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     mrbrown66
Member
Username: mrbrown66
Post Number: 37
Registered: 08-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 10, 2006 - 05:31 pm: |  
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Archer your predictions on MMN seem to be currently unfolding. Closed at 32.5 cents after a strong day for most other resource stocks.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 167
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 14, 2006 - 07:29 pm: |
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It is never a good sign to have the Share Price drop out of an established channel: however MMN has made it back into the channel previously (see the chart below).
Recent MMN daily : Cant see MMN bouncing straight back to ~ 44c any time soon. Indicators dont look too flash and how often does a soufley rise twice??
Weekly Silver from 2001 The trend lines are just schematic ~ but check out the indicators and the distance from the SMA's. I would not be surprised if silver corrected to around $10.00 soon ~ got no idea what the trigger will be
mark
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1777
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 14, 2006 - 07:56 pm: |
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tryhay
Who knows?
SLV now has taken a staggering 65million ounces of silver away from the markets.
This tends to squeeze prices higher rather than lower.
As fo MMN, they are not too far from putting silver into the markets and reducing their cash burn.
It's moot to recall MMN wanting silver prices to be around US$9 before hitting full production.
At almost $15 there will be a quick repayment of debt and return to shareholders within 3 years.
Should silver creep as high as archer and I think, then we are likely to get dividends in 2008 as Macmin will be embarrassed by their cash position by then.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 169
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 14, 2006 - 08:40 pm: |
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Good points rederob: the fundamentals are actually driving the commodities prices during this supercycle. I have tried looking at the run up in prices during the 70's and 80's, but the selection on KITCO and Stockcharts is not very user friendly - but I have posted available charts below.
I have attached the 1985-2007 silver chart which I suggest shows that we are approaching almost ludicrous (speed) I mean silver prices, and for comparison the gold price (as best I can get it) from 1981 to 2006 ~ which is in agreement: light speed).
the 1985-2007 silver chart
The 1981 to 2006 Gold chart (for comparison):
The point I have tried to make previously is that the current chart direction does not seem to be sustainable (sorry if I sound like HC) ~ certainly atipical to the 40 or so years between the last peak/s and present ~ but I am happy to let time sort out the outcome ~ (which on the surface seems to be irrational exuberance).
To me it looks like we are approaching Disneyland ~ and I'm not sure I like all the animals and characters around here :-)
Mark
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 1513
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 17, 2006 - 04:48 pm: |
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MMN hit the buy zone and bounced well(;->
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1781
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 18, 2006 - 07:35 am: |
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archer
Looks like lightening will strike twice.
This dead cat has lost a few lives already, so needs to make a dash soon!
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karragarra
Member
Username: karragarra
Post Number: 123
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 18, 2006 - 01:58 pm: |
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Surely not the dreaded d-dead c-cat b-bounce!
I found Butler's comments relevant to the point and in regard to Ag and MMN I intend to follow some of Livermore's advice:
"The customers used to go into Old Turkey [a nickname, of course] and tell him what some friend of a friend had advised them to do in a certain stock. But whether the tip they had was to buy or sell, the old chap's answer was always the same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: 'What do you think I ought to do?'
Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, 'You know, it's a bull market!'
and also
"After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."
(both from Jesse Livermore)
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 1782
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 18, 2006 - 05:56 pm: |
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Karragarra
I will sit down and give that a moment.
Ok.
I will just sit down.
It is a bull market, isn't it?
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 506
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 18, 2006 - 06:49 pm: |
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Just when i decide to get in , it is time to be getting out.
I feel a plan coming on.
Hope not too many cuts 
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justice
Member
Username: justice
Post Number: 601
Registered: 01-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 18, 2006 - 07:26 pm: |
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Well this knucklehead bought in big today and didn't sell on close.
I hope the yanks don't decide to steal the ball and go home early again.
.Ice
... XXXX2 ... :-)
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karragarra
Member
Username: karragarra
Post Number: 124
Registered: 05-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, May 18, 2006 - 08:15 pm: |
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Rederob
I hope so. My investing at present is based on a belief in a long term bull market in silver in particular and commodities in general.
I have chosen to accept the arguments about silver espoused by Butler and the like, and believe the China/India story for commodities in the long term. I know this may be impacted by a possible US dollar crisis which could have unexpected shorter term outcomes.
The last few days on the ASX have seen significant volatility . I believe some of this was compounded by the earlier rapid increase of prices which quite normally sees consequent corrections. The actual correction was triggered by instability in the US which I believe has little long term meaning for the value of many of the Australian commodity companies. With the trigger having been pulled we've seen a not unusual shakeout of profit-takers, stop-loss addicts, nervous investors and their friends.
Anyway, I've made my bed. I expect to have to change a pillowcase occasionally and maybe even a few sheets, but I hope the bed will last a few years.
In regard to the effect on commodities of a US dollar crisis, I did enjoy Peter 'Schiff's approach where he argued that the Chinese economy would cope with a dollar crisis in exactly the same way that the US economy recovered from the difficulties of World War Two.
http://www.silverstrategies.com/story.aspx?local=1&id=3908
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rederob
Member
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