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     hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius
Post Number: 576
Registered: 04-2004Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 03:12 pm: | 
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Bro Rederob
Many are chased but few are caught
So it hard to count, but the race is almost as exciting as the victory
Hilarius
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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suemac
Member
Username: suemac
Post Number: 260
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 08:07 pm: |
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Now, where were we? Oh yes, Commodities - base metals/oil!
Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 662
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, March 14, 2005 - 09:35 pm: |
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Bro Hilarius
If you must know, I did court the one most chaste.
But apparently suemac prefers to keep the thread more weft than warped - see what we can selvage for her.
Copper: tight, exchanges continue to draw down despite hefty backwardation
Nickel: 1500 tonnes added to inventory in past week after backwardation blew out to over $200/tonne - market remains very tight.
Lead: continues to tighten and with headroom on RSI it will hold its prices high for medium term
Aluminium: RSI will impede near term runups, though stock draw downs will keep price pressure lid on
Zinc: mooted for a big deficit this year and drawdowns suggest this is on cue: RSI getting toppy
Tin: thin market, low inventory, firm demand - expect another crack at $10,000 this year
Am waiting for Bro Hilarius to trump us with a majestic chart showing how BHP and RIO have moved vis a vis commodities.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 525
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 15, 2005 - 08:22 am: |
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Sorry for the distraction suemac but the more i study history-the more time seems like a wheel in that as the wheel turns one revolution and we return to the spoke we started on history starts to repeat-
As Gann said-"There is nothing new under the sun"
I have lightened up on resource stocks as i expect a significant correction soon
The CRB chart shows a clear 5 waves up with 3 almost equal drives up with very clear divergence against this last leg
I think the correction in resource stocks will coincide with a correction in the general market to 3500-3600 XAO
Similar to our hosts expected retracement area
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suemac
Member
Username: suemac
Post Number: 262
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, March 15, 2005 - 09:24 am: |
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Gentlemen, I jest, of course! I enjoy the banter and probably understand it better than the bourse; appreciate clever tradesmen and wordsmiths.
Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 665
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 01:07 am: |
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suemac
Just for you tonight we have a bath of sensuous oils to bathe in.
Pardon?
Oh
Dear me
Apparently that should be expensive oils.
Sorry
What was that?
And they're destined for Beijin!
Up yours, they're shouting
How rude
Sorry, that should have been crude - West Texas intermediate, it seems.
Hear here wie es dir gefallt:
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 666
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 09:28 am: |
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As a Comsec client, a couple of years ago I started reading more thoroughly through their range of market reports.
Inter alia, they (Comsec) have for some time had a "six month" view that oil prices will fall. Apart from a 30% slide in a matter of weeks about 2 years ago, oil prices have been on a constant incline and the pundits suggest $60/bbl is a dead cert.
But a year ago I though the "experts" would be getting it right and sold out of nice positions on OSH and STO (but kept WPL).
I now rely on my own counsel on commodity pricing, and am much happier being wrong because I got it wrong, than because I blindly followed a false god!
That said, I realise forecasting is an inexact science built on multivariate foundations.
So for one's edification I have tabled Comsec recent forecasts on base metals.
The overwhelming evidence of misfit is that present spot prices (except for tin) are substantially higher than 2004 year averages, let alone any of Comsec's forecasts: Note that in the space of 3 months Comsec made substantial revisions to 2005 forecasts, and still behind the 8-ball.
The question is, could Comsec be right this year?
Maybe
But it will require a substantial breakdown of the DOW.
In turn, this might add to a collapse of the greenback: Wherein we are faced with a dilemma. As commodity prices are expressed in US dollars there is every chance that US denominated commodity prices will increase significantly.
In Oz the issue will be whether or not we can maintain commodity price parity in AUD terms while the greenback dives - ie, can Oz miners maintain their shareprice momentum.
At this point in time I believe commodity prices will have another few runs higher before base metal demand wanes and/or supply gets on top.
This latter factor will kick in during 2006.
But will India have begun to take up any slack from the US by then?
Keep watching..........
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suemac
Member
Username: suemac
Post Number: 265
Registered: 01-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 07:57 pm: |
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Ah Robert Rouge, At the wee small hour of your writing was it your hearing or sight that you had lost? Perhaps other senses? Hmmmmm. I note that it was your post number 666! Now there's another perspective!!!!
Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 667
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, March 19, 2005 - 08:09 pm: |
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suemac
the devil may care
but she never made me do it
i think it was my marbles lost
other senses just deprived in the fullness of time
nice to get a reply that's not about the farknosedoldwombat kerfuffle
enjoy the rest of your transmissions
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 672
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 24, 2005 - 08:41 am: |
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Bleak night for metals as funds took their money off the table with a stronger greenback.
Let's hope the retrace bites deeper and offers a better buying opportunity.
The next upleg will lock in price support at historical highs that may last until year's end.
I don't envisage base metals will have another buy opportunity in the medium term as prices for now seem well stretched and we would need to see what demand did with the numbers.
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 20
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 24, 2005 - 11:45 am: |
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redrob,read with interest your valued opinion on metals this morning,tis where all my 2 bobs are/also read where you had a position in a small nickle miner < nickle australia,NKL was wondering if you would give an opinion on it please/danielc/also an opinion on minara/MRE/ which i am watching closely and as i understand you are holding would be appreciated,
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 673
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 24, 2005 - 09:11 pm: |
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daniel
NKL is a pure spec play - they have great tenements and an excellent exploration strategy.
But minerals don't have to obey any rules and many of the biggest finds are equally accidental - looking for gold and found nickel!!!
MRE is an interesting stock: Debt free and and a great eps multiple, but laden with a legacy of poor plant performance that prevents it running at nameplate capacity.
Nameplate capacity is the key here, as MRE's total output costs vary only marginally whether or not it produces 30000tonnes or 40000tonnes. In other words, the higher MRE's output, the cheaper per pound (in this example - 30ktonnes v's 40ktonnes - MRE would reduce per pound production costs by some 30%).
The good news is that present high nickel prices are allowing MRE the opportunity to invest substantially in lifting output performance.
It remains to be seen how successful they will be, but they are shortly due for a mandatory shutdown and will no doubt pull out all stops to reduce bottlenecks and renew outdated plant.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 674
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 24, 2005 - 09:58 pm: |
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Base metals tonight are poised to recapture ground lost over recent days when the greenback was propped up temporarily by a Fed rate hike.
Inventories remain not only tight, but prone to large drawdowns that frighten the bejeebers out futures traders. For example, LME copper inventory declined 3% today (after last week's decline of 8% on Shanghai), sending the clear message that demand is very strong.
Given that copper backwardation is around $140/tonne and nickel around $370/tonne and no dents are made at exchange warehouses, one would be foolish not to be afraid!
Paul van Eeden, whose views I respect on commodities, (http://www.paulvaneeden.com/) is calling the commodity bull at an end. He may be right, but I reckon he's at least 6 months early, and possibly over a year too soon.
He also seems to be placing a UScentric view on his statement, with the longer term notion that the US is going down the gurgler.
The question to be answered is if a massive slowdown in the US will flow across national boundaries.
So consider this: If money is tighter in the US in future, will consumers be buying more expensive locally produced items, or buying the "made in China" label?
I suggest the latter!
In other words, it's entirely possible (some say probable) that a global slowdown can feed Chinese production beyond present levels.
So I urge readers to think a little beyond the printed ink on tabloids, and to carefully read the labels from now on.
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 21
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, March 24, 2005 - 10:19 pm: |
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redrob,thank you for your response/danielc
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