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hershy

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Post Number: 1054
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 2


Friday, December 02, 2005 - 06:47 am:

Let me start by defining what swing trading means to me.
The basic criteria is that you trade shares that are moving in your direction. Like hitch hiking if you like. You want to trade shorts ? You need shares in a downtrend. Looking to go long, uptrends of course !
You need several prior higher highs and higher lows or vice versa. You locate the latest pivot point that points in your direction. You seek out any such shares that are now undergoing a reversal from this pivot point and this reversal must signify hurt to those who hold. You need bars that keep making lower lows. You need at least 3 such days and no more that 5 according to the rule book but at times more are OK.
You enter such a trade by by buying when the trade moves one cent above the last high and you hitch a ride to at least the previous high. You can ride further but must be ready to get off as soon as a previous low is beaten.
A very promising trade is SFE.
That this share is in an uptrend cannot be argued. Regular HH and HLs dot the chart. And there are the regular dips which is what I want to trade.
The last dip fell just short of 12% and the blasted off for a magnificent 28% increase in a month. It is now in a dip yet again and the dip is almost identical in % terms to the last one - 12%.
My tactic here is a buy stop one cent above the last high so in this case @ $13.31 and I am hoping for similar performance to the last such event. If the price falls, I follow with my buy stop but no lower than $12.50.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

deanrosario

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Friday, December 02, 2005 - 09:31 am:

I, too, (almost exclusively) look for swing signals to enter a trade.

A useful website on constructing Gann swings is at

http://www.afsd.com.au/article/hottrader/soloman6a.htm

Dean

PS: There may be charting software being advertised at this website. I have never used, nor intend to use the software, nor am I endorsing, or not endorsing the software.

Subscribe for only
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"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"I spent a lot of money on booze, birds and fast cars - the rest I just squandered." Georgie Best (1946-2005)

histrionix

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Post Number: 69
Registered: 08-2005

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Saturday, December 03, 2005 - 09:08 pm:

Thanks for this thread, Hersh. I am still in the steep part of the TA learning curve and to date, have been a trendy. Its certainly cool to be a trendy but obviously much more sexy to be a swinger

!

I like to think that I try very hard to cast an appropriately critical eye over all new (to me) TA information. It is so easy to be wowed by the rearview mirror!

Looking at your chart above and your entry/exit strategy would you not have had to jump ship on 8/11 on that down candle midway up that lovely 28% incline?

Given that you are a bit of a swinger, you probably know all the chics - oops - stocks that have a predilection for swinging! But, have you looked at WBC? She's acting a little coquettish right at the moment, but if you look at her history she has had the good manners to leave a gap between each of her swings - very lady-like!

Happy days.

H

There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

jimdene

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Saturday, December 03, 2005 - 11:25 pm:

I was somewhat puzzled over Hershy's chart and thought, who am I to question a 1000 post+, until histrionix's post. I can understand not bailing out on the 8/11, but surely, (don't call me shirley), you would have been out before $14.00, or are you going short at that time

julles

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 01:45 am:

Gee Histroionix and Jimdene ... I challenge you both to put forward in this forum a stock or trade that you have made before it happens ....

Put forth your terms this is a friendly recognition of skills.

No prizes are offered and none will be given. Signed Moi' Julles

hershy

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Post Number: 1056
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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 07:33 am:

Histrionix,Jimdene et mon chere monsieur Julles
The first two gentlemen are spot on et mon ami, je vous merci pour venir à ma défense.
Chances are I would have jumped ship had I been in the trade. I have posted previously in others threads that one of the biggest problems I face with my trading is fear. Too many times to recall I have abandoned good trades when fear overcame greed. The last such example was last week when I fled MND which has since recovered and appears to be on it's merry way. So that's the reality - but was not the plan.
What I proposed above is the plan. The test of one's fortitude is the wherewithal to carry out the plan. Walk the walk and talk the talk. I obviously fail that test.
But let's not let personal weakness take away from what on paper looks like a great tactic. In any swing trade such as this, the aim is to equal a previous high and then get ready to sell at signs of weakness. See the SBM thread. Or is it the Doji thread ? A colleague advocates getting the original stake back at this stage and letting the profits run.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

histrionix

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 07:42 am:

Julles,

There wasn't even the hint of a challenge in the intention behind my post. I seek only to learn. Hershy can, undoubtedly, teach me a great deal about trading - I am very much a newbie. One way to learn is to ask. I have not yet given swing trading much thought. The 8/11 down candle would not have concerned me were I trading a trend. Given the propensity for a swinging stock to do just that - swing - how do you decide whether to bail or hold? What sort of exit rules do you put in place to safely navigate this style of trading?

I do hope that Hershy did not infer anything untoward in my contribution.

H

There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.

chart_rider

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 08:46 am:

hershy

The dip on 8/11, based upon closing prices, was 1/2%.

Would this kind of retracement trip you out - a SL that's too tight can have drastic consequences to a trading plan.

In my experience of EOD trend following, I have found stops in the region of 5% to be the optimal. What rules would you apply for the stops while swinging?

CR

hershy

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 10:18 am:

Chart Rider,
Your is an excellent question.
As I stated above, whatever rules I set myself too often I fail to stick to the plan. So really,I can only speak in theory. Many experts have written on this topic, they all make sense. I like % stop losses but on high priced stocks that can translate to mega dollars while on penny dreadfulls they can be meaningless. Personally I like count back lines but they do often get me out far too early.
What I do most often though is to look for support zones and place a contingency sell one cent below this zone. This tactic does come with it's own woes though. It has led to my being closed out on a spike pivot low as for example 99 cents on KIM on August 31.
Af for learning from me, now that's really scarey.
I just throw ideas around.
Histrionix and Jimdene, Guys, I take no offence, I don't believe any was intended. Feel free to question anything you read in this forum. I often do !
(Hello Alexxx)

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

dug

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 11:07 am:

Hershy,
Can you do a toss about being on 'with other people's money'?
I noted your comment re this in MND and it set me off thinking percentages.In MND you had $10k on say a 10% rise[yeah it was 8 but 10 is simpler]
anyway you pondered Retain Capital,cornerstone philosopy and I just wanted confirmed that a ,like A as in one of other possibilities,a method was to take your 10 grand out and leave a single grand profit 'running'.
Now I find that an "interesting" concept.You may want to explore it in another thread,Hershy? but,well H i just wanted to say I reckon it's a Way to Go but needs what i call 'pondering'.Some parameters of Method.
cheers,
jr

Dig for it.

jimdene

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 01:08 pm:

Julles. It is not a question of being smart after the event, or of forecasting. I was looking at Hershy's chart, posted I would imagine for comment, and gave my opinion, right or wrong.

adetsec

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 02:01 am:

I agree with Julles. Placing trade information after the event sets up a false impression that you know what you're doing and is somewhat misleading to newer people on the forum. We are all wise after the fact and a pre-trade statement will overcome these problems.

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

hershy

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 04:21 pm:

That would have to be the most powerful first post ever made on this forum. Adetsec, I welcome you into our midst.
If this is the beginning, I look to you for some pretty good posts.
Cheers.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 04:51 pm:

Now back to the topic:
Here is another possible swing trade. Not an earth shattering ROI potential but has the making of a good long term trade.
ABS - ABC learning centers.
We all know this to be a strong performer. Making moves into the US. I have no doubt they will do what they do there as well as they are doing it here.
The news caused a little dip in the SP, a dip that is about to correct itself. Or so I see it in the chart. The Pristine Co, an American share educator group who'se courses I have not undertaken but who send me free emails (available to anyone on request) that make great lessons have a term to describe the change in candle shadow from one side of the body to the other. Previous to the last candle, there were an awefull lot of top shadows which indicate profit takers in action. Who would blame them after such a nice gap up.These shadows were there before the pivot top and were still there after. The last candle is different, the shadow or wick, if you like, is on the bottom signifying buyers becoming more committed. This change in candle shadows is very aptly named by Pristine a "changing of the guard" and is taken as a bullish development in market sentiment.
You have before you a buy set up.
My tactic here is to enter via a buy stop on ABS trading above $7.20. This is accompanied by a stop loss set just below Friday's low @ $7.01 or for safety's sake at $6.99.
My target is the previous high of $7.55 but my go double the distance.
Risk reward ratio to first target is not that crash hot but should be a short sharp trade unless a longer term hold is planned.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

spider

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 06:56 pm:

adetsec,
I too would like to welcome you, and ask you to tell us something about yourself.
Your profile is a little thin, but I am sure that we would be interested in your comments on trading in general, and this forum in particular, as I noticed that you were first registered in Oct 2002.

You have been watching for a long time, what made you decide to post.

Again, welcome and long may you enjoy posting.

spider.

robco

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 09:07 pm:

g'day hershy,
It may be worthwhile exploreing parabolic exits?

sfe

regards

rob

hilarius

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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 03:53 am:

Adetsec

Your point is absolutely valid and I agree with it

I should also point out, though, that forum rules encourage position disclosure (eg long or short), and whether the trade is/was intended to be short or long term

So if one is commenting on a stock one holds, or if one is short, there is an obligation to disclose that fact (which is often forgotten and not always followed)

Disclosure under forum rules could give rise to the situation you have described

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

adetsec

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Sunday, December 04, 2005 - 10:48 pm:

Thanks for the welcome all and the positive feedback. I am a fulltime trader of equities, futures and CFD's and have been for at least a decade. A great deal of my time has been spent training and mentoring traders over that time. I speak around Australia when invited and sit very much on the mechanical strategy side of the business. The reason I haven't posted, even though I've been an avid forum follower, is that I am somewhat put off by the disjointedness os some of the forum participants. Sometimes it seems as though everyone's going around in a big circle and achieving very little to nothing. For interest, I am the designer of the Predator Trading Strategy (I know you probably have never heard of it) and use it in making all of my trading decisions. I will continue to keep an eye on the forum and will post again when I think I can be of some real use.
Regards

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

hershy

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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 06:40 pm:

Guess the ABS management read my post.
Trading halt till perhaps Wednesday
.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

jimdene

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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 10:10 pm:

I am still somewhat confused about julles and adetsec’s
opinion that I am being clever after the event. The chart goes to present day. I am talking about exiting around the 22nd Nov. I am a trader, not a share holder and therefore once I make a profit, I tighten my exit stop, and get out when my trading plan tells me it is time to go. Why would I wait and lose much of my profit.

jimdene

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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 10:37 pm:

"Gee Histroionix and Jimdene ... I challenge you both to put forward in this forum a stock or trade that you have made before it happens ....

Put forth your terms this is a friendly recognition of skills.

No prizes are offered and none will be given. Signed Moi' Julles"

Julles I would gladly accept your challenge if I knew what you were talking about.

adetsec

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Tuesday, December 06, 2005 - 01:09 am:

Good one Jimdene, no offence intended by me. Any chance you can place your exit strategy on the forum for us all to see? I'm sure that will clear up any confusion on this and any subsequent posts.

Comments for discussion only. Not to be construed as advice.

julles

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Tuesday, December 06, 2005 - 05:30 am:

I can understand not bailing out on the 8/11, but surely, (don't call me shirley), you would have been out before $14.00, or are you going short at that time.

It was the surely part that sparked my attention, If you could explain why you were so sure?

I figured you may like to demonstrate by posting a chart of your own and clarify your trading strategy.

Julles

ragchewer

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Tuesday, December 06, 2005 - 07:56 am:

Jim,
re taking profits,,,if your using cfd's you don't need to realise the profit to use the gain for another trade,,as we don't know where the top will be it better to let the rade run it's course and place other trades from it's profits while it's open.

adetsec,,,
hope you give something back to the forum soon i'm sure you have many bitting their nails in anticipation of your wisdom

Rags

hershy

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Tuesday, December 06, 2005 - 08:16 pm:

SFE has gone too far down to still qualify for the criteria I've set so I will leave it. I'll still be keeping an eye on it thought, out of pure interest.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Tuesday, December 06, 2005 - 09:28 pm:

hershy,
i hope your open for some swing chit chat and don't have one of those ego thingy's,,

here's the standard 3day rule not including inside days ,,
which would still have you short,maybe you would have been "alert" at the 50% and 61.8% for a reverser signal but that would be giving way to expectation.

i read somewhere over the years that a chap did a long study on Jap candle sticking and it had a less than 50% success rate.

standard 3 day rule for those interested when a stock is trending upward;
is this the lowest low in the last 3 days if yes draw swing down and then start asking is this the highest high in the last 3 days if/when yes draw swing up and refer to the first question and don't count inside days.

conservative swingers will wait for previous swing high break out to buy and previous swing low to sell.

Personally i don't throw the price move into the swing move but i know Gann did a 9 point swing move,,might be time i played with that for some extra fun,,but hey why if it aint broken why fix it,,
that trade seen here on SFE would have been a nice little earner on the long on open 26/20/05 sold open 23 Nov,,(interesting to note both Tuesdays)and still going on the short at the mo.

must go lightening all about over head,,
i'll be back

Rags

hershy

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Wednesday, December 07, 2005 - 04:51 am:

Always open to discussion. I hope I do not have one of those ego thingies. My swing trading protocol comes from a guy named Oliver Velez. i have explained above how he structures his swing trading. These are the rules for going long, shorting is the exact opposite:
1. Must be in an uptrend with regular higher highs and higher lows.
2. Following the latest high, the chart begins to reverse with distinct lower highs and lower lows, colour of bar not important.
3.After 3 but no more than 5 such days if a return to the uptrend occurs trade above the latest high is the entry signal.
4. The latest low is the stop loss level.
5. The highest high is the primary target although one can ail higher with caution.
These basic rules, and they are basic and simple to follow will offer the frequency of success that any more elaborate formulas will not be able to beat. The criteria here is to find trades that will be successful, not how successful. The gains may not be large but they will be regular.

The chart below is self explanatory. Anything above $11 does not violate the long term uptrend. The short term one however seems to be failing. The 13 week EMA has never been too important but it has been around the areas of reversal and this may still be so while the 30 week EMA has not been breached since 2002 and appears quite inviolate at this time. Fibonacci's 68.1% has failed to produce a hook so the possibility of this being a much longer correction grows.
Also you must keep in mind that the previous lower low is fast approaching at $11.40. Obviously if that is surpassed, SFE presents a completely different picture.
I like the SFE chart. I still believe it will return to the uptend. But it now becomes a different type of trade to what I initially wanted to enter. Better traders than me - and that's just about everyone, would possibly still be keen on this setup but they may be less prudent than myself. The more the present setup departs from the above rules, the higher the risk of achieving the original goal.

And a last look at SFE:

The twin pipe at the top of the chart is a very powerful bearish reversal signal when found on a weekly chart.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Wednesday, December 07, 2005 - 04:58 am:

Robce,
a late reply, sorry I missed your post so far.
An SRA stop would have got me out of MND much earlier on both daily and weekly charts. That may be the way to go.
And Ragchewer, I forgot to mention candlesticks.
I use them purely as another indicator. Indicators are a mathematical calculation of what WAS while candlesticks are a visual interpretation of what IS. I find them indispensable to my style of trading.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Thursday, December 08, 2005 - 12:33 am:

Hershy,,
many thanks for your sharring,,this is very interesting short term high frequency swing trading compared to longer term 3 day swing trading,

i searched on your Velez and have joined his free educational web site,,thank you.

i've included a daily chart here of OST ,,can you please advise me on which target you would be shooting for and would you have the stop where i have the "stop???" on the chart or would you consider the latest low to be todays or yesturdays low,

regards
Rags

hershy

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Thursday, December 08, 2005 - 05:47 am:

Hello rags,
Strictly speaking OST doe not meet the basic criteria, that is higher highs and higher lows. Before the current 4 bar down move, OSR been in a down trend within a fairly well defined channel. Which is not to say that trading a move to channel top would not be successful. It just does not belong in this category.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Thursday, December 08, 2005 - 06:03 am:

Rags,
Strictly speaking PPT also does not meet the criteria but I would still trade it.
It is in uptrend with regular HH and HLs. The down move is longer than 5 bars and it does have a higher high which it should not have. But the last 5 candles make a bullish formation and a move above $65.70 would be an entry trigger for a target of $71 TO $73.80. Thats an 8% return to the lower target. Stop loss set at $64.59.
Which reminds me, I forgot to reply to your previous question re OST stop loss. You are spot on.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Thursday, December 08, 2005 - 08:03 pm:

hi Hershy,
thanks feed back,and ok on the need to be adaptive with the theory,,

the thing that interests me the most with your system, if you will ,is the very small spread to stoploss which enables a much larger position thus making the short term target rewarding.

as most of us know what a BF set up is maybe we can give this a name also for posting in the short term asx section of the forum???

Rags

hershy

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 05:43 am:

Swing Trades ?

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 04:33 pm:

hi Hershy,
soon to be abrev'd to a ST set up,,

i've been playing around with Ezy analyser seeing if i can scan my list of cfd stocks that Macca's offer for the perfect requirement,,

i need to keep playing with it but this on TOL looks to be a good fit?

i'm not up to date on candle terminology would that last candle be a shooting star reverser or hammer reverser ???

price oscillators all screaming over bought,,volume has dropped right off too,,wonder if this swing theory considers either of these??

regards
Rags

hershy

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 08:40 pm:

Hi Rags,
You've picked a good'n.
Have a look at the previous occasions that TOL played out a similar scenario. 3 to 6 down bars then positive correction with a move that far exceeded the previous high. Same thing could happen again but wait for at least 3 bars. If the up move occurs before, it may not have the legs to reach the target.

You asked about OST earlier. The problem there was that the chart was in a downtrend. You saw the failed reversal.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 08:45 pm:

Breakin' my own rules but I think one may qualify.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 08:53 pm:

This one i already hold.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

shishir48

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 11:39 am:

I am a beginner in stock trading. I found more interest in Swing trading and started read few articles. I would like to joint free educational web or any other free resource for Swing Trading. Can any one kindly direct me the site or the resource?

Thanks

shishir48

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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 11:54 am:

I am interested in filtering / screening stocks for Swing Trading using the Incredible Stock Screening tool. Would any one kindly suggest me the setting for the screening the stocks use the Incredible Stock Screening tool or any other screening tool?

Thanks

hershy

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Monday, December 12, 2005 - 05:09 am:

Shishir,

Welcome to the forum.
Do a google on Swing Trading and trawl through the results. You may find something of interest.
One site I can recommend is

http:/www./pristine.com

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Wednesday, December 28, 2005 - 05:24 pm:

I wish to bring this chart to your attention group.
This could develop into a nice swing trade.
Then again, there a lots of bottom tails there saying that there are discerning buyers out there. It may not go lower than the latest low.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

haggis

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Wednesday, December 28, 2005 - 08:20 pm:

Two stocks that seem to have met the criteria and signalled a buy today were TIM and SGP, sorry I am a day late but they have been on my watch list and I bought both today.

hershy

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Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 08:25 pm:

Here is another for the swing trade watch list.
It is in an uptrend, it is having a dip; it could show a 5 to 6% gain once it hits trend support.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 10:48 pm:

hi Hershy,,
great to see you keeping up the posts on the swing trade style you shared with me and others,,,and your comments on TOL were very good :-)

my little homebrew filter that found TOL has not found anything like that since ,,i may have to look at brewing up another filter.

last one that found TOL was pretty simple,,
15 day ma above 60day ma,,
todays low lower than yesturdays
7 days ago close to be higher high than 8 day open
6 " " " " " " 7 " "
5 " " " " " " " 6 " "

so i'll keep that one and play with some other combinations,,,any comments please feel free.

Paul

ragchewer

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Wednesday, February 01, 2006 - 07:07 pm:

hi Hershy,,
Velez had a special discount on his dvd books so i've ordered 4 of them and also located Nison's "Japanese candle stick charting" book in a second hand book shop thats on it's way also,,

been having loads of fun with the shorter term swing trading methods you shared with me ,many thanks.Looking forward to reading Velez stuff,,they shipped it on the 9/1/06 hope they get here soon.

regards
Rags

captain_chaza

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Wednesday, February 01, 2006 - 07:28 pm:

Ahoy Good Old Mate Hershy

I have had the book
"Advanced Swing Trading"
by John Crane on my self for nearly two years
I did ask if anyone thought it was worth reading ?
To no response

With one thing and another I never seem to find the time

Have you read it?
Is it a good read?
Is it worth reading?

Would you tell me the truth?

Salute for now
capn

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

hershy

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Wednesday, February 01, 2006 - 07:57 pm:

Ahoy Cap'n,
I only tell the truth.
No. I have not read that particular book. In fact I have not read a single book on swing trading.
My knowledge of this system comes froma DVD with accompanying work book by Oliver Velez Pristine.com the Us educators.
But why do you walk around with a book on your head ?
Or is it on your shoulder ?

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Thursday, February 02, 2006 - 08:58 pm:

Forgot all about this thread till the Captain reminded me.
Actually AGL did well as a swing trade and now it looks like WES is setting up another. Need 2 more down bars, maybe to $37.50 and then go long. I'd be looking for $2 which is not that great a deal, around 5 %. However as the $37.50 zone happens to be the 3o week EMA and we are apparently undergoing a retest, this maybe the start of a Weinstein stage 2.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Friday, February 03, 2006 - 05:42 am:

Cap'n,
Just realised that what I wrote a few post above may have gone over your head.
Here is a quote from your last post in this thread:
"I have had the book
"Advanced Swing Trading"
by John Crane on my self for nearly two years

I trust my aside was not too subtle for a salt encrusted tar.}

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

hershy

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Tuesday, February 07, 2006 - 08:15 pm:

PPT has just given the signal for the next move up to at least previous high.

Hey, how good was my placement of D in the previous Perpetual post ?

(Message edited by Hershy on February 07, 2006)

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 01:39 pm:

Hershy,,
just finished watching Velez,,,swing trading,guerrila trading,,micro trading,,and core trading

book store just called my Weinstein book is in the mail ,,plenty of download going on here

Rags

ragchewer

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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 01:47 pm:

how's this look for a short set up PPX daily,

Rags

ragchewer

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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 02:02 pm:

looking for some "snap back" here on TAP

Rags

david_louisson

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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 06:26 pm:

Hi Ragchewer

My preference would be PPX, which is diving fast; while the snapback on TAP is rather against the longer term trend. However, I'm not sure how much heed one should place on longer term trends when swing trading.

Would be interested to know where you would time your entry, and place your protective stop, if that's not asking you to give too much away.

Sorry if I'm a bit slow catching on, but as a newbie I'm just starting to work my way through as many of IC's swing trading threads as I can.

Many thanks
David

hershy

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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 09:01 pm:

He Rags,
If you follow Velez, neither of your picks qualify for a swing trade, Hi basic requirement is an uptrend. Regular higher highs and higher lows. Both your picks are in a downtrend.
Have a look at the GTP chart.

This is a perfect example of a Velez swing trade. The price action is most certainly in an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Then suddenly, a reversal. Velez wants a minimum of 4 bearish down bars and he settles for no more than 6. Then he waits for the bullish reversal and enters one tick above the new lower high just created with a stop loss one tick below the low of the same bar. He then expects to hit at least the previous high but is prepared to ride it higher.
On the GTO chart, entry would be IF trade goes up to $3.78 and his target is at least $3.95.

Check out AMP and COH.

David,
What are you doing calling yourself a newbie ?
You are a legend.

The road to success is usually under construction.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ragchewer

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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 09:46 pm:

hi Hershy,
thanks for your comments,,PPX is in a down trend 20 under 40 ma's,, has just snapped back to the 20day ma and now to resume with the trend,,??,,same theory just inverted to bearish ,,short sell,,?

TAP,,same bearish inversion of theory but looking at the short bullish run back to the 20 day ma before getting conventional,

straight up bullish theory,,
OXR on a weekly chart,,higher highs higher lows,, 20 ma > 40ma + spinning top last candle ,,(an island/star ??,,still learning),,4 downs weeks looks good set up,,??,,

hi David,,judging by Hershy's reply and your # of posts ,,your pulling my leg.

Rags

david_louisson

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Saturday, February 18, 2006 - 07:14 am:

I may have done some research on-and-off over a few years, but I find that TA/trading is a process of continual learning. It's only since Dec 2005 that I've started systematically (paper) trading. To date I'm around 4% down but hopefully turning the corner (the last 2-3 weeks have been better).

David

hershy

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Sunday, March 26, 2006 - 06:20 am:

Short term swing trades have the potential to regularly deliver reasonable gains. By virtue of their properties of being in a strong uptrend but experiencing some profit taking, the success rate of these trades appear quite good. This is anecdotal only as I have not been keeping exact records of their performance. These two charts present opportunities that can deliver gains with a good risk reward ratio; more so the second one.

Conditional entry .96, stop loss @92, target $1.04
risk 4 cents, reward 7 cents.

Conditional entry $2.11 Stop loss $ 2.05 Target, at $2.33
Risk 6 cents, reward 28 cents.
This is much better.

The secret to good trading: If you do something well - do it often. If you do something badly, don't do it too much. Know the difference !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

ingot54

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Sunday, March 26, 2006 - 10:10 am:

Great stuff, Hershy.

Bring it on - have you any more examples - I'm trying to get my head around swing trading per se.

It strongly resembles "buying dips in uptrends" but I think there are more subtle differences than just that broad definition.

How is a "swing" defined? (pardon my ignorance)

I can see it is more than "just a pretty-loking hook", but what are the limits that create a swing trade?

How are swings tied in to support / resistance, for example?

I realise there may be texts to explain and perhaps web sites, and I'd be interested in looking further at those, but nothing beats a personal example from someone who knows about it.

Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

hershy

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Sunday, March 26, 2006 - 12:05 pm:

Hi Ingot,
Several exponents offer differing views on Swing Trading and I have only come across one firsthand and have had some others described to me. Basically they all share the one trait : the share must be in a strong uptrend. The definition varies from regular higher highs and higher lows to 4 closes above 5 day EMA or just above 3o week EMA and others. the one I like best because of it's simplicity has been taught to me by someone I hold in great regard, a person known to many ICnauts, none other than Snifter. He follows a guy called Lacey who proposes that the 10, 20, 30 day EMAS running parallel to each other pointing to the top right hand side corner of the screen are the best way to recognise an uptrend. Then we need some weakness which can be attributed to profit taking, going ex div, directors elling, anything. Oliver Velez defines the weakness he wants to see as "pain" . He wants to see no more than six bars producing lower lows. These bearish bars must signify pain to those who entered on the high that preceded them. Velez then wants to see a reversal bar, simply one with a lower open and a close on or near the intra day high higher than half way up the previous bar. Then he suggests an entry one or two ticks above the high of this bar with the stop loss at or just below the low of that bar. Velez targets the last high that preceded the weakness but is prepared to ride it higher should the opportunity be there.
Then there are proponents who look at weakness in only 3 bars and others look for 7. They all have their reasons and can give examples. They all state that trendlines or used EMA must not be pierced as this denoted more than just momentary weakness.
These trades are short in duration so offer small but regular gains but can lead to entries into sustained uptrends but then they are different trading style.

The secret to good trading: If you do something well - do it often. If you do something badly, don't do it too much. Know the difference !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

lafee

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Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 02:17 pm:

Hi All,

Swing trading quite simply means trying to take one swing only. You don't ride out drawdowns from profitable positions.

Two basic strategies:
1)Buy dips and short rallies in direction of higher time frame trends.

2)Trade false breaks in volatile sideways moves (ie potential tops and bottoms).

Your tools tell you how to deal with these situations.

Aim is high percentage of winners and that means you are generally risking more than you expect to make on each trade.

Cheers

Lafee.

If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?

spider

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Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 03:56 pm:

Hi warren,
nice to see you in print again.

spider.

macka

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Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 07:28 pm:

Warren

Ditto what Spider said

Regards....macka..

lafee

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Tuesday, March 28, 2006 - 11:14 pm:

Hi Spider and Macka,

Cheers guys. I am still only trading forex but looking forward to some constructive debate in all aspects of TA.

Cheers

Lafee

Ps. got bored of the yanks and poms in the forex forums!

If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?

le_rich

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Monday, May 08, 2006 - 08:46 pm:

Hope folks don't mind me resurrecting this but I'd appreciate the thoughts and comments from others involved in Swing Trading.

A problem that I find with ST is that there seem to be so many exceptions to the rule - i.e. a series of lower highs and lower lows followed by a higher low and a higher high, signaling an entry. This is then followed by further lower highs and lower lows until your stop is triggered. I am find that this is a common occurrence and am wondering how others are trying to avoid this. The alternative is that they accept it and through the use of tight stops restrict their losses and move onto the next set up.

If you look at HDR over the last couple of months we see a steady increase in price through to 24/04 followed by a retracement of 3 days before the price moves up again and a buy signal is triggered. This was then followed by a further retracement down to its current level.

My questions are: would others have entered the trade on 01/05? Are there other factors that I could have / should have taken into account?

All thoughts and comments would be appreciated...

canam

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Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 06:05 pm:

Hi Le Rich

The first chart is showing triggers of a typical form of long/short position signals. (higher h/l and lower h/l)

As you can see, if this is the only part of your system then you would just get eaten alive.

Building in things like "defining the underlining trend" will help to enhance your stock pics - for example - see v2 where only long signals are generated when the underlying trend is "up" or bullish and vice versa for short.

This is just an example and by no means a recommendation of any kind

And then comes your decision on exits.....

Cheers
Seth
:-)

Profits are the bi-product of your system - Following your system is the goal!!

mum

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Thursday, May 11, 2006 - 09:39 pm:

Hi, Have just bought the book by Dave Landry on swing trading. He has got lots of little tricks like The bow tie. he uses a10sma and 20ema and 30ema . Waits for them to spread out ,make a lower low and then buys on the next higher bar, Pullbacks, adx must be above 30. Micro patterns.Historical volatility . Haven't read the book properly yet .You can hear him talking at tradermike.net Click on subject index and scroll down to Dave Landry

mum

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Thursday, February 08, 2007 - 07:57 pm:

Found this site on swing trading. Seems to be packed with info . cheers B
http://www.swing-trade-stocks.com/

backstop

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Tuesday, July 03, 2007 - 09:01 am:

Thanks for this link, mum.

I have recently taken an interest in swing trading and found this link in the iC forum. It seems quite a good site for info, and the videos are very good, too.
My question for this forum is: Does incredible charts have an equivalent to the VIX (Volatility Index)inidicator?

Only $12 (USD) per month