Archive through July 15, 2006

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sparticus

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Post Number: 34
Registered: 04-2005

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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 04:18 pm:

This slow slide is a strange one, coz I have a feeling that, rather than being just a temporary correction, its actually a slow kind of crash. In the reading I've done to try to figure out whether it will bottom or just keep on sliding, one particular article by David Chapman, at Union Securities stands out.

I'd be interested in other views of what he says

http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1149879892.php

robbo

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Post Number: 50
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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 09:42 pm:

sparticus
i think it is pure speculation as to what the markets will do in future. That there will be a reversal in trend is certain - what we dont know is how it will play out. However we can look at the facts as they exist today which may give us some clues:
1. daily trading volumes are much greater today than they were 10 or more years ago
2. There are many more traders/investors in the markets today -
3. there are more types of investment products and managed funds than ever before
4. derivatives of all sizes and shapes are available to almost anyone
5. The value of derivatives are huge - some 250 trillion US dollars i believe - most are to do with interest rates.
6. Most of trades are program trades -65% in US stock markets i understand
7. Information is transmitted instantly - worldwide
8. most traders/ investors are more aware of at least some of the issues which may effect their portfolio - people have become more savvy about financial and economic issues
9. the huge growth in hedge funds and the leverage available to them
10. the internet allows many traders/investors to have access to views expressed by financial commentators and technical analysts.
11. Margin debt is as high as it was in 1987 in US and Australia and trending higher - may have slowed in recent weeks

There are probably other facts which may influence outcomes.

The degree of some of the recent stock market falls in many markets where have severe - 95% or more of stocks down in at least 3 days over recent weeks. I would think the risks of some sizeable falls once the primary uptrends are reversed are higher than minor falls (less tha 1%)over along period. On the other hand i think the bear market will of a secular nature and take maybe 5- 10 years to complete.Whatever happens there will be always be corrections- markets zig zag in both directions.
Finally if the vast majority of people think the same they will probably be proved wrong eventually.
Regards
Robbo

justice

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Post Number: 637
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 10:33 am:

MMN is in fricken fire-sale mode.

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

justice

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Post Number: 638
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 12:50 pm:

POG at <= $595 is a distinct possibility.
Your wish may be granted rederob.

(Message edited by justice on June 13, 2006)

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

archer

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Post Number: 1566
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 01:53 pm:

Justice
I was dealing with Jaggards up until a few months ago
when they stuffed me around big time
http://www.jaggards.com.au
There service was good up till then
Since then ive been getting gold and silver bars from
Australian Bullion Company--0292314511
The women there are very helpful and efficient
Coins ive been buying from web coin auction sites

justice

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Post Number: 639
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 02:21 pm:

thankyou archer,
I've found a merchant who's rates appear top notch.
Let me know what you think.
I recon there's still time to be choosey.

http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/
http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Pricesheet.pdf

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

sparticus

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Post Number: 35
Registered: 04-2005

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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:00 pm:

Archer and Justice,

I'm curious about why you don't use the Perth Mint, in particular their Gold certificates.

In contemplating buying gold for the first time, I've been asking around and the Perth Mint Certificate program is almost universally recommended

justice

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Post Number: 640
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:30 pm:

hey sparticus,
I remember you mentioning the Perth Mint before.
I just had another look.
It's all in metric. What's the conversion factor?
How do you compare prices?

(OK, you did say the the certificate program. My error. )

Funnily enough Jaggards is in their approved dealer list.

Oh yeah.
The also www.e-gold.com but the FED is likely to confiscate eventually - as an afterthought.

(Message edited by justice on June 13, 2006)

(Message edited by justice on June 13, 2006)

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

sparticus

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Post Number: 36
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:41 pm:

Hmm ... nope, I don't think i've mentioned it before coz I wasn't really interested in buying physical gold before ...

The thing I'm interested in though is the certificates - http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/depository_layout2.asp?url=1

Thye're 2% commission to buy and 1% commission to sell.

I've looked at the Ainslie site that was mentioned, and could find no mention of commissions, so I'm just wondering which way to jump, coz it's a physical gold play that I'm headed for either way.

archer

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Post Number: 1567
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:53 pm:

Justice
Looks fine,let me know what the service is like
As far as time is concerned the best time to buy the pms
is July
Weve seen what gold did during the first 6 months of the
year and that was seasonally weak time.
The latter half of the year is the strong time so imagine
what gold is capable of in the next 6-7 months
Sparticus
Personal preference,i prefer to have the shiny,sparkling
product rather than a paper certificate
Also i buy it with cash and in the times ahead when every
one wants to buy gold and silver i will sell for CASH
if you know what i mean
There is a great quote at the site Justice listed above
In 1928, George Bernard Shaw, no conservative, summed up his attitude perfectly in “the Intelligent Woman’s Guide to Capitalism and Socialism”: you have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of members of the government, And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold”.

justice

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Post Number: 641
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:04 pm:

sparticus,
there is no commission with ainslie.
quote buy/sell price is as per above pricelist.

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

archer

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Post Number: 1568
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:05 pm:

Justice
For your info ABC today quoted me 516 for 1kg silver
verses ainslies 522

sparticus

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Post Number: 38
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:24 pm:

Hmm, the old apocalypse trick...yep, I suppose there is that to consider, and if it comes to that, you're right - paper is for lighting fires ... physical product rules.

No commissions with Ainslie - sounds like they trade it like a currency. So ... you just walk in, put your money down and then walk out with a gold bar. I might go with that.

I'm in Victoria so I'll have to get it delivered ... but I'll figure it out... thanks all...you've been most helpful ...

justice

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Post Number: 642
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:27 pm:

right o archer,
now just gotta try and catch the right moment.

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

wjbennet

Member