Archive through September 22, 2004

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rederob

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Post Number: 185
Registered: 10-2002

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Friday, July 09, 2004 - 07:59 am:

josbarr
Thinner markets are prone to volatility.
The past few months "consolidation" could be put down to a waiting game on interest rates while funds stayed out of metals markets across the board.
The upward shift in momentum was clearly apparent and it just needed a prod - such as the threat of El Qaeda disrupting US elections - for a return of funds.
Traders have consistently bought the dips and kept the market tidy, knowing full well that an upleg was just around the corner.
Given te 32cent or 5.25% rise overnight, the spotlight has returned for a while.
There is not much history for the TA players to go on in the present price range, so don't be surprised if $7 is taken out early in August. Although it's hard to see that point reached without a midway pause from present levels.

rederob

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Post Number: 187
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Saturday, July 10, 2004 - 09:51 am:

Resistance taken out decisively during the week with next upside target at $6.60:

Macmin should firm during next week, with short term target price of 18cents - just needs to hold onto the week's gains.

rederob

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Post Number: 199
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Friday, July 16, 2004 - 08:00 am:

With a decisive push over $6.50 silver now eyes gap filling: First target is mid-April $6.89 price:

Having been a steady week for the precious metals there is a good that tonight could see another bounce leading into the weekend.

rederob

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Post Number: 203
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 09:46 am:

With the price of silver rising some 15% over the fortnight we would usually assume a slightly higher rise in pure equities that can leverage such gains.
Not so in the case on Macmin, which actually fell in price while silver rose!!

In a separate thread on OXR I discussed with dunlop why I considered "value" differently from the market consensus, which is simply the price of the stock on the day.
For Macmin to decline in price we would need to find some negative sentiment to support the move.
Well, 100k shares were issued to employees during the week, diluting total holdings by one-threethousandth.
Meanwhile silver resources were upgraded by 25% and pre-development work on the Twin Hills silver mine commenced.
These two items would have normally excited the markets but, alas, nobody was watching!
On top of this, MMN's interest in Crater Mountain gold exploration got a filip with exploration to commence after the PNG government granted a further 751km2 on top the existing 44km2 to explore.
Although MMN is not a producer and will burn through cash as it gets its silver mine up and running, the fundamentals of the stock improved markedly over the week.
For the market to ignore this suggests to me that it simply is not on the radar, which is fine for those again looking at a precious metal equity to bag.

dollars

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Post Number: 89
Registered: 09-2002

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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 10:36 am:

Hi Rederob

Do you know any details regarding the MMNOA's I believe aprox 80 million, not sure of the identity of major holders.
But no doubt the directors could do with the capital if they are exercised at $0.12 in September 05

cheers

$

rederob

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Post Number: 204
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Saturday, July 17, 2004 - 12:06 pm:

dollars
90.4m options in total including 8m non-transferrable employee/directors options.
If MMN needs to crank up its mine with extra $$$ then I suspect they will need to issue more shares (perhaps a rights issue) rather than wait the options.
With mine-site pre-development underway they could need that cash injection before this Xmas, though they have debt and hedge options to consider first.

archer

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Post Number: 227
Registered: 11-2002

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Sunday, July 18, 2004 - 03:41 pm:

Hi rederob
I,ve been a little concerned by the divergence as well
Also been noticing how the XAU + HUI dont seem to interested in the last few weeks rise in the price of
gold
http://www.321gold.com/cot_gold.html
http://www.321gold.com/cot_silver.html
And by the look of the latest cot report we might have another washout coming
I was wondering how MMN was going to fill the recent gaps
I,ll be doubling my position in MMN if and when they are
filled

rederob

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Post Number: 205
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Sunday, July 18, 2004 - 06:02 pm:

Always hard to tell if the XAU and HUI are significant for the traders as the indexes reflect a wide range of stocks.
My take on the readings is that they are due a bounce for the equities to factor in the recent upside to the precious metals themselves.
Regardless, the twin readings - gold stable over $400 and silver over $6.50 - are bullish given this price action respects their long term channels northward.
If it turns out that the DOW has moved decisively down as early indications suggest, I find it hard to conceive that gold and silver would not benefit due to their long-term inverse relationship.
The spectre of US inflation seems to be at bay through recent CPI data that I reckon to be a touch dubious. Anecdotal evidence is that inflation is much more severe than the data shows.
I do not share the view that higher fed rates (to counter inflation) will harm gold.
Instead, I suspect that once inflation takes a hold the funds will move decisively out of equities and into gold/cash to preserve capital.
As in the previous few years, gold's big upleg should commence August/September and sustain itself into January - propped up by typically strong physical buying from Asia, including India's festival season.
So long as gold's higher lows remain intact, I feel safe from $350's that some market commentators (not generally those that specialise in gold) continue to forecast.

rederob

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Post Number: 212
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Thursday, July 22, 2004 - 10:41 pm:

While the strong US dollar steals silver's path to happiness this week, be consoled by its much needed breather.
Mr Greenspan will, in years to come, be lauded by precious metals followers for making them wealthy in keeping with their dreams.
Not only does he regularly provide us with great buying opportunities, his priming of the US economy (via massive monetary supply) will continue to fuel the new bull market for silver (and gold).
For some light reading on why silver cannot really take a price-dive, try:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/nmaund072004.html
It's a bit repetitive, but gives some clear geology, geography and production lessons to the novice.
Note also the reports reference to BHP's Cannington deposit - a real sleeper just a stone's throw from the Isa.

rederob

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Post Number: 213
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Thursday, July 22, 2004 - 11:11 pm:

I had actually started to write about Macmin in above thread but was sidetracked - rather decisively as it turns out.
Anyhow, apart from the fact that Macmin is again at best buying prices in a rising market, it also trades in bigger volumes than Lihir gold................ on the Frankfurt exchange.
The bigger surprise was that Kingsgate had pride of place in the precious metals equities stakes: I bought into Kingsgate in the hope that when silver is $500/oz I will be - like hilarius - at retreat on some god forsaken planet.
Finally, a quote for the single mined-ed:
Assiduus usus uni rei deditus et ingenium et artem saepe vincit.

rederob

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Post Number: 219
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Saturday, July 24, 2004 - 12:04 pm:

Macmin should follow silver down on Monday - anticipate 13cents:

In what was a bad week for metals of every sort, the glimmer of hope was that silver, at $6.32, closed above resistance at $6.25 after bouncing off it intraday.

It may be that the greenback basks another day in this week's glory, but by next weeks' end I anticipate silver's next cycle upwards to continue well into August.

justice

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Post Number: 264
Registered: 01-2003

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Sunday, July 25, 2004 - 01:23 pm:

For gold - it's a bit like watching a trapeze artiste.

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

rederob

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Post Number: 256
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Tuesday, August 03, 2004 - 07:42 pm:

DOW technicals suggest another week or two upwards and/or sideways movement before rejoining its downtrend. This should suppress precious metals short term.
Silver is presently more robust than gold, holding its upwards course while gold stagnates:

The fundamental drivers of silver remain unchanged and industrial demand will keep it moving nicely along.
The hype around digital photography has lost its gloss as a reason for dumping silver as more and more investors become aware that its impact is minimal on silver supplies.
And for those that finding waiting for silver's rise a bit like watching paint dry:
Brevis ipsa vita est sed malis fit longior.

rederob

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Post Number: 264
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Saturday, August 07, 2004 - 08:26 pm:

Post and be damned by the market!
Silver is off again IMHO and will crack through $7.00 next week.

With the DOW buckling under the weight of dud jobs numbers and the NASDAQ falling as fast Mike Tyson, our free trade colleagues in the States need true safe havens for their money.
Bonds are going down the gurgler and the greenback is about to capitulate to the stodgy euro.
Inflationary undercurrents are tearing at Greenspan's script for a managed economy, making an interest rate rise most probable when the FOMC next meets.
Neither Bush nor Greenspan can create oil from a photocopier so the likelihood of a tightening economy is setting a perfect stage for precious metals to make their annual repeat performance.
Hi yo silver.... away.

nightstalker

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Post Number: 394
Registered: 04-2004

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