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     ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1950
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 03:20 am: |  
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This thread is dedicated to the discussion of Multiple Moving Averages and multiple time-frame views of the Foreign Exchange Charts.
I will chiefly use the Rainbow charts and a multiple time-frame STOCHASTIC.
I have been able to chart over 20 different Stochastics in one window.
And I will be attempting to uncover similar indicators which will also lend themselves to this method.
More later (when I have access to my charts).
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1951
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 09:17 am: |
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I hope the comparison of the 4 charts below show the benefit of the Rainbow charts - that the reader will see past the pretty coloured bands - and recognise just what the charts are saying regarding the trend.
These immediate two charts are of the AUDUSD over the period 19th January 2007 to present day.
My main point here is that the charts can more quickly alert a trader to a strong or weak trend, reversal or random and chaotic price action - indecisive movement.
I begin to think that someone's Central Bank is setting a ceiling or supporting their currency when I see such violent sideways moves after a strong trend. Who knows ... it is really just a sign to wait until they go away and allow the trend to reassert itself.
The 1H view over a couple of days or one week again clearly shows the difference the MMA's can make to seeing the background trend.
I have saved a couple of these charts as .GIF and they have reproduced poorly. The next hopefully the .png ones will be clearer. Anyway - early in the thread - I will be improving the reproduction next time.
A later post will show the MTF (Multiple Time Frame) Stochastics - a work in progress. They were not my idea, but I thought they complemented the Rainbows brilliantly.
We'll keep them for later.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1952
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Sunday, October 21, 2007 - 09:38 am: |
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This is a trade I entered with absolute confidence.
The trend was clear and the pips were there for the harvest. A mature trader probably might have harvested double the number of pips, but I added to the position on the way, and the trade is still open, so I am quite pleased with myself at this stage of my preparation for full-time trading.
I used the 30-min and 15-min TF to pick entry, but sometimes you have to just plunge right in.
My goal is the enter heaps of these trending trades, (ie like the USDCAD too) and just ride them along for weeks on end - as long as the LT trend remains intact.
The chart below shows other entries, and you will appreciate I missed better entries because I was not at the screen.
Have to hit the hay - night shift leaves me ragged, and am working again tonight.
Feel free to post commentary.
Just looking ast the chart below in preview ... the second and third positions are barely visible (dotted green lines very faint), but the markers are clear on the LHS of the chart.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
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Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1953
Registered: 05-2004
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 03:00 am: |
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If you ever wanted to have a written plan - here is one from which to model your own.
I have adapted the one from the link below for myself, which I am using for my FOREX trading. I am certain you can soon flesh-out a workable plan for your own trading activities, whether equities, Indices, CFD's and so on.
The principles remain the same.
Remember, this is YOUR plan - no one twists your arm, so be flexible at first until you feel comfortable that you have molded it and made it your own. Then when you have the basics, remember to refine and improve, and DO have a weekly "Wash-up" of your activity, discussing these things with an empathetic friend ot mentor.
Due respect and acknowledgement needs to be given to the author of this brilliant piece of work.
I recommend you visit the site and read through much more informative articles than this one at:
http://www.trading-plan.co.uk/forex-trading-plan.htm
If you already have a workable trading plan, feel free to use this thread to share it, or suggest additions to this one etc.
________________________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________
My Online Forex Trading Plan
My Overall Objective
In the next five years I plan to retire. In order to help plan for my loss of salary, I have decided to begin trading foreign exchange to develop a small, but growing income stream which will be secondary at present, but which will be a replacement for my salary when I do leave my job. I will continue to keep working full time at present. My trading analysis and decisions will be done in the evenings and weekends.
My Strategy
I plan to start my trading with a cash sum of $10,000. If during the course of my initial trading, I exceed my targets then I will consider adding further funds. I propose to trade in currency using an on line FX broker and will be trading both long and short.
Currency Selection
I will only trade the the major currency pairs using a mini account as follows :
1. GBP/USD
2. EUR/USD
3. EUR/GBP
4. USD/CHF
5. USD/JPY
6. GBP/JPY
7. EUR/JPY
8. GBP/CHF
9. AUD/USD
10.USD/CAD
11.NZD/JPY
12.AUD/GBP
Trades will be selected using a technical approach
Trades will be selected using hourly, daily and weekly charts
Trades will be selected using candle analysis, support and resistance levels, and simple moving averages.
Trading Rules
I will use the following rules :
1. Every trade that I open will have a stop loss in place
2. I will always place the stop loss at the same time as my trade
3. I will never lower my stop loss
4. Maximum trade size to be one mini contract
5. I will determine the weekly trend before making a trading decision
6. I will not enter trades against the weekly trend
7. I will not exceed 10:1 leverage preferring 5:1 if available
8. My broker will be IG markets if the leverage available is compatible with this plan
9. I will write down my rules in an unambiguous form
Money Management
My money management rules will be dictated by the following rules.
1. The maximum loss per trade to be 5% of capital
2. The maximum number of open trades at one time to be 5
3. Stop loss to be set at 200 pips below market price
Trading Targets
I feel that a return of 50% on my trading capital should be achievable in the first year after costs. I have divided this into 12 equal amounts giving a monthly target of $420.
If I can repeat this consistently I will be doing better then most and can always factor the amounts up as my experience grows. I would be happy of this target is achieved in less than 12 months.
A target of $420 per month for the first 12 months or a total of $5000 for the year. This equates to 5000 pips of profit in the year. On a full account this would equate to $50,000 of profit trading single contracts.
Trading Records
I will keep a trading diary every day
I will keep a trading journal record of each trade including the following:
Currency Pair
Price bought or sold
Position of stop loss
Time trade opened
Time trade closed
Profit or loss on the trade
A chart showing entry/exit if possible for further examination later
A daily balance of the overall account position, including cash in the account and open positions value
A weekly summary of the total capital at risk
A monthly P/L summary of closed trades
At the end of each trading week I will summarise my activity and set guidelines designed to exploit strengths and minimise weaknesses in my trading rules.
This will prevent repetition of error, and boost confidence and skill
I will discuss my activities with a colleague or mentor each week in order to improve my strike rate
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1954
Registered: 05-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 08:46 am: |
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C'mon Lafee ... I don't mind your company.
That USDJPY trade closed out at my Take Profit order set before I left for work. All three positions closed at 114.27 early Monday morning on the gap down at open. Pip count = 386.
I hardly get excited about it anymore. Even leaving a further 200 pips behind didn't worry me - I played my rules and I'm happy with what I was given.
Had I been watching the action, I could have coasted along with it and harvested what was falling on the floor.
But I have said before: "Work is th' curse of th' tradin' man"
Most fun you can have without laughing ... it's been a long time since I was 26 and I do get my jollies out of this! 
Unfortunately I have yet to master the art of reproducing good charts from the MT4 platform, but the gist of the pic is clear - prove the trend then ride it hard.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1089
Registered: 10-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 23, 2007 - 08:50 pm: |
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Don't tell me Ivan , you have found a way to make money.
Thats " Incredible "
I am still donating with tax deductible loss's to my IG cfd provider, in 1 minute and tick mode, when i get a chance.
It cost me $500 for a quick pee and a coffee the other night.
I still remember when Colin put up a currency chart of us and ozy dollar and said the target was 90 cents or something, quite a while ago.
Laffee scoffed and laughed but i have not heard his apology yet ? ha ha
Way back in those trading diaries somewhere, good ole Collin eh.
So you are a long termer Ivan with lots of cash, i like it, rainbow charts, comby van, head for Byron Bay and see what happened to all the free lovers of a past life, they all got greedy, sold land and made millions, while long term sitting around smokin pot & lovin each other.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1955
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 24, 2007 - 12:04 am: |
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Welcome to the thread Mark ... as if you need a welcome - door to my office is always open for you!
You won't find any street cred up here - just blue sky and fresh air!
I imagine there are plenty of smiles at the charts - friendly little fellas aren't they!
But if you just look AT the charts, that's all you will see - Psychedelia and Carnivale. By the end of this thread, I hope to have converted a few of those anonymous smirks to raised eyebrows, and converted the sceptical to believers.
Currently strapped for time and posting from workplace. But patience Bro, patience. You ain't seen nuttin' yet!
You will see the Multi-Time-Frame Stochastics.
And the MTF RSI.
The MTF CCI (perhaps).
And for those who are still with me after that, who knows ... !
I hope you like the Trading Plan Template above ... I'll bet you don't have one! Fewer than 5% of traders do use one ... strangely coincidental that around the same number consistently succeed at trading.
Every trader has a setup that is "owned" by them - it has their personal touch. I like to view FX pairs over weekly/Daily/4H and 1H time frames. I just look for trend ... little else.
Once I spot a stable-looking move, I look at the other indicators like Stochastics in each TF. When 3-out-of-4 of them line up, the trade can usually be short-listed, and if a pull-back has occurred an entry is usually not far away.
Once in the trade, I switch to longer TF and cruise. So long as the underlying trend (as big as Monthly, but generally Weekly) is intact, I couldn't care less about 'noise'.
It is true that the smaller trends grow into larger trends which eventually become THE trend if they continue, but unless these are shown to be turning points at support/resistance, it is fairly safe to work the other way around - believe the Long Term trend, and see the Short Term trend as 'noise'.
Other 'secrets' include using LOW leverage, WIDE stops and only ONE lot (at least early in the trade). Later if the move looks like being sustained, you could scale-in or pyramid into more lots, but this will depend on your philosophy.
ie: some prefer to buy 3 lots and scale-out as the position makes ground, and once the capital has been re-gained by off-loading part of the position, tighten the stops and allow the rest of the position to ride for free.
Anyway mark - I could ramble forever on this. At the end of the day one needs to discover the "aha" moment for one-self.
Drop in again some-time - the Ring-Master is always at home in this Rainbow world! (I was going to say "circus" but thought I'd better not!) 
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1956
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 24, 2007 - 12:42 am: |
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Mark - if you like 1 minute and 5 minute charts, you also need to be aware of Support/Resistance, and need to have the Long Term trend in view because eventually the LT trends do reassert themselves.
When that happens, that's the time you will harvest a bonanza of pips. Try it.
That's pretty much what I do, but LT - up to a couple of weeks for a trade to mature sometimes. It's like watching paint dry ... but when the trend reasserts itself (much like the AUDUSD will be doing this week) look out! The pips will overflow your account! It's satisfying to see the trends re-align themselves with their LT direction.
The USDCAD is another one of those - look for pullbacks like it is having/has just had, and hold on to your hat.
It is taking a long time for people to realise we are witnessing the demise of the US dollar - the end of an age so to speak, that has lasted more than 200 years.
The "old" money of Europe will win the day - not that they want to, but along with the move away from the USA as world's monetary standard, there are going to be some incredible opportunities. Fortunately for us, our currency is stable at the moment.
I am concerned that in the long term - in maybe 5 years, we may be on the same spiral as the USA because we do not have a manufacturing-based economy - only boom-bust commodity cycles. Our wheat/wool/cotton livestock production - the other things the rest of the world buys from us - is subject to drought conditions ... and floods ... and ...!
In the meantime - find the trends ... and ride them along.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1969
Registered: 05-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 05:49 pm: |
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Trying to save the MT4 screenshots in a way that they will reproduce clearly - have tried .png .gif .jpg and the bit colours and so on ... no success.
The best I can do is to take screen-shots and cut them up in "Paint" prog.
This is the Multi-Time-Frame Stochastics I was speaking about. Ignore the colours other than to know that the RED are longer term and the BLUE are the shorter.
The tool is constructed beginning from a default 5-3-3 and just adding 1 to each time frame like so:
5-3-3
6-3-3
7-3-3
8-3-3 ... right up to 24-3-3.
Why so many and why such a range?
When you use any charting package, you are restricted to the TF the charting provides. eg 5 minute / 15 minute / 30 min / 1H / 4H / Daily / Weekly etc.
The MTF Stochastics actually covers these no matter which TF you look at for the Main chart.
The advantage of having them is in the interpretation and understanding the pattern.
For example - looking at the shots below, you can see times where the Stochs are completely chaotic.
There are also times when they are completely aligned.
What would you expect the chart to look like when the lines are chaotic ... and when they are all aligned?
Unfortunately IC can not handle a full-size screen shot so I can not put the chart in with the stochs. But I will attempt to cut a piece of the chart and place it underneath for some kind of comparison.
Failing that I could somehow attach the chart via a downloadable link ... but I have forgotten how to do that. (Be glad of assistance if someone knows).
This first image goes with the third image below
This second image goes with the bottom (fourth) image
 
Hmmm. Looks miserable doesn't it.
I'll keep trying to get these charts to present a bit more clearly.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1970
Registered: 05-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, October 27, 2007 - 06:29 pm: |
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Try this:
You can see in the segment below that the MTF_Stochs are tightly bound then become chaotic.
This was a section of the chart where the downtrend was extremely strong (4H chart). As the pair became range-bound the stochastics became chaotic again.
In this next shot, you can see that the stochs became organised again, as the pair rallied strongly.
If you could view the entire chart as I have it, the idea would be very clear.
Might seem odd, but it is worth persevering here. I have added 5% to my a/c each week for the past 4 weeks. I will try to draw an equity curve of a/c balance.
Most of my pips have come from trades I entered on 4H to 1 Day charts while trading with the weekly trend.
This method is averaging 400 pips/week.
While I don't know if that will continue, all I can do is follow the trades thrown up by this method. A great deal of restraint is needed, but that kind of discipline pays off big time when the parameters line up.
It's very early days yet, but I am certain any professional (position trader that is, not scalpers) will understand this setup.
Equity "curve" below:
There are other ways - probably simpler - to view MTF stochastics. It is also possible to set up 4 different time-frames in the one window - a continuing comparison in all 4 TF is then available.
My method (which was inspired elsewhere - not my work) just allows you to see when the stochs are grouping tightly - indicating a strong move. It is then I confidently load up the position.
No doubt exit will always be a matter of personal choice ... as will entry. It is not the purpose of this thread to discuss the specifics of that.
What the combination of Rainbow charts, stochastics, and multiple TF can do, is assist the trader to maintain discipline, knowing that the setup will come eventually, and when it does, it can be traded strongly and confidently.
There are about a dozen major currencies - I can find one weekly trend somewhere that is ripe to yield its pips.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1093
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 28, 2007 - 10:02 am: |
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