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     sabre
Member
Username: sabre
Post Number: 883
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 21, 2006 - 08:07 am: | 
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Will be interesting if it drops again or will it bounce. Anyone got the guts to short it now to $9 lol
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greatdane
Member
Username: greatdane
Post Number: 231
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 21, 2006 - 09:46 am: |
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It is interesting to note that, according to this TimesOnline article, silver led gold down.
Normally it is the other way around – Au taking Ag with it.
Is this not a strong indication that the silver market is highly manipulated and the Ag shorts are having a hard time atm?
“By mid-afternoon in New York, silver had crashed by more than $2 to $12.45 after earlier changing hands at $14.69 — the highest level since January 1983.
The dramatic plunge quickly gripped other markets, with gold tumbling more than 4 per cent to $610.50 an ounce, its largest one-day drop in more than six years.” }
9072-2144443%2C00.html,http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9072-2144443 ,00.html
Regards, GreatDane
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greatdane
Member
Username: greatdane
Post Number: 232
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 21, 2006 - 02:58 pm: |
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MARKET TALK: Conspiracy Theory Surfaces On Soros, Silver 21/04/06 14:02:00
0402 GMT [Dow Jones] Trader rumor mill linking investor George Soros' alleged silver stocks with metal's 20% plunge overnight: According to conspiracy theory, Barclays bought Soros' warehoused silver to back proposed exchange traded fund, anticipation of which has driven up price 80% this year.
"We don't know the rate but we feel there's been a deal done and the market got wind of it," says Sydney-based trader.
More conventional thinking links selloff to some USD strength, slight oil easing triggering profit taking from unsustainably steep run-up, with pent-up stops exacerbating downward spiral.(JAD)
…………..and McNeil’s little outfit get further delayed - hmmm
Regards, GreatDane
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karragarra
Member
Username: karragarra
Post Number: 121
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 21, 2006 - 03:58 pm: |
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In a situation where no-one knows what is really happening, it has been quite interesting to see the variety of suggestions put forward as to the drop in the price of Silver. Great Dane's reference to Soros above was interesting, but I have also seen reference to a Comex conspiracy with dealers giving no buy bids, Maunds " Oversold" theory,and concerted action of the shorts. It was always going to be interesting.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1346
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 22, 2006 - 06:05 am: |
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Excuse my observation ... I am not a metals buff. But usually the action should be seen in the chart - that is, did any indicator demonstrate this was likely to occur?
No ... and yes!
Looking back at charts and commentary - all of which I respect and find very informative, it is amazing how 12 hours can change our viewpoint.
While we could not have foreseen the stealth with which those who dumped this metal have acted, we could have obtained a clue from the exhaustion-peak forming on the chart - Tryhay has posted an excellent weekly candle chart showing the blow-off developing.
So yes, it is hardly surprising that this pattern did what these normally do - retrace more swiftly than they build. To that extent, the fall was forecast in the chart. It was always going to occur.
Archer - I find your caution commendable and prophetic - (Monday 17th April 8:24am and Tuesday 18th 8:54pm), and now, I find myself wondering can this happen to the XAO?
The reply can only be in the affirmative.
Notice how bullish posters on this thread have been, particularly on the previous two days. This is not a criticism - far from it. Given the movement in gold, and materials generally, backed by supply/demand equations, I too felt the time had come for silver to find its feet.
But, like a " thief in the night" the safe has been cracked and emptied. Along with it, our dreams.
If you dont have a GSLO in place, what's stopping you? (Pun intended.)
Keep Smiling
Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 1863
Registered: 02-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Saturday, April 22, 2006 - 06:55 am: |
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Nuggets
What a night!
The Bulls are alive and kicking!
I'd like to see how the GSLO'ers get back into this great game with a BIG GAP facing them on Monday
I Refer you to Bloomberg
"Copper, Zinc Soar to Records in London, Head for Sixth Weekly Advance
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and zinc soared to records, gold rallied and silver rebounded from its biggest drop in 23 years as investment funds returned to buying commodities.
The gains capped a week of speculation that the three-year commodity rally may have peaked, sparking a sell-off of industrial and precious metals. Investors resumed purchases today, sending copper and zinc to their sixth straight weekly gains. Gold traded near its highest in 25 years and silver, down 14 percent yesterday, jumped the most in 11 years.
``There are still good times to be had in these markets,'' said Paul Netherwood, who co-manages Beach Horizon LLP's $70 million commodity fund in London. ``Commodities have a long way to go.''
Copper for delivery in three months climbed $484, or 7.7 percent, to $6,780 a metric ton at 6:49 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange, the biggest gain since 1988, after reaching a record $6,830. Zinc jumped $235, or 7.6 percent, to $3,310 a ton, after touching $3,360, an all-time high. Nickel rose 5.1 percent to $19,400 a ton, after reaching $19,500, the highest since at least 1987.
Rising demand from China, the world's fastest-growing major economy and biggest consumer of most metals, is luring investors to commodities from sugar to gold. Fund investments in commodities will rise 38 percent this year to $110 billion, according to Barclays Capital.
China's economy expanded 9.9 percent last year. Growth in the first quarter was 10.2 percent, President Hu Jintao said April 16. Industrial production expanded 17.8 percent last month after gaining 20.1 percent in February.
Gold's Gains
Copper prices are up 10.4 percent this week, the most since July 1999. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper for delivery in May rose 17.85 cents, or 6 percent, to $3.1405 a pound after reaching a record $3.142. Prices have more than doubled in the past year.
Gold rose, capping a sixth straight weekly gain, rebounding from a 2 percent drop yesterday, on renewed speculation that it will fetch better returns than stocks and bonds.
Bullion is up 45 percent in the past year, and reached a 25-year high yesterday of $649 an ounce before investors began a sell-off in precious metals that included silver. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has gained 13 percent and holders of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury have lost 3.2 percent in the past year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.
Held Its Ground
``The gold market held its ground,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``That it stayed well above $600 in the face of the silver sell-off convinced investors that it's still involved in a bull market.''
Gold futures for June delivery rose $12.40, or 2 percent, to $635.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 5.9 percent this week, the biggest since February 2002. A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for a specific delivery date.
Silver for immediate delivery rose $1.025, or 8.6 percent, to $13.01 an ounce at 6:51 p.m. in London, the biggest one-day gain since March 1995. Silver yesterday reached $14.74, matching the highest since February 1983, before joining a sell-off in metals including gold and copper. Silver's 0.7 percent gain for the week was the sixth straight.
``Prices would not be where they are if not for the huge, unprecedented amount of money coming into the market,'' Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London, said in a phone interview.
Fund Investment
Silver has risen this year on expectations that Barclays Plc would soon receive approval for an exchange-traded fund linked for the metal, boosting demand.
Copper prices have been fueled by a drop in production at Grupo Mexico, owner of the country's two largest copper mines, and at sites owned by New Orleans-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.
Freeport said April 18 that variations in the richness of metal deposits in different parts of the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, led to a 34 percent drop in first-quarter production to 100,400 tons.
Grupo Mexico may have to suspend May deliveries of zinc after a two-week strike at its San Martin underground mine, spokesman Juan Rebolledo said this week. It's also losing daily production of about 1,100 tons of copper and won't be able to ship to customers next month because of a labor dispute at La Caridad mine, Rebolledo said April 16.
Europe, the world's second-largest copper-consuming region after Asia, also has seen expanding demand for the metal. Cumerio, the copper producer spun off by Belgian metals producer Umicore SA, said today first-quarter product deliveries, including wire rods, rose by as much as 15 percent.
Falling Stockpiles
``Real demand for copper semi-products in Europe could improve by 8 percent to 10 percent during the first half of the year,'' Thierry Centner, Cumerio's vice president for copper products, said today in an interview from Brussels.
Copper stockpiles monitored by the LME declined for a second straight day, dropping 425 tons, or 0.4 percent, to 118,000 tons. That equates to less than three days of global consumption. Zinc inventory has plummeted 32 percent this year to 267,250 tons, according to the LME data, an amount that can be consumed within less than 10 days.
First-quarter nickel output from Australia's Murin Murin mine fell 15 percent to 7,302 tons because of maintenance, Minara Resources Ltd., the country's second-largest producer of the metal, said today. Minara, based in Perth, accounts for about 60 percent of the mine's production.
Inco Ltd., the world's No. 2 nickel producer, said yesterday demand for the metal will outpace production this year because of increased use by stainless steel producers, which consume about two-thirds of global supply.
Among other metals traded on the LME, aluminum rose $133, or 5 percent, to $2,778 a ton. Tin added $150 to $9,125 a ton and lead gained $65, or 5.5 percent, to $1,250 a ton. "
Bon Voyage and Gods speed
PS The XAO is now well and truly weighted in favour of our Resource Sectors and not the Banks as was once the case
PPS It's amazing how a little 3year Resources Bull Market can change the fabric of the XAO
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 22, 2006)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 158
Registered: 09-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 22, 2006 - 09:19 am: |
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Yes these are interesting times (understatement)
Our XJO never looked as overbought as gold and silver - but it has a lot more red in the chart than one would wish for.
As The Captain has indicated above both gold and silver have bounced back today - they have not retraced to the 50 day SMA but perhaps that is all they are up for presently??
XJO - Certainly doesnt look like a column (as AU & AG do) ~ is stuck at some resistance currently....
Gold - Should further discuss this in the anyone for tea thread ~ Indicators certainly look maxed out here...
Silver - has bounced back
I nearly did not include this but the amount of volitility at the moment is somewhat unsettling: particularly as the current bull run is ~3 yrs old..
mark
(Message edited by tryhay on April 22, 2006)
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1473
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 22, 2006 - 08:16 pm: |
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Ingot
If fuel prices stay high or indeed continue to rise
it will lead to a demand crash on the products that
are coming from the countries that are fueling this
resource boom
Resources will plunge as will the XAO
Timing is the hard part(;->
And this will of course only be a correction in a
continuing resources bull market
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1764
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 29, 2006 - 09:55 pm: |
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archer
silver on target for $15
i challenge you to a date!
I am picking 19 May because I looked at a calendar and not a chart
timing is everything!
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1481
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 30, 2006 - 11:43 am: |
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Rederob
Silver could be 15 on monday or on your date or early next
year
What difference does the date make
In a few short years 15 dollars for an ounce of silver
will seem ridiculous
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1483
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 30, 2006 - 03:12 pm: |
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Grey metal is golden as long-awaited fund makes impressive debut
http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/earthlink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={C6B59B17-1F1C-4F62-8370-583E496653E3}
(Message edited by robin on April 30, 2006)
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1484
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 30, 2006 - 03:44 pm: |
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Hyperinflation: Wiemar, Germany January 1919 to November 1923
[Expressed in German Marks needed to by an oz. of ag. or au.]
Jan. 1919 Silver 12 - Gold 170
May. 1919 Silver 17 - Gold 267
Sept. 1919 Silver 31 - Gold 499
Jan. 1920 Silver 84 - Gold 1,340
May 1920 Silver 60 - Gold 966
Sept. 1921 Silver 80 - Gold 2,175
Jan. 1922 Silver 249 - Gold 3,976
May. 1922 Silver 375 - Gold 6,012
Sept. 1922 Silver 1899 - Gold 30,381
Jan. 1923 Silver 23,277 - Gold 372,447
May. 1923 Silver 44,397 - Gold 710,355
June 5, 1923 Silver 80,953 - Gold 1,295,256
July 3, 1923 Silver 207,239 - Gold 3,315,831
Aug. 7, 1923 Silver 4,273,87- Gold 68,382,000
Sept. 4, 1923 Silver 16,839,937 - Gold 269,429,000
Oct. 2, 1923 Silver 414,484,000 - Gold 6,631,749,000
Oct. 9, 1923 Silver 1,554,309,000 - Gold 24,868,950,000
Oct. 16, 1923 Silver 5,319,567,000 - Gold 84,969,072,000
Oct. 23, 1923 Silver 7,253,460,000 - Gold 1,160,552,662,000
Oct. 30, 1923 Silver 8,419,200,000- Gold 1,347,070,000,000
Nov. 5, 1923 Silver 54,375,000,000- Gold 8,700,000,000,000
Nov. 13, 1923 Silver 108,750,000,000- Gold 17,400,000,000,000
Nov. 30, 1923 Silver 543,750,000,000- Gold 87,000,000,000,000
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1768
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 01, 2006 - 03:08 pm: |
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Silver could be 15 on monday or on your date or early next
year
archer
You may have "lucked out" today unless we tack on $1.13 overnight.
If you also miss out on "my" date, your record will be wrong 2 out of 3 times.
I have therefore failed you.
Redemption can be achieved if you take a more evaluative approach.
Be it known that I sell indulgences.
(Bro Hilarius is my bag man.)
(Although I think like you that $15 we become a distant memory - as is $10 now despite being breached less than 2 months ago!!!!)
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1490 | |
