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     ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1722
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Friday, March 09, 2007 - 09:20 pm: |  
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Economic News
USD
After a relatively stable week regarding price movement, we are expecting the biggest news event of the week - The Nonfarm Payrolls.
Although its reputation as the biggest market shaker has declined lately, very interesting movement can be expected today, mostly because uncertainty is the name of the game here. This past week, traders saw the negative release of the ADP index, where its correlation with the NFP is ever questioned.
This time around, traders are proving that they disagree with correlation theories. Although the ADP came in very week at 57K, the market didn't show much excitement nor did it show any downward movement to the USD.
The Jobless Claims was also accepted with certain apathy after coming in at 328K. The estimates of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg range from 38k to 165k with a median of 95k and an average of 98k.
Such a wide range of forecasts indicates that even the experts don't really know what to expect.
What could be said is that a reading below 80K would be quite devastating for the USD and one above 110K would keep it on stable ground.
It is not a secret that the common notion is slightly pessimistic and as it appears on paper traders will in fact be expecting bad results.
It is also pretty clear that today's report will generate massive volatility, and probably deliver the USD's next move.
EUR
Although the ECB raised the European Rates by 0.25 to 3.75%, the move was very much expected and created little price movement in the European markets.
What did cause the market to react was the speech made by ECB President Trichet all throughout the afternoon.
Trichet calmed down his “Hawkish” notion on the economy and indicated that interest rates are currently “moderate” rather than “low” and confirmed that the word “vigilance” will not be used in his prepared statement.
The shift in tone is likely in response to the recent volatility in the global equity markets as well as their outlook for softer inflation in the next Four months.
The Bank of England kept the British interest rates unchanged at 5.25. That was also in line with expectations and no major moves were seen.
Traders will be waiting for the minutes to get the bank's monetary policy, since it does not publish it when rates remain unchanged.
No major European news is expected today, as most of today's action will come from the US market, and the NFP release.
JPY
The uncertainty around the Japanese markets create an almost impossible trading behavior for the currency that was once very monotone.
The USD/JPY is going through extremely choppy sessions, and we suddenly see 200 pips movements in a very short period of time.
Although no major news was released in the Japanese market yesterday, we saw an abnormal movement with no valid explanation as to what caused it where the marker increased from 116.00 to 117.50.
As for now the near future of the Yen is quite unclear, and until some general direction will appear, JPY trading is recommended only for the brave hearted.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair is consolidating in the 1.3150 zone. Daily signals are mixed with a slight bullish indication.
The hourlies are touching overbought territory. It could be wise to stay out of the market until a clearer direction will be known.
GBP/USD
The pair has crashed more than 250 pips in the last three days, and is now signaling a bounce back.
The pair now floats around 1.9300, and it could be wise to look for dips, and establish long positions.
USD/JPY
The daily charts are extremely bullish, as the pair started correcting massively from the 115.00 support.
The hourlies are quickly unwinding from overbought levels and indicating that longs are most probably the right way to go.
USD/CHF
Daily studies are moderately bullish, and are pointing to the 1.2350 zone. The notion is supported by bullish hourlies which indicate that the correction up still has some steam in it.
The Wild Card
AUD/USD
A very clear channel has been created on the 4 hour chart, allowing forex traders the opportunity to jump into the local uptrend until the pair reaches the upper levels of the channel.
Although the general direction of the channel is down, this is a perfect opportunity for swing traders to take 40-60 pips in a mid range trade.
Chart is the AUDUSD
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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zorba
Member
Username: zorba
Post Number: 144
Registered: 12-2003Rating: N/A
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| | Friday, March 09, 2007 - 09:34 pm: |
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Ingot
I've read several times that 'big news' is coming tonight. You've outlined the issues.
What are the expectant flow-ons for us, if any?
TIA
As the Irishman said, 'Anyone who's not confused here doesn't really understand what's going on'.
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ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1723
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Friday, March 09, 2007 - 10:15 pm: |
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Zorba - I am a "johnny-come-lately" to FX issues, and am just now going through the basics myself.
I understand that the Non Farm Payroll figures (ie the jobs growth off-farm) are a bit like our employment figures here, but for some reason it is seen as a measure of future prosperity in the USA - more so than here.
In AUS we tend to link Employment data with Inflation etc.
If the NFP is poor, I expect most currencies to appreciate against the USD.
It is never that simple - eg there are some countries with different weightings/exposure to the US economy, and this will have a much lesser/greater impact on their currencies.
This time around it is not as clear as previously, and opinion seems divided. Therefore it is hard to take a pre-emptive position.
This time I think it is a bit of a gamble.
I have a short on USDJPY (demo a/c only at this stage) and a long on the AUDUSD and EURUSD.
A lot of folks use NEWS as opportunity, but the FX markets are just a big bucket with one million sharks in it, all trying to keep wet. Someone is going to get bumped out of the pool, and it is usually a smaller played!
Beware the feint and jab! The markets can take off in a hurry, but quickly reverse, taking out all the suckers. At this stage I usually take positions over 3-4 days and employ stops to take me out (+ trailing stops) if the positions reverse while I am not screen watching.
Kind regards
Ingot
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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zorba
Member
Username: zorba
Post Number: 145
Registered: 12-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 09, 2007 - 10:25 pm: |
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G'day Ingot
Thanks for the really quick reply.
I'm not into FX but was wanting to know how it (the US news) would interplay with our share market. I trade (nearly wholly) in miners. Not advanced enough to trade in actual metal (ingots et al).
Again, thanks for your insight.
As the Irishman said, 'Anyone who's not confused here doesn't really understand what's going on'.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1726
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 12, 2007 - 06:12 pm: |
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Economic News
USD
Last week ended with a small surprise as the Nonfarm Payroll came in at 97K. Although being a relatively low number, the expectations were much lower, creating a positive rally for the USD.
The relatively strong number was supported by positive average hourly earnings which increased by a more than expected 0.4%.
The EUR/USD ended the week 150 pips lower at 1.3090. This Nonfarm Payrolls proved once again that the actual numbers are not those that matter, but the expectations are far more important in determining the final outcome of price changes.
It looks as if this time the low ADP had an important role in setting the low expectations for the following NFP, as its importance, and correlation with the NFP are commonly argued in many economic circles.
Today, there is no news expected to come from the US, as the market will be waiting for tomorrow, when the US Retail Sales is expected to come in stronger than last month's 0.0%, at 0.4%.
Later on this week the US Current Account is expect to be released and the Trade Balance is widely expected to narrow a bit, which together with a strong Retail Sales might spur further positive energy to the Greenback.
As a whole, no big surprises are expected to shake the US markets this week, and it might be a good week to range trade.
EUR
Last week was an important one for the Euro-Zone monetary policy, as it saw the hike in the European interest rate to 3.75, topped by the Bank of England's decision to keep the rates unchanged at 5.25%.
The uncertainty regarding the ECB's future policy caused most of the European currencies to depreciate across the board, and the culmination came in the form of a stronger then expected NFP in the US market, that sent the EUR and the GBP further down.
As for today the biggest news expected to come from the European market is the GBP Producer Price Index for the month of January, which is expected to come in a bit lower than last's month's 0.3%, at 0.2%.
If the PPI will come in line with expectations, no major volatility is expected, although traders will scrutinize the GBP around the publication time (9:30 GMT).
JPY
The behavior of the JPY last week persuaded many traders to jump back into the carry trades, after JPY weakness didn't seem to be stopping.
We saw big focus on the Japanese market, last week as it delivered the most consistent and stable trend, that could be a strong signal the we will continue to see the JPY going in the direction we were so used to seeing it - Down!.
Looking ahead, we are expecting second quarter GDP, current account, Domestic CGPI, consumer confidence, industrial production and leading indicators this week.
The Japanese economic calendar is busy which suggests that the market may continue to focus on the Yen.
Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair closed last week's session at 1.3090 and is now testing 1.3120. It looks as if last week's range trading will continue this week, as the dailies and hourlies are at neutral levels.
The recommended range would be 1.3060/1.3200 with strong attention on the unwinding of the hourlies as an entry and exit signals.
GBP/USD
It was a choppy session for the pair last week, with a clear bearish movement. The pair started this morning with a small increase, as the hourlies are touching overbought territories.
The daily charts are mildly bullish, indicating that buying on dips might be preferable today.
USD/JPY
The pair is testing the 118.40 levels at the end of the Asian session. The daily charts are extremely bullish with plenty of room to extend, as the hourlies are reaching overbought levels.
The ongoing direction for the pair continues to up, with a local target price of 119.50.
USD/CHF
After it soared over 200 pips last week, the pair is consolidating around 1.2340. The daily studies are very bullish, as the hourlies are approaching overbought levels.
The overall notion for the pair is up, so a preferable strategy might be buying on dips.
The Wild Card
GBP/JPY
A very stable and consistent uptrend is forming on the 1 hour charts, giving forex traders the opportunity to jump in to the trend when it still has plenty of steam in it.
The current target price is 231.00, which means that the profit potential might be more than 150 pips.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1727
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 13, 2007 - 05:00 pm: |
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I have permission from www.sonray.com.au to use this material. It is not intended for use as advice - you must do your own research and consult your own advisor prior to making investment decisions. This is intended for information and discussion purposes only.
_____________________
The USD opens a touch softer on the back of
Hawkish comments from the ECB’s Liebscher
more bad news for US Sub Prime lenders
talk of Halliburton’s relocation to Dubai
US Retail Sales, as a result the USD has been unable to capitalise on last Friday’s relatively strong Non-Farm payrolls number.
Shares of New Century Financial were suspended for trading this morning, raising concerns that the company may have no choice but to file for bankruptcy. The problem in the sub-prime lending sector is worsening and run the risk of impacting the housing market as a whole.
Mortgage lenders are expected to tighten their lending rules, regardless of whether they lend to the sub-prime market or not. With housing inventory at a 3 month high, prices could soon be affected as well.
In addition to New Century Financial, Halliburton also announced that it will be moving its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai. Their move is a no-win situation for the US economy and US dollar.
The biggest mover was sterling/yen falling three big figures and underlines the risk of being tied up in the yen carry trade, the carry trade has now become a relatively high volatile fx risk.
Growing nervousness about a possible confrontation between the United States and Iran is adding to dollar bearishness.
While investors were focused on the global risk environment in the last few weeks, a bunch of U.S. economic data due this week should remind investors that fundamentals are just as important as interest rate differentials.
Investors will be looking at U.S. retail sales and inflation data, which, if significantly outside of expectations, could coax the market back to looking at economic growth prospects.
However expectations are for weaker US retail sales tomorrow.
February was one of the coldest months on record and Wal-Mart has already missed its sales forecasts as a result.
Retail sales should set the tone for the first part of the week until Thursday when we have producer prices, net foreign purchases of US Securities and the Philadelphia Fed index on the docket.
The German ZEW survey of analyst sentiment is due for release tonight along with Eurozone industrial production.
Australian data was mixed yesterday, Home loans were weaker than expected but investment lending and the Manpower Employment survey were stronger.
Never-the-less the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars are all stronger today despite the fact that gold prices are flat and oil prices are lower.
U.S. stocks extended a week of gains, buoyed by $31.7 billion of acquisitions, falling oil prices and an analyst's prediction that demand for mobile-phone chips will grow.
The Dow industrials rose 42.30, or 0.3 percent, to 12,318.62
Copper prices rose to a two-week high in New York after demand surged in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal used in pipes and wires.
Our strategy in the Aud for yesterday was stopped out for a 20 point loss
and
our strategy to establish long AUD at .7790 missed out with a low of only .7803.
Our strategy for today is to
look to establish long AUD at .7845
stops should be placed just under .7795
50% profits should be placed at .7885
with stops raised to entry at this point
the balance of profits should be placed at .7905.
The Eur rallied from the 1.3110 level we were looking to sell on a break of.
Whilst the rally looks a little overdone our strategy for today is to:
look to establish long Eur now at 1.3163
stops should be placed just under 1.3110
50% profits should be placed at 1.3203
Stops should be raised to entry at this point
the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3230.
GBP rallied to a high of 1.9417 from yesterday’s lows at 1.9299, before succumbing to a heavy sell off on the back of GBP/JPY to a low of 1.9250.
Our strategy for today is to re-establish longs on a break above 1.9335
stops should be placed just under 1.9280
50% profits should be placed at 1.9365
and
stops raised to entry
the balance should be placed at 1.9405.Support at 117.50/55 gave way to set a low of 117.21 and stopped our strategy out for a
50 point loss.
Our strategy for today is to
short USD at 117.65/70
stops should be placedat 118.15
50% profits should be placed at 117.25
and
stops lowered to entry at this point
the remaining profits should be placed at 116.95.
We will stay with our strategy in the Gold and Silver, that is to stay our and wait for the next move. As we mentioned yesterday our medium term view is for higher Gold and Silver prices, we are just very wary of the current price action
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1728
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 13, 2007 - 07:36 pm: |
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Economic News
USD
Yesterday, the greenback weakened against most of the majors and due to the lack of data it may be reasoned that there were some technical factors and profit taking among the traders which caused this fall of the USD.
Although there is no important US data being released today, the USD has plenty of reasons to be bearish. First, shares of New Century Financial were suspended for trading this morning, raising concerns that the company may have no choice but to file for bankruptcy.
The problem in the sub-prime lending sector is worsening and run the risk of impacting the housing market as a whole. Mortgage lenders are expected to tighten their lending rules, regardless of whether they lend to the sub-prime market or not.
With housing inventory at a 3 month high, prices could soon be affected as well. In addition to New Century Financial, Halliburton also announced that it will be moving its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai.
Their move is a no-win situation for the US economy and USD. Not only will it shave hundreds of millions of dollars from tax revenue, but the economic and political consequences of their move could bring out old concerns that many traders and investors may have already forgotten about - which include the twin deficits and protectionism.
If Halliburton gets away with this and Congress fails to block them, more US companies may follow suit - which could hurt the labor market and take away even more tax revenue.
Adding to the dollar bearish sentiment in the market are expectations for weaker US retail sales tomorrow. February was one of the coldest months on record and Wal-Mart has already missed its sales forecasts as a result.
Retail sales should set the tone for the first part of the week until Thursday when we have producer prices, net foreign purchases of US Securities and the Philadelphia Fed index on the docket.
Today, US Retail Sales are expected to come in stronger than last month's 0.0%, at 0.4%.
Tomorrow the US Current Account is expect to be released and the Trade Balance is widely expected to narrow a bit, which together with a strong Retail Sales might cause the Greenback reversal trend to which justified the supposition of expected Range trading this week so it might be an opportunity for day traders to take advantage.
EUR
Yesterday, the GDP which came slightly more positive than expected didn't cause a significant movement on the board.
However, The EUR rebounded strongly thanks to hawkish comments from ECB member Liebscher and overall dollar bearish sentiment.
Liebscher reminded traders that the central bank's work is not over because he feels that inflation is still a risk. He even indicated that he would be willing to vote in favor of raising rates again at the expense of growth.
After raising interest rates to 3.75 percent last Thursday, ECB President Trichet toned down his hawkishness to signal a pause in April and potentially in May as well.
The German ZEW survey is to be out today along with Euro Zone industrial production. The ZEW survey is an Economic Sentiment which measures the institutional investor sentiment.
The monthly indicator reflects the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of investors that are pessimistic; we expect a positive figure which may establish a bullish trend but not a significant one.
The EUR is mixed ahead of the closely watched Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator, weakening mildly against USD and JPY while remaining firm against the GBP.
After, hitting a low of -28.5 last Nov, the German ZEW has been steadying improving and is expected to continue its trend and rose to 3.3 in Mar.
Continuous improvement in the index in Q1, with 2 consecutive months staying above zero will solidify the view that the impact of the VAT increase is just temporary and overall conditions remain positive.
Meanwhile, the current condition index is also expected to improve further from Feb's 70.9.
JPY
Yesterday, shortly after the European market open, the JPY skyrocketed against all of the major currency pairs as dealers report the unwinding of more carry trades.
Part of the move may have also been attributed to a delayed reaction to the stronger Japanese GDP data and Chinese trade surplus and lower exposures to currencies with high interest rates ahead of a group of US data this week today, when no data at all is expected from Japan, low liquidity and range trading are expected.
Japanese Q4 GDP revised up to 5.4%. That compares to 4.8% on the preliminary cut. The bulk of change came on the investment side, with both private and public spending somewhat stronger.
Nominal labor compensation raised 1.2%yr, 1.4% real. Real private consumption is up a lesser 0.6%yr, implying an increase in the saving rate over the year.
Unit labor costs remain in negative territory at -1.1%, with strong productivity growth primarily responsible.
It was interesting to see that while investors were focused on the global risk environment in the last few weeks, a bunch of economic data due this week should remind them that fundamentals are just as important as interest rates differentials.
Meanwhile, market remains cautious following a growing possible confrontation between the US and Iran.
Technical News
EUR/USD
Volatility is low and strong resistance at 1.3200 and support at 1.3090 forms a tight range for trading, yesterday this pair rose to 1.3201 and reversed backwards to its current price level of 1.3166.
On the 4 hour chart we can see a slight bearish reversal forming on the slow stochastic which crosses above 80 and turning downwards.
GBP/USD
The GBP has reached the key support level at 1.9280 and is still losing ground trying push downwards to a new 3 months low against the USD.
USD/JPY
A secondly bearish trend is gaining strength trying to breach through next resistance level at 116.56 4 hours chart which supports the bearish behavior.
USD/CHF
Strong support and resistance offers little room for a break of the price below 1.2200 and 1.2350, all indicators are neutral and offer no definite direction, however a break below 1.2200 will drive this pair to a new low.
The Wild Card
GBP/JPY
Forex traders take a look at this volatile pair as a solid triple bottom has been formed and an upward correction is on it's way, despite the fact the spread is high on this pair the current correction may generate 200-300 pips at least.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1730
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 15, 2007 - 07:53 pm: |
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Economic News
USD
The current account deficit is the broadest measure of the nation's economic balance sheet with the rest of the world. It encompasses both trade and capital flows. It essentially measures the nation's debt with the rest of the world, which must be financed by loans from abroad or asset sales to foreigners.
Yesterday The US current account deficit was released extremely low in the fourth quarter to its lowest quarterly level in more than a year, while the annual gap hit a record for the fifth consecutive year.
Moreover, import prices rose 0.2%, which was below the market expectation of 0.8% growth and the core number fell 0.1%.
This drop in import prices is a result of the softening in light sweet crude oil prices which has reduced import prices and narrowed the deficit. Also the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded below the 12,000 level, causing some panic in the USD trading session.
Today's figure will play into tomorrow's TIC data release in the morning.
Although producer prices will be considered in tandem, the TIC will likely supports today's findings, or counter them, turning the market dollar bearish.
Comparatively, producer prices will help to ensure that the Federal Reserve will keep at the current stance of no-decision in the immediate future.
EUR
Yesterday, in the early morning, Euro Zone industrial production fell by 0.2 percent on the month over month measure.
The decline subsequently brought the annualized figure lower, suggesting that production may be softer in the near term due to thinner global demand. However, one cannot preclude the possibility of a near term pullback in productivity as the report vaulted a whopping 1 percent last month.
Trichet has turned his attention to labor costs saying that the ECB will be monitoring these more closely. In making this comment he highlighted the concentration on money supply data as an indicator of expectations in the economy.
This may well become the watch word when assessing future ECB rate hike decisions although one more is more-or-less in the cards.
Looking ahead, Core CPI is scheduled for release with markets expecting a figure of 1.8% slightly higher than the previous 1.7%.
The decline will not sit easily in Europe and is a little surprising considering the mostly positive numbers seen in the first two months although these have been dotted with the occasional surprises.
There is still some possibility of the January numbers being affected by the German blip over the VAT hike and overall these will probably prove to be a temporary abnormality.
JPY
Yesterday, the JPY strengthened against most of the majors and rose to 115.75 against the USD. However, in the NY trading session, US investment bank Lehman Brothers Holding said that the home mortgage loan delinquency will not affect their earning and the risk is well contained.
The carry trade unwinding action stopped and JPY bearishness was rekindled. USD/JPY rose sharply to 117.50 however, another strengthening is expected.
Today, due to a lack of information from Japan, we are expecting range trading that will test the support and resistance levels and only a breach of one of them implies the establishment of new forces which may cause another significant movement.
Technical News
EUR/USD
Volatility is relatively low and strong resistance at 1.3245 and support at 1.3114 forms a tight range.
Yesterday this pair moved to the 1.3225 level and is stalling at current price level of 1.3210 - 1.3222. On the daily chart we can see a slight bearish reversal forming on the slow stochastic which crosses just above 80 and turning downwards.
GBP/USD
Are bears waking up after a bullish trend ending ? Well, it seems like the pair is building a significant down move towards support at 1.9200.
However, today it seems as though stochastic are showing reason for the USD to gain some ground as the RSI is in neutral area.
USD/JPY
Daily Studies are pretty neutral, when next resistance is at 118.47 and it seems that this barrier won't be breached today.
On the downside, there is a trend line expected to test near current levels, at 116.00. Today range trading is expected between those levels.
USD/CHF
The USDCHF range trades between 1.2100 and 1.2260 in the last days and is in an overall short term down trend.
There are significant signs of reversal present and intraday's are neutral. We favor the upside and it may be a good entry point .
The Wild Card
EURGBP
4H charts slow stochastic are implying an upcoming bearish trend when crossroads above 80 is observed, however daily charts showing us mixed data when slow stochastic is at 50 and RSI at 43.
Forex traders: today we are expecting range trading between the 78.50 - 82.00.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1731
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 15, 2007 - 09:28 pm: |
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With permission from Sonray Capital Markets:
The yen soared across the board on Tuesday as worries about the U.S. subprime mortgage sector pushed investors to further unwind trades funded by borrowing at low rates in the Japanese currency.
U.S. subprime borrowers fell behind on their mortgages at the highest rate in four years in the fourth quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday.
Resuming a trend that began a few weeks ago, the yen posted its sharpest gains against three of the highest-yielding currencies -- Sterling, New Zealand and Australian dollars.
The New Zealand dollar, the currency with the highest interest rate in the developed world, plunged more than 2.4 percent to 80.08. The Australian dollar also plummeted,
down 1.7 percent to 90.81 yen.
There is some feeling among traders that the current carry unwinding is far from over and that the market will experience more volatility as investors pare back further risk in their leveraged portfolios.
Traders sold higher risk assets as delinquencies among U.S. homebuyers raised speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by midyear.
The yen's gains coincided with falls in the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell more than 200 points in its second-biggest sell-off of the year, as mounting losses in the subprime mortgage sector weighed down shares of companies exposed to the U.S. housing market.
In addition, comments from Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda warning that a real-scale unwinding of yen carry trades is yet to come, also prompted investors to buy more yen.
Tuesday's price action was also fuelled by weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data, retail sales grew in February to 0.1%, the U.S. government said, but not as much as
economists had forecast at 0.3%.
The odds the Fed will cut its overnight lending rate between banks to 5 percent from 5.25 percent by its June meeting increased to 54 percent yesterday, from 38 percent on March 12, according to U.S. interest-rates futures contracts for July U.S. stocks plunged, wiping out three days of gains, after the mortgage delinquencies and slower retail sales heightened concern the home-loan crisis is spreading across the economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index all had their steepest retreats since a global rout two weeks ago. The Dow average sank
242.66, or 2 percent, to 12,075.96 for only its second drop of more than 200 points since May.
Crude oil fell to a one-month low in New York after U.S. stocks declined on concern delinquencies among borrowers will spread, slowing the economy. Prices also fell after
the top oil officials for Kuwait and Libya said OPEC will probably maintain its current output targets at a meeting on March 15.
Crude oil for April delivery fell 98 cents, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $57.93.
Gold prices fell in New York for the third session in a row as declines in global equity markets revived concern that investors will sell commodities to cover losses.
The sell off in the Aud overnight was much much sharper than anticipated, our strategy is currently long at .7845 with stops just below the market at .7795.
Another round of carry trade unwinding is likely to result in a break to the downside testing .7750 ahead of a deeper decline to .7715.
Our strategy for today is to keep our stop on longs at just under .7795, however we will look to turn short just under .7790 , stops should be placed just above .7830, 50 % profits should be placed at .7755 and the stop lowered to entry at this point the balance of profits should be placed at .7735.
Our strategy for the Eur is long from 1.3163 with stops at break even after locking in 50% profits at 1.3203, we will now raise the stop to just under 1.3185 as a failure here is likely to lead to a drop towards 1.3160 again.
For an intra day trade our strategy will look to establish short Eur just under 1.3185, stops should be placed just above 1.3216, 50% profits should be placed at 1.3165 and stop lowered to entry the balance of profits should be placed at 1.3155.
The GBP strategy was stopped out after a false break through resistance at 1.9335 only managed a high of 1.9352 before selling against the JPY set in to create a low this morning at 1.9273. Whilst it is sitting on support here the price action is not convincing and another round of liquidation of JPY carry trades is likely to result in a test of the 1.9200 region.
We may see a small bounce back towards 1.9295/00 where our strategy is to establish short GBP with stops just above 1.9335, 50% profits should be locked at 1.9265 and stops lowered to entry, the balance should be placed at 1.9215.
Our strategy in the USD/JPY set short dollars at 117.65 and locked in 50% profits at 117.25 and 116.95.
There is scope on the day for a minor retracement towards 116.35/40 and our strategy would view this as an opportunity to re establish short USD with stops placed just above 116.85, 50% profits should be placed at 115.95 and stops lowered to entry at this point the balance of profits should be placed at 115.65.
Gold and Silver still look a little shakey a failure of last nights lows at 641.53 is likely to test 632.50 with a subsequent failure setting up a much deeper correction towards 610.00/615.00.
Silver is a little more pronounced, a failure of 12.65 is likely to see a test of 12.30 and perhaps 12.05, again our strategy is to wait.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
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