Archive through April 27, 2005
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     rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 715
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 08, 2005 - 08:17 pm: | 
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Ready to go long?
The ANZ investment Bank today indicated the AUD was heading lower (66cents by year end) and that POG could hit $370 on a technical view.
I always take this as confirmation that the opposite trend is prevalent.
It is curious that while ANZ is picking a stronger greenback, prominent analysts weighed in yesterday with their thoughts on the future of the dollar as part of a Bloomberg survey. Deutsche Bank provided the most bearish outlook, saying that the buck will drop to $1.43 against the euro by year-end. Merrill Lynch foresaw a $1.36 dollar, while UBS predicted $1.40. Morgan Stanley made the bull case, saying the dollar will rise to $1.26 by year-end (from present $1.28).
I think that because POG in euro terms has actually increased markedly in recent weeks, there is an exceptionally strong chance that greenback weakness will strongly advance POG.
It may be true that further increases in FED rates will draw in more buying of the greenback, thereby strengthening it, but what is the underlying story?
It's of a currency facing the largest current account and budget deficits imaginable, and a government that has no plan to turn this around: Let alone be able to turn it around.
That's why I'm still on gold, and a wee dram of silver.
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 145
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 08, 2005 - 09:30 pm: |
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Hi Rederob,
Just read the same thing:
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/anz/anz.pdf
Everyone to their own i guess...but
The fed have only just come out and indicated that inflation is rising.....Traders took this as a sign to buy the dollar on the assumption that the fed will keep inflation contained.....ha ha ha.
Firstly, inflation the kind that doesn't effect Greenspan ie Fuel costs, housing, and the stuff ordinary people have to be deal with every day have been going up for sometime now...
The bozo's at the fed are way behind the curve and have a lot of catch up to do before they even get on par let alone contain inflation...once this realisation smacks the traders who are buying the dollar in the head it will be too late for them....
The fed will be raising rates at a measured pace...if they raise at a more aggressive rate (which they must to keep inflation in check) they run the very real risk of bringing down the housing market in the US which is mortgaged up to the eyeballs...thus causing a severe depression.
Next week we have trade figures coming out of the US....anyone predicting a decline.....with oil at ATH
i guess not.
to all the ANZ clients....short gold at your peril!!!
Regards
GB
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 146
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 07:40 pm: |
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 120
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 08:15 pm: |
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Stand back a bit.
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smallworld
Member
Username: smallworld
Post Number: 204
Registered: 01-2004Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 11:38 pm: |
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two months ago I posted something about gold and gold stocks http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=294699&post=59543#POST59543
I want to look at that again.
There were altogether 3 divergences between gold futures and gold stocks since new millenium. The top chart is gold futures and the bottom chart is XAU, the gold stock index.
1. 2001 - XAU made a new low in late 2000 but gold made a higher low in the following 3 months.XAU was affected by the sentiment of the stock market, but that was not shared by gold investors. In fact the higher low was the turning point from a downtrend into an uptrend.
2. 2003. XAU made lower highs but Gold futures definitely made higher highs. This happened during the war, stock investors thought gold price would decline once the war started, just like the 1st Gulf war, but the Gold futures said that this time was different from that in the early 80s when gold was in a secular decline.
3. The divergence as I posted two months ago. Gold made new highs in 2005 but XAU made a lower high. I dont know for sure, but gold stock investors probably think that the interest tightening cycle has started and the USD will rally and push the gold price down.
During the last 3 divergences I noticed that
a. the gold futures wins out twice, and the 3rd still has to play out.
b. There is indeed quite deep retracements, perhaps calling it cyclical bear will be apropriate.
Looking at the price of Gold alone.
3 forks describe this secular bull. the dotted brown fork is the entire bull campaign. the blue describes this run since 2003. and the green fork describes the last leg up, and the lost of momentum. the Median lines actually became resistances rather than support. I wont post the daily here, but suffice to say that gold is touching the lower median line created with the previous high and lows.
In conclusion, In the short term, the cyclical bear is prowing around and the bull is just hanging on and it will depend entirely on how much uncle sam is worth. In the longer term, I think this gold bull is not same as any other bull trend in our life time. not in the 80s, not in the 70s either. I think Ann is closest to the mark when she posted about the Kondratieff wave http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=63304#POST63304. But Gold wasnt floated until the 70s. Anyhow, if this secular gold bull is credible, 400 should provide very strong support.
Cheers
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 743
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 15, 2005 - 07:04 pm: |
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g'day smallworld
great charts above
one of the more comforting bits of info on gold is that during this general carnage to global markets, eurogold price has remained firm in the $329-330 range
even ozgold price has remained near $55o throughout
so the price breakdown in greenback terms is not reflected in other currencies
this is interesting as some of the usual relativities have fallen away, in particular the inverse relationship with the DOW
gold has faltered more on speculation of IMF gold sales, and from Fed "entrails" on rate movements
there is no evidence thus far that actual US interest changes have a material affect on the gold price
whereas "talk" of rate movements feeds back into gold price movements
what appears to have stemmed POG upside is relative firmness of the greenback over the past month
how much longer will this continue?
or will it actually gather strength?
the crystal ball is hazy for now
those out fishing will get a better outcome than ticker watchers for the time being
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 160
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 17, 2005 - 03:19 pm: |
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Hello,
The IMF over this weekend have made no commitment to selling any gold at this stage...what will the market make of this???
A price drop to $410 would be in my opinion a big blow for POG...
POG needs to hold this mid $420 level....a run either way could be the catalyst for a bigger move..
Regards
GB
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 1150
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 18, 2005 - 07:00 pm: |
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Ahoy Officers Archie, Big Bad Red Rob and Goldbugs
Looks like we may get our gap we richly deserve in the morning if all goes according to plan?
Fingers and Toes crossed as always!
Salute
Captain Chaza
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 756
Registered: 10-2002Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Monday, April 18, 2005 - 08:33 pm: |
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chazadelic
what's the plan?
keeping the fingers and toes crossed?
set out the lubber's line, perhaps?
have been treading water and the barnacles have added some deadweight
yaws faithfully
bigbadredrob
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captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza
Post Number: 1152
Registered: 02-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 12:13 am: |
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Ahoy Officer Big Bad Red Rob
"WHAT'S the PLAN???"
A man must have some objective that impels him to set out. This is obvious.
Yet, it must be clear in his mind just what his objective is, otherwise his ship may be prepared for one thing and his crew another.
There is a wide range of objectives that have set men sailing across the Global Exchange.
Some are resolved to sail solo in small or large craft, just to show they can do it.
Others, cruise in new waters just because it is far from the strain of work and home pressures. Some may sail together with their wife and children on board so that their children can start their life in a vigorous new environment.
But for the most part, men set out largely because they simply love the life at sea.
In recent years, more men and women have set out to race each other across the oceans for no other reason than it is the nature of man to race, to know precisely where the destination lies and to compete for the splendid trophies and prize money.
Nowadays, even brokers and their staff are participating in this great sport with their own money.
As any voyage on the ASX is a difficult task, before starting his preparations he will do well to decide precisely what he wants to do and where he wishes to go.
That is unless he has such wealth, he can afford to prepare for anything, act according to the whim of the moment and claim to himself and his crew that any unpleasant excursion had an alternative motive.
Maybe a very long term goal, luxury class accommodation with all its benefits and many other taxing and complex reasons are common
By nature man is competitive and finds great satisfaction from working hard either singularly or as a team member to accomplish a set goal.
On the Global Exchange for every winner there must inevitably be a loser. Hence, the greatest sustained effort possible is not only needed but demanded.
Much more than is the case in any other sport.
The frustration, anticipation and anxiety about selecting the most satisfying ocean to challenge, the best ship on which to sail and then the thrill of fast sailing through her waves produces more adrenalins than can be formulated in any drug.
The loneliness in the vastness of the open ocean is only contrasted to the warm friendship of land.
The anticipation and apprehensions of the wind and seas force and direction?
The perplexing evolution of a calm, the intense concentration of steering the craft and the hectic midnight battles as the Global Exchange never sleeps
The impetuous wave riding as she foams ahead scarcely under control and the heavy thud as she falls off a wave top to lie shaken in the trough.
All these are lively champagne experiences which can only be tasted to the fullest and enjoyed by a crew whose training is fully mature as they watch the week long duels between the bullish and bearish skippers.
You ask "What's the Plan?" Officer Big Bad Red Rob
THAT'S the PLAN!
Notwithstanding a NE North Easterly course naturally!!
Allowing for Leeway in these trying conditions even a NEE or even Due Easterly course would be acceptable for a short time
You must always remember brave and loyal officer
Lots of Landlubbers are all to happy to lose 30% and 50% of there capital
They comfort each other in that it was a Retracement and a Correction
It has never ceased to amaze me how they can put a positive spin on such huge negative results
Such is life on land I guess?
Salute
Captain Chaza
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 19, 2005)
(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 19, 2005)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 161
Registered: 02-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 06:16 am: |
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good morning...
in the face of global stock market meltdowns the cappers have been at it again.... the break will be explosive!!
http://www.kitco.com/ind/norcini/apr182005.html
regards
GB
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 757
Registered: 10-2002Rating:
Votes: 1
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| | Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 07:19 am: |
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Captain Chaza, ahoy
Painting me as an alsoran?
Or a boy with a ploy
Not a man with a plan
Am I all at sea
Running the lubber's line
Set to nor' nor' ea'
No, not in decline
Foul weather strikes
And I loose a few bob
But that's what I likes
Coz I'm ready to rob
With anchors aweigh
And the virtues of "spin"
It's a great game to play
Regardless of wind
So the Global Exchange
With plain sailing men
Must rid of its mange
And scurvy of revenge
To steer a safe course
In the bourse
We descend
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eblode
Member
Username: eblode
Post Number: 111
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 07:34 am: |
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Hey Rob,
I knew you were a latin buff but now a poet?
Cheers
Eugenio
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 596
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 20, 2005 - 11:36 am: |
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5 Year Gold