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     kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 473
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, December 08, 2006 - 09:11 am: | 
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Captain C
Sold most of my miners yesterday, think the last one will go today. Fed up with the volatility and having to keep close tabs on the sentiment. I'll get back in when there is a clearer indication that metals prices are going up.
Rederob
Whilst the chocolate eggs may have gone I kept the Faberge ones.
Started to get back into oil, Only AOE so far but AED looks good.
Kate
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2297
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 10, 2006 - 04:46 pm: |
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Ahoy 
Katie
As I saw it Mid-week
There was a high probability of
"Rough Sea and Gale"
Those who venture on long sea passages will always strike bad weather and almost inevitably meet a gale at some time. This will not be a rare event and therefore is the most important factor in the design of the craft, her gear and her organisation.
A gale must be a routine matter to the deep water yachtsman, even if uncomfortable and perhaps slightly dangerous, as is fire to a fireman.
Oddly enough it is not the invigorating fast sails under perfect conditions, or even the inspiring coastal scenery that leave the most lasting experiences on the mind.
Years after the fierce grandeur of a gale at close quarters is remembered in every minute detail and some men vow never to return to the sea.
Calms at sea also carry the same vivid memories for those who do not motor away and leave the experience untasted.
Many ocean racing skippers must remember occasions when in retrospect they realise that the ship was eased more than necessary and perhaps more than their opponents’ vessel. Probably the same will also remember occasions when they drove their men and materials beyond their limits.
Very few yachtsmen have unlimited supplies of money so financial necessity alone entails detailed planning and the avoidance of any costly delay. Many cruises have come to grief when money ran out unexpectedly and prematurely.
The grief must have been heavy indeed, as so often happened, the cruise was abandoned at the stage where the costs of maintaining the craft were heaviest, yet the value of the craft was least.
Sailing in Rough Sea and Gale confronts the skipper with all the problems and challenges a man can be faced with at sea and the crew with wet shirts.
The decks are soon pooped and it is really hard sailing as all hands are required on deck ready to run for shelter at a moments notice.
If we are lucky after some heavy going the seas finally tame and we can then sail off on the crest of a wave as we find favourable wind gusts and the weather charts improve
Instantly our velocity through the water improves and we can race north under a full spread of sail again presented to the wind. Lots of Green candlesticks will be left in our wake and their will be a large waiting list of admiring sailors that have just simply missed the boat.
Sadly, it must always be remembered "All sailing seasons do come to an end".
To the deep seaman of the Global Exchange who is particular about precise classifications, a rough sea means that the waves are 40 meters high and a gale means a sustained wind speed of 80 knots. However this does not make him respect the less furious seas as all can sometimes breed into wild gales.
Overwhelming of the ship by the violence of the waves breaking over even large vessels have seriously damaged the ship of any size. Even large ships have been lost at sea.
When this happens old textbook's surface in every yacht club bar in Wall Street Collins Street and every Main Street on the Global Exchange.
“Is the weather change being caused by a temporary shift by a few bearish skippers taking a rest?”
“Will she breed into a minus 10% - 20% -or 50% correction?”
Are they “Caught out” in a devastating full yachtsman’s gale?
There are many theories written on the best method of rough weather handling a craft on the Global Exchange.
In my view, “Evasion” is the only policy.
Even if more times than not, the forecasts of a possible gale does not eventuate. There is always time to get back on board and sometimes even at a more comfortable level.
If the skipper runs for shelter on the first sight bearish weather, the seas are becoming hostile, and has the common sense to wait for the storm to pass overhead, the odds of him ever facing the eye of a revolving storm will be relatively small.
However if he delays Lots can be lost.
No skipper worth his salt would consider dragging more than a few sails and God save his crew if it is more than that.
If you are allowed to read the secret logbooks of many experienced skippers you will note an all too common practice. It is often referred to as ‘boxing the bear’ or ‘boxing the compass.’ Surprisingly, it is a most popular practice and cruise strategy.
You should by now have or working on a Contingency Buy-Back plan/price per share if the Rough weather or Gale does not eventuate
You done good Katie!
If worse comes worst we can always tell our children we shorted at the ~Top
I also love to "Accumulate by Selling" and Buy-Back later-on when I get some sort of signal
I often place a contingency Buy order at my Evasive price or better still The Should Have Been "Correct Evasive Price Level"
In this 25-50 year Commodity Boom
I can't see any better way to ACCUMULATE more of the same
Going back on land to smell roses just doesn't do it for me
Bon voyage and Gods speed
PS With a bit of luck We could be the proud owners of Many more shares next week or later ALBEIT at lower prices
PPS Safety at Sea is Paramount
NB: Marine Insurance and Brokerage is very cheap Nowadays
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 476
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, December 10, 2006 - 08:42 pm: |
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Captain C
Monday should be an interesting day, Metal prices up but BHP and RIO down in London on Friday. Looks like I'll not only have the hours before open to plan but the whole day. The whole week would even be nicer. I've been throwing oil on the troubled waters and that seems to be working well, looks like I might continue that plan for the moment.
Regards
Kate
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1708
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 11, 2006 - 10:00 am: |
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Kate
Re your friday post
I think you have good intuition :->
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 478
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 11, 2006 - 10:36 am: |
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Archer - thank you.
Regards
Kate
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villageidiot
Member
Username: villageidiot
Post Number: 19
Registered: 06-2006
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 11, 2006 - 11:32 am: |
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ZFX just posted an exchange notice of a unplanned shutdown for 7 days, with a reduction in zinc production of 8,300 Tons and 700 tons of lead. As there is currently only 87,000 tons of Zinc and 40,000 ton of lead on the LME, world wide it is significate and may put more pressure on the prices of these two metals. This will take a little time to filter though due to stock piles but ZFX has stated it wont be able to make up the lost production.
If you listen to the VillageIdiot, Who is the Fool.
NB I hold.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1973
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, December 11, 2006 - 03:06 pm: |
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Archer
I agree with you about Kate's intuition
As a matter of interest is intuition equally valid for :-
(1) Females
(2) Males
and the following :-
(A) TA only users
(B) FA only users
(C) FA + TA users
Are there any books on how to apply intuition to market dealing?
In your mind what are the sources of human intuition?
Can they be identified and optimised?
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1711
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, December 12, 2006 - 03:41 pm: |
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Hilarius
I've only observed it in females-(Males being a very mechanical creature)and so few in number that answering
your second question is impossible
My best guess at where it comes from is that its a form
of subconscious learning
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2304
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 13, 2006 - 11:58 am: |
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Ahoy SCO Katie
The seas seems to have settled down for the moment
I have hoisted the Main Sails before those greedy Poms and Yanks wake up
She really looks like a "Fine Ocean Going Type" with her Heavy Mainsails presented to the wind
Salute and Gods' speed
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 13, 2006)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 481
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 13, 2006 - 01:14 pm: |
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Captain C
The water still looks muddy to me. I'm keeping my fingers crossed you're right because I'm struggling to find trades that I like.
Kate
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2305
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 13, 2006 - 02:44 pm: |
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Crikey! You could right Katie
Most of my tight stops have been hit already!!!
Geez whiz! It sure is getting choppy!
PS Crikey!
I only have RIO and NCM left flapping in the wind
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 13, 2006)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on December 13, 2006)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 2314
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 13, 2006 - 10:44 pm: |
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Ahoy Dear Friar
As the only IC member with half a brain in the Fine Art of Fundamental Analysis
Why are our 2 twin ships RIO and BHP heading in opposite directions
Why are our other 2 twin ships NCM amd LHG heading in opposite directions
Can I tell you what I think?
Hmm!
I feel it is better for you and your sweet FA mates to show me your FA approach to this conundrum first
As you say FA leads TA
Salute and Gods' Speed
PS It is starting to look a bit obvious to me!
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 2125
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, December 13, 2006 - 10:56 pm: |
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Charles
If you can leave you insults out of this forum and offer some constructive views, we might all enjoy this site a lot more.
From a fundamental perspective there is no conundrum to explain.
However, if there are issues with chart direction, perhaps your analysis can help demystify any concerns.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 1981
Registered: 04-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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