Archive through December 02, 2004

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squiresk

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Post Number: 149
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 04:14 pm:

POG - $460
POS - $8.0
POO - $52.00 ??

AUD/USD 82c ??

Kai.

"The combination of overconfidence and optimism is a potent brew, which causes people to overestimate their knowledge, underestimate risks and exaggerate their ability to control events.

It also leaves them vulnerable to statistical suprises."

Aspects of Investor Psychology - Daniel Kahnemann.

"Vah! Denuone Latine loquebar? Me ineptum. Interdum modo elebitur"

rederob

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Post Number: 488
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 06:14 pm:

Seems a few extra fields can be added to accommodate the more daring and wily forecasters amongst us:

email me your additions or post to thread if you wish

fox_terrier

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Post Number: 285
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 06:46 pm:

Hi guys,

POG 465
POS 8.10

Cheers
FT

rederob

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Post Number: 489
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 07:02 pm:

Updated - alpha order of poster

justice

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Post Number: 317
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 08:56 pm:

rederob,
the 78 I quoted - that's for the USD Index fund
Stockcharts.com code USD

for AUD/USD .8195
xao 3975

yours is 0.797?

Cheers.

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

squiresk

Member

Post Number: 150
Registered: 03-2003

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 09:06 pm:

I think someone has been drinking tonight :-)

Mine are a bit off too.

k.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 490
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 09:48 pm:

Well, what can one expect for free - lol.
bandicoot, you are to date the most bullish and if you are "winner" I promise to send you something (usually get at least two of a few things over Xmas).
squiresk, you are POG baby bear, so far.
I note WTIC is so far only tipped in the$50's - but nobody bearish.
Maybe a column for the DOW for a reality check?

whitesamurai

Member

Post Number: 1
Registered: 11-2004

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Votes: 0


Sunday, November 28, 2004 - 12:01 am:

Howdy folks,

You're all very bullish with your tips. Despite being a PM freak with physical to prove it, I reckon Shrub and Greensperm will pull one last rabbit out of the hat to satisfy the nervous holders of US treasury bonds. I'm going contrarian and tipping a correction before the next leg up (which might be the mother of all moonshoots).

POG $434
POS $6.84 (Ouch, but we can buy more ;-)
WTIC $45
AUD $0.78
XAO 3850

And if I'm wrong, then I'll be the happiest man in the world. If I'm right I'll probably get one of Rederob's surplus handkerchiefs to cry into.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 493
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Monday, November 29, 2004 - 07:40 am:

Latest updates - with whitesamurai proving that bears are lost in the forest.

greatdane

Member

Post Number: 161
Registered: 12-2002

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Votes: 0


Monday, November 29, 2004 - 06:41 pm:

"Gold bugs and US dollar bears must be pinching themselves now that even Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has stood up in support of their arguments. With only a few more weeks to go before we say goodbye to the current calendar year, economists and financial experts have started to look at their assumptions for 2005 and beyond, and they have been confronted by the fact that the US economy appears to be in a better shape than the majority of them thought possible.

At the same time, however, the country’s longer term problems have again floated to the surface, leading to the unusual divergence between a Fed that is now seen as likely raising interest rates at a faster pace than previously thought and a US dollar in rapid decline."

Full article available from aireview.com
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=6&id=997

(Message edited by greatdane on November 29, 2004)

Regards, GreatDane

suemac

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Post Number: 208
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Monday, November 29, 2004 - 11:24 pm:

OK gentlemen, looks like I'll have to fly the flag for the fairer sex. As they say, in for a penny, in for a pound.

Gold $480
Silver $8.68
XAO 3979.80

Thanks

Susan

rederob

Member

Post Number: 494
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 07:16 am:

suemac, thanks for looking after the "fairer sex" - wish I knew what that meant!
Seeing that there are no official rules to this exercise I thought that I would add an extra level of leniency:
While all POG/POS forecasts need to be posted or emailed by midnight tonight, you can have until midnight this Friday to add forecasts to any of the remaining fields - I note that some folk don't follow all the prices, exchange rates or indexes, but reckoned that was no impediment to a good forecast.

archer

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Post Number: 388
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 08:40 am:

pog-445
pos-7.40
wtic-44.25
aud-76.25
xao-4010
Cheers rederob
---Archer---

rederob

Member

Post Number: 496
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 09:23 am:

archer - bearish on commodities and bullish on Allords - very interesting!!!
Was surprised at the lack of action on gold last night, tho silver was strong - again, I am correlating POS on copper prices which are due to break all records before year's end.
Will post the "forecasting" table tomorrow

lightsaber

Member

Post Number: 38
Registered: 08-2004

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 07:25 pm:

With the aussie dollar fledgeling to around 77c, now could be a good time to buy US POG, if the aussie dollar keeps dropping..

Has the dollar ran its course and now its going to drop back? any thoughts...

I've done a little spreadsheet up that calculates the overall profit of buying and selling US gold taking into account currency conversion at time of buy and time of sell. If anyone wants a copy PM me.

The formula is (and if this is wrong please explain why as i've tested it thorougly):

(POG Sale price * quantity) * ($AUD (at time of buy) - $AUD (at time of sale)) + ((gold sell price - gold buy price) * Quantity bought)

This seems to work correctly and takes into account if POG doenst move in price, but the currency conversion does.