Archive through April 07, 2007

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ingot54

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Post Number: 1786
Registered: 05-2004

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Tuesday, April 03, 2007 - 08:41 pm:

Missed the short ... so far

The chart below shows the current price touching the trend-line.

Will it rally from here?

If it does I might take a LONG overnight and short in the morning.

Not a bad strategy if it pans out.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1787
Registered: 05-2004

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Tuesday, April 03, 2007 - 09:08 pm:

Bouncing nicely ...

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stocky

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Post Number: 63
Registered: 10-2003

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Tuesday, April 03, 2007 - 10:52 pm:

Initial Bounce up to the Daily pivot. See how it reacts to the level..

I'm going to short some more at these levels if it's still hanging here in about an hour. If it can't go up through this pivot, looking like it could drop down to 0.8106 pivot next stop.

Stocky.

wadda

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Post Number: 511
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, April 03, 2007 - 11:38 pm:

Can't stay up all night(!) so went short AUDUSD @ 0.8136, stop @ 0.8186.

Also went short AUDJPY earlier tonight @ 96.36, stop @ 96.91.

Happy hunting.

wadda

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

ingot54

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Post Number: 1788
Registered: 05-2004

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 02:33 am:

AUDUSD: Could be some sustained selling by our RBA ...

AUDJPY: I did not get my long position - the thing stopped in its tracks at your pivot hurdle Stocky.

At the moment I am preferring the patient approach - even if I miss part of the move.

My personal growth goal is to trust myself with my own money! I have been a bit wanton on occasion, and tend to get all sweaty and carried away when on the scent of the hunt.

I am trying to keep an open mind, but the movement in both the AUD and JPY over the past 6 hours has wrong-footed me a bit. Not what I was expecting.

I will need to give myself an hour to soak up the vibes before placing the position - might look around for some up-to-date news release before that.

For now I am still with the original plan, but a bit more cautious.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stocky

Member

Post Number: 64
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 08:04 am:

Morning Guys,

I just sold 100K AUD/JPY @ 96.67, stop @ 97.12.

Stocky.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1789
Registered: 05-2004

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 08:17 am:

Good one Stocky.

I am just home from work and will be sitting in on the RBA announcement on my trading platform.

I am planning to short this also, and will tune in now to see what price I can get. It must be dropping already.

Have not looked at the AUDUSD yet and I suspect it too will almost correlate with the JPY today. I think shorting these 2 pairs is an excellent "double-whammy" approach.

Let's see where this goes. All the news is positive there will be a rise, yet they finish the news items with: "Experts are evenly split about the rise."

We have a chance!

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stocky

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Post Number: 65
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 10:08 am:

Worked out well.!!

Closed out AUD/JPY @ 96.01 and AUD/USD @ 0.8076.

CPI is out late in April, this will give the RBA the ammo they need to raise rates, i will be putting it in my calendar to look at long AUD positions around then.

Happy to walk away and enjoy my long weekend now, taking tomorrow of work too.!

Talk soon.
Stocky.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1790
Registered: 05-2004

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 10:15 am:

The AUDJPY and AUDUSD have both been trending downwards last night hand-in-hand, so I was unable to decide until this morning at what level I would short.

I plunged in at:

AUDUSD : SOLD 5 mini contracts @ 8111.50
...........................bought back @ 8071.00 + 40.5

AUDJPY : SOLD 2 mini contracts @ 9649.00

...........................bought back @ 9575.00 + 74

Had to be slick with the "close position" button, as the rebounds can be just as sudden. My greatest fear was that contingent buy orders would pop the price back up over the sell price, and not only take away my profits, but snap back and take me out at the stops!

It was just one scenario that bothered me - really sharpens the reflexes after a night shift, let me tell you.

Good trading today guys - let's do this again sometime.

By the way - I will be watching closely in May because I think the pressure will be irresistible for a rise now. I heard that the bond rate has risen - apparently that was considered noteworthy.

Anyone know what that means to currencies, and the economic indicators?

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stocky

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Post Number: 66
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 11:28 am:

Hi Ivan,

Great work on the Exit's. I missed the low on the AUD/JPY as i had to close my positions over the phone, so had to wait for the ramble on for the confirmation of my AUD/USD close before he would close the Yen.

If the Bond rate has risen, that would mean that it would be a lower chance of the rates rising according to the bond market. Simple example to explain how it works would be.

Bond is worth 93.75 when interest rates are expected to be 6.25% (100 - 6.25)

Bond is worth 93.50 when interest rates are expected to be 6.50% (100 - 6.50)

Of course the real prices are a lot more involved including time etc. Just a simple example.

Stocky.

stocky

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Post Number: 67
Registered: 10-2003

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 04:39 pm:

Afternoon,

I'm going long EUR/USD now, 1.3340. Stops @ 1.3280 just below yesterdays low.

Stocky.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1791
Registered: 05-2004

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 10:13 pm:

I am short GBPJPY @ 23444

and USDJPY @ 11882

I'm wondering what effect the data from USA will have tonight.

Of to work now - Cheers and good trading guys.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

fibonacci

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Post Number: 187
Registered: 10-2003

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Wednesday, April 04, 2007 - 10:32 pm:

Hope you don't mind my intrusion ingot but I'm curious as to your analysis of USDJPY.
LOOKS medium term bullish to me.

jpy

John

You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1793
Registered: 05-2004

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Thursday, April 05, 2007 - 05:35 am:

Hi John - I had no idea you were a local - might try to grab a coffee sometime with you. (I'm at Minyama).

Yes I understand the question fairly clearly, and the short answer would have to be a matter of time frames. The news at 5.30pm Wednesday said:

USD
The greenback has been appreciating a bit against the majors in the last 24 hours, as traders are trying to push it a bit higher before the end of the week, mainly due to the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Poole regarding a possible rate cut.

It looks as if the expectations from the US market are relatively high this week, and if all actual figures will be released inline with expectations we might see a local rebound for the Greenback.

JPY
The JPY has been rallying down since the beginning of March, putting carry trades back in motion.

The only important piece of information that was released from the Japanese market yesterday was the monetary base which came in higher than expected at -19.1% after expectations of -22.0%.

The report did not affect the downtrend so much as the JPY went down further.

The ongoing JPY weakening has raised the issue of whether the Japanese economy will be discussed during next week's G7 meeting, and maybe put some positive energy into the weak currency.

As a whole it looks like the JPY will be submitted to external price movers, which will culminate in the shape of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls.

I took that to be very bullish. But then I read the next analysis and had to consider where this might go in the next 24 hrs:

USD/JPY
The 4H chart is showing us that the aggressive bullish trend has come to an end where the RSI is at 85 and slow stochastic at 95, calling for the bears to come, so get ready for them.

With currencies I am tending to place less importance on technical indicators than I might with equities. The news is important, but also an unknown, so in one sense to take an early position offers a higher risk:reward I feel.

I widen stops and take the smallest positions possible under such conditions to avoid getting stopped out. That in itself is a calculated risk because of the rogue candles that light up with their long shadows and tails.

So I chose the short view because of the analyst's review of the 4 hour chart.

It sparked the contrarian in me, and I have to say it was a fairly bold call for me.

Looking at your chart, I agree that it is looking very bullish, though beginning to range sideways during the last 30 hrs of your chart.

I can not post a chart right now, but the trend is beginning to look bearish on the hourly chart (IG Markets do not have 4 hourly tick charts (unless I load the Advanced Tick Charts - which are very good and customisable - Fibinacci levels added if you wish)

Hope that explains why I chose the short. Always interested to know what others might have done - this stuff is still relatively new for me.

Kind regards

Ivan

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.