Archive through November 09, 2005

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kate

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Post Number: 136
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 12:48 pm:

I'm waiting to see the results of the fallout too. Might buy LHG though, will see how the rest of the day pans out.
Kate

kate

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Post Number: 137
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 03:37 pm:

I've sold everything and will wait this out. Back to the planning board to sort out a "to buy" list.

Kate

rederob

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Post Number: 1510
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 12:22 am:

LME warehouses have reported strong inventory drawdowns for all base metals tonight; not surprisingly copper is again leading the pack, losing 3,475 tonnes yesterday while COMEX dropped 380 tonnes (yet another cycle low hit with only some 4,500tons now available for delivery).
With US markets about to open in a few minutes it will be interesting to see if the tripple whammy of lower oil prices, weaker greenback and stronger demand move the metals north.

hailoh

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Post Number: 147
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 08:31 pm:

G'day Rederob.

As a change of pace, have a look at an agricultural commodity: wheat. By my reading, international wheat stocks are near an all time low, and the rains earlier this year should augur well for our home crop. There is some exposure on the ASX through AWB- the chart looks pretty healthy so far with a retracement to the 20WMA and holding at support.

rederob

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Post Number: 1520
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Friday, October 07, 2005 - 09:02 pm:

hailoh
Thank you for a vote of possible confidence in me - but I regret I am not on top of base metals yet.
So to add food to the table would simply mean I was a glutton for punishment, and I am already married.
In case you are interested in this sector there are apparently also excellent trading opportunities in the futures sector.
It was always my ambition to retire to a Pacific island, raising cattle with my sons, and watching simultaneously the setting and rising sun: You know, a place where the sun's rays meet.

rederob

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Post Number: 1530
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 01:17 pm:

Copper continues to climb - today's newswire item:
DJ Comex Copper Review: Another Contract High On Fund Buying

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Fund and speculative buying enabled high-grade copper futures to hit a fresh life-of-contract high in New York Friday for the fifth day in a row.
Traders noted there didn't appear to be any fresh copper-industry news behind the move but suggested that certain ongoing supply concerns - such as strikes and recent inventory drawdowns - continued to underpin the market.
The most-active December copper contract settled up 255 points at $1.8085 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. March copper rose 250 points to $1.7270.
December hit a fresh contract high of $1.8090 late in the day.
"We had fund buying," said a floor trader. "People have an idea that we're going to see $2. We keep hitting new contract highs every day. It looks very bullish.
"Eventually, a correction is going to come true. But I think we're going to have to see $2 before it happens," the trader said.

rederob

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Post Number: 1537
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 09, 2005 - 11:52 am:

oil
going down
but not out
at least not yet

thommo78

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Post Number: 72
Registered: 05-2005

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Votes: 0


Sunday, October 09, 2005 - 10:16 pm:

hailoh i read your post re global wheat stocks and prices. I watch this market every day so it's good to see someone else on this forum is interested as well. I don't know if the AWB is leveraged to global wheat prices .. more to domestic prospects i reckon (ie the health of the Aussie wheat crop). For example if global wheat prices were very high but the Aussie crop was up the creek, this wouldn't auger well (excuse the pun) for AWB. Our wheat crop is in pretty good nik and it's sp may perform well in coming months...

If you want exposure to wheat then as rederob says the futures market would be your best bet.

If you have an interest in the wheat market (CBOT wheat, KCBT wheat) we could start another thread .. let me know your thoughts.

hailoh

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Post Number: 151
Registered: 04-2003

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 10:03 pm:

Thommo78 I don't trade the futures markets - it keeps me occupied trading CFDs at present. I picked up on wheat during a phone conversation with a funds manager in Hong Kong who has been very bullish on commodities for a long time, and who made the point that there were promising prospects for some of the staple non-metal/oil items. I looked and agreed and then sought some collateral exposure in the CFD list. So far so good.

tryhay

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Post Number: 2
Registered: 09-2005

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Votes: 0


Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 11:14 pm:

Hello Guys,

Another option to get into "staple non-metal/oil items" is the AWB Ltd. Cropping is approaching (as well as dividend) and the indicators: MA, OBV, & MACD are just heading in the right direction - even with the current events.

I Hold.

rederob

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Post Number: 1563
Registered: 10-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 12:16 am:

tryhay
hailoh suggested that a few posts earlier - so maybe you guys are on a good thing

i just came back to say that COMEX copper warehouses had only 3677 short tons available for delivery and at present rate of draw (473 tons yesterday) would be empty in a few weeks

LME warehouse draws are gathering pace, and as cancellations are outstripping restocking by about 2:1 copper prices are destined for further highs in coming weeks. Another week's data should settle the debate over whether supply can meet demand this quarter, but so far the numbers suggest it's way short.

nickel continues to wane, tho a hefty cancellation yesterday could trim downside freefall over the next few days - China's reluctance to import nickel due to a stainless steel glut has taken its toll: the question remains as to whether this is a medium or longer term problem for nickel

archer

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Post Number: 1042
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 09:56 am:

Tryhay
We are already on the job
AWB thread started here over a month ago
The foodstuffs are next to feel the wrath of inflation
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/590628.html

archer

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Post Number: 1043
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 10:03 am:

A snip from Manfinancial Commodity report this morn-------
---------
"Without getting into the relative standing of world grain ending stocks, consumption patterns and other analysis, we will make the following statement: the influence of high energy prices is going to make stellar grain production more difficult to come by. Given ongoing global growth, rising inflationary expectations and the push from oil prices, we suspect that soybean oil, wheat, corn, cotton, and silver prices will see significant price gains in the coming year!"

Bring it on i say

kate

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Post Number: 156
Registered: 04-2005

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 10:07 am:

Archer, I don't understand, it sounds very contradictory to me.

Kate

archer

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Post Number: 1045
Registered: 11-2002

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Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 10:16 am: