Archive through March 20, 2007

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lafee

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Post Number: 436
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Monday, March 19, 2007 - 03:34 pm:

USDJPY

Big fake out this morning in the USDJPY :-)

. The Gbpusd has held up best this morning. You can see the mechanics of the move. Expect USDJPY to signal direction of other majors tonight. If it continues there will be a lot of USDJPY bears wanting to protect their profits. Could be very big.

Bottom and top of my momentum study is the GBPUSD and the JPYUSD. So while the JPYUSD has lead positive momentum of recent weeks while the GBPUSD negative. A change in direction ie EURUSD goes down, usdjpy does up, gbpusd goes up. The best profit opportunity should be long the gbpjpy. There is often a relationship between why the leaders are leaders and the laggers are the laggers. When things change, they often switch roles at the same time. They are the most oversold or overbought.

Cheers
Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

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Post Number: 437
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 03:06 am:

Scalp setup on AUDJPY. Looking to go long around 9329

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

Member

Post Number: 438
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 07:28 am:

As the AUDUSD spikes around just above the 80c mark I know there is a big opportunity. Problem is I really don't have any idea on direction. It will be interesting to watch today.

I will exit my USDJPY long this morning :-)

Cheers Lafee.

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

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Post Number: 439
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 07:29 am:

Still looking at buying AUDJPY on a dip though.

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

Member

Post Number: 440
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 07:55 am:

Closed out USDJPY @ 117.65

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

Member

Post Number: 441
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 08:05 am:

Closed out EURUSD @ 1.3302

I have gone long AUDUSD @ 8003

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

ingot54

Member

Post Number: 1737
Registered: 05-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 11:40 am:

Lafee

I have been following your thread daily without comment - just learning from your direction. Thank you for your candid posts - they mean a lot to me. (And Wadda, Stocky and Kate - thank you)

This morning I seem to have diverged from your calls.

These were my trades yesterday (demo - no credit to demo players I admit):

Long one lot:
USDJPY @ 116.36 CLOSED @ 117.06 = +70 pips
GBPJPY @ 225.81 CLOSED @ 227.48 = +167 pips

Short one lot:
EURUSD @ 1.3317 CLOSED @ 1.3298 = +19 pips

TOTAL = 256 pips. All trades stopped out on stop.
___________________________________

Today - OPENED these at 06.15am:

Long one lot:
USDJPY @ 117.54

Short one lot:
EURUSD @ 1.3295
AUDUSD @ .7993

I am anticipating a slightly stronger USD in the short term, leading to a target of +/- 120 for the yen.

The AUD seems to have hit resistance around .8020 and I am unsure whether the RBA will intervene this time to keep the AUD under .80 or whether the natural consequence of a stronger USD will "take care of the problem" for the RBA! Of course, the left field event would be a stronger USD and a stronger AUD, but low odds of that perhaps.

Other factors emerging to strengthen the USD:

Lower oil (USD$57/barrel this morning)
Have not checked GOLD, but am expecting the seat of its pants to rip and drop out soon too.

If the above two proceed, the USD index should rise.

I am going to stick with my call but I hope no one puts any credence on it - keep in mind this is a demo a/c I run, and I do this only as an experiential/learning exercise.

Being right teaches nothing.

Being wrong is the greatest teacher there is.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

peterloh

Member

Post Number: 2434
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 11:49 am:

Hi ingot,

There is talk of the States lowering its interest rates because of the problems with residential properties.They have to keep the building industry going. Under such a scenario, won't the US$ weaken? If that is the situation, won't the gold price goes up in value? Just my thinking!

-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

lafee

Member

Post Number: 442
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 12:24 pm:

Peter,

Dunno really what I'm taking about. Could use your wisdom on it. Does this lending 'crisis' in the US have merit? The low doc lenders are likely to be the small banks. I think the big banks have very little exposure but they have been caught up in the downturn. They might be 10% lower than before it all started. Maybe the fed doesn't need to bail out the weaker players? Maybe its time to buy the US banks - the big ones.

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

Member

Post Number: 443
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 12:37 pm:

The AUDUSD is giving me a bit of a scare this morning. I will stick with it though. I also plan to buy AUDJPY @ 9374.

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

kate

Member

Post Number: 638
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 12:43 pm:

Peter, be careful with gold and anything else that has done well over the last few years (possibly metals?). Did you see what happened to the gold price a couple of weeks ago - traders sold it to pay for the carry trades that went wrong. Gone are the days where you had to buy and sell the physical stuff through a dealer, now you can buy and sell at the press of a button.

Re the USD, CPI figures are up, the true inflation figures are much greater than those released to the public. I really wonder if they can justify lowering interest rates, stimulating the economy is only going to postpone the inevitable.

Ingot, thanks for posting the Forex news of the day, I read it every day.
Lafee I don't contribute because I haven't a clue about currency trading however I read it with interest and am very envious about how little sleep you seem to need!

Regards
Kate

wadda

Member

Post Number: 472
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 01:50 pm:

Hi all,

I'm still long GBPJPY @ 22815 and 228.34 (bought two lots) from yesterday.

I'm still short the AUDUSD @ .7965 so I guess either Lafee will take the money and run or I will on this trade (depending on one's timeframe).

Ignot54 it seems your demo trades are going well...good on you. I'm pretty new to FOREX trading but have just jumped in and started trading (and learning) with real money.

Unfortunately I didn't/couldn't act on my planned trades last Sunday and thus they all went well!

cheers,

wadda

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

lafee

Member

Post Number: 444
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 02:25 pm:

Wadda,

Its judgement time now on the Auzzie. Right at 80c again.

Cheers Lafee

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon

lafee

Member

Post Number: 445
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, March 20, 2007 - 02:43 pm:

Citigroup

Bank of America

A working class hero is something to be.

John Lennon