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     rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 20
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
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| | Thursday, March 25, 2004 - 08:38 am: | 
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The present geopolitical environment has pushed up gold's price to within cooeee of its January high.
Today trading at over 340euro, gold is eagerly sought in European markets as it hones in on a 350euro/oz target near term.
Encouragingly for Oz miners, gold sits nicely over AU$550/oz ($557 at morning opening). Despite this, few stock have reaped a similar percentage reward from the AUD gold price increase.
From a currency perspective, a prospective interest rate hike in Europe fell on the euro and pushed up the greenback. It may be some time before the euro reaches US$1.30 again. That said, the US economy is not so sound that the greenback cannot sink considerably before year's end. Massive personal and national debt have not yet taken its toll on American markets, and it's just a matter of time before the tide turns.
These factors contribute to a healthy future environment for gold.
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 29
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| | Saturday, April 03, 2004 - 08:52 am: |
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Overnight US non-farm payroll data added 308,000 jobs to the US economy and knocked the euro for six (down 2.3 eurocents).
Yet the euro gold price remains strong at 347eurodollars, while gold in AUD remains above $555.
In a week that took COMEX gold (at $333) to its highest price since August 1988 on Thursday and open interest at a dizzy number, it needed a prick (and I can't say Dubya was responsible this time) to burst the bubble on Friday.
The market buzz on gold is overwhelmingly positive despite the jobs data raining on its parade and we are likely to see gold consolidating in the $420+ vicinity.
Expect some downward revision of the jobs data by next month - a regular theme - and a slight rebound of the euro next week.
Although it appears gold is moving in a sizeable daily dollar range at the moment, contrast it to silver that moved last night in a 5% range ($7.93 - $8.31)
The maxim of precious metals moving in line with base metals at the broader level continues to hold true.
Given the positive US jobs data, we can expect this trend to hold for many months to come.
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 34
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
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| | Saturday, April 17, 2004 - 02:03 pm: |
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Interesting to see CRS and OXR in the list of weekly worst performers (ASX 200.
Perhaps not surprising given that USD gold prices tumbled sharply before climbing back to around $400/oz.
In AUD terms, gold at $537.50 still reaps good profits for OXR and CRS so share price movements short term are not an impact on these company's fortunes.
The real weakness in gold stems from its eurodollar price stumpling from the high 340's to 333.65 at yesterday's close.
Gold's prognosis is still healthy.
Remember that COMEX gold first closed above $400/oz on 1 December 2003 after many years in the wilderness.
It has closed below $400 on 18 days so far in 2004, with the trend suggesting a continuation of ever higher lows amid erratic and short-lived highs.
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 43
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
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| | Saturday, April 24, 2004 - 09:57 am: |
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US spot gold closed the week down on last week at $395, although up for last 2 days of the week.
Gold at $333.62eurodollars is unchanged over the week, and at AU$539.61 represents a slight increase.
Support at US$390 held up, and the trend suggests a consolidation at higher prices in near term with good buyer interest.
US dollar strength was the key driver of a lower gold price, and Friday night was supported by exceptionally strong durable goods orders - 5 times above forecast!
That said, the greenback's run is near an end the euro is likely to rebound slightly over coming weeks.
DOW overnight failed to build on Thursdays' great result, despite Microsoft posting good outcomes, and Corning doing likewise.
Although the US economy appears to be improving, the stock markets suggest cautious optimism rather than bullishness.
I consider the prognosis for gold to be very sound near term with late year prospects to be markedly better for its price.
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sabretoothed
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Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 185
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
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| | Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 10:00 am: |
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Closed on 393 last night. Gold starting to stir again. ASX gold index gold be close to support?
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 50
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| | Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 10:47 am: |
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sabretoothed
COMEX gold dipped to a low of $380.60 last Thursday (previously that low on 7 November 2003), and is now attracting some firm buying support.
With US interest rates now on hold at 1% for at least another month, gold should consolidate a little.
More interesting is weakness in US equities, with the DOW failing to rise with general economic improvement.
My prognosis is that an inflationary push is well underway in the US with energy costs in particular a thorn in their side.
Greenspan may be able to print money on demand, but he does not control the oil tap. Methinks the US economy is in for a very bumpy ride in months to come.
As a quick aside, the US commodities index has turned up this week, which is a proxy for industrial demand rebounding - copper leading the way. That said, US consumption of aluminium is draining their warehouses so watch closely how the big alumina producers move on the ASX in coming weeks.
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sabretoothed
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Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 188
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
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| | Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 12:36 pm: |
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Yes, but OIL may be reduced as Bush runs up to the election, Saudis may reduce the price, if Bush pays them enough :P
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 51
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| | Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 09:59 pm: |
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Interesting theory sabretoothed - but can't see how Dubya could "hide" billion$$$ oil for votes payments to the Saudi's.
Anyhow, oil now has the " US driving season" premium and the "terrorist sabotage/act" premium built into its price. If Asian oil demand keeps up it's hard to see less than US$30/bbl in the medium term. My pessimism in USD value actually puts the price over $40 into 2005, but that's just my hunch - no empirical evidence.
Back to gold briefly.
Nice consolidation with slight upside so far this week, with price of $393/oz testing the 200dma.
The probability is that USD highside was achieved last week, and euro is firming against it. Indeed, in eurodollar terms the price of gold has barely changed in a week.
With Asian markets largely offline till next week, and UK markets coming out of an early week slumber, trading is thinner than usual. My expectation is that gold will break $400 possibly late next week, with a continuing uptrend in theme for some months to come.
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sabretoothed
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Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 189
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
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| | Wednesday, May 05, 2004 - 10:05 pm: |
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I guess probably all these countries hate bush, thus they won't care if he loses the election.
USA is not in high oil demand season though, as winter is the peak period and they are approaching Summer which should reduce demand, unless they take their SUV tanks on holiday 
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 52
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| | Thursday, May 06, 2004 - 07:34 am: |
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GW Bush is seriously good news for gold. In the improbable event he wins another term we can look forward to 4 more years of positive gold action.
His war on terror maintains the "premium" on gold's safe haven status.
A spurious correlation shows that in recent times Democrat presidents are bad news for the gold price!
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 55
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| | Tuesday, May 11, 2004 - 08:30 pm: |
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The big dipper for gold last week was the eurogold price falling apart under a strengthening dollar.
To see what difference a day makes, kitco shows this for Monday 10th:
Remember that barely a month ago gold was nearing euro$350.
An interesting gold price trend is its present plateauing of 100dma's in key currencies and in AUD term.
Clearly it will need to break up or down, and in the immediate short term the maths dictate it be down.
Today's bounceback of gold is encouraging but we need more time to see how sustaining the move is.
Last week UBS downgraded by US$25 (to $422) the 2004 average price of gold.
Not an ominous portend at all as in 2005 UBS are forecasting gold to average $455 including an early year peak of $470.
With the average daily gold price dropping in April from $426 to $376 (or 13%) in about 6 weeks the goldbugs have surely been downtrodden, but not wholly crushed yet.
I keep watch on base metals as well, and I consider its index useful in determining sentiment - the index turned up last week.
I have not moved from my view that gold's best is to come in the 3rd quarter of this year when I think US equities will begin a significant downward spiral.
In the meantime gold's lustre may seem hazy to some.
But with consistently higher lows and higher highs gold's reputation is only tarnished by those who place too much emphasis on narrow and short term influences.
In closing, it's instructional to note that the AUD gold price remains above $540 ($543 at time of writing) and our local miners continue to do well for the most part.
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sabretoothed
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Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 212
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
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| | Wednesday, May 12, 2004 - 06:59 pm: |
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Gold 3.81 and rising, do we have a runner??????
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 56
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| | Wednesday, May 12, 2004 - 07:16 pm: |
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Punt for and even $400 and we have a bolter.
Sadly, I think the tea leaves suggest a few weeks away at best.
But I like your optimism, sabretoothed, and trust you can sway the world markets accordingly.
:p
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rederob
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Username: rederob
Post Number: 65
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| | Sunday, May 16, 2004 - 08:07 pm: |
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No real change to the AUD price of gold over the week - presently at AU$544.
The euro price is similarly close week on week - presently $317eurodollars.
How much further can the greenback strengthen?
Doubt if it has much more run it, and I think it lacks the strength to crush gold's inevitable retrace.
We are likely at the crossroad, as gold's overbought status has little left in it.
The above chart indicates we could see gold near US$500 on its next upleg if we extrapolate the gold price against the HUI.
What is evident is that the US economy is markedly different to a year ago, but the DOW's direction is currently running counter.
The golden bears' winter is nearing, if not already upon us.
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sabretoothed
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Username: sabretoothed
Post Number: 333
Registered: 03-2003Rating: N/A
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