Archive through July 09, 2004

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vermante

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Post Number: 145
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, April 29, 2004 - 11:20 am:

To be fair on Red Rob - All share market speculation carries risk . All we can do is set risk tolerance levels in case a trade does not work out .

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 45
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, April 29, 2004 - 11:39 am:

Vermante is right in that you should trade with rules that suit "you".
Splitting hairs, I prefer to invest rather than trade, as I am quite comfortable watching the damage, and then seeing it repaired (or not!).
If you believe in trends and patterns and cycles then please take a good look at:
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/AGBULLRUN.php
If the data there cannot convince you then best you invest elsewhere.
Silver's bull run is so short to date that in months to come people will laugh off this relapse - every sign pointed to silver overbought, overstretched and needing a reality check.
Well, we now have it!

vermante

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Post Number: 146
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, April 29, 2004 - 12:29 pm:

Rederob,

I agree with you that all the pundits are screaming buy resources due to increasing demand and supply shortages , however the technicals are currently not supportive of the fundamentals .Markets can turn on a dime. Is todays correction a one off , or is there more to come?.

Extract Macquarie

"Stocks sank in the US on Wednesday. Concerns about rising interest rates and heightened tensions in Iraq, along with worries about China's efforts to cool its red-hot economy, overshadowed investors' recent enthusiasm about strong corporate profits.

Shares of resource companies were the hardest hit, led by aluminum producer Alcoa Inc, on concerns that credit restrictions in China could slow its growth and curb its huge appetite for raw materials."

How would the credit restrictions in China , impact the global supply/demand ratio for resources ?

There are certainly some resource stocks that could be extremely attractive if the sell off keeps on for a couple more days.

As for Gold I would need Gold to head back over $U.S 400/ oz. prior to taking up any positions . Silver is a little bit harder to call , being so volatile , but it would need to clear $U.S 7.00 oz

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

Member

Post Number: 46
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, April 29, 2004 - 01:09 pm:

Vermante
I respect the markets, but do not obey them.
I have a buy on MMN at 12cents - if it comes in I will have 100k MMN at average about 15cents. All MMN silver is still in the ground and none will be out till early 2005.
There are no indicators that can tell me within a reasonable margin of error the probable price of silver at that time: I think it is likely to continue to rise, but may be wrong.
Perspective is also important.
Today's market is fuelled by fear - the strongest driver of direction and movements.
Yet world sentiment on the markets of late has been generally positive - so greed will quickly return.
Then there are exchange rates:
In AUD terms silver is slightly under $8/oz after an extraordinary bad run - I have not seen any charts over the past 40 years that show a more severe silver price correction.
MMN cash costs for produced silver will likely be under $6/oz. They would be running at a profit (albeit slight) even at today's disastrous prices.
At a global level, base metal demand has not yet waned - the falls are based on technical selling: Nickel stockpiles have perked up slightly over the last week, but copper demand continues to draw-down supplies.
Physical gold sales maintain its price at possibly higher levels than the "fear" factor would have us believe - in AUD terms gold at $533/oz at present is still almost $20 higher than its lows of earlier this year.
And a brief digression:
General Motors shining path was its sales chart-line of motor vehicles in China. This tells me that an increasing percentage of the population is becoming more affluent - blind freddy probably knew that.
My point is that Chinese demand is now becoming "organic" - it will need less and less from the US and elsewhere to maintain its impressive growth cycle.
Silver is short term dangerous, no doubt about it.
But I hold it to a long term "up and up".

midge

Member

Post Number: 267
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, April 29, 2004 - 08:36 pm:

rederob,

What timeframe are you looking at? (When do you intend to sell?)

What is your stop-loss, or haven't you got any?

Is it part of a diversified portfolio and, if so, what weight?

Cheers

MidGe

rederob

Member

Post Number: 47
Registered: 10-2002

Rating:
Votes: 1


Thursday, April 29, 2004 - 09:55 pm:

Midge
I adopted a rule of only buying a stock I was prepared to hold.
I don't usually have the time or opportunity to trade during business hours.
I think each stock would have its own timeframe for a "hold" depending on where it was in its cycle.
MMN, for example, is unlikely to realise its value for at least 2 more years. I am quite prepared to give it that time, and more if the trend continues to be favourable.
Stop loss?
Yes, don't buy.
My view is that a stop loss is for maintaining capital rather than maximising profits.
I prefer to average into a stock with 3-4 buys for something that is going OK.
If after 4 months the stock shows no promise and is out of market favour, I would probably sell it.
My portfolio is overweight metals, with gold stocks accounting for about 10% of all holdings.
I am invested in over 40 separate companies.
My largest single holding is Commonwealth Property (CPA), so I am actually quite conservative.
But the conservative stock look after themselves, prettymuch.
Metals are great to follow, and gold/silver have their own story lines.
More importantly, my interest in gold/silver is excited by the fact that demand outstrips supply and has done for many years.
And in the short-supply stakes, silver's story is chronic.
If classical economic theory means anything at all, it bodes well for the precious metals.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 49
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, May 01, 2004 - 10:46 am:

It's too early to declare the young silver bear dead.
His pulse is waning and prognosis for recovery is predicated on heart replacement - just a bull's roar away.
The story is told in more detail at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/hamilton043004.html
In simple terms, in a rising market, a correction to silver's 200dma represents a buy.
Hamilton's article uses the concept of "relative silver", where the silver price is measured from its 200dma. Whenever "rSilver" nears one or turns negative, a buy signal is triggered.
And it was midweek.
silver bounces from 200dma

With silver back over $6 at week's end the likelihood of reversal/consolidation is good.
But the market remains thin, and UK and Asian holidays next week will continue the theme of volatility.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 53
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2004 - 07:53 pm:

Pre-emting employment data is silly, so my comments are destined for the dustbin.
US employment data is forecast to show a rise of about 170,000 with a possible increase in factory employment - would be first time since 2000.
Assuming a good employment result, the greenback will perk up further and the euro continue its current demise.
Precious metals will sink deeper and goldbugs will shrink into their shells.
Is all lost?
The next big economic event (assuming the above result) will be the Fed increasing short term rates. That event will again pressure precious metals.
In the greater scheme of things, the "fundamental" implications on metals prices is interesting.
First, base metal demand in the US will rise considerably, drawing down warehouse stocks at a more startling rate than present (tin reserves are likely to disappear in July at present drawdown and copper before the year's end).
Silver, as an industrial metal particularly sensitive to US electronics sector growth, will gain solid buying support and its price is almost a dead certainty to be propelled above its April highs.
The other element I have alluded to elsewhere is CPI growth. Currently under 2%pa in the US, the signs are that this will at least double over the next year as energy prices are factored into all purchased and consumed goods.
Changing tack, Chinese markets are back in play next week.
While stated Chinese policy is that their economy needs to "cool", they have only issued guidelines to reduce borrowings.
Guess what, it will be business as usual in China for some time to come.
Chinese demand for raw materials will remain strong this year. Although they have silver supplies, I suspect they will still be buying on world markets and add to the demand equation for the remainder of 2004.
I'm hoping for my buy on MMN at 12cents to come in on Monday after silver gets hammered tonight.
Buy the dips...

nightstalker

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Post Number: 73
Registered: 04-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, May 08, 2004 - 12:15 am:

I'm holding MMN, bought, I might say, at a fair bit more than 12 cents, but I'm quite prepared to put them in the basket in the corner and just forget about them for the next couple of years. All my other holds and trades are closely monitored daily, but MMN is left slowly simmering (OK - currently going off the boil) on the back burner.

I see that they have started getting tenders and whatnot for the development of the mine - see today's news item under MMN's label.

As long as they stay on track, and start pulling the stuff out of the ground, then I think our shares may be worth quite a bit more in a year or two. Mind you, if they change their mind and elect just to sit on the stuff..... the thought doesn't bear consideration!

Best wishes,

NightStalker

rederob

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Post Number: 54
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, May 08, 2004 - 03:47 pm:

Nightstalker
I'm with you on MMN, and hopeful that my 12cent buy will get actioned on Monday.
Furthermore, I won't be surprised if MMN takes a further hit next week.
Silver prices are at the level they were 6 months ago and a test of $5.50 down to the 400dma of $523 cannot be discounted.
But to suggest precious metals are doomed and prone to ongoing bearish sentiment is premature.
If NYMEX oil breaks below US$35/bbl before end-May and below $30 by end-August, then I think pressure would really be on, but not just yet.
US jobs data overnight was impressive and world equity markets reacted immediately to a most likely US interest rate hike in June.
REMEMBER, this rate increase is now mostly "factored in".
I expected the DOW to recover next week and our eyes should be fixed on the extent it does.
When will silver "bottom"?
I think some time next week, but what other surprises are in store?
There has been an abundant confluence of negative sentiment pervading precious metals and it's difficult to imagine things could get worse - especially seeing silver's present demise is unprecedented in my lifetime.
Now to the reality check:
Has China's GDP slowed at all?
Has the world recently become a safer place?
Have the various American government deficits declined?
Has Greenspan stopped printing money?
Is the US economy trending down?
Are base metal inventories increasing?
Are energy prices decreasing?
NO!
Then we have bad news, and we have good news.
And I will keep adding metals stocks when the prices are right.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 72
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, May 20, 2004 - 02:05 pm:

Silver's bounce!

According to the moving averages 3 line indicator the market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.
I haver chosen the kindest comment from the technical analysis - other indicators suggest caution!
The fundamentals for silver have improved considerably and in tandem with a technical turnaround suggest recovery well in sight if not underway.
Chinese, Japanese and US industrial demand for silver is currently quite strong. Assuming demand in fabrication, jewelry and photography remains steady - data shows modest increase year on year to 2003 - then the uptrend should be assured.
2003 also marked the 15th consecutive year of demand exceeding supply, so the coiled spring on silver's price will unwind quickly when the market gets truly caught short.

archer

Member

Post Number: 161
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, May 20, 2004 - 04:22 pm:

Here is an article which in my opinion sums up best why
Gold,Silver and in fact all resources are going to be
in a bull market for at least a decade
If you understand the content dips like we have had
recently wont concern you
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/gerbino051804.html

kumbia

Member

Post Number: 99
Registered: 01-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, May 20, 2004 - 05:44 pm:

Just read the above article it is very very interesting....where it will end anyone may guess but there may well be a lot of tears in the next few years.

Great post thanks

kumbia

rederob

Member

Post Number: 73
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, May 22, 2004 - 11:35 am: