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     sumamura
Member
Username: sumamura
Post Number: 19
Registered: 09-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 03:14 am: |  
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colin, tony, spider, and all other friends,
many of you may have already read this article. if not please check the article under following link -
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommel031805.html
the prospects are frightening.
i will appreciate your views about how such an eventuality can be avoided by the american financial system.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 713
Registered: 04-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 06:51 am: |
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Sumamura
The article is a typical gold ramper panic story
Gold is no more a store of value than my big toe
It does glint at people in times of panic but its ramped value at such times is no more a safe haven than my great great grandfather's big toe or mine
The world went off the the gold standard before WW2 and is not likely to return to it, either legally or even in a de facto relationship
The sky is not about to fall in ... and the loss of value by individual companies happens over time ... not usually in a sudden cataclysm [Gympie Gold was an exception when its coal mine blew up]
The fact that markets are slow to respond to fundamentals and then panic when charts head down (rightly so from the perspective of short term traders) does not alter the fact that economies thrive and benefit from the present paper based financial system when they don't abuse it
Multi decade value collapses are possible when artificial imbalances are forced to remain in place as happened in Japan
A market economy such as the USA should prosper once the obsession with war, debt, luxuries and non-productive services is handled as it must be for the dollar to strengthen
America may or may not be the modern equivalent of the decaying Roman Empire ... but if it is there are plenty of growing economies to take its place and the astute will follow the real growth
With Best Wishes
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 167
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 08:19 am: |
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Hilarius,
I'm going to have to disagree with you on the store of value statement....but agree on all the rest.
Gold is the ULTIMATE store of value. (its got to be worth more than your big toe...)
The US dollar is perceived to be a store of value because people trust the US to come up with the goods ie growth / or some sort of return for your investing in their currency.
The US has recently been through an explosion in credit on all fronts.....the easy credit is slowly but surely being taken away...the end result will be mountains of debt, higher interest rates, higher inflation and the prospect of....well there is no prospect for the US (long term).....The shift in economic powers will move to the Asian countries with the lead being taken by China as the growth engine....sure the US still has a roll to play but it won't be as it is now....hence the undoing of the dollar as a store of value.
The barbarous relic has been around, its seen all this before, all paper currencies end up down the gurgler....who would have thought 50 years ago that the Euro would have been possible...in the process it has sent local currencies in Europe into history.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/1480242.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1840475.stm
The chase to paper will continue but GOLD will be the ultimate store of value.
Regards
GB
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 714
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 09:30 am: |
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Hi GB
Gotta love someone with so much faith ... would you like a job at the Monastery?
I think you have a point (which I also hinted at) that gold can be a great counter cyclical store of value ... but ...
Taking the long view as I do it tends, does it not, to be in the nature of a spike ... here today and gone tomorrow?
If one can ride the gold spike up while everything else is collapsing around ... it can as I said give us the glitter of hope and real gain ... if we can stay on board the spike and exit when it begins to collapse
The problem there as always is knowing when a spike has reached exhaustion or is just taking a breather
Such things are always much clearer in hindsight and only the most nimble and astute will emerge unscathed
If only I could recruit you in the cause of the scriptures with the same energy and devotion you have for gold!
Blessings and Peace
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 168
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 09:48 am: |
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Hilarius,
Its a tough life...but someones gotta do it...
I'm patiently waiting for the 'spike'
Regards
(in monastic heaven)
GB
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 616
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 10:24 am: |
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Sumamura
Jason Hommel is at best a young sensationalist
I really would not read too much into his writing
All the best
---Archer---
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 169
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 01:09 pm: |
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Archer,
Your right, he maybe a sensationalist.....but he has a point...that is the $US is about to go down.
How convenient it was for the fed to leave an important sentence out last night "Longer-term inflation expectations remain well-contained," .... i mean how the fxxx can a sentence like that be left out of an official statement only to be included after the US market closed...
Today in Asia the $US IS being hit....the presumption being deduced from the late inclusion of 'THE' sentence that rate increases in the US have limited upside...probably more downside if truth be known....but the fed will continue on its merry way towards chasing a ghost inflation, meanwhile bringing down a fragile US economy that has been fuelled by easy money....either way, IMHO the fed and the $US are up shit creek...
Regards
GB
PS Hilarius...
your big toes do have value...try living without them...
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 617
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 02:10 pm: |
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No maybe's about it gold bug
Read some of his other articles and you'll find he really cant be taken seriously
--
Re the dollar
All currencies eventually fail and this U.S dollar will also
By the way this is already their third form of paper dollar
so thay have already had 2 failures in their short history
But its going to take years
The way Hommel writes you would think its going to fail
tommorow
That simply will not be allowed to happen nor would you want
to live in a world where that happened
The outcome would be catastrophic for the entire world
population
It will be a managed decline with little panics here and there
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 170
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 02:13 pm: |
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totally agree Archer...
Regards
GB
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 716
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 02:27 pm: |
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Good afternoon
It's difficult for a currency to die that works like a traveller's cheque in most parts of the world
Financial discipline, if and when re-asserted, will strengthen the dollar
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 171
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 02:45 pm: |
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Hilarius,
You've hit the nail on the head....
IF and WHEN financial discipline re-asserts itself the dollar will strengthen... so far discipline has been of short supply...
When i travel i use my GOLD amex ...can't stand travellers cheques...
Regards and happy travels
GB
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 618
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 03:03 pm: |
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Hilarius
You of all people should realize how ill fated paper money is
Its always difficult for currencies to die,but die they do
There is only one money that has stood the test of time
while hundreds and thousands of forms of currency have
failed over the last 5000 years
The future will be no different from the past
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 619
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 04, 2005 - 03:15 pm: |
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"does not alter the fact that economies thrive and benefit from the present paper based financial system when they don't abuse it "
--------
Therein lies the problem Hilarius
Its not the paper or the gold or the lack of gold that cause the constant failure but the human control of it
I'm betting that man does not change his spots this time
either
Id be crazy to bet for something that has a 100% failure
rate
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 1178
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 |
