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     rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 630
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:20 am: | 
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gb
was that a picture of vermante above as POG rose last night?
what was that?
aye aye
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vermante
Member
Username: vermante
Post Number: 253
Registered: 11-2002Rating: 
Votes: 2
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:40 am: |
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Rederob,
Far off the mark - Maybe it's your reflection in the mirror.
No wide eyed trader here. Gold shares are just just another trade . I have been "taken out " on certainties before . I am well within my position size and risk parameters. Objective of emotionless trading .
Cheers
Vermante
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 497
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:01 am: |
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February 22, 2005
A signal event has occurred this AM. The Central Bank of South Korea has announced its intentions to diversify out of its US $ foreign exchange holdings. South Korea has been a significant purchaser of US Treasury securities. It is the fourth largest $ foreign reserve holder in Asia. This has had the immediate effect of pushing all other currencies up (bid) and forcing the $ down – quite drastically. The $ is in decline and the potential exists for a "run" on the $. In this event gold ($432 +$5.10) and silver ($7.50) are substantially higher this AM. Ted Butler pointed out that he had never seen the gold and silver markets so well positioned, last week. He opined that if the technical funds have to gain gold and silver access they may push prices much higher. That may be in process, this AM. We will know much more by 9 AM New York time. At the same time UK Chancellor Gordon Brown says he will approach the Chinese to be natural buyers of the IMF gold hoard. Interesting times, n’est-ce pas?
I hope you have established your precious metals positioned.
MICHAEL BERRY
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 631
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:04 am: |
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vermante
i wish i was that handsome - alas
we shall all be taken out by that other certainty - in the fullness of time
i have no idea what the markets will do
but i like to try and work out why they are doing what they do
and there are some well worn directional tracks that give us a clue
apart from that the posts here are intended in good humour if they can't be at least some part constructive
may you and Captain Chaza enjoy a first class trip
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 525
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:07 am: |
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Rederob
Wash your mouth out!
We are not supposed to worry about why the markets do what they do
We only need to worry about what they do
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 632
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:16 am: |
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Dear Bro Hilarius
How can I complete my grand unified theory of the markets without a total understanding of what happens?
Is there any point to this mortal coil?
Taxing stuff:
Will be the death of me!
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 526
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:36 am: |
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Rederob
There's always a prayer stall for you at the Friary
Buy, hold and pray 
Hilarius
PS We brought nothing into the world and we take nothing out
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 633
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:47 am: |
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Dear Bro Hilarius
Is enlightenment tangible?
It may be the missing ingredient in the grand unified theory.
Curiously, the forces that underpin the visible universe are obvious, but invisible: space, time and energy.
Perhaps this conundrum can be applied to the markets: fear greed and apprehension.
Who will join me at the prayer stall?
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 109
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 11:50 am: |
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Hilarius,
I know of a couple of central bankers that should start praying......
Regards
gb
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 110
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 01:52 pm: |
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looks like he's praying......
or hes finally decided to bite his lip....
or someones shoved a gold brick up his bum....
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 542
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 03:10 am: |
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Goldbug
The USA has a problem with inflation?
Bloomberg 23/2/05 :-
Consumer Prices in U.S. Rise 0.1 Percent; Core Prices Increase 0.2 Percent
Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.1 percent in January, less than forecast and suggesting companies haven't been able to pass on their higher raw materials costs.
[End of Quote]
Not saying you are wrong ... but just wondering what you think about that?
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 111
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 08:00 am: |
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Hilarius,
Gee, were do i start......
The CPI figure (if you can believe it) is from a government source ... lets just say they have been known to twist the truth a little...
Lets start with Greenspan and his policy to leave interest rates at all time lows and its effect on the global property market.
I'll concentrate on my own personal experiences here as people may readily relate.
Firstly the global housing 'bubble' that was created from this easy money policy....
I bought a house in Perth 7 years ago and sold it last year for an annual gain of 25% cumulative.....it was a dump.
I also tried to buy a house in the UK a few years ago and repeatedly kept getting kazumped (gave up in the end and rented.....)
Moved back to New Zealand last year....bought a house for a price that seemed like a lot of money (in NZ money) and probably was.
From what i have read and people i have talked to there is a housing bubble in the US and even France were property ownership hasn't got the same cultural significance as in the other countries mentioned, also shot up...but the french don't give too hoots....a house is somewhere you live...its not a store of wealth...maybe the french are onto something..
In the countries were house prices soared (not France)people borrowed against this new equity and went on and continue to go on spending binges mainly consumables(rates are still too low) thus making them feel good and why shouldn't they they didn't have to save, they let their new found wealth in their house do that for them.
I worked in Western Australia in the mining industry designing mines mainly iron ore, copper gold etc during the early nineties (it was slow) people were more interested in the new economy were you didn't have to get your hands dirty you could double click and buy some tech shares and make a bundle some did some didn't.
Because of the stalled investment in mining (it takes a number of years to firstly find,locate and purchase some land that has potential for an ore body then do a feasibility study, find someone who will fund it and get it designed then build it, commission it and finally start shipping it or finding some buyers.....you get my drift)
you can't just double click....
Because of the global consuming binge bought on by this easy money policy...... we created the economic monster as we know as China ...they produce stuff that we buy..... go on have a look at the shirt on your back its probably made in China....
China as you know needs raw materials and quite a lot i have been told, i also have been informed that they have a fairly large population that want what you and I have (they can't have my gold though, they'll have to cough up for that.....)
Because of Chinas insatiable appetite for raw materials prices for these commodities are soaring this is the root for inflation in my eyes.......i maybe wrong (most probably)
China also needs oil and lots of it and they want it now......the price also doing a bolter thus feeding through to inflation (that and food not shown in the official inflation figures as it is conveniently left out....wonder why ah!!!)
So in summary there are other factors which i could go into ie FX rates, political agenda's, the colour of my favourite underwear but i would probably embarras myself..oops i already have...
When Greenspan says 'Inflation and Inflation expectations are well anchored' my jaw drops in disbelief, as from my own experiences i know he is bending the truth slightly...
Hope I have been clear as possible to my reasoning and its not some ramblings of a deranged lunatic.....
Regards
GB
PS my daughters school fees went up 7% this year i bet they don't include that in their manipulated CPI figures darn sure of that....
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 158
Registered: 01-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 09:36 am: |
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I dont want to be too attached to my own opinions about the market, being a short term trader. But a technical guy is a closet economist anyway, so once again i cant help myself.
The CPI numbers consist of actually two set of data. The core CPI data which excludes food and energy is at 0.2 percent. the lower CPI numbers is as a result of lower oil prices in the last two months. Guess where oil is at now. So the US will have shocker CPI in a month or two.
The other thing is the PPI number that was released last friday and was high. That means producer hasnt been passed on the inflated cost because of lack of pricing power.
Generally the CPI is the rear view mirror, the US market has been rallying in anticipation of this number anyway.
Looking forward, the best market view of inflation is the relative performance of CRB over US bond.
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hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 543
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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