Archive through February 02, 2005

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vermante

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Post Number: 229
Registered: 11-2002

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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 02:01 pm:

A strengthening U.S dollar and rising U.S interest rates , is a negative for Gold.

Global political uncertainty is a positive for Gold . The anticipated political turmoil over the week-end elections in Iraq should see Gold hold over $U.S 420 in the next few days .

Which way will it break?Toss of the coin odds. Gold breaks below $418 - Could see it hit further lows.

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 572
Registered: 10-2002

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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 03:32 pm:

vermante
I think the issue of interest rates and POG is a massive furphy.
Note that as US interest rates have risen in the past year, so too has POG.
If interest rates continue to rise, the value of the greenback effectively decreases. This is the environment where gold comes into its own as it remains an intrinsic store of wealth/value.
It is instructive to read the key commentators 2005 forecast for precious metals: No massive gain in price over 2004, but no real weakness either:-
http://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/2005survey.pdf
Typically we err on the conservative side in early year forecasting unless the event horizon has something obvious to work from.
The obvious is US ability to service massive twin debts. Less obvious is timing the inevitable meltdown.

vermante

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Post Number: 230
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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 04:39 pm:

Rederob,

You may well be right. I have read several convincing arguments from both camps . At the end of the day , as a trader I have to make a decision.As my trading horizon is short term , I will let the technicals be the arbitrator in the matter. If POG drops below U.S $418 , I will be looking for alternative investments

Cheers

Vermante

archer

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Post Number: 457
Registered: 11-2002

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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 06:14 pm:

A picture says so many words[;->
intgold

(Message edited by archer on January 26, 2005)

vermante

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Post Number: 232
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, January 27, 2005 - 05:48 am:

Wall Street advice: Get heavy on metal

Refer kitco.com

Last week, Merrill Lynch & Co. resurrected its Metals & Mining Weekly research report after three years of silence. Earlier this month, Byron Wien, Morgan Stanley's senior investment strategist, said that silver, now at $6.71 an ounce, has the potential to trade above $10 this year; gold, he said, may rise above $500. (It's currently trading at $422.) A new gold exchange-traded fund, or ETF, launched last year to track movements in that precious metal, and the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, where metals trading occurs, is soon to release its own ETFs that will act as metal index funds.

Lets hope it can hold above $420. ?

Cheers

Vermante

rederob

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Post Number: 575
Registered: 10-2002

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Thursday, January 27, 2005 - 07:28 pm:

CRS announcement today a mixed bag.
CRS has increased reserves to all time record levels.
Gold production will not be strong until later in year when St Patrick's orebody is fully developed.
Hedging has worked well to date with AUD POG lower than rates delivered into, and with good exposure to spot market when that's a better deal.
Financially speaking CRS is already in a very strong position, and this will likely improve again in 2006 when it tackles its best orebodies. At the same time CRS is continuing its excellent run of orebody exploration/extension.
And the one that many may have missed: CRS has dipped into the kitty to part fund a Ghanian gold mine (unlisted for now) - let's see how that one pans out.

goldbug

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Post Number: 79
Registered: 02-2004

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Saturday, January 29, 2005 - 12:21 pm:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aAvDTJpsO1Nk&refer=home

You cant argue with their logic (Gates and Buffett)
Not so long ago I read Buffett was recommending hard assets ie Gold, Silver etc as a hedge against the dollars demise.....so far so good.

GB

rederob

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Post Number: 576
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Saturday, January 29, 2005 - 07:05 pm:

goldbug
If Gates decided to store a few tonnes of gold in a conspicuous place and post pictures on the internet we could see a rush!!!!
In the meantime, let's practise our bridge and see if we can gatecrash one of Gates online games.

keith_s

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Post Number: 15
Registered: 06-2004

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Saturday, January 29, 2005 - 07:39 pm:

Do you think that POG will be moving north from 5 to 20 March 2005?

rederob

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Post Number: 578
Registered: 10-2002

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Saturday, January 29, 2005 - 07:57 pm:

keith
Check the above gold chart posted 26 January.
The upward trend in intact and we are presently in a very strong consolidation phase - 4th week.
The typical pattern following consolidation has been an upside breakout over many weeks.
This is again quite likely for 2 compelling reasons.
First, the greenback is waning, so weakness will rally gold.
Secondly, in euro terms, gold has moved steadily higher during the month, signalling confidence in the precious metal.
Less evident is what US equities may do in coming weeks. My view, which is not worth a cracker, is that US equities will be generally lower due to an overall inability to impress the market about future growth.

archer

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Post Number: 461
Registered: 11-2002

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Sunday, January 30, 2005 - 12:55 pm:

Hey goldbug
Buffet and Gates have seen this coming for quite a while
Buffet purchased 120 million ounces of silver in the late 90s and a few years later Gates started buying large chunks
of Americas largest silver mining companies and from memory
i think Soros was doing the same as Gates
---------------------
Can edible gold be recycled
http://www.gildedplanet.com/ediblegoldleaf.asp
---------------------
Another gold ETF hits the boards
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C8209-1460595%2C00.html

goldbug

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Post Number: 80
Registered: 02-2004

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Monday, January 31, 2005 - 12:53 pm:

Edible Gold!!!!

Who said you can't eat it......

Archer, what are you like at driving a transit van very fast through the streets of London????
Just give me a few minutes in that vault and i don't know what i'm liable to do...

Rederob,
I've tried hacking in but I dont know how to play bridge..

GB

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/jan282005.html

Could be some more downside left in this correctional phase..
But at some stage we need the break from the $US/Euro.
With all the talk at Davos over the weekend about currencies and the imbalances in the world economies the time could be near when the POG rises in all currencies...

fox_terrier

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Post Number: 318
Registered: 10-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 10:34 am:

Rederob,

I have just been alerted to AGC. I have done some research and it looks like a promising gold/nickel play.

Do you know anything about this one and could you explain the following paragraph.

At the end of the Quarter, the Company had 263,327
ounces of gold hedged on a Flat Forward basis at
A$601 per ounce with monthly delivery varying in
accordance with anticipated production levels to July
2007. The marked to market value of the hedge book
at 31 December 2004 was negative $1.1 million using a
spot gold price of A$563.

I don't get the negative bit.

Cheers
FT

rederob

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Post Number: 582
Registered: 10-2002

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Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 07:46 pm:

foxy
I do not know much about Agincourt apart from the fact it has a massive prospective gold tenement, relatively high cash costs (of production) and a good rate of return.
I am not at all expert on hedging, and am confused as you about what they have stated as it seems not to make sense, nor do the maths work out: Compare with Lihir's recent statement - they have a negative mark to market of $220m because they have lousy hedge prices.
Given AGC will receive higher delivered-into prices, I thought they would have a POSITIVE mark to market.
I guess the important thing to understand is that AGC will be receiving over AU$600/oz while the spot price is presently around $45/oz less - and that's a great deal.

fox_terrier

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Post Number: 319
Registered: 10-2003

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Tuesday, February 01, 2005 - 11:06 pm: