Archive through August 17, 2004

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rederob

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Post Number: 191
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Monday, July 12, 2004 - 11:05 pm:

Only $480 by September, Archer?
No bull!
What can you suggest for silver, or do we need another chart to doctor?

archer

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Post Number: 214
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Tuesday, July 13, 2004 - 08:48 am:

Silver will outperform gold as it usually does
Did you notice the trading in MMN the last 2 days
but mostly yesterday
Its a big change from the last run up in silver
where MMN would open strong then get sold off most
of the day
Silver is showing up on the radar of some big players
Silver above 10 when gold hits 480
All the best
---Archer---

rederob

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Post Number: 192
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Tuesday, July 13, 2004 - 10:03 am:

Archer
Yes
MMN has had a solid week, but still off its highs - much more to come.
I am pegging gold around $460-475 by years end and silver, I just don't know anymore - say $9??
Seems the market players are good at squashing any momentum from the precious metals - the dance rhythm goes; two steps forward and one step back, to the right side forward and to the side again, followed by one step forward then two steps back - repeat.
More seriously, the good news is that both silver and gold consolidated overnight in fickle trade.
If it can remain above $400 through the week the upward trend channel in above charts will be wholly respected and $450 is achievable in September.
As our athletes will be trying for the lustrous metal in Greece, I say "go for gold" (and silver ain't too bad either).
All the best

rederob

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Post Number: 209
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Thursday, July 22, 2004 - 12:21 pm:

We should thank mr Greenspan for creating another buying opportunity overnight.
POG falling just over one percent in USD terms, while the DOW and NASDAQ plunged is an interesting conundrum.
If the US economy is so strong that the greenback rises strongly, then why did equities collapse?
Simple - FX traders bought the Greenspan line (for what it was worth) but the big funds that have slowly been moving away from equities into cash did not.
Gold reacted well considering the market movement against the euro - and in AUD terms the impact was minimal.
Look for tonight's lead; an early move up will signify a quick swing towards $410/oz in coming weeks, whereas consolidation around $395 will show a "wait and see" attitude pervading the market till into September.
Had gold capitulated today I would have thought another retrace to $375 could be on the cards.
But it has firmed nicely suggesting that gold's uptrend is nicely intact.

rederob

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Post Number: 231
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Wednesday, July 28, 2004 - 12:01 pm:

I had to look back to archer's gold chart for consolation - $480 is near!
The party faithful probably need a motto so that we are sustained through the torrid times.
Let's hope the week ends better after this 6-week low point.
Was there good news tho?
Yes, Kalgoorlie is hosting the annual "Diggers" shindig so there is a wealth of info now avail from companies showcasing their wares.
A few of my goldies reported: CRS, DIO and KCN.
CRS's exploration results are excellent, but the gold finds will not translate into mined product in the next 12 months, so CRS is not likely to do much near term.
DIO is a true sleeper in the market. Truly undervalued at present price with massive upside - to be realised once a full quarters production figures become available near year's end.
Kingsgate is generating massive $$ returns being one of the world's lowest cash cost producers - markets just waiting for next dividend announcement before revaluing.
Lihir, which I do not hold, looks to have turned itself around.
However, reading its report carefully you will see that it achieved a margin of only $16/oz due to its negative hedge position: Great upside from mid 2005 when it gets its power plant operational and other costs under control.
Finally, despite POG sinking in USD terms, it's relatively unscathed at AU$553-555/oz at present.

rederob

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Post Number: 236
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Thursday, July 29, 2004 - 11:27 pm:

Pick a colour?

They were all the right coloured uptrend lines, but the rightest was euro gold blue.
Reason being that POG in euro terms in 2000 is the same price as today: But look at the underlying trend.
When the greenback goes into a tailspin the euro will break through 350eurodollars and push POG decisively beyond $500/oz.
I now sit alongside the crackpots that believe this will happen regardless of any intervening event over the next 2 years.
Moreover, the price trends in each of the above currencies is sedate (even backward for extended periods in several cases).
However, a capitulation of the greenback will rocket gold to prices that even goldbugs will have difficulty grappling with.
Short term POG volatility below $400 is of no real consequence. If POG was as weak as the knockers suggest, we should now be below US$350 and spiralling down - no threat of a major political event and no short supply of gold.
In perspective, today POG's 200dma of $398.50 was first achieved as a spot price in November last year, after many years in the wilderness. Go back 12 months and only crackpots were forecasting gold would break $400 before the year was out.
Sometimes we can suffer fools gladly.

perler59

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Post Number: 243
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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 09:31 am:

This was updated on 16th July.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm

justice

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Post Number: 273
Registered: 01-2003

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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 11:59 am:

So, the cracked pot at the end of the rainbow IS full of gold...
The little people will be very pleased.

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

rederob

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Post Number: 241
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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 08:21 pm:

Indeed
Justice..... and GOLD for all.

POG looks to be at or near present bottom in this cycle - seldom runs down for more than 2 weeks without a bounce.

Nullum magnum ingenium sine mixtura dimentia fuit.

justice

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Post Number: 277
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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 09:09 pm:

An appropriate Fib. retrace level to ponder.

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

keith_s

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Post Number: 3
Registered: 06-2004

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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 10:56 pm:

Do you think that the price of gold would go down until 7th August 2004 when the day of autumn begins in northern hemisphere.

k_s

rederob

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Post Number: 245
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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 11:15 pm:

Hmmmmm
An astrological/astronomical orientation on gold.
A novel approach.
But I never think that gold prices go down.
Thinking that way would be contrary.
It's just that gold prices have their own way of moving and despite my best and most positive thoughts, the price goes any which way.
Casting aside any thoughts, the probability of going down til 7 August is quite low as we are due to commence an upleg in POG.

keith_s

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Friday, July 30, 2004 - 11:31 pm:

The prediction was from an Asian financial newspaper. Anyway I just watch.

k_s

archer

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Post Number: 250
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Sunday, August 01, 2004 - 03:23 pm:

Well we had the washout i expected due to the COT report
Silver is showing excellent relative strength
Here is a seasonal chart for gold and as you can see its
approaching its strongest time of the year
gold

Heres the latest cot report and the commercial traders
have covered a lot of there short position
http://www.321gold.com/cot_gold.html
---Archer---

rederob

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Post Number: 260
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Friday, August 06, 2004 - 07:49 pm: