'Nothing like a NICKEL BOOM!

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captain_chaza

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Post Number: 2109
Registered: 02-2003

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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 08:19 pm:

Ahoy there!

Has anybody got any good NICKEL charts?

Salute and Gods' Speed
capn

PS Sweet Sea-Cadet-Officer Princess Ann

Get on to it!
ASAP!
You know what is required!

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

rederob

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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 09:42 pm:

What would anyone do with a chart on nickel?
Kitcometals has enough info to indicate the last 5 years' action.
Get a seat on LME to trade it.
Or buy MRE to ride the trend a little longer.

captain_chaza

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Post Number: 2111
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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 10:07 pm:

Same as WE would do with a Gold chart

LEARN LEARN LEARN to get an edge

**************

Bon voyage and Gods' speed to you and your family
capn

PS Thanks for your PM re Spids Home Page
Only a mother would believe that one!
PPS I am not your mother!

(Message edited by colin_twiggs on August 28, 2006)

tryhay

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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 10:18 pm:

That sounds like a Dorathy Dixer Rederob. A pic tells a 1,000 words so I have attached some to varify the gist of discussion here:

The '6 Month LME Nickel Warehouse Stocks Level' tells a sad tale reducing inventory ......
Stocks

The '6 Month Nickel' shows a concerted NNE direction (particularly since middle of June '06)
Ni P

The '(MRE) MINARA RESOURCES LIMITED' chart shows a NNE direction SP (not quite as the recent '6 Month Nickel' chart) but heading in the right direction ~ even with volitility.
MRE_D

Looks like MRE Ex Div date is 04-Sep-2006 so good potential for some more increase in MRE_SP - perhaps time for a short-term top up?

PS Looks like I missed some of the discussion here ~ perhaps a tad less attitude wouldn't go astray here :-)
Mark

(Message edited by tryhay on August 27, 2006)

rederob

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Monday, August 28, 2006 - 10:46 am:

tryhay
Thanks for the charts.
It's the fundamentals that continue to drive nickel.
You will see in a post to holycow a month ago that I said nickel was a lay down misere to breach $30k.
The charts do not tell you how tight nickel supply is, going forward: And it is this driver that will keep the metal priced exceptionally high in weeks to come.
The other reason the charts are of little value is because nickel relies on strong stainless steel order books.
When someone can alert me to that chart I will be as happy as a pig in mud.

The captain was inviting anne, who I believe has been banned from posting on IC, to come to his aid.
I am not sure what sort of ploy that was, nor his reference to my private email to him - which is best left private.
What his regular personal attacks do to imbue posters with respect for him is a mystery I won't worry too much about.

colin_twiggs

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Monday, August 28, 2006 - 02:24 pm:

Charles,

That language is inappropriate for the forum. I think you owe R. an apology -- he was trying to help.

Regards,
Colin

captain_chaza

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Post Number: 2113
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Monday, August 28, 2006 - 05:27 pm:

My apologies Officer Red Rob

I have tried to find my BAD language but it has evidently been censored
I accept that in literacy circles the editor's opinion is correct
I also accept that is final

I apologize to you in good faith and ask for your forgiveness
You must know I am one of biggest fans in Word-smithing

All I can say is that I have been experimenting with a couple of miracle drugs

Avomine and Dramamine which is much used in America

Once I get my day of Bad language (ie:the day I put my foot in my mouth again) I will be able to see which one of these two miracle drugs affects my language

I never mix them on any one given day!

Either way I hope you accept my apology?

Re My reference to my Sweet Princess Ann
We all know she has been Banned but I did not think it was a LIFE-SENTENCE

Do you know?
Does anybody know?

I always thought she was on "Read Only"
If she is still barred on IC then she knows where to find me

I have always found her contributions extremely beneficial even after allowing for a little leeway for her bad temperament at times

Living in close quarters on a yacht is never ever easy!
Ya know?

Well done Sea-Cadet-Officer Tryer for getting the best out of a VERY POOR charting package

I was/am merely looking for better
MUCH MUCH BETTER!

Salute and Bon voyage for now
capn

PS R
You already know I luv your word-smithing abilities and your fine art in the use of the English language

Be warned : Officers H and Peter 1 are biting at your heels
Officer Justice unfortunately seems to have fallen overboard in these word-smithing stakes

What a loss he is!

Please keep it up Off R

It is not what you say but how you say it I find so appealing

PPS I hope You know I will always check with my charts before I do anything regarding any of your Sweet and Sour Fundamentals?

rederob

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Monday, August 28, 2006 - 10:50 pm:

Captain
Apology accepted.
I trust you do with charts as you do with your other life experiences.
As nickel is only traded on the LME one will not find an abundance of charts on the metal. You certainly do not get a COT to work from, and trading volumes are somewhat irrelevant in tight markets as there is little metal to trade!
Supply and price charts from Kitco give a big picture view, but one won't find many technical indicators to work from.
Short to medium term one needs to develop other useful indicators to get an idea of what is happening.
I use short-term-averaged ratios of cancelled warrants to total stock as a guide to supply tightness.
I use averaged backwardation to validate the trend.
I review the cyclical trend in LME delivery, typically very strong in August, and discount this from the norm (as one would using seasonal adjustment principles).
I extrapolate these data into the near term to determine when it's better to buy or sell (not that I ever sell much).
I can tell you that the probability for significant further upside to nickel is very high - an extension to $40k is quite likely.
I can also tell you that the probability of a sharp decline (likely +30%) within the month is equally high. This probability needs to be tested daily, however, as each set of new data can extend or reduce the timeframe if variations to the norm are significant.
More importantly, I can tell you that if we are to use recent metal price themes to characterise nickel's price action over the coming quarter, the probability of a prolonged price decline is very low, suggesting a pullback to around $25k will be followed by consolidation.
I have not learned any of this from looking at charts.
Mostly because they won't tell me that to begin with.

lulu62

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Tuesday, August 29, 2006 - 08:14 am:

Good morning rederob,

I assume a similar story applies to zinc? I can't seem to find a decent chart for either of these metals. Maybe just have to make do with kitco?

Thanks .. luc

rederob

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Tuesday, August 29, 2006 - 06:24 pm:

Luc
I believe so.
There are specialist sites with subscription services that are very expensive, but apparently you get what you pay for.
My view is that metals per se (and not equities) are very easy to follow on fundamental grounds.
What you can find on Kitcometals is a simple reflection of those realities.
I believe zinc-based equities are much safer than any other in the metals arena, and that the medium term price potential is significantly undervalued by today's prices.

rederob

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Monday, October 09, 2006 - 08:01 pm:

Captain
Over a month ago on this thread I suggested you ride the trend a little longer on a particular equity.
Up around 30% since then, and still rising.
Would you like to pick a price it will end the month at?
I will guess the first number to be a "4".

captain_chaza

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Monday, October 09, 2006 - 08:46 pm:

Ahoy Brave and Loyal Officer Red Robert

Have I ever dis-agreed with you
(On Nickel)?
Unfortunately without a better law than the law of Three
I have had to design a New Law -The Law of Five

This Law is not much different than the Law of Three
Which in turn is not that much different than the law of TWO

Please take my Advice
When you come to a Fork in the Road
TAKE IT!!

Salute and God's Speed
capn

Such is Life at Sea

rederob

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Monday, October 09, 2006 - 09:52 pm:

Captain
As a naive knave
I would baulk at a fork
But never a spoon

As for the law of 3, or 5 or 2
There are many more numbers
And you have missed a few

So did you buy MRE.
Can I count on an affirmative no?