Archive through January 26, 2005

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fox_terrier

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Post Number: 291
Registered: 10-2003

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Thursday, December 09, 2004 - 12:19 pm:

Hi rederob,

Couldn't agree more. At the chance of appearing smart with hindsight i was going to post the following last night but time got away from me and then bed was calling.

I believe the smart(short term money) always leads the action (don't need to be Einstein to figure that out). That's why i have been watching my gold index to see when the US dollar would bounce. We all know nothing goes up or down forever. The following charts told me this correction in $US and POG was close.

I am still in HIG as a long termer. I could have sold at 0.60 and rebought today but i am a long termer not up with the quick in and out scenario. I hold thru the corrections (still grappling with adding to my position during corrections) if they are just that, corrections.I do everything off weekly charts.

I believe 430 will hold but as always time will tell.

Cheers
FT

fox_terrier

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Post Number: 292
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:00 am:

Hi guys,

Check out "Waaaay too many dollar bears" by Chip Hanlon on the Safehaven website.

As i stated in my previous post it was obvious a correction was coming, what is not obvious is the magnitude and length.

As chip states everyone is currently bearish on the dollar but there is strong support at 80 on the $US index which is where it is at present.

FA always lags TA and it is only now after the dollar has been falling for 3 years that everyone realises it had to drop because of fundamentals. As he states when everyone is bearish supply dries up and demand has it easy.

Think about it: if you're bearish on an asset, you're not going to hold it, are you? Once everyone is bearish, it means that the selling of that asset has already occurred, that there are no people left on the sidelines to push that holding lower. The inverse is true at tops.

Short of some calamitous occurrence we are in for a meaningful correction over an extended period. What does extended mean? keep an eye on the charts.

I have always been something of a contrarian which has caught me out at times because i could not believe how long greed can extend a buying frenzy.

However i now am confused as it is very hard to see where the majority view is. It is all very well to say because something is headlined in ???/ that is the popular view and well it may be. However when you read more and hear the views of traders on forums such as IC you realise there are a lot of people that don't express the "popular" opinion and then it is hard to act as a contrarian when you are confused as to what the contrarian view is.

I hope this makes sense and provokes some discussion. Questions welcome.

I now think 465 by xmas for POG may be a little optimistic.

Cheers
FT

fox_terrier

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Post Number: 293
Registered: 10-2003

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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:29 am:

However due to:

have always been something of a contrarian which has caught me out at times because i could not believe how long greed can extend a buying frenzy.

i could be totally wrong. Read "Hero or Goat" by John Mackenzie on the Safehaven site.

Cheers
FT

justice

Member

Post Number: 334
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:46 am:

Let's just put back the prognostication date to end January or if that fails then February or March. Certainly no later than April. Maybe Dubbya will find another Good war Dickie can _really_ make money in sooner rather than later.

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

rederob

Member

Post Number: 518
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 1


Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:56 am:

fox
goldbugs have a tendency to be naturally contrarian, and severely biased to POG upside
popular media and "expert/analyst" opinion are very different
fact is that there are not many gold experts that are not goldbugs
so popular media is unlikely to pander to "unpopular - possibly "out there" - biased" views
and as there are few popular media experts we "hear" a lot of nonsense, as far as I am concerned
this makes understanding gold a bit of a conundrum
if gold is not money, why can it be valued as a store of wealth?
the answer seems to be that it is actually more value by those that discredit it!
I say that because gold's detractors far outweigh supporters - so who is pressuring POG higher?
I think it more exciting following something that continues to defy logic than else in the markets
especially when our weird views can be regarded as sensible commentary from time to time - serendipity rules, OK

rederob

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Post Number: 519
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:05 am:

ice
got cold feet?
the table is always available for reviewing, so we can pluck it out from time to time to prove how wrong we can be!
if there is interest again, after rewarding the "winning" POGnosticator appropriately, we can next punt at end of quarter outcomes - so in January we could seek expert opinion on prices at 31March 2005.

in terms of POG overnight, i think the outcome was pleasing
POG effectively closing near/above very long term resistance
silver on a slippery slide, tho
best of all we go from overbought to oversold within a week and that's a great fillip
anyone think that gold cant jump $20 in 3weeks?
moreover, next rise should be through resistance - so $460 is an easy target

justice

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Post Number: 335
Registered: 01-2003

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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:29 am:

Cold feet?
No. Time just runs slower for some than other.

I'd be interested to see the table again.

It was a table of what we wanted the prices to be. :-)

I'm patient. But I see no point in riding the wave down at all. A little settling in the PM stock prices is required.
Oilers will lead the way.

Ice

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

justice

Member

Post Number: 336
Registered: 01-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:47 am:

fox_terrier,
As I understand Mackenzie, he thinks the POG is going to shoot up and gold stocks to collapse together with the rest of the chare market. I can't see that. I can't grasp his timeframe at all. Z day is tomorrow? When does the domed house appear according to this thesis - where even is whitesamurai's blow off double top.
Mackenzie has again served to confuse me again on the timeframe in mind, however I await his predictions for tonight's share market collapse with baited breath... and an ice-cold beer.

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

greenspansgout

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Post Number: 2
Registered: 12-2004

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Votes: 0


Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:42 pm:

Really very interesting to note the forecast from the Financial Forecast Centre on gold. Very very interesting indeed. I post on a forum where one of the very best chartists I've seen has been posting charts calling a dramatic reversal in gold's price for a while before it happened. He also posted a chart from the Financial Forecast Centre to support his case, as all the Goldbugs were giving him curry about his predictions! Unfortunately I can't include the chart from the FFC, but can point anyone reading this to the forum where I saw the chart if they like.

Also interesting to note commentary by Tim Woods at CBS marketwatch on gold - he has been correct at several stages on the gold market.

rederob

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Post Number: 521
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Saturday, December 11, 2004 - 12:15 pm:

greenspansgout
Financial Forecast Centre table is as per below - updated at 21 November:

The ill-fated POGnosticators is below:

Weekly chart is a picture of strength:

rederob

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Post Number: 525
Registered: 10-2002

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Wednesday, December 15, 2004 - 11:29 pm:

greenspansgout
A few posts disappeared into a cybervoid.
Now to the action:
Fed interest rate hike of 25 basis points did not do unto gold as others would have us believe, ie, knock it off its perch.
Indeed, less than a day later POG has jumped over $4/oz and is sitting over $439 as I write.
As POG has had no difficulty maintaining itself above $435 a breakout over $440 is very much on the cards with a possible end of year push to new highs.
What seems more certain is that the quieter times we typically expect around this time of year are less likely to eventuate, with most metals complexes poised for another upside run in the coming fortnight.
Add to this oil's strong consolidation in the $40-45/bbl range and the jigsaw pieces make more sense.
While most POGnosticators were overly bullish (so it seems right now), any breach of $455 could see strong follow through as it confirms the excellent technicals now in place for our lustrous marvel.

justice

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Post Number: 337
Registered: 01-2003

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Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 09:50 am:

Overnight, GWB payed lip-service to the strong USD policy. (They believed me about the weapons of mass destruction - heck they still do, they voted for me didn't they Dickie!) "All things dull will we bright again" he said. "It's all just an Al Qaeda plot to subvert the US Economy and it's God-fearing peoples: and we won't let it happen! We're on the job. We'll be printing more and more dull green dollars pronto. If we have to we'll let the EU help print more dull green dollars besides."
We'll tell the people that our fiat debt shines brighter than gold assets- and they'll believe us because we have God on our side and most of the people voted for me - didn't they Dickie."

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

archer

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Post Number: 423
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 09:59 am:

Go easy on him ice
Dubya has become my favorite comedian
rrr

justice

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Post Number: 338
Registered: 01-2003

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Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 10:22 am:

Dear GWB,
I'm not too hard I hope, but I do blame the pretzel I was originally barricking for though. :-)

Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

goldbug

Member

Post Number: 73