasons can be supplyd if required/believe current point is a very very strong time resistance point but price is not strong/
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1571
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 06:32 pm: |
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not too many bubbles on the local bourse that I can see (none in my view, actually), so who is going to pick one for bursting - will it be the banks?
will it be some other sector, and why?
will it be due to US exposure to something or another?
or will it be due to an Asian meltdown?
i think too many in the markets have had it too good for too long, and are reacting now like rabbits in a spotlight - easy prey!
look closely at the stocks that are losing out in the market and you will see some patterns
be aware that some of the blue chips are copping the double whammy right now, and have not capitulated - BHP for example hit its all time high a fortnight ago, so was due to retrace, and has done so during the allords blip
when every stock in your watchlist turns red, and the best result was a decline of only 5%, get worried
in the meantime stay alert
little jonny wants more lerts
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 139
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 07:06 pm: |
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I'm still very suspicious of UBS in all this. they seem to be picking up the banks on the cheap for their clients.
UBS is THE broker in Australia, all the others are "also rans". UBS have all the rich clients. The rest make do with retail trade. The UBS word to their clients is "Buy the banks quick".
I also think that the next sector to boom will be the banks. I think that CBA and NAB are especially cheap right now.
I'm having a bad day today, so no predictions from me. Like Rene Rivkin I'm bipolar and today is a down day for me. When I get my head into gear I'll tell you what I think will happen.
If any of you lot get depression, write to me and I'll do all that I can to help you, because its the pits.
Arthur Gibson
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 382
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 07:47 pm: |
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I wondered about the post lunch pickup in the banks. Looked at some bank FA and FYI, the details.
...................PE......Forecast Earnings Growth
Industry Avg.....16.64
ADB..............16.67............+11.17%
ANZ..............15.33............+19.87%
CBA..............12.34............-02.97%
NAB..............16.22............-01.40%
SGB..............17.89............+27.58%
WBC..............15.45...........+19.11%
They all look pretty much fully valued but ADB ANZ NAB & SGB have some earnings based growth left but CBA and NAB will probably struggle unless they lift their earnings forecasts.
In any case none should set the world on fire unless you want security and dividends. Better prospects elsewhere IMO.
Tony_M
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1573
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 08:04 pm: |
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tony
do you call "correct weight" on the weekends
your voice has a familiarity
don't go hoarse
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tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m
Post Number: 383
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 08:24 pm: |
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Rederob, I am stumped, or as Manuel would have said 'Que'?? Tony
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georgy
Member
Username: georgy
Post Number: 13
Registered: 09-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, October 13, 2005 - 10:43 am: |
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Arthur,
I think the market second leg will reach the 4250 resistant and will trade for short period around before resuming rally.
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chriswillz
Member
Username: chriswillz
Post Number: 81
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 14, 2005 - 01:05 am: |
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BHP down 5% in the UK. We are up shit creek if that happens here tomorrow.
Chris
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 48
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 14, 2005 - 10:38 am: |
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bit of mclaren /xao yesterday/low 4367 exactly 45 days/50% of 90/from lows on 29/8 to31/8 means time and price square/strong billy mc sign
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 140
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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