Archive through September 26, 2004

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vermante

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Post Number: 169
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Friday, August 20, 2004 - 12:04 pm:

Rederob,

Gold continues its upward move . Next barrier $410 .

The World Gold Council reported an 11% increase in the global demand for gold (including jewellery and retail investment) in the second quarter from the same period last year.(source -Macquarie). No mention of comparative production figures.

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 285
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Friday, August 20, 2004 - 12:41 pm:

vermante
Interesting to see POG up during non-COMEX sessions.
Some historical - and useful - production data is at:
http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/production.htm

More recent data is at WGC site:

http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html

Production data will be updated next Tuesday and be avail at Bloomberg.
The bottom line is an increasing production shortfall, compared to demand.
Now that the funds can see this, they may want to hedge their bets more favourably by increasing the proportion of gold they hold within their portfolios.
Coming at a time when the USD dollar is wilting slightly, and Asian physical demand is increasing, we are looking at a high probability of steady to higher POG.

vermante

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Friday, August 20, 2004 - 01:50 pm:

Rederob,

Thanks for the links - Looks like Q1,Q2 , met with production shortfalls. Augers well for Gold as it approachers its strongest period.

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Saturday, August 21, 2004 - 09:07 am:

With POG moving through a $22 range in six days we should get some consolidation next week, or a slight pullback.

Decisively taking out resistance at $410 has clearly interested funds again.
This is happening as data shows Asian physical demand to have risen in excess of 10% in the first half of this year despite record prices.
I think the biggest plus this week is counter intuitive: The DOW racked up its biggest weekly percentage gain (2.9%) since May 2003.
On what news was the weekly rise predicated?
On Google's listing on the Big Board and on high oil prices - more simply, on greed and fear - not on any economic data of note.
To me it signals a fundamental softness in the US investment psyche.
So when some hard hitting economic data comes along, look forward to pronounced and enduring market moves on the bear side of the ledger.

In other currency terms POG had an outstanding week, closing over AU$570 and euro$335.
By the way, gold's rush correlates nicely to OZ athletes achievements at Athens - more to come, eh.

archer

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Post Number: 265
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Saturday, August 21, 2004 - 10:13 am:

Central banks buying gold???
----------------------------

Argentina ensures gold hits record
By Edmund Conway (Filed: 20/08/2004)

Gold prices hit a four-month high yesterday, after it emerged that Argentina bought 42 tonnes of bullion in the first half of the year in an effort to repair its shattered economy.

The precious metal rose $4.50 to $407 an ounce for the first time since prices dropped in mid-April. It was lifted higher by the weaker dollar, which fell almost a cent against the pound, leaving sterling worth $1.8323.

A report from the World Gold Council (WGC) - the organisation that promotes the metal - revealed that Argentina bought a significant amount of gold between January and June in order to lock its wealth into stable investments rather than bonds or equities.

Analysts said other countries may start buying gold again, reversing the worldwide central bank sell-off of the past decade. Almost all western countries have been selling their reserves in exchange for investments with a higher yield.

In Britain, the Treasury earlier this year ruled itself out of selling any more of its gold reserves for the foreseeable future, having sold off half of its store between 1999 and 2001.

Chancellor Gordon Brown sold 395 tonnes at an average price of $275 an ounce, making about £2.3 billion. Economists calculate that he would have made almost £3 billion had he waited until today.

Since Mr Brown's decision, taken at a time when gold was out of favour with investors, the metal has enjoyed a renaissance, with analysts praising its uses as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation.

The WGC said yesterday that the central bank sell-off slowed in the second quarter, although Switzerland sold 68 tonnes and Portugal 35 tonnes.

It said that consumer demand for the precious metal had risen during the year, although investor enthusiasm had dipped as prices appeared to level off.

James E Burton, chief executive of the WGC, said: "It is important that we are not complacent. The rise in demand for jewellery and retail investment in key markets has been aided by strong economic growth and relative absence of price volatility, but gold's battle for share of wallets remains."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2004/08/20/cngold20.xml&m enuId=242&sSheet=/money/2004/08/20/ixcity.html

vermante

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Post Number: 172
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Wednesday, September 01, 2004 - 08:09 am:

REDEROB,

Gold continues to move upwards- confirming the technical breakout at $400.Fiscal and Trade deficits , M3 concerns and terrorist activity continue to weigh on the U.S. Dollar.The next target for Gold would be $U.S 430.

For any one interested in taking a position in Gold stocks, Resolute Mining (RSG) in their Diggers and Dealers presentation have a graphic display of -
a)The top 20 odd Gold Producing companies
b)The top 20 odd Gold Companies with Gold Reserves

Cheers

rederob

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Wednesday, September 01, 2004 - 08:30 am:

Gold looking good vermante:

No real signs of any recent weakness.
Barely below $405/oz in the past fortnight.
Sadly SGW has gone into administration - but that in itself is good for gold, possibly taking up to 0.5 million ounces out of the market each year.

keith_s

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Post Number: 8
Registered: 06-2004

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Wednesday, September 01, 2004 - 08:47 pm:

Do you think that the POG would move up until 7 Sep 2004?

Cheers

K_s

vermante

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Post Number: 173
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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 09:47 am:

Rederob,

Re-SGW - Could be a fire sale for its assets - Should be interesting to see which company picks up its gold assets.

Buying below the 30 week moving average , certainly comes with enhanced risk . Sole reason why I did not commit to SGW, despite what appeared to be bargain basement prices

Note- Not many Gold companies appear to reporting budget or above budget production figures.

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 302
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Thursday, September 02, 2004 - 11:30 am:

keith
Short-term time frames are too hard with gold.
Most likely there will be little change over the next week.

vermante
Steady results mostly as AUD price of gold was subdued.
I think 2004/5 results will be considerably better, especially if POG takes its traditional trip north over next 6 months - our dollar has slid such that POG is presently AU$580/oz and continuing to climb.
All the best

rederob

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Friday, September 03, 2004 - 06:50 pm:

Irrespective of non-farm pay roll figures out from the US tonight, gold has held up very well since breaking over $400 in mid-August.
Weak US employment data most likely will propel gold over $410 again, with the opposite happening if more jobs are created than expected.
However, any negative sentiment will be counteracted by a Labour Day long weekend and traders are not likely to want to be too short with geopolitical tensions as they presently are.
Silver has hardly hiccupped in recent weeks and is likely to move sharply up with gold, if that is tonight's direction, or otherwise hold its ground.
Consolidation is heartening for the precious metals adherents - the consensus on bullishness is compounding.

rederob

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Thursday, September 09, 2004 - 06:11 pm:

Greenspan spoke and gold climbed!
What a turnup.
At worst gold might dip near term to as low as $385 as Asian physical demand should intervene on dips.
However, with the DOW relatively weak, and volumes continuing to thin, another gold rally is not far off.

goldbug

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Post Number: 60
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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 12:01 pm:

The $US has weakened this morning against the Euro by the tune of 1/2 a cent. This would normally send the POG upwards....but guess what...its frozen in its tracks..just below the $400...i suspect there are some very large short positions just above this key level. ....any thoughts??

GB

rederob

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Friday, September 10, 2004 - 12:43 pm:

goldbug
The cue comes from US POG, which has been flat.
Observing over several years suggests that very few people know what the impact of a low AUD would be on OZ gold shares.
In AUD terms POG has centred around $580 over the past fortnight, which is about AU$40/oz more than the average POG this year till August. That's why largely unhedged producers (definitely not LHG) will be travelling sweetly for the moment regardless of market prices.
The recent pullback to below US$400 seems to be good news in that the cycle of higher lows has built nicely over the past 6 months.
While I have no doubt that gold will continue to climb, it is fair to say that US equities have been quite robust and Greenspan's spin on the US economy will stretch out POG's recovery in these traditional heady days for metals.

keith_s

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