Archive through April 29, 2004

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archer

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Post Number: 138
Registered: 11-2002

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Friday, April 02, 2004 - 07:31 pm:

Okay now thanks to rederob we can see how easily achievable
a 40 cent valuation is for MMN
Now imagine this---Silver rises another 3 dollars from here
and Bingo the profit doubles-wow
Imagine silver rises another 6 dollars on top of that and
---hey-What thaaaaa--Profit has doubled again
So now we have MMN valued well north of a dollar with silver at 17 bucks and 17 bucks is far short of my target for silver
Now imagine its five years down the track and MMNs holding
in NGG has become far more valuable than its silver deposit
due to some excellent finds of copper and gold on just one
of its potentially huge new guinea prospects
Where does that value MMN
Dont be too hard on management Greatdane
They have just had to endure one of the worst bear markets
imaginable-a 20 year bear market in which silver lost
nearly 95% of its value
Hold on man and by the end of this bull you'll want to kiss
McNeil on the lips{;>

rederob

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Post Number: 27
Registered: 10-2002

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Friday, April 02, 2004 - 11:24 pm:

When I first posted above on 6 March silver had reached $7/oz.
A few hours ago it broke over $8.40 before dropping back under $8.30
A 20% increase in less than a month is somewhat bullish, although it hasn't translated into MMN's share price yet.
It's also usually a bit previous to think the rally can continue apace, as these types of bull markets must consolidate/retrace before the next upleg.
While a retrace at some point is inevitable, silver has some peculiarities that don't sit with gold.
First, it's generally "consumed" (ie used up) in most industrial applications, so does not reappear again on the surface of the earth.
Thus, when supply does not meet demand for many years, as has been the case for silver, you don't whip out a few million ounces from some central bank vault to settle the imbalance.
Secondly, from an industrial perspective, silver is generally "inelastic" in that its price is insignificant when compared to its purpose. In other words, you don't go looking for something cheaper to replace silver, you just keep buying more silver until its price becomes a real factor in the total equation.
Then, in the unreal world of futures markets we have a situation where we have sold more silver than exists.
As these situations begin to unwind the need to cover purchases will explode the silver price beyond Archer's seemingly optimistic MMN scenario.
I therefore believe consolidations will be fleetingly short, though retracements could be breathtakingly rapid and deep while the lucky profit takers milk a run.
However, as Richard Russell preaches, the real rewards in this market will remain with the buy and holds.
And the speculators are very likely to be caught short.

dollars

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Post Number: 78
Registered: 09-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, April 03, 2004 - 03:41 pm:

Hi

I am a holder of far too many of the options for comfort lol. Enjoy the commentary. NGG drilling underway earlier this month. The hardest part is just the waiting. Do people intend to trade these moves or buy and hold?

greatdane

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Post Number: 77
Registered: 12-2002

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Monday, April 05, 2004 - 09:55 pm:

Monday - 1559 [Dow Jones] Spot silver last at US$8.30/oz, up 17 cents since Comex close. Thin volume due to HK holiday adding to volatility, but decent buying interest from Japanese trading houses bolstering price, Tokyo trader says. Hit 16.5 year high at US$8.45/oz Friday; but while traders, analysts not ruling out further gains, all agree metal is extremely difficult to predict, could snap back quickly. Tokyo trader says physical demand simply not growing nearly as fast as price. Support indicated at US$7.80-US$7.95, but only certainty appears to be more volatility. (NSC)

Regards, GreatDane

archer

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Post Number: 139
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, April 06, 2004 - 12:14 pm:

Hi dollars
Im doing both
I have a long term holding of FPOs and options
and i also trade the options short term and move the profits into the FPOs which then go into the long term
holding
All the best
---Archer---

rederob

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Post Number: 33
Registered: 10-2002

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Thursday, April 08, 2004 - 07:26 pm:

With all silver's technicals showing bullish to extremely bullish sentiment, little wonder the stochastics have it overbought.
More importantly, silver is trading at decreasing volumes, leaving room for some scary dips.
That said, silver has actually done some "consolidation" over recent weeks, odd as it may seem, when its 9 month bull-run is viewed in isolation.
It was interesting to see gold rise a touch while silver fell earlier in the week, confirming the probability of more divergent moves in the future.

rederob

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Post Number: 35
Registered: 10-2002

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Sunday, April 18, 2004 - 09:18 am:

The "scary dip" happened!
COMEX silver (from peak to trough) fell $1.31 within the week.
A similar thing happened in April 1987, but during that month silver reached $9.13/oz after starting out at $6.25 (these are data from LME fix prices rather than intra-day.
Silver continues to trade well above its 100dma which gives cause for some more weakness.
However, there was strong buyer support in the $6.90s so we might be in for another startling uptick to $8 and over in the next month or so.

eblode

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Post Number: 49
Registered: 11-2002

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Monday, April 19, 2004 - 11:40 am:

My God! Here we are already in April and MMN dips to .18 a few minutes ago. Where do you guys get your optomism from??. Must come only from prayer cuz I don't see the shine in Silver yet. Or in Gold for that matter.

Eugenio

rederob

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Post Number: 36
Registered: 10-2002

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Monday, April 19, 2004 - 12:47 pm:

MMN first hit 18cents when silver traded at $5.30 per ounce (12 September 2003).
Silver is presently over $7/oz or around 30% higher and has already breached $8/oz.
On that reckoning MMN should be trading well above 20cents - the fact that it is not is simply a "buy" signal.
Eugenio, if you take a short term view you can prove any trend you like.
If you step back you will be overrun by the bulls.

eblode

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Post Number: 50
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, April 20, 2004 - 09:49 am:

What you say Rederob is perfectly logical. You know it and I know it. But does the market know it?? I'm holding GBG whose price is the same as when gold was $380.as well as MBG whose price is the same now as when tin was almost 25% lower. Do you believe the market will wake up to these "buys"?? and if so how long do you feel you must wait?? Friend of mine bought PBT at .52 two or three weeks ago, went on vacation,returns and sells at $1.10 yesterday. Here we are in the game and nothing but hope,hope,hope.
Cheers,
Eugenio

williamat

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Post Number: 218
Registered: 09-2002

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Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 11:43 am:

Hi Eugenio,
Would the drop in our $ have a bearing?. cheers, Bill.

The difference between intelligence and education is this- intelligence will make you a good living. Charles C Kettering.

rederob

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Post Number: 37
Registered: 10-2002

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Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 12:59 pm:

Sometimes a great buying opportunity escapes our attention because it's too fleeting.
Buying silver at present levels (or MMN as a proxy) makes a lot of sense to the "buy on dips" investors.
Precious metals got a double whammy overnight - higher USD values and prospect of nearer-term interest rate hike - to plunge their prices to current lows.
Far from being concerned, I see the moves as extremely positive for silver as it has outpaced itself for months.
The AUD decline also put silver near $9/oz at time of writing this, which is what Macmin used to base their decision to move into production.
Silver will continue to be volatile as it is thinly traded and has no other option while so little of the metal is available.
The question to ponder is if you think it will claw back over US$8/oz in the medium term, or continue to decline in price.
And while pondering that, wonder why the DOW fell so heavily at the same time as gold and silver.
This week marks a watershed on the DOW as its big ticket items report to the markets.
Early into the week things look crash hot!

eblode

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Post Number: 52
Registered: 11-2002

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Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 07:14 pm:

Rederob,
Your optimism is wonderful and frankly I do agree with you. Now let's get a few thousand other believers and we're on our way. By the way what is your opinion on TIN? Is it also in short supply as Silver. For that reason I got suckered into buying MBG at .05 when they recently had a 30 mil.vol day. Today it's .033 and I still can,t believe the market can react so violently in such a short period, especially when the price of Tin (and Silver) have been rising. What's your opinion. I'm staying with MBG as they are expanding their facilities as we speak.
Cheers
Eugenio
(all is not lost as I'm way up on MDM)

rederob

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Post Number: 38
Registered: 10-2002

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Wednesday, April 21, 2004 - 10:01 pm:

Eugenio, all I can say is hang on for the ride.
Metals across the board will continue to progressively rise throughout this year and beyond.
Tin is hard to gauge as it's the thinnest of the base metals trading on LME. In the case of Marlborough, I suspect they sell mostly into Malaysia Smelting Corp which has 30% of MBG's shares - so a captive market.
MBG's renounceable rights offer today looks a good deal. In your shoes I would add to current holdings as there is little prospect of tin being cheaper in 6 months time as there will be very little tin available on the open market.
Back to silver.
Today silver broke below its 100dma of $6.55/oz - the first time since last October when it was about $4.90/oz.
Last October it also broke through its 200dma, though not tough ask as it stood at $4.75.
Silver is $6.40 as I write - a fall of $2.00/oz in just a few weeks, but needs to lose another 65cents to break through its 200dma - possible???
Wall street needs to move up a few hundred points before week's end if the stuffing is to be (temporarily) knocked out of precious metals.
The thing is, the dollar is at recent record highs, which make it now more vulnerable to weakness.
That will re-trigger buying interest in commodities, and flow through into silver.
And of course, Eugenio, my optimism is really based on what's happening in China and India - I ignore America when I look at the really big picture.

rederob

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Post Number: 39
Registered: 10-2002

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