Archive through June 25, 2004

Chart Forum » Forex » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through June 25, 2004

«« « Previous Next » »»

Author

Message

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 100
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 11:47 am:

I've found the aluminium charts ... is there any way to download the data?

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

Member

Post Number: 115
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 11:49 am:

hilarius
LME may have better site info.For example you can pick a date for aluminium prices - last 2 year's prices below:

Volume data is at:
http://www.lme.co.uk/dataprices_historical.asp
You can also get traded volumes - which is excellent for seeing how much is going through the warehouses rather than what is left over.
I am in archer's camp - this episode will be unnoticed in the long term charts.
As anyone who posts on sites knows, prognostications can bite the derriere, especially short term observations for those that trade daily.
My stance remains firm on commodities until empirical evidence suggests opposite, or even a change in the wind.
Silver now up 3cents today - we are on a roll - haha.

Subscribe to our FREE
trading newsletter

The weekly Trading Diary offers
free multiple time frame analysis of
major market indices, identifying key
support and resistance levels and
suitable trading strategies.

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 101
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 12:12 pm:

Thanks for the LME suggestion rederob

Do you think the following prevents the use of charts and calculations and opinions derived from their data in this forum :-

[Quote]
Historical data content of this website is © The London Metal Exchange Limited 2003. All rights reserved. You may not reproduce in any form, all, or any part of the historical data other than extracts which you may print or download to a local hard disk for your personal use only. You may not recopy any of the materials you have printed or downloaded nor give it or copy it to anyone else.

Historical data is LME price information on the previous day’s trading on the LME. The LME posts historical data on the website as a service to the industry and public, it is not posted for any type of commercial use.

Please note the interpretation of historical data requires special skill and knowledge of financial markets. The LME will not be liable for any delay, inaccuracy, error or omission of any kind in the historical data. In addition, the LME will not be liable for any losses arising from unauthorised access to or any other misuse of historical data.
[Unquote]

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

PS It would seem odd if opinions based on LME data could only be used in private conversations ... but that is what the above seems to suggest is their intent

I am looking for a source of data that does not attempt to restrict freedom of speech in public forums

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

Member

Post Number: 116
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 12:56 pm:

hilarius
If that is so then I offended with the earlier chart from LME.
This site has disclaimers that protect you from claims if others act solely on what you post.
LME would only be concerned about deliberate misuse of the data, or use for personal gain - they have bigger fish to friar.
Publish and be damned!

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 102
Registered: 04-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 01:40 pm:

rederob

It is very good of you to try to reassure me that I can use LME data here at the forum

Since we seem to be having a largely private conversation I will post a chart which I just created showing the smoothed percentage movement in metal stocks since the beginning of January

Aluminium seems to me more plentiful than some of the other metals which you rightly pointed out are declining quite rapidly

My thought is to try to establish an inverse correlation between stocks of metal and prices ... and also between metal prices and individual company price trends

Common sense suggests a relationship between low metal stocks and higher metal prices

I am trying to measure that statistic, but have more years of downloading to do. Also I realise that metal stocks and prices are symptoms of underlying events rather than causes, though presumably many traders from charts don't worry about the underlying fundamentals

Speaking of friars my brothers at the monastery will be delighted to know that as they never use statistics for personal gain they are exempt from prosecution by the LME

In the monastery where I live we have more to think about than mere sordid personal gain ...

Also I am sure all the IC members donate their profits to worthy causes and shun personal wealth

With Best Wishes

Hilarius stocks

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 103
Registered: 04-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 01:43 pm:

PS The above chart is not an LME chart ... but rather a private work of art, which is not for public viewing

If you are a mere money maker please avert your gaze

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

Member

Post Number: 117
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 02:18 pm:

hilarius
A work of art worth more than a thousand words.
Please tell what was the last date for your data (30 April assumed) as I suspect nickel would now join tin and copper at the bottom rhs.
It is self evident from the artwork that a drop in warehouse stocks of 60% in 4 months is significant for copper and tin.
Most illuminating is that few of the complexes have been replenished (except zinc) to any degree.
We must look forward to similar artworks in future.
As for the correlations/relationships you mention, don't be surprised if you are surprised.
My view is that much of the market is dumbed-down to factors that have incidental impacts to company stocks - the technical traders are ruling the roost as more and more "black boxes" govern trading.
Being somewhat contrarian, I ignore as much as possible and look for underlying reasons for stock prices/movements.
If you manage to finish your monastic masterpieces, next take a look at NTAs for some of the miners/producers.
That's when the penny will truly drop.

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 104
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 02:29 pm:

rederob

You are absolutely right ... 30th April

I've kicked a friar off potato peeling to find the data from May until now

I won't tell anyone that you attach significance to fundamentals

Your secret is safe with me

Hilarius (looking forward to studying NTA's)

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

eblode

Member

Post Number: 69
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 04:20 pm:

It's worth every penny to pay my annual IC fee just to hear you guys discussing these topics.
Eugenio

rederob

Member

Post Number: 118
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 07:28 pm:

Has the potato pealer (vegetarian campanologist?) returned with the data.
My day's work is now done and only one artwork to observe - little wonder the Sistine Chapel took so long!
US aluminium was resupplied today, but the daily volumes flowing through warehouses could see them emptied within a month. US aluminium premiums are solid which means demand is very strong and it is reported that producers are major buyers.
US copper supplies are depleting slightly faster than LME's.
On the LME front, nickel traders are concerned that stock levels are down to the lows of 2001. In that year levels fell below 8,000 tonnes.
I did not follow that market then so can make no comparison with now.
What is very different now, however, is having the US and Asia both running hot at the same time.
If it were just one or the other, then no big deal.
But China is now a mortal enemy of the US in terms of unit production costs.
Base metals are the life blood of a nation's production capacity - energy is the heart.
If supply is cut back the nation will fall ill.
The thing is, US cannot afford to increase unit costs if commodity prices rise as the competition from China is already too stiff.
So when commodity supplies deplete, who will be the highest bidder to keep the nation alive?
My bet is that it will be China: They will be outbidding the US using the US's own treasury bonds.
Is that not poetic?

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 105
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 08:07 pm:

rederob

Our itinerant campanologist has not yet returned from his wanderings in the laneways of London's financial centre

A mysterious SMS message says no data after April due to a stop work meeting at the LME

We look forward like you to his imminent return but suspect he may have begun dealing in vegetable futures on behalf of the brothers

Any leads on the whereabouts of the missing May and June stock data will be gratefully received

AWC seems to be retracing to put it mildly

Rome was not built in a day

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

hilarius

Member

Post Number: 106
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, June 10, 2004 - 08:09 pm:

LOL

pealer

got it !!!

Hilarius

I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

rederob

Member

Post Number: 119
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, June 11, 2004 - 10:35 am:

Each morning I go to lots of sites for the "latest".
Comsec is useful with its daily overviews:
http://www.research.comsec.com.au/CommResearch_Documents.aspx?MenuId=6&CategoryI d=8&TypeId=157
More interesting, though, is their forecast for metals complexes in 2005.
There is no benefit in disputing a forecast. It is made with judgement and some knowledge of future conditions, but never the future itself.
What is curious, however, is why some of Comsec's forecasts are lower for 2005 than 2003. I say this as industry leaders generally perceive shortages for base metals as continuing strongly into 2005.
This being the case, there is greater likelihood of next year's average prices being greater than this year's.
Chart history confirms that 2005/2006 are most likely to see peak prices reached for base metals.
Beyond that, the band wagoners will have climbed aboard to ward of further shortages and from 2007 things would start to decline.
Time frames are years rather than months as we are not so much talking about working to capacity, but increasing capacity through new facilities and infrastructure.
It is always insightful to read further into the underlying research reports.
With no disrespect to the research writers, I sometimes wonder how broadly they research their topics, or are given a "party line" to spin.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 121
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 15, 2004 - 06:13 pm: