Archive through July 27, 2006

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rederob

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Post Number: 1802
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Monday, June 05, 2006 - 09:43 pm:

thommo
Look at where oil was in June last year and the year before - ie in the years when oil started to get scarce and the speculators moved in.
If the trend repeats we are looking at oil topping again in August before dipping or consolidating.

rederob

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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 06:54 pm:

I did a little exercise on copper and nickel, to examine the legacy of a primary correction to a parabolic trend.
It's present below in a rather basic form, but you should be able to pick up what I am seeing/saying.
We need copper to consolidate, and it remains too highly priced and still quite vulnerable.
That said, copper was never as volatile on the supply/demand front as nickel, so I don't see it experiencing such a long period in the wilderness, nor do I see copper necessarily needing to retrace to the extent that nickel did.
For those that may not look at the supply/demand equations of the base metals, I can assure you that you will find nickel ready to run hot as soon as market volatility wanes. Copper is not quite as tight, but that is largely due to producers sitting on their hands with respect to forward sales: Backwardation rates make spot a preference, but it also makes running a business impossible to plan.

perler59

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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 09:59 pm:

Good evening Rederob.

What are your thoughts on zinc. I imagine it will move in sympathy with copper?

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

rederob

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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 11:36 pm:

perler
I have charted the two metals and you can see the similarities.
Both chartwise and fundamentally zinc is in slightly better fettle going forward.
My view is that zinc has not attracted the attention of copper, especially from the big funds, and will continue to be a little less volatile.

perler59

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 12:11 am:

Thankyou Sir :-)

Jason Hommel is bullish on zinc. He may sound a bit over the top at times, but he makes a good argument (assuming the demand remains stong, and that is the big IF):

http://www.silverstockreport.com/email/Zinc.html

http://sttc.net.au/~stever

justice

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Post Number: 630
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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 12:33 am:

Link to latest essay from Adam Hamilton on this topic.

Base Metals Technicals 2
http://www.zealllc.com/2006/basetech2.htm

Oh how my hearth yearns for good fettle. :-)

... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

archer

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Post Number: 1559
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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 10:38 am:

WHOOOOAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

copper

kate

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 10:53 am:

Justice, nice link. Love paragraphs 7-10

Archer, nice graph. Now its going to get interesting.

rederob

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 01:28 pm:

Steady archer.
Copper has only risen 150% in 12 months.
Oh, I see.
Its the zero after the five I keep missing.
Yes, copper can correct to below $3.00 and its bull trend is still intact. Its RSI (over 40) is still not as sad as tin's or lead's (and probably won't be this year), nor aluminium's.
But with a backwardation still around $100 and no sustained recovery in exchange stock levels, copper's uptrend will certainly resume in the second half unless there are rapid changes to the global economic climate.
The buying opportunity for copper-related stock (and zinc as noted earlier) is nearing bargain basement levels.
I don't know how many other readers still have their OXR from a few years back, at prices under a dollar, but this correction is not likely to shake loose such holdings.
The bottom line is that base metal fundamentals remain tight for nickel, zinc and copper - in that order - and taking a very long term view (minimum 10 years) are likely to remain that way.

archer

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Post Number: 1562
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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 02:19 pm:

Yes but if you did not know that was a copper chart you would
say "look out below"
Thats the thing about parabola's or is it parabolii
when they turn around and head down there is no support
for a looooong way

rederob

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Sunday, June 11, 2006 - 06:10 pm:

archer
As you know, elsewhere I was saying "look out" in April.
So when the correction was still "on its way" in May, it was hardly a surprise.
Below I table a chart for copper from 1960 to 2005 so that you can count the many parabolas that are a feature of every commodity sector.
By the way, since last October (where your chart begins) copper has been pretty much in continuous blue sky territory. I have a sneaking suspicion that the many black box traders have only recently been able to get the software into order so they don't get so easily caught out going forward.

captain_chaza

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Monday, June 12, 2006 - 07:17 pm:

Pardon me for the intrusion
BUT
Let me submit to you
"It all depends on who you are talking to?"

Eg in the case of Copper
If it was your mother/wife then it is in deed a 160% profit in 1 year

If it was to me then it is a loss in Profits off the top from 220% to 160%% in a month or so

Too many bad books have been written about protecting your initial capital

What about protecting your winnings?

The question becomes more about
"When is it your money?" and when do you start losing EGO?

I submit to you the frightening truth!
"It is your money at the top!"
Anything after that are lost profits and It was yours to lose!

I also submit to you that %'s OFF the Top are heaps larger than %'s off the bottom

Nobody can pick the top but we can all surely work out when the money was ours!!!

Salute and Gods' Speed
capn

PS Please don't get me wrong
I am as guilty as anyone else here
Bad Habits/Excuses Die Hard! ie:IF THEY EVER DO?

PPS Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie
SCO Katie

I do agree with Officer JustICE in the way he looks at your Mangoes but I am also a LEG man myself

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on June 12, 2006)

"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897

rederob

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Monday, June 12, 2006 - 09:41 pm:

Captain
If you think that copper won't hit $4.00/lb again then you should have taken your profits when the correction became obvious, assuming you decided to ride out the parabolic incline.
I think at the moment the story with copper is the same as it is with gold, except that this is the first really big correction that copper has had, whereas gold has managed a good one each year since 2001.
I can only reiterate that I am not an active "trader" so buying the dips, even if they are not always the very bottom of the curve, is not too much of a worry.
Given that profits or losses are only capitalised on sale (apart from the tax man's annual cut) the trick is never having to sell!
If I should be so lucky.

archer

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Post Number: 1565
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 01:22 pm:

Carnage continues
It looks like a liquidity event as everything is getting sold
Short and getting shorter