Archive through February 15, 2007
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     ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1663
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 10, 2007 - 09:42 am: | 
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On another note - Oski, how do you trade the GBPUSD?
My approach is to look within the support/resistance levels and intermediate/short term trends, and try to hitch a ride.
One big kick in the rear I received last night was that while I grew the a/c by 7% for the week I lost almost 1% in closing out my last trade. The spread killed it! I decided to stop loss on AUDEUR which was wiser at the time than giving back gains.
Up 6.08% over 5 days.
I'm wary about spreads - it is something to watch closely - that's the second time I ended up in the red on a trade when I thought I would snap up a quick $400!
Ouch!
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1664
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 10, 2007 - 10:16 am: |
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Lafee
At the risk of clogging this great thread (thanks for starting it) I am finding more questions than answers.
For example, reading about the Yen being so weak (ostensibly because of the low interest rates in an otherwise strong economy) and that there is a chance that Japan may move to end the carry trade by raising rates, all makes me think a huge reversal is imminent ... or at least on the cards.
I have no historic data but I am wondering what the ESDJPY did about 9 months ago when the BOJ announced that it may move to end the carry trade.
Remembering that this came shortly after the Chinese central bank announced their 0.27% rise in interest rates, it is my view that the combined effect of these two announcements was what triggered the May 11th 2006 stock market correction, as hedgies rushed for the exits.
As I have not followed the historical movements in USDJPY I am wondering whether technically these things can be seen in the charts a few days before announcements?
Any appreciation of the JPY against USD would be seen as a signal imho, but before I would feel comfortable with that, I would like to work out just what strength the move would need in order to be valid - (as in pre-empting an end to carry trade and rapid decline of USDJPY).
Would really appreciate your comments.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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oski
Member
Username: oski
Post Number: 46
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, February 10, 2007 - 11:59 am: |
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Yen has very strong correlation with the price of oil, oil goes up Yen goes up; and the only thing you have to watch for is BOJ. Other Banks try not to be so involve in the manipulation of they currency only BOJ is the bank who openly manipulates Yen. There were few occasions were they said openly “we are coming” in advance and there was catastrophe, people made and lost fortunes.
Ingot54,
I trade GBPUSD on the news. It took me some time to find a broker that suits my trading. Guaranteed spreads, news trading, scalping ext. a lot of traders trade with US base brokers but I stick with the European broker and I am happy, couple of times they step in and save me a lot of money (I put my stop-loss incorrectly).
Mess with the best, loose like the rest.
Note: This represent my individual opinion, therefore individuals should formulate their own trading decisions or seek professional advice to minimize risk to their investment portfolios.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1665
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 02:09 pm: |
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Temporarily off topic - I apologise, but best to ask in an FX thread:
Looking for eBook "Bird Watching in Lion Country" by Dirk D. du Toit.
Has anyone heard of it or have it?
Is it worth the hype?
http://www.retire-asia.com/bwilc.shtml
While I am on "the fringe" of reality, I wonder if anyone has heard of the mechanical FX systems "Freedom Rocks" and "ForexForSmarties"?
http://www.freedomrocks.com/information
http://forexforsmarties.com/index.php
Came across these while Googling for further education on FX trading.
? Too good to be true
? Pitfalls of these kinds of systems
Seems to me they promote target setting with calculated draw down in correlated markets.
I'd like to know the bottom line here.
Everyone needs some mentoring sometime ...
(Message edited by ingot54 on February 12, 2007)
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2416
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 05:09 pm: |
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer #54
We discussed you fondly at our lunch on Saturday
We were unanimous and admire your courage and perseverance
How anyone can jump out of CFD's into the FX market was truly amazing
I commented "It was like watching someone jump out of the fry-pan and into the fire" LOL!
The biggest problem you will face Sailing the FX is that of "Sleep"
If you are serious re Sailing the FX then the first thing you should do is get a map of the globe
You will find that if you draw a vertical line from the Time zone of the Eastern States of Australia, up through Japan and then up through Siberia (Russia)
Everyone is asleep when the action happens!
I have had endless discussions about this with Officer Laffe over the years and he has always agreed but admitted he was an Insomniac and can go without sleep
My suggestion is to move to a more favourable Time Zone eg WA or another country further West
At least then you have a better chance of success
There is NOTHING worse than lack of sleep when at the helm
It is actually worse than "alcohol!"
Mistakes will surely happen!
AND
With the ridiculous margin/gearing of $500 to $5000 you will be sucked into
Any mistake will be HORRIFIC
I wonder how long Officer Laffee can go without sleep?
He is getting married soon and my tip is his wife won't have a bar of his love for the FX for very long
Good luck Officer Laffee
I would dearly love to see you both back Sailing the ASX in Daylight hours
Salute and Gods' Speed
Crikey! We all make lots of mistakes without the Lack of Sleep
God forbid the parabolic and then compounding effect mistakes /accidents on deck have on the Skipper and her Crew
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 12, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1666
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 06:17 pm: |
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Thank you for the fine honourable mention at the Captain's Table.
Yes, I am not a quitter - unfortunately! But I do persevere because I don't want to be like Homer who said, and I quote: "Trying is the first step to failure".
Please keep in mind that I am ideally placed to be successful at FX:
1) I have not succeeded at anything yet
2) I have decided CFD's are not my scene
3) I have not lost enough money yet to be like Homer
4) I have lost more money trading stocks than my 5 closest trading friends
6) I am a permanent night worker - night duty since December 2005!
The odds are surely in my favour, and fortune favours the brave! After all, at each failure, I am one step closer to success. It will be no fun after that!
I'll leave you with another of Homer's quotes: "Here's to alcohol: the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems.”
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2417
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, February 12, 2007 - 06:51 pm: |
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PS: I forget who told us the story on Saturday after Noon but evidently there is a top surgeon who takes his Lap-top into the operating theatre each night and Sails the FX
Crikey! What is this world coming to?
I hope this won't be you?
Salute and Take Care
"Winning" can be very addictive!
Howver "Losing" by definition cannot be addictive!
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 12, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 301
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 08:17 pm: |
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Ivan,
I have never been able to trade based on news of any kind. I am not one to interpret the PR ramblings of competing participants in the forex market. Or any market for that matter. I am not saying it cannot be done. Soro's has done it all his career. Thing is he wasn't listening to what the spokesman where saying rather trying to figure out what their motives where and how they were wrong.
I have no problem with anyone trading any market. I believe there are many niches to be found in all financial instruments. Your job is to find out how YOU can best exploit the niches you find. A lot of that has to do with your personal circumstance - ie how much money you have to trade, your commitments outside of trading etc.
How does one find a niche? Crunching data or spending decades viewing charts (ala the Captain) is the way. I suggest you take up my recommendation with Metatrader. Learn to program with it and find a niche that you are capable of exploiting in view of your personal commitments.
I am a contrarian in nearly everything I do in the market. To me it makes sense. Most trader loose. THat has well been establish. Just as it has been established in general business. The minority (in any game with thinking participants) take the majority of the prize. It is therefore not wise to trade published theory. Open your mind by doing away with all the rubbish that the media, trading gurus etc have tought you. DO YOUR OWN TESTING AND PROVE TO YOURSELF WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DOES NOT.
Cheers
Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 302
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 08:35 pm: |
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I have seen a transcript of an email conversation between an Oanda client and management stating that it is now company policy to widen the spreads on the GBPUSD to 20 pips during volatile news announcements.
Something to consider
Cheers Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1668
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 08:45 pm: |
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Thank you Lafee
I am only investigating if this is viable for someone with my risk profile, but I do intend to follow through on your advice to trial Metatrader.
The USDJPY is on a run for a nice short trade today. I just closed out a (demo) position making 46 pips!
Sold 121-80
Bought 121.34
My original order called for a close @ 120.66 but through watching the screen this evening I chickened and closed out and locked in a nice profit.
Would I have traded for this on my own account with REAL $$$ - no - not at this point in my evolution! I am looking for an edge that I can exploit, and that can come with time.
For now I am relaxing and enjoying the demo experience - have made 20% in 6 trading days mainly on watching tops/bottoms and working out which currency is the strong one of the moment.
But demo (paper trading) is surreal - and no stress! I could be a permanent paper trader and just hang loose!
In my latest trade I had a look at what the CHF is doing in relation to all the majors, then did the same with the USD. Then I had a look at what is "topping out" and tried to work out why (again, in relation to other majors).
The trade I decided on on 12/02/07 was the USDJPY short because the JPY was showing strength against most of its pairs. Then I estimated that there could be (conservatively) a move below 120.66 and shorted at 121.80.
As I said this is investigative stuff, and as the brain computes, the heart acts. Whether I will find a niche is still being deliberated by the jury. But I have time, and I'm enjoying the fun.
No one says I will ever become wealthy through trading - in fact 95% of my colleagues will not achieve that either, but the journey is as important as the destination.
Is there a killer instinct in me - absolutely yes - but in order to be poised for the kill, one must have control of the weapons.
Clearly so far, I have not.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 303
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 09:12 pm: |
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I believe you are correct in playing the short side on the USDJPY today. You can see the increased volatility over the past week or so. To me, a mean reversion strategy is best played in such a situation. Trading bands ( such as BOLLINGER) can be useful for entry and exit.
Be careful though in comparing the relative strength of the yen to the other majors. It is the least correlated by a large margin. Great for diversification purposes though.
Cheers
Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2427
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 10:08 pm: |
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Crikey! I knew I was doing something wrong
I was using Metatrader4
When I lost more money in my first two weeks than I had ever expected and ever planned for I through the lot overboard
ie: The computer and the programme
I figured it was not safe to sail on any further with such faulty equipment
Salute and Take Care
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1669
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 14, 2007 - 03:27 am: |
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