Archive through June 18, 2005

Chart Forum » Forex » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 18, 2005

«« « Previous Next » »»

Author

Message

archer

Member

Post Number: 734
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 12:43 pm:

goldbug

Member

Post Number: 206
Registered: 02-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 01:00 pm:

Yes Rederob a significant event indeed.

Gold in all currencies had a blinder last night.
The Swiss Franc and Yen had moves of 2.0% and 1.85% respectively.

Greenspan spoke ..... and the people bought GOLD!!!

Regards

GB

archer

Member

Post Number: 735
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 01:19 pm:

rederob

Member

Post Number: 899
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 09:46 pm:

last post stolen by the gremlins - retry.......

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 7
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 02:09 pm:

Hi guys,
Being a relative newcomer to this game, I'm looking to draw on your experience in something that's nagging at me.

You see, in looking at all the information at hand, there seems to be a scenario developing and I'm not sure what to do about it.

In short, I think the US markets have reached the peak of their brief recovery rally, and will, together with the rest of the American economy, begin an inexorable slide to oblivion. Whether this slide is quick and violent, or slow and relentless I don't know.

I think the Australian markets will follow the US markets down, though I'm not sure if the usual coupling of the two will drag us as far, largely because of our high commodities component.

But then, even as I write that, I'm thinking if the US goes catatonic on us, then it will stop consuming as much, and that's bad for commodities - so we well might see a sharp drop in commodities prices. Not sure.

But one thing's for sure - the price of gold will head in the opposite direction to the markets, rising sharply to new heights.

Now - my principal concern is - given that the market will be heading South with a vengeance, and the bears will rule for a long time following - what will the affect be on the share prices of the gold producers?

Has there been a precedent which gives any indication as to how the share prices of the gold companies will behave with two confliction forces at hand? Those being sharply falling market, but rising gold prices (hence very healthy profits).

One would think that the share prices would rise.

But then, if the markets are aflame with the buyers all AWOL, and their money goes into something else (god knows what), then reasoning says the share prices of gold companies will fall with the rest of the market and stay flat, regardless of profits.

Any idea's?

I've been avidly following the posts - very interesting group.
Thanks
Sparticus

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 8
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 10:34 pm:

Oh, and by the way, Redrob, thanks for the reply to my question about the connection of POG with POO - I think it was around April the 2nd. I had to go away and though I benefitted from your reply, in the flurry of activity I forgot to acknowledge it.
CU
Sparticus

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 9
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 10:09 pm:

Hmm, speaking of gremlins, my last post appears to have disappeared as well.

So I'll try again.

I asked a question of you all, largely because I have limited experience of the vagaries of the markets. But it's relevant to what I think is coming, and I would like a few ideas from more experienced players.

I think there is a scenario forming, and it looks like this.

I think conditions are such that the US markets have peaked in what was largely a temporary relief rally, and will resume falling very soon. I think they wil fall a long way. Whether they fall fast or slow, I've no idea, but they will fall and the bear will be here for a long time.

Given the reciprocal nature of our market with the US, Australia will also fall .

I believe there'll be a rush to gold which will cause the POG to rise steeply and enduringly.

Now, I want to know - if the general market is in freefall, how do you think the Gold Sector will react to the rising Gold price?

Will it get sold off along with everything else, or will it be the only sector to rise, considering it's quite oversold now?

Any suggestions?

thanks
Sparticus

rederob

Member

Post Number: 903
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 12, 2005 - 12:46 am:

sparticus
if you have time, sift through earlier gold threads and you will see this issue is what keeps us posted, as it were
beware, Greenspan's ticker will ensure the US bear presents itself at a measured pace
so learn to be patient
Rome was not defended in a day

goldbug

Member

Post Number: 207
Registered: 02-2004

Rating:
Votes: 1


Sunday, June 12, 2005 - 11:40 am:

Sparticus,

Archers chart above is poignant for the gold price going forward not just in $US but all currencies, in that its showing what has been a very close relationship between the $US/Euro FX and POG ($US) DISCONNECTING, at a time when the fundamentals for the US economy and the rest of the world for that matter are in dire circumstances.

I share your thoughts on were we are headed and have no idea whether it will be or fast or a slow decent, but the blatant misinformation and distortions that are perpetrated by governments all over the world shows no signs of abating ..... they think it is their god given right to distort financial information and to deceive their populations into making reckless financial decisons...talk about shooting yourself in the foot.....
An example in the US is the housing bubble and the reliance on the continuing higher prices to fuel consumption...this can not and will not continue for much longer..
In the end, the problems are all placed on the next generation to sort out and inevitable the problems come home to roost...

I could go on, but.... i digress.

GOLD is money, it's been money for donkeys....
Its role will be dictated by the devaluation (or true value) of paper currencies the globe over. This may take some time but it has started.

Share prices of gold producers will invariably be linked to a host of factors... a much higher POG will offset any of the negatives going forward.

I personally trade the gold producers both short and long, depending on the season ...its just another share right!!

Over the last 7 months gold producers have sold off and have rallied recently....I believe we still have several months of increases in their prices before the inevitable XMAS sale season arrives......i could be completely wrong though..

Keep following Sparticus, its going to get interesting, very interesting in the weeks, months and years ahead for our beloved GOLD

Regards

GB

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 10
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 12, 2005 - 01:33 pm:

Yep, it's all kind of new territory we're in - the disconnect in particular, which puts gold in a world of it's own. Interesting indeed.

I'm just wondering if it's possible that, with the market in freefall, but with the gold price climbing steeply together with the possibility of huge profits for gold miners, whether the gold sector will perhaps rise with the POG, against the trend of the rest of the market.

I mean, has that ever happened before, where a particular sector has defied a crashing market?

The reason I ask is because I've got couple of small producers and I'm not sure whether to dump them because of the market prospects, or hold them because of the prospects of gold.

Sparticus

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 11
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 12, 2005 - 02:06 pm:

Oh, sorry Gold bug, I just realised, you sort of answered my question. I kind of speedread it over a cup of tea...
Thanks guys
Roger

archer

Member

Post Number: 736
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, June 13, 2005 - 12:54 pm:

Sparticus
Generally in a market crash everything goes down
If gold keeps rising its a great time to pick up gold
stocks though
I dont expect a crash this year as 5 years ALWAYS rise

sparticus

Member

Post Number: 12
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, June 13, 2005 - 01:08 pm:

Thanks,
I'm curious about this notion of '5 years always rise'. Care to expand on that a little?
Sparticus

archer

Member

Post Number: 738
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, June 13, 2005 - 01:26 pm:

I'm referring to the DOW here Sparticus
Years ending in 5 are up years(this has been so for over
100 years)

goldbug

Member

Post Number: 208
Registered: 02-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, June 14, 2005 - 08:57 am: