Archive through April 16, 2007

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lafee

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Post Number: 522
Registered: 04-2003

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Wednesday, April 11, 2007 - 02:47 pm:

Wadda,

The difference is my targets are always dynamically adjusting to the data as time passes from entry. That way I am dealing with something more predicable (short term) all the time. A target by measuring the height of a triangle and projecting it up as a target may be a profitable way to approach an exit. But it is not a predictive technique rather it is a nonpredictive trend following style, everything that goes big has to break a high at some point type technique. Which certainly isn't my style of trading.

Trouble comes when you mix the nonpredicitve and predictive techniques. If you believe the AUDUSD should get to 92c how does that affect your thinking and therefore trading decisions from the moment your forecast is taken on board. Does it bias your decision making process. Can you stay in the now or are you still where you were when you decided the AUDUSD is going to 92c. Will you know if your mind is playing tricks on you.

Cheers
Lafee

(Message edited by lafee on April 11, 2007)

There is no danger of the public ever finding any key to the secret of winning. The crazy gambling urge and speculative hysteria make that a certainty. But if the public play ever did get wise to the facts of life, the principle of ever-changing cycles would move the form away from the public immediately.

Robert Bacon
Secrets of Professional Turf Betting

wadda

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Post Number: 515
Registered: 10-2002

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 01:04 am:

Hi Lafee,

I think I understand what you're saying thanks. I suppose a lot of it boils down to what time frame one is looking at. For example, for a weekly trader, primarily using weekly charts, the thinking and psychology involved en-route towards a target of 92c is not dissimilar to a daily trading using daily charts and having a target of say 83c. An adjustment of the target once a week, or once a day is dynamic in their case.

Whereas you tend to trade a far shorter term from several hours to a few days where the dynamics are far greater.

Just some thoughts.

Cheers,

wadda

BTW went long USDCHF this morning at 1.2168 - was going well until about 5 mins ago. Ah well set the stops and go to bed.

"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

msparks

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Post Number: 932
Registered: 10-2004

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 06:57 am:

msparks

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 07:02 am:

ingot54

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Post Number: 1815
Registered: 05-2004

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 09:27 am:

'morning guys.

Mark you were correct - I am prepared to wear a big drawdown to achieve my long term trading success.

The large stop still sits at 8283 but I have lowered my destruction-of-trade (buy back the short position) at 8173 - a contingent buy order to close the position out.

You might think 8173 is a bit low considering the current position of the AUDUSD, but if you have a look at hourly charts (I have used them for illustration) it is not so ambitious after all.

I noticed that most of these up-moves in the Aussie dollar only last 48 hours on average.

Time is almost up. From my chart below you can see that the move to new highs, is followed 48 hours later by a correction which takes it just under the previous active high.

I have shaded these parts in red, and circled current "action" to expose the great opportunity setting up for a short trade.

Although nothing will guarantee history repeating in this case, there is an edge here. That is why I am encouraged to continue on with my short position, even though it has not been in profit since I opened it.

I have found that the longer the timeframe I trade, the longer it takes to achieve my objectives, and the more patience and discipline is required.

This trade has not met my sell conditions yet, and I will remain with it until it does.

Just for interest I printed out the chart below and drew some lines on it, and I expect a possible drop this morning to around 8170 +/-.

Trade well. (I was having connection problems and chose to sleep rather than fiddle with the computer yesterday).

Kind regards

Ingot

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stocky

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Post Number: 74
Registered: 10-2003

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 09:59 am:

I'm sure you'll be watching carefully Ivan.

Australian Dollar Little Changed Ahead of Employment Report

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar was little changed near a 17-year high before a government report which may show employment rose, increasing the chances of an interest rate rise next month.

The local dollar has gained against 15 of the 16 most traded currencies this year as traders raised bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase the overnight cash rate from a six-year high 6.25 percent. There is a 57 percent chance of a quarter point rate rise, according to an index compiled by Credit Suisse based on overnight trading in interest rate swaps.

``The labor market looks tight and we're bracing for another big number,'' said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist in New York at Westpac Banking Corp. ``The Australian dollar is going to go up.''

The Australian dollar bought 82.50 U.S. cents at 8:29 a.m. in Sydney, and matched yesterday's high of 82.67 cents, the most since October 1990. It traded at 82.51 cents late in Asia yesterday.

The currency may reach 82.80 cents today on the employment number, Franulovich said. Economists are expecting a gain of 15,000 after a 22,000 gain in February. The jobless rate was probably unchanged at 4.6 percent, close to January's 31-year low. The Bureau of Statistics releases the figures today at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1816
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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 10:54 am:

OK

I am following the action here, and as a trader trying to grow capital, I have to make a decision.

I was not aware of the 11.30am news release re: Aussie Employment numbers until you mentioned it Stocky - thank you mate.

I was hoping to buy more time to allow my trade on the AUDUSD to mature. Clearly it is being pushed down in readiness for an upwards spike at 11.30am.

Not only would I miss an opportunity to get out with minor abrasions and a couple of cuts and bruises, but I risk getting stopped out at my 8283 level - that is about +/- 40 pips from where we are as I write.

In summary - I am on a lose/lose ride here.

I lose around 10 pips plus costs, or 40 pips plus costs!

The higher risk is that the employment figures will be bad, and the AUD will sink like a rock, and that would be a higher reward.

What to do?

Sell now and live to fight another day.

I will close the trade within a few minutes - fishing for support here guys - Is this how you see it?

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

stocky

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Post Number: 75
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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 11:05 am:

If you're torn between 2 worlds Ivan, maybe cut half the position, and let the other half ride?

result in a -25pts worst case scenario.

Stocky.

stocky

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 11:24 am:

I think you'll be safe Ivan,

A lot of positive sentiment is already factored into the Aussie at the moment, i think that if we don't get results above expectations, we'll see a sell off in the Aussie, maybe back to about 0.82 figure.

The Bears are our there looking for a reason to sell off.

Not long now,

Stocky.

ingot54

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Post Number: 1817
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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 12:07 pm:

Mucked it up Stocky.

Decided to sell the lot at 8243 but by the time I hit the button, it said I bought at 8257.7 for a loss of 24.8 pips.

As you said, had I kept my nerve, the trade would have been safe - perhaps treat it as a new trade in a sense, and readjust stops.

The smart move would have been to estimate the top and boost the stop level for safety margin.

On to the next trade - may have a break now as that one lasted over a few days.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

msparks

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Post Number: 935
Registered: 10-2004

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 02:20 pm:

Ivan, Ivan, Ivan

Wot happened to the plan stan ???
Ya should a went shoppin, or to work, or stayed in bed, stop thinking Ivan, ya brain is your worst enemy.

so which is the high, the chart below or the data from IG above ?
EDIT ig data OK , looks like that was the high

nothin much happening in the 5 min chart except for the little spike to catch out weak shorters

(Message edited by msparks on April 12, 2007)

ingot54

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 09:10 pm:

I think in hind-sight it was wise to exit the trade Mark - even if unskilfully executed by me.

It is one thing to have a plan, but in currency trading, you have to be flexible - you are dealing with the economy of countries, not some board of directors on U-Beaut Equities Pty Ltd.

Had I stayed in the trade, I risk having to raise my stops further, putting more capital at risk than I wished for my personal risk profile.

Hindsight will be a good teacher - I still think the AUD is headed for a correction back under 8180 but not until the latest flurry stabilises following the employment figures today. There was a reaction, but in terms of gains/losses - it was a complete fizzer.

Perhaps Friday night there will be a move down, but the USD is still weak and no news to bolster it is due.

There was a report on the radio this morning that the US housing crisis is only half-way to its expected correction.

Estimations by the IMF stated that a further 6% to 10% downside is still expected. That news alone will dampen any USD moves.

I have peace about my actions Mark, except for a bit of a glitch with the exit. Looking at the market after waking up this evening, I am pleased to be out of it - directionless.

About to post the latest Forex News.

Chart below shows current AUD plus the position (red arrow) of the rise after the jobs figures this am.

Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.

msparks

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Post Number: 937
Registered: 10-2004

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Thursday, April 12, 2007 - 10:29 pm:

In Hindsight
If you were not prepared to go there, don't put your stop there, perhaps ? but if you are trading on news, you probably did the right thing.

Just wish i only had a 2 pip spread instead of the GSL, reckon i could play the 1 minute up and down just on breakouts from little consolidations and patterns until i lost all my money,

, just kiddin, the bit about losing money.
Those BIG RANGE 1 min candles are the grim reaper of the markets and the day trader eh.

the triangle puts the 90's in play

about 40 point range

does the first pull back from a breakout work with FX or are they too smart for that old wives trick ?
nothin doin here

msparks

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Friday, April 13, 2007 - 04:14 am: