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     lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 338
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 01:12 pm: | 
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System trades with 100 point stop on each trade
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 339
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 04:14 pm: |
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closed out AUDJPY short @ 92.20
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 340
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 05:36 pm: |
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Looking to short the AUDJPY again @ around 92.48
Cheers
LAfee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 341
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 09:12 pm: |
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The EURNZD and the GBPJPY look like they may be setting up for a trade tonight. I have scraped my intention to trade the AUDJPY.
More info on EURNZD and GBPJPY later - if you are willing to stay up.
Cheers Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 781
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 09:38 pm: |
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Lafee
The stop results are not as good as the initial results without a stop ? correct.
You must have a cast iron constitution to let those trades fall away so far and come back to be winners if the chart indicates some of those losing trades would have been winning trades if no stop loss applied.
The standard deviation is not based on anything other than past trades which i find a bit hard to follow.
Sought of a histogram of your results to determine the norm ?
I gather you picked up 32 yen on the last trade.
32 yen profit as a percentage of 1 contract risk ?
4850 is one contract lot so 0.65%.
Say 50:1 leverage = 32.5%
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 342
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, March 02, 2007 - 10:01 pm: |
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Don't worry about percentages, just worry about the pips and how much they are worth. I made 33 pips per 10k contract. each pip is worth 100yen. I held 140k so:
14 X 32 X 100 yen = 44800 yen which = about 487 auzzie dollars.
Give the largest loss with the system without a stop is about 190 pips I was risking 14 X 190 X 100 = 266000 yen or about 2891 auzzie dollars. Obviously not a big trade. But a profit none the less.
As a general rule price stops only reduce your results. Of course it puts you in danger of the huge loss but if keep yourself diversified and don't get cocky with the leverage it is a much better deal. It may test your resolve, but I generally find that the path of most resistance provides the best reward.
Cheers
Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 788
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, March 04, 2007 - 08:24 pm: |
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http://www.woodiescciclub.com/forex/clyde-wallace-oct2005.html
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 346
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 10:19 am: |
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I have potential shorts for the:
USDJPY
AUDJPY
CADJPY
GBPJPY
Potential long is EURNZD.
The focus remains the same. My triggers are still quite far away from price action but I will let people know when they get closer to execution.
Cheers Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1717
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 05:45 pm: |
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Lafee
I have been looking into the carry trade and have found out that no one in Japan knows the true extent of it.
Best estimates are $430 billion. Multiply that by leverage used, and we arrive at ?how many trillions to unwind?
I see the POG at sub$400 before Christmas, but I don't expect too many to agree with me on that.
More importantly, the BOJ has stated that they expect the carry trade to be unwound by late 2007 or early 2008. But the important thing to note is that they expect to raise interest rates again in MAy, and bring rates to 2% by year's end.
Just logged on to the chart of USDJPY and could not believe it! I stated on another forum that we may see a yen at 85 by Christmas, but although a bit courageous (even for Ingot) I don't doubt it is an increasing probability.
I repeat my earlier belief, that the end of the carry trade is the cause of this current "adjustment" in world affairs - the stock market crash is just the visible manifestation of it - fear basically.
There will be some sick puppies out there tonight as their JPY to be repaid are now not only 0.5% pa higher, but in the last week as the chart below says, they have to repay 4.2% appreciation on top of that. (If I have read this correctly).
Interesting times!
While it is good to just "trade the chart" an understanding of the underlying action is also a confidence booster.
Cheers and best wishes - Ingot54
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 347
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 06:44 pm: |
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Ignot,
Yes the sheer pace of the move is quite breathtaking.
Looking at EURNZD @ 1.9169 for long and USDJPY @ 116.51 for short ATM. I may have to wait till US open to trade but I will be waiting. I'll only be able to get on if it starts spiking around which it will at some stage. I can only wait for it and hope that there will not be a V reversal.
The most uncommon events have the greatest opportunity Lets hope we bet on the right side.
Cheers
Lafee
(Message edited by lafee on March 05, 2007)
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 348
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 05, 2007 - 06:57 pm: |
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Ignot,
But how much do you trust your emotions?
Cheers Lafee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 349
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 12:48 am: |
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shorted usdjpy @ 115.85
Cheers
LAfee
If nobody can be certain of anything, how can I be certain of that?
Ayn Rand
When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased, I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time.
Ernest Cassel
"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the guts to sometimes say: I don’t know...." (You may not be able to change the world but can at least get some entertainment & make a living out of the epistemic arrogance of the human race).
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
|
ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1718
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 06, 2007 - 01:24 am: |
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Well done mate.
I was watching just now - looked like they wanted to take you out of it! 
But it's off again!
And I'm off to hit the hay. Was my birthday on 5th - wish I'd given myself an early birthday present yesterday and shorted the USDJPY a few days ago. I've been spruiking it long enough!
Still plenty in this trade though.
BTW - saw Shane Oliver and Gerard Minack on Lateline.
Minack mentioned the carry trade as one of the culprits in the present state of world markets.
DOW down in early trade, but rallied to be up 25 points as I write. Maybe the bottom is in sight if they hold the line.
Somehow I don't see it just yet - Minack predicts the XAO at 5000 by December! Mentions Australia's failure to see an export boom running with our resources boom and record full employment and productivity. Hmmm.
Trade well Lafee.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 350
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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