Archive through October 18, 2005
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     danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 51
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 17, 2005 - 08:26 pm: | 
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every one is very quite/full moon to night
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 148
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 17, 2005 - 08:33 pm: |
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Good piece by Shane Oliver:
http://www.ampcapital.com.au/K2DOCS/site_research/8B44AB0B-A79E-49AF-B239-A5CE96 D135D3/OINo29Inflation.pdf?DIRECT
My Maquarie Bank/Enron thesis will have to wait because I'm too busy to write it at the moment.
I put some money to work today and at this rate I'll be buying all week. Let's see what happens in the US tonight. Perhaps we did see the bottom last Friday after all. Even if we did not, I think that the bottom is close and I don't have the patience to wait for it; life's too short.
Incredible
Charts
now with US Data
- AMEX, NASDAQ and NYSE data
- OTC BB and Pink Sheet stocks
- more than 500 market and sector indices
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Arthur Gibson
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1595
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 17, 2005 - 10:17 pm: |
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Mr Gibson
Thank you for choosing the correct avatar.
I believe hershey's earlier chart is on the money - further declines due to the DOW reacting to higher oil, in turn spurred by yet a new hurricane threat mooted for the GOM at week's end.
I think the eye to the future should focus on the greenback as for the US to continue to hold markets its value MUST decline.
The slowness of the greenback to decline is, in my view, impairing US manufacturing competitiveness and market share continues to be lost to Asia.
Ongoing Fed rate hikes are attracting overseas money and fuelling the US debt burden to increasingly difficult levels to "manage".
Again, a weaker greenback can ameliorate debt.
More critical is US debt attributable to oil importation, which will increase again next month due to higher average prices - crude oil imports accounted for US$15.3b of the August trade deficit of $59b, while other energy related products added another $7b to the deficit.
While the DOW will always impact on the allords, it is important to start noticing how our local opening and closing values are not a faithful reflection of overnight US market activity.
While I expect a further decline in the allords over the next week or so, I also do not see any malaise pervading our local markets - so the hunt for ever greater value is getting easier.
On MBL, I think Mr Gibson is astute - it's a boy's club dedicated to lining the pockets of the boys first. Any runs on the board may be irrelevant come their second innings.
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 149
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 07:47 am: |
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OK: I DID ring the bell this morning. I DO think that last Friday was the bottom. I'll be buying strongly today, as I did yesterday, but late Friday was the correct day to have been buying. For the banks, the correct day was early last week.
My apologies for being late with the bell, but I needed confirmation that the S&P500 had turned and I am convinced that they turned last Friday; last night's action confirmed this for me.
Arthur Gibson
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 150
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 08:02 am: |
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I find that www.thestreet.com is the best site for analysis of the overnight action in the US market. Readers may also enjoy the James Cramer daily webcast which I never miss; its one of the best informed and funniest things that you will ever listen to.
Putting the James Cramer view together with what Shane Oliver is saying and I say this correction is over and will soon be heading North at high speed. James Cramer called the bottom to the S&P500 last Friday! McLaren has missed this bottom and Colin Twiggs never even tries to spot turning points of the market.
I'll go further: I say that this week and next will see some huge gains on the All Ords and today might be the first of those "surge" days. By that I mean 60+ points.
I think that the banks are cheap, very cheap. This next big move on the All Ords will last several months and will see yield evaporate. Bank yields will be the first to go. P/Es are going to become increasingly stretched. We ain't seen nothing yet!
Shane has told me that he will be reading this thread this week and may contribute his latest thinking here. I hope you do Shane, we'd be keen to know if you agree that this bottom for the correction might have come sooner than we expected. I'd also like to know which sectors you prefer right now. Infrastructure is worrying me; am I fretting about nothing?
(Message edited by arthur_gibson on October 18, 2005)
Arthur Gibson
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hershy
Member
Username: hershy
Post Number: 942
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 08:13 am: |
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Mr Gibson, Sir,
Don't know if you're a fraud or a prophet. You polarise this forum and seem to gather disciples and enemies alike. But you know your onions and you drop the right names. Your trading tactics and lack of humility rub me the wrong way and you are not one of my favourite people but you are gaining my respect and this thread makes mostly interesting reading.
Would your fear of infrastructure shares be based on the reaction of the Sydney public to the tunnel ?
The road to success is usually under construction.
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/
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chriswillz
Member
Username: chriswillz
Post Number: 84
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 09:18 am: |
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I hope you're right Arthur. Ive gone long as of 1am last night. The rally in the US overnight was very bullish. Think we will see the DOW rally up a couple of hundred pts over the next few days and then test the 10 000again shortly. 60 points would be great today. Wont happen though, still to much "negative" sentiment ---> maybe tomorrow.
Chris
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 153
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 10:06 am: |
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hershy:
No, my "fear of infrastructure" is not based on my fear of tunnels.
Try again.
PS. I hate your picture. Is that you?
(Message edited by arthur_gibson on October 18, 2005)
Arthur Gibson
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 289
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 11:10 am: |
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The rally in the US last night was a bear market rally that has stopped at the previous upward trendline on both the DOW and the SP500. The 105 ema and 200 sma have not been breached. The US markets could and probably will fall further from here, taking us with them. We may rise short term - copper and nickel both rose strongly last night - but we will probably be at best in a sideways market for a while, if not falling. Today is OK if you are a daytrader or very short term, but I don't have confidence that long term prospects are good from here, except on exceptional stocks like BTA and perhaps PDN.
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario
Post Number: 921
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 11:23 am: |
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Arthur, you've invited us all over to this thread, so, I'm accepting the invitation!
I want to listen to, understand and, hopefully, learn from your posts, but, first of all, can you kindly explain why a daytrader, such as yourself (I am one too), is so keen to identify the turning point of this current 2-week retracement on the XAO?
How will identifying the turning point on the XAO daily chart assist you as a daytrader?
No one can actually trade the XAO, so what does the XAO turning point mean to you?
Let's agree that today is the turning point of the XAO's current retracement.
What should a daytrader do today, tomorrow, the day after, etc. etc.? I'm not after specific buy sell timings just a general strategy.
I know you don't trade derivatives and, I'm pretty sure you don't open short positions, but, I'm still extremely keen to learn more daytrading strategies, and, hopefully, alternative views such as yours will open my mind to new ideas.
Regards
Dean
"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." George Soros
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1170
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 11:41 am: |
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Ken
In what way is the current dip of the green below the red different from the previous such dip?
It has so far not dipped quite as much, but the last dip did not indicate a bear market
Why does this one do so?
If you believe American conditions dominate, and are different now, do you have a chart which clarifies that view?
What assures you that we are in a bear market?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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ken
Member
Username: ken
Post Number: 290
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 12:08 pm: |
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Hilarius,
Good to see you back posting, hope you continue in good health.
I spoke of the US markets as being in a bear market - they have not had a new high for over 5 years.
I did not say that of the All Ords, but I expect our market to be affected by downward spikes in the US.
Research I receive from Elliottwave.com is tracing out a developing bear market on the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ.
Their wave 1 down finished in Oct 2002, the Dow wave 2 retracement finished in March 2005 and the S&P500 in August 2005, and we are now in the beginning of wave 3, the strongest downwards wave in this leg of the bear market. They expect this leg to go down to 8500 on the Dow, and eventually below 5000.
They are having a free week at the moment so you can register and download all their current reports if you wish.
I follow Elder's method of deciding whether we are in a bear or bull market by the slope of a suitable moving average, depending on the timeframe of one's trading.
Elder suggests 22ema, and I sometimes use this and sometimes a bit longer like 39wma. I go short when the market is a bear and long when it is in bull mode.
Currently both of these say bear market on the XAO, and I am making money on shorts.
Regards,
Ken
Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 155
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 12:39 pm: |
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deanrosario:
I'll be honest with you, I'm not day trading at the moment. My son is coming over from the UK next Monday and I have not seen him for 2.5 years and I'm trying to get the home and back yard nice for him. I don't have time to watch the intraday movements this week, so I can't day trade
But I am buying. Yesterday and today I have put money into the market for "long term holds" and later today I might buy more. This is because I think the market has turned and the quality stocks are a reasonable buy right now.
As I write this I'm down a few thousand right now, but I suspect that it's just volatility and that by Christmas my long term holds will be looking good.
When I get time I'll try to explain how I day trade, but it's so complicated the way I do it that I'm not sure if I understand it enough to explain what I'm doing. I hardly understand what I'm doing myself and I'd hate anyone to copy me.
(Message edited by arthur_gibson on October 18, 2005)
Arthur Gibson
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arthur_gibson
Member
Username: arthur_gibson
Post Number: 156
Registered: 01-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 18, 2005 - 12:46 pm: |
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