Archive through December 09, 2004

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vermante

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Post Number: 190
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 09:10 am:

rederob,

Thanks for that , I was looking for a historic precedence. Perhaps there is'nt any. ?

The movement in the U.S dollar is tied to interest rates , and POG to the U.S. Dollar. A rise in interest rates moves the dollar up and hence the POG down due to the inverse correlation.With the improving U.S economy and interest rates tipped to rise , will the dollar strengthen ? failure to do so , could see POG explode!!

Cheers

Vermante

archer

Member

Post Number: 390
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 09:42 am:

Vermante
In the 70s gold bull gold went to 800 while interest
rates went well into double figures
Interest rates were cranked up by Volcker to stem
inflation
The coming inflation is what the gold rise is anticipating
---Archer---

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rederob

Member

Post Number: 503
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 11:00 am:

have to agree with you archer
interest rate rises in present climate will be good for gold
can't see any tie between interest rates and USD for present
USD dipping due to US debt crisis and global view that USD value must deflate
therefore POG movements could turn on a range of variables
best thing is that funds are seeing value in gold
so physical demand will prop up POG near term, irrespective of other factors
medium term looking good
longer term (2006+) looking stronger

vermante

Member

Post Number: 191
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 11:32 am:

Archer ,

Thanks ,I believe inflation was a contributing factor at the time. Shall check out the dollar movement during that period.

How serious is the current inflation situation , and how bad is it going to get ? Can the Fed control it ?Looking to history for some guidance

Cheers

Vermante

goldbug

Member

Post Number: 71
Registered: 02-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 07:36 am:

I link a few of you out there may find to your liking..

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-12/02/content_396746.htm

whatever short term correction in the POG....as I have said here before, there is and has been a long list of strong fundamentals that support a much higher POG going forward. China's insatiable appetite being one of many.

and yes! there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow....

Regards

GB

vermante

Member

Post Number: 192
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 09:23 am:

Attached is some historical data on Gold during its last bull runs

Some common factors - :

U.S - Inflation was running well above 5%,

In the bull gold run between Dec 1972 and August 1974 , inflation moved From 5.5%- to 14.5% . Gold moved from $63-$156 a gain of 145 % , Whilst the dow slipped from 1027 to 752 , a loss of 27%

In the bull gold run between Mar 1977 and Jan 1980 , inflation moved From 6.%- to 12.9% . Gold moved from $146-$737 a gain of 405 % , Whilst the dow slipped from 965 to 866 , a loss of 10%

.

Gold may well have its day , But I dont believe it will accelerate until the U.S inflation rate moves above 5% and the Dow starts to falter.

If POG moves upwards contrary to the above elements, then I believe there has been a paradigmatic shift in the value of Gold

Cheers

Vermante

gold -historic.xls (14.3 k)

rederob

Member

Post Number: 504
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 11:34 am:

watch out everyone
we go go from goldbugs to economists if we aren't careful
there is a high correlation between the perceived status of economists and politicians!
what is interesting from Colin's observation is that average annual money supply growth is trending down, while inflation is trending up - thus the disparity increases
to me the greater concern is if money supply and inflation in the US trend concurrently upwards as it is more indicative of a deflationary environment
in such an environment it is possible for POG to also rise, with the DOW
until the US is in control of its deficits, POG will continue its climb - I think we are talking years
goldbugs have little to fear

whitesamurai

Member

Post Number: 3
Registered: 11-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 03:12 pm:

It is very tempting to do the all nighter tonight to see which way gold will move. For those goldies amongst us in Australia it is always an important night as Monday's market action is influenced significantly. I'm still sticking with the short-term correction and am backing the spooks down. When it's all over we will see how the US will fall.

Did any of you ever read the posts by a guy called Hypertiger on Fool? Man, that guy had some serious views on this situation. He got his timing a little wrong but I've seen little over the past two years to contradict his assertion that the money supply problem would take down the US.

Exciting times ahead. Rob, still love ya TA matey.

archer

Member

Post Number: 395
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 08:48 pm:

good greif gold to minus 12bucks

rederob

Member

Post Number: 505
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 09:30 pm:

gawd archer
i rushed to the charts to see what was down!!!!
a dose of anti-viagra
gold flaccid, never
whitesamurai will keep you honest as he is going googlyeyed tonight in case "something happens"
certainly, greenback has got to bounce back, but how much and when?
with earnings, employment, unemployment, and ISM data out tonight anything can happen as the numbers show

justice

Member

Post Number: 323
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 09:10 pm:

Archer,
The bid price is 495.50 currently.
Kitco are pulling your leg I suspect. i.e. their server is.

Cheers.Ice

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

whitesamurai

Member

Post Number: 4
Registered: 11-2004

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Votes: 0


Saturday, December 04, 2004 - 08:56 am:

I saw what Archer did and Justice is right when he says it was probably a server problem. Gold got its dose of viagra partly thanks to explosions in Madrid and a disappointing jobs growth number in the US. The FED is still on track to raise rates on Dec 14 and Japan may weigh in on the currency markets with some dollar supporting strategies (adding to their massive pile of bad-debt imo). We are now on the dark side of the moon until Monday night (for those of us in Oz).

whitesamurai

Member

Post Number: 5
Registered: 11-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 03:57 pm:

Found some classic Hypertiger stuff....

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5781&pid=329987&st=0&#ent ry329987

I wish he would come back.

rederob

Member

Post Number: 507
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, December 04, 2004 - 09:41 am:

seeing we have degenerated to economic commentary and justice unjustifiable gold chart - which worked well contrariwise - we could be at some currency crossroads
Japan yen might want to retain parity with the greenback, but what sense does it make to do so?
why would BOJ want to prop up the dollar and knowingly buy into a debased currency when its money could better be spent elsewhere?
as whit