Archive through May 02, 2005
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     rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 698
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 11:54 am: | 
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perler, it will!!!
to the extent that refineries have capacity to "store" the crude - perhaps that's where the problem lies.
in other words, the refineries may be at full capacity in terms of unrefined crude and refined products - i just don't know!!
but if the price is going up on refining capacity i am supposing some others are more expert at determining that this is a problem - or maybe they are as silly as me.
whatever, the price keeps surging higher.........
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 708
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 07:59 am: |
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A quick observation:
Base metals have been coming only slightly off the boil while the greenback has run to 5-month highs.
Oil's dip over recent days could be just as easily explained by dollar weakness.
As we know, currencies run in cycles and soon the greenback will weaken again.
So I fully expect another base metal rally this quarter to historic highs - especially nickel which will experience supply problems from Norilsk, and from mandatory maintenance shutdowns from US and Oz suppliers.
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 23
Registered: 09-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 09:14 am: |
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luv ya redrob you steady me.i tend to stand too close and get caught up in the noise,your posts make me stand back and look at the big picture, best danc}
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greatdane
Member
Username: greatdane
Post Number: 178
Registered: 12-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 12:25 pm: |
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MARKET TALK: Nickel In Consolidation; Outokumpu Impact 06/04/05 10:45:00
0045 GMT [Dow Jones] Nickel maintaining consolidation mode above $15,600 support as LME stocks take another hit. LME 3-month $15,750/ton, up just $50 on London PM kerb. Major producer Outokumpu's cautious outlook for European stainless steel demand weighing a bit; company hinted it will focus more on Asia, where demand still robust. Some analysts wondering if remarks will be reflected in upcoming results of Inco, world's largest nickel producer;
stainless steel companies are main buyers of nickel. (JAD)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
Regards, GreatDane
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 714
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 07, 2005 - 09:18 pm: |
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7 April 2005:
The fall in global metal stockpiles was stabilising, and supply in base metals markets was starting to flatten out relative to demand, Westpac Banking Corp general manager economics Bill Evans said.
So what his evidence?
I can't find any all and I only look each day.
For example, copper stockpiles in the US are again declining markedly, and Shanghai has so little left that its coffers could empty at any time.
Zinc drawdowns continue apace.
Only Nickel has really yo-yoed, but it's in a very tight, almost illiquid market at the moment.
The only saviour for several of the complexes is that backwardation rates are allowing warehouses to restock.
So, danielc and others that might get too close for comfort, sit back and watch the prices run further north... enjoy.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 717
Registered: 10-2002Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 12:53 pm: |
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We're running out of oil, says Costello
By Josh Gordon
Economics correspondent
Canberra
April 9, 2005
Treasurer Peter Costello has delivered a blunt warning that Australia is running out of oil as existing fields near the end of their productive lives.
In a speech to the Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association, Mr Costello said it was little known that Australian exports of fuel had been falling for years despite soaring prices.
"The reason why Australia's crude oil exports have fallen over recent years - while world demand and prices have increased to record levels and LNG exports are booming - is that some of our oilfields are approaching the end of their productive lives," he said.
It doesn't take much to satisfy Oz oil needs (about 600k barrels/day compared to world's use of 82million bbl/day).
But it will mean that as our o/s oil dependence increases, so too will our current account deficit - and inflationary burden.
Luckily oil prices have had their longest losing streak since last August - and at over US$53/bbl you can see we are at bargain basement prices again!
Yes, US crude inventories have risen 8 weeks in a row and some pressure is off oil near term - let's see how long it lasts.
Onto base metals:
Copper and nickel are poised for bigger things as supply tightness spooks speculators and leaves commercials wondering how long to play the game.
While technically relatively "neutral", these metals could do with a spell in the paddocks next week before striking fast running form again.
Regrettably, LME data suggests a lot of warehouse action in play, and likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
So forays north for copper and nickel should prevail.
I have a suspicion that once the BHP v's China iron ore price dispute is resolved, nickel will have a steady path higher over the next 12 months - I will stick out my neck and propose $17,000 nickel as support by year's end.
Copper's predicament is mapped below:
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danielc
Member
Username: danielc
Post Number: 24
Registered: 09-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 10, 2005 - 07:32 pm: |
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redrob,been watching stock IGO,independence group,a nickel producer, strong day week and mth charts,mention in latest shares mag as a goer,half a hair off taking a possie,do you have any opinion please,regards danielc
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 722
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 10, 2005 - 07:52 pm: |
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danielc
IGO has been on my watchlist for several months after a colleague in WA said it was his favourite junior commodity stock.
I looked at it at the time and reckoned it was OK - not looked since.
Had good reserves, strong cash position and was a low cost producer. Also had good tenements for exploration activity.
Given that the average price of nickel was again higher in March than in December quarter, IGO should have a great second half.
My preferred nickel junior is SMY and I believe it will have a result at financial year end exceptionally better than pro forma.
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 735
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 08:21 pm: |
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Just noticed LME copper inventory increased markedly (1775 tonnes) today.
Looks like the tide has turned.
Not at all!
In fact available copper increased only 250 tonnes as 1500 tonnes of cancelled warrants have not been removed from the warehouse as yet.
Meanwhile, Comex warehouses have continued to run down stocks of copper, and Shanghai's exchange is dreading a possible 10000tonne drawdown as the State Reserve may take physically delivery in the week (rolled forward from March).
Note that copper's tightness was propelling or sustaining base metal prices during the last month as the USD appreciated - a rare event.
Greenback weakness must be causing consumers some grief as copper's upside seems assured near/immediate term as long positions continue to build.
Nickel's narrow range is a marvel and its tight supply must also be creating some worry.
It does seem that consumers stopped buying earlier this year, in an attempt to reduce prices to the preferred under-$15000 range.
Lo and behold, it has not worked as the juggernaught we know as China did not apply the brakes as many anticipated, and continues its long march north.
Meanwhile, oil toys with funds who know not what to do - go short or long?
There may be enough crude, we know there's just enough refined, but then there could be an event of any magnitude to tip the scales high.
Short term downside should be the order of the day, but to gamble against a refinery problem, an earthquake, some political unrest in the M.E., Africa or S.America, or any of dozens of possible "situations" is an equally risky play, it seems.
Who will blink first?
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 736
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 08:44 am: |
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overnight fund dumping of base metals hit copper hardest - 3cent drop
clearly the rise needed to cap and falter - has happened
a few more days in the wilderness will do the metals complex good
although miners/producers will get smacked about today
fundamentals keep tightening - so rebound assured
US trade data mixed with Fed statement dissection gave mixed messages, tho propped up DOW overnight
oil tumbled a few dollars
paraphrasing Keating , its the correction we had to have
now lets get back to business
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 738
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:07 am: |
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"Absolute carnage"
almost - with nickel holding up relatively well
as Bloomberg put it
"The collective bail-out follows London Metal Exchange copper's scaling of historic highs of $3,338 per metric ton early Tuesday driven by a perceived squeeze of Chinese-based players. Profit takers stepped in at the highs to take advantage of the record prices, and further sellers joined the fray as prices retreated and the U.S. dollar stretched off recent lows soon after."
as my post last Saturday shows for copper, a downside break to 147cents could be tolerated - and spot prices did dip a touch under 148cents
so we reached a point where a break either way might tip the scales medium term
Shanghai inventory levels are announced later today and may weigh on the speculators and funds alike - if a mooted 10000tonnes offtake by China's State Reserve eventuates a move to the upside will be on in earnest
in the interim, US copper stockpiles have sustained firm daily drawdowns, countering LME resupply in the main
so copper's fundamentals are now screaming the "go long again" slogan
unlike oil that has amassed crude inventory builds across the globe, albeit slowly, copper remains at a global long term inventory low
and there is no sign yet that demand is being met or that "balance" has arrived - drawdown quantities remain robust in a market that is trying to eke out a price collapse by withholding replenishment
so we are now ripe for a climb over 160cents by end June
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 582
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:36 am: |
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Was going to post this yesterday
Overnight the triangle broke down
You can see some ugly moves from a break like that
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vermante
Member
Username: vermante
Post Number: 279
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:59 am: |
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The Chairmans report -RIO included the following comments on the demand growth for metals and minerals in 2005. I believe BHP had a similar outlook. Any carnage in the base metals sector , could be an ideal buying opportunity?.
Outlook
Regarding the outlook, we foresee continuing underlying demand growth for metals and
minerals in 2005.
In this environment, we expect that prices for most metals and minerals will remain above
the long term trend this year, although there may be some short term volatility.
The future
direction of the US dollar relative to our producing currencies remains an uncertainty and will
inevitably have an impact on earnings.
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archer
Member
Username: archer
Post Number: 586
Registered: 11-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 15, 2005 - 11:18 am: |
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