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     lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 540
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 10:55 am: |  
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closed out USDJPY short @ 11825.5 
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 541
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 04:49 pm: |
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I know some of you have had a few disappointments over the last two weeks. But it is not time to give up now. It is rare for the market to move so much during our daylight. We are in for big things tonight and if you miss opportunities like this you risk missing the few big trades that make all the difference at the end of the month.
Potential Shorts :
AUDJPY
USDJPY
GBPJPY
AUDUSD
Potential longs
EURNZD
Your task is to find value in a fast moving market.
Cheers
Lafee
ps. my entry points are not close enough yet but that will change.
INCREDIBLE OFFER - only $12 USD per month
30 day FREE trial -
Download Here
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Position at the edge.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 970
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 05:02 pm: |
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Lafee
The fx platform you recommended is very good , haven't started doing demo trades etc but the charts are good.
Do you know a good one for futures, us, oz etc so i can get some better charting software live tics etc , better than the IG charts, compared to meta t-rader-1111 , they are not too good as i get the casino feeling where i never know what what time it is, or timeframe or trend i am chasing, i know they wouldn't do that on purpose, but hey ..
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 971
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 05:19 pm: |
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ps Lafee
how do you manage the timeframes, i am finding it very confusing.
is it wise to remain in the one timeframe once entering the trade ?
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 542
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 05:23 pm: |
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Its just a matter of how much you want to spend. The exchange fees for futures are expensive and you have to pay for each thing you want. It might be 50-60 US p/month for the metals, 30 US p/month softs etc etc. Plus you will be looking at about 90US p/month from your data supplier just to run the feed. A good charting package will most likely set you back US$2000+. I use Genesis Platinum which is like Tradestation but I find it easier to use. I pay about US$160 p/month for my data but I only get 20min delayed data on the futures - live for US stocks and forex.
You will not get anything like metatrader on futures without paying up for it. THats why Metatrader is so good. Not as good as Genesis but hey its free.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 543
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 05:29 pm: |
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Msparks,
Yes, I do not switch timeframes after entry. I stick with the 60min for scalp style trades and a daily for 1-5 day trades.
Don't believe the 'every chart is the same' nonsense. A 60min chart is very different to a daily. Different traders use different timeframes and they are motivated by different things.
Cheers
Lafee
Position at the edge.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 972
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 08:28 pm: |
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No wonder my head is spinning, i have been going from 1 min to 5 min to 1 hour, daily, back and forth , it is like being in a tumble drier and not knowing which way is up.
Thanks Lafee
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 544
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 08:42 pm: |
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Looking at shorting AUDJPY @ around 98.85
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 545
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 10:25 pm: |
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looking for a spike above 9840 to enter short on the AUDJPY.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 546
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 19, 2007 - 11:10 pm: |
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Just shorted AUDJPY @ 9842, target 70pips
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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oski
Member
Username: oski
Post Number: 52
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 20, 2007 - 09:03 am: |
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Two trading platform worth to look.
ikonfx.com (forex, metal, futures trading) and cmsforex.com (VT platform for forex trading)
Cheers
Oski
Dreams do not vanish, so long as people do not abandon them.
Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet.
Note: This represent my individual opinion, therefore individuals should formulate their own trading decisions or seek professional advice to minimize risk to their investment portfolios.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1836
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 20, 2007 - 08:50 pm: |
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Thank you Oski - will check those out.
(Still have to tryout the Metatrader4 platform that Lafee advised about ages ago)
Have a look in the Forex news section - I am not posting the technical news any more - I think it is misleading, and accuracy less than 30% (a guess, yes, but still not performing). That goes for Sonray and Forexyard news - a guide is just that!
I am having a breather right now, but it looks like the BOJ is coming back on track to raise interest rates and finally rid itself of the carry trade.
I think more was spoken about over coffee at the G7 meeting than was mentioned on the Agenda, regarding the parlous state of the YEN. This should lead to strengthening of JPY against other currencies now - even the EUR and AUD, since both of these are near their record highs.
If the JPY is rallying, and the majors are coming off a bit, then it would be a good longer term ploy to be LONG the JPY - agree?
While I have the floor, could I ask if anyone has access to a good backtesting platform? I have a few ideas I wish to test in various timeframes.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 547
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, April 20, 2007 - 09:56 pm: |
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closed out AUDJPY @ 98.04. Sick and tired of this trade. I was supposed to wait for 98.88 to get out but I need the sleep and could not be stuffed waiting to save a few hundred bucks.
Cheers and goodnight Lafee
Position at the edge.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1840
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 21, 2007 - 02:16 am: |
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Just a bit more on those trading platforms Oski -
Ikon address is here: http://www.forexrebates.com/ikonfx.asp
I am trying to enclose a sample of their screen ... not too clear I'm afraid.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 980
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 21, 2007 - 06:28 am: |
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Thanks Oski
Couldn't get it to download but will have another fiddle later, the second one seems to be just FX.
Is there a reason why the markets are going up.
It is like a "soon arm ee" around the world.
I want to talk big picture , strategy,
actually, i just want to know what the hell is goin on and how i can take advantage of this world wide phenomena, runnaway trains are incredibly hard to stop ya know, not even a sacred heavenly cow could slow it down long enough to stick at his game.
What is the big picture strategy, buy blue chips, use the strong dollar to buy O/S managed funds, buy india and chinese funds ?, short the ausie dollar, buy realestate, buy a new imported car ? what do we do now ?
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oski
Member
Username: oski
Post Number: 53
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, April 21, 2007 - 03:17 pm: |
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Mr Sparks,
There are few sides you can have a look.
To choose a broker you can have a look at: http://www.forexbastards.com/ (but when you read the feedback keep in mind that a lot of people lost their money because they dint know how to use the platforms, leverage ext),very important because in the last two years there are hundreds of brokers offering services, a lot of them from Russia register in countries like Switzerland or US, offering MT3 or 4 trading platform. This is a good trading platform but can be easy manipulated to the advantage for the broker. Ikon or VT its harder to manipulate.
Good information you can find in;
http://www.elitetrader.com/
http://www.moneytec.com/
http://www.babypips.com/
Forex is different to stocks because no one can predict how high or how low the currency can go. There is no regulation for forex market there is no book value no ratios ext.
Hope this help
Oski
Dreams do not vanish, so long as people do not abandon them.
Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet.
Note: This represent my individual opinion, therefore individuals should formulate their own trading decisions or seek professional advice to minimize risk to their investment portfolios.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 984
Registered: 10-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 12:57 am: |
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Hi Oski
I had a look at babypips,
found the timeframes commentary interesting, i had been doing multiple timeframes , all over the shop, then decided on 1 hourly which is a better option, but find them boring, would like some more action and "commission pips loss's", as i cannot watch too often so when i do i want some action.
Anyway, this might be useful.
Also the traders history is a good one, i imagine there are millions of people with a computer and a few grand all over the world , looking to be a trader, kick back, make money all day ,any day, and never have to go to work, is that what FX has become, it is no wonder each time i look at a chart and think this will go short, it goes in the opposite direction, ya see, i know i am not "that clever", and if i say "short", well, the smart guy and the rich guys with the million dollar computer analysis software, will be deliberately doing the exact opposite to catch my cash, right ?  or was it just the timeframe, or can't i read a chart, o,me,o,my.
This is a traders record from a website, i have added the currency values for the mini trades in IG Markets.
OK , the 3 right hand columns are added.
Do these figures look roughly correct ? I have changed the jpy pips to US dollars , and the CAD pips to us dollars etc at todays very approximate rate. (if it is not too much to ask ?)
OR do i do something different depending on short or long ? to calculate the dollars won or lost ? (if it is not too much to ask ?just approximately,is the technique correct ?)
Then i would need to take all this back from US to ausie dollars to spend the cash but the start balance would have been ausie dollars so there must be consideration for starting ozie cash and finishing ozie cash for each week or each month.Gets a bit tricky hey ?
Or does everyone just count pips and work it back some day ?
So , anyone have a sheet ?
"Winners never quit and quitters never win"
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oski
Member
Username: oski
Post Number: 54
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 01:37 am: |
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Mrsparks,
I dint have time to have a look but usually if you trade live you can have account setup in two or three currencies and after the trade usually you get e-mail with all the detail.
On the baby pips website there is good post on the charts v time frames I think from my memory it’s called “How to read charts”.
Dreams do not vanish, so long as people do not abandon them.
Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet.
Note: This represent my individual opinion, therefore individuals should formulate their own trading decisions or seek professional advice to minimize risk to their investment portfolios.
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oski
Member
Username: oski
Post Number: 55
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 10:39 am: |
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Ingot,
Rob Booker is coming to Australia.
This is a part of e-mail I got from him
""Will,
I will hold a live seminar in Sydney, Australia, June 4-7, 2007. I
am going to teach a brand new breakout system at the seminar, a brand
new method of money management, an intensive review of a daily system
of support and resistance, as well as the Arizona Rules, which
provide context and clarity when looking at any currency pair on any
time frame. More details are here:
http://www.robbooker.com/sydney.php
Right now you can get a $750 discount off the seminar fee. If you
need more details, email me and include “g’day pips!” in the
subject line. I am thrilled to be coming down under! The seminar is
nearly filled already. Sign up soon if you want to come.""
Cheers
Dreams do not vanish, so long as people do not abandon them.
Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet.
Note: This represent my individual opinion, therefore individuals should formulate their own trading decisions or seek professional advice to minimize risk to their investment portfolios.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1841
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 11:03 am: |
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Thanks Oski, as always
I get Rob Booker's news, and have downloaded his "Strategy 10" free system. (He aims for 10 pips/day, every day)
I am developing my own strategy, and am in the process of setting up a back-tester from here
"Freeware: Forex Strategy Builder 2.4.2.0 download
Build and test your Winning Forex strategy for free!"
I also have the eBook "Bird Watching in Lion Country" by Dirk du Toit, the Chairman of the South African "Forex Investment Association, which he helps regulate. He has some serious insights and make you realise that we are sometimes little ducks on a big swamp, fodder in duck-shooting season!
I will write an eBook one day called:
"Who's got my money? I WANT IT BACK!"
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 548
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 12:05 pm: |
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Ignot,
THere is a programing language called 'R' that some big quant players use to test there strategies. http://www.r-project.org/
It is free software but complicated. Much more powerful than anything I use. You still need data but that can be exported from metatrader.
One day I get round to learning it.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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qed
Member
Username: qed
Post Number: 53
Registered: 01-2006Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 12:37 pm: |
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hello hello, for an excellent read on "position sizing" and "trade expectancy" and heaps of other good stuff go to http://tradermike.net/2006/06/tools_of_the_trade_how_i_work/
cheers Qed
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1842
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, April 22, 2007 - 01:13 pm: |
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Lafee
That was the meanest thing you have ever done - shame. I am "programming illiterate" and although I went all over that site, I came away with only eyestrain! No doubt the R thingo has useful application but I would need to go along with an interpreter!
Qed
Thanks for the site. Good to see another pro at work.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 549
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, April 23, 2007 - 11:24 am: |
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Chart (purple) is the GBPUSD. The indicators below might prove interesting. I won't tell you what they are yet because I thought it might be productive to here some opinions on how to use them from unbias minds. After we have had a talk about it I will reveal what they are.
THe blue indicator at the bottom remains constant on all charts and one above changes in each chart.
Relationship 1
Relationship 2
Relationship 3
Cheers
Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 550
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 24, 2007 - 09:08 am: |
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Ignot,
I know I feel the same way. It would be kind of nice to have a programmer on staff to do all the tedious stuff.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1844
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 24, 2007 - 10:22 am: |
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Lafee
Yep - but I 'm up for a challenge any fine day! If you don't have the skills, hire someone who does!
I have downloaded the strategy tester from the above link.
Have not used it yet - a man has to sleep in between posts! But I have to say it looks interesting.
It can help design a strategy as well as backtest it, and I am unsure about forward testing.
My basics involve ADX / PSAR and maybe one MA.
I have also looked at a longer term idea of using GMMA's on a 4-hour or daily chart.
And I even have a whacky plan to look at uptrends / downtrends, pullbacks and inside / outside bars at certain support / resistance levels.
I have downloaded the strategy tester from the above link.
Have not used it yet - a man has to sleep in between posts! But I have to say it looks interesting.
It can help design a strategy as well as backtest it, and I am unsure about forward testing.
I like the concept of designing my own system and backtesting it. When a person's energy, emotions, knowledge and sweat goes into something, they "own" it, understand it, know how to tweak it and want to see it perform to its highest capabilities.
There is a degree of satisfaction (Maslow's self-actualisation?) in achieving such a goal. But it is unlikely a person could go out there and read a book or look at a trading platform and expect to find success.
It is forums such as this, where people like yourself, Wadda, MSParks, myself Oski and Stocky (and occasionally others too) openly post what they are doing and their thoughts, that helps the most.
I think this is a "secure" environment to have a bit of a go and learn by doing. I am sure there must be members and guests who are following events with some interest, but do not post.
Please do post guys.
As MSParks says: "If a dill like Ingot can get this to work, why can't anyone else."
I happen to agree!
In the interim, I am taking a break from the live trades and will be developing some basics with demos and backtests. Hopefully I will be able to get enough time to use Metatrader4 and Oanda to advantage.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 551
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 24, 2007 - 08:15 pm: |
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The testing of trends is limited by the lack of sample trades vs time. Being in the right place at the right time, is a dangerous game with the backtester.
Take the forex market. Have a look at the GBPUSD in the 70's. If you were a trendfollower back then wow, you would have cleaned up big time. The confidence aquired with your tools could very well lead you to demise in the 90's. I know its twenty years but where do you start in the cycle. Do you have enough evidence that your tools are predictive or is luck fooling you. Can a 40% strike rate be predictive of anything? But they don't claim to predict do they? Well maybe they should start!
The godfather of trend trading, well one of the main ones, Mr Dennis. The king Turtle himself has blown up I think 3 times. 100's of millions of dollars lost to mechanical trend following systems. If you don't predict how do you predict change before you fall off the cliff with your hands tied behind your back.
At any given point in time there is only a certain amount of money in the world. Money doesn't just disappear - it goes somewhere else. The key to trendfollowing is to trade the market the money is flowing into. A rather complex task of relative analysis across all markets should be the starting point.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 552
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 24, 2007 - 08:25 pm: |
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Looking to get short AUDJPY above 98.43 and AUDUSD above 8305. Scalp only
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 553
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, April 24, 2007 - 09:24 pm: |
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Just shorted AUDUSD @ 8270 and AUDJPY @ 9823
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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maxboost
Member
Username: maxboost
Post Number: 134
Registered: 12-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, April 25, 2007 - 11:13 pm: |
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Howdy,
I feel like we are getting close to a break out on the yen.
Is anyone else thinking that or is it just me? Tight ranges in the last few days. Any thoughts?
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 554
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Thursday, April 26, 2007 - 04:16 pm: |
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Closed out AUDJPY @ 98.82 and AUDUSD @ 8322.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1847
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, May 01, 2007 - 02:32 pm: |
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OUCH! 100 pips!
Lafee I am getting closer to a longer term strategy which can handle more "noise" but which uses less leverage, wider stops and exploits trends from one hour (or longer) charts.
Quite a way yet from implementing it. But I think it is less taxing on the nervous system and should allow more time off-screen.
Coming home from Perth tonight after attending a wedding, so more to say about this in days to come. Unable to follow markets past days, but expecting the YEN to surprise us shortly, despite the latest fundamental news from BOJ.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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oski
Member
Username: oski
Post Number: 56
Registered: 11-2002
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 02, 2007 - 04:33 pm: |
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The best time to trade forex
Dreams do not vanish, so long as people do not abandon them.
Luck is the time when preparation and opportunity meet.
Note: This represent my individual opinion, therefore individuals should formulate their own trading decisions or seek professional advice to minimize risk to their investment portfolios.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1848
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, May 02, 2007 - 09:08 pm: |
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Interesting info there Oski. Thank you. Worth further study for sure.
The home website of the publisher (fxinstructor.com) is also something I will get to ... in time! Several services, blogs etc there I see.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1850
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, May 04, 2007 - 10:23 am: |
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I am expecting the AUD to plunge at 11.30am. But there should be an almost immediate recovery, followed by a slow decline again.
I would expect the AUD to close under .8180 tonight. As I write it is .8234 - an excellent starting position for an up-coming short!
But some of the decline is already built-in I imagine, so the move may not be too spectacular.
Trading with the (down)trend is the way to long-term survival, but there is a remote chance the price could re-visit the resistance line before plunging through the .8200 barrier.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1851
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Saturday, May 05, 2007 - 05:30 am: |
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The AUDUSD went as low as .8170 before beginning its slow climb upwards again.
I expect it to continue its downwards trend though, to close somewhere around .8170 this week. There may be a late sell-off or a late rally - in the lap of the gods.
I am slowly coming around to the fact that trading with low gearing, wide stops and longer term is the best way for people like me who wish to break away from the screen.
Below is the last 18 hrs or so of AUDUSD action on the hourly chart.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1872
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, May 27, 2007 - 07:50 pm: |
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Can the Yen rally this week?
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 555
Registered: 04-2003
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Monday, May 28, 2007 - 08:36 pm: |
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Ignot
I am currently long AUSUSD from 82.01. I will close my position tomorrow morning. I think the USDJPY will have a positive night if I'm going to make money on my AUDUSD position. hope you have been profitable while I've been overseas.
Cheers
Lafee
Position at the edge.
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ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54
Post Number: 1873
Registered: 05-2004
Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Saturday, June 02, 2007 - 10:10 pm: |
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This is more a thesis than anything, but I hope you guys might have a few comments on it ...
You would not want to know the losses in my demo a/c right now ... l:^)
But I entered this trade SHORT at around 119.970!
I am letting it run to explore my own feelings - for no other purpose.
Had I killed the trade at 120.20 as planned, I would not have learned as much as I did about stops, shakeouts, reversals and so on, not to dismiss the role "hope" plays in ensuring failure of a trade.
With the USD ending the week on a high against the JPY I can see signs of exuberance in traders using the carry trade like there is no tomorrow. The evidence is in the exponential rise of the pair.
We all know where this will end, but how far will it reverse?
Does anyone have an opinion technically where support might lie in a crash scenario?
I use the word "crash" because these kinds of parabolic rises sometimes reverse violently when the under-dog currency/economy makes an unexpected news announcement to correct the imbalance.
China did this recently with the rise from 0.1% stamp duty on stock purchases, to 0.3%.
One week earlier they denied that that were considering this, but announced it at midnight Tuesday night. When traders woke up on Wednesday morning, the impact would have been maximised.
The chart shows that the impact was short-lived, and that traders are immune to shock tactics.
Let's see if they are immune to the next one - what can China do to correct this overheating situation with their exchange? Rather I should say "What WILL they do, not what CAN they do..."
Remember that there are only around 45 Chinese stocks that foreigners are allowed to own, so the market rise is largely an internal problem.
Labour is becoming difficult to procure in the cities of China, as workers quit their jobs to trade full-time from home.
Last week, brokers opened about 450,000 NEW trading accounts - a number that rises every week (370,000 the previous week).
My bringing this in to the discussion is relevant because the YUAN is tied to the YEN through business and carry trade deals between the two adjacent economies.
If the YUAN rises, so does the YEN.
The USA power-people Bernanke and Greenspan (who has still not realised he has retired from the job) and Paulsen have been pressuring China to address the trade imbalance by floating the YUAN.
A free-floating YUAN would rise, effectively devaluing the USD against it, and vicariously, the YEN.
A rise in the YUAN against the USD would see relief for the US balance of trade distress. The YUAN is allowed to rise/fall at the moment, but by a pre-determined amount each month, so it is strongly regulated right now.
But the rising of the YEN, would end the carry trade and for those like me, finally my ship would come in, as my long-term view of this pair USDJPY, is at 100 or 110, not 122!
If you get this right - and I think the slide will commence within the next 2 weeks - one of the most amazing trades ever will unfold.
But the implications for the world's stock markets, gold etc, are quite spectacular. We have grown immune to corrections, and many have not experienced a bear market.
There is a lot of pain brewing out there ... just waiting for a trigger.
Back to the demo a/c ... any views on this?
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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hilarius
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| | Sunday, June 03, 2007 - 05:35 am: |
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Friar Ingot
I woke up happy and you've scared the daylights out of me with your crystal clear analysis ... a 5 star effort
What is your recommended safe haven in the stormy waters ahead?
Fr Hilarius (praying for world peace and prosperity)
I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
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ingot54
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| | Sunday, June 03, 2007 - 08:22 am: |
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Good morning prayerful one.
In times like these I recommend going back to the basics. In case you have forgotten those, here are some questions, the answers to which may prompt action ... or indifference.
1) Why did I begin trading/investing?
2) Why am I still trading/investing?
3) Should I be trading/investing?
4) Have I reached my original goals?
5) If not, why not?
6) If so, what are my new goals?
7) Is this a good time to be trading/investing?
8) If so, do I retain full control over my portfolio in the event of a violent correction?
9) If not, why am I not out of the market?
10) Have I ever been fully in cash since I began trading?
11) Should I consider this now?
12) In previous corrections, have my stops protected my portfolio?
13, If not, have I taken the necessary steps to ensure they do the job in the future?
14) Have I studied the precursors to previous corrections to discover possible similarities I may observe today?
15) Did I remark in my daily journal (you do have one, right?) that every previous correction seemed to appear like a thief in the night - unannounced?
By now dear Bro Hilarius I fear you may be more fragile than when I began asking questions, so I think it is time to desist from this course.
Can I simply say, by way of encouragement, that it always rains after a good drought!
Those who install water tanks as a store for the future need have no fear of the drought.
With best wishes
Ingot, who will soon be reprimanded for sullying this fine thread with alter-topics!
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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ingot54
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 12:41 pm: |
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This thread may be of interest to FX traders:
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/35933/1140264.html
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 03:45 pm: |
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Ignot,
Perhaps it would be better to focus on what is actually moving ATM. CAD & NZD crosses are the leaders.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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ingot54
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 05:07 pm: |
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My apologies Lafee - quite off topic and away from the intent of your thread.
Do you visually check each pair, or screen for moves?
Looking forward to more input from you now - welcome back.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 06:04 pm: |
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Ignot,
I don't care about topics. You can talk about anything you like on this thread. I just don't want you to set your hopes on a carry trade crash in the yen. There is so many people talking about a crash yet it hasn't happened. Crashes just cannot be forecasted by the majority.
Don't limit yourself with one roadmap. It is generally a disappointing experience. THere are plenty of opportunities to trend trade - but only if you are prepared to trade broadly and can change your mind with ease.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, June 05, 2007 - 06:12 pm: |
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I determine what is moving most by ranking momentum (percentage based) across all the crosses.
Cheers Lafee
Position at the edge.
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, June 12, 2007 - 03:08 am: |
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AUDUSD looks interesting on the short term chart. My bias is long out of the consolidation.
Cheers Lafee
Ps. keep an eye out for auzzie stocks this week. I think there may be good buying opportunities.
Position at the edge.
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, June 12, 2007 - 03:16 am: |
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Also like the EURUSD for long. Hopefully its extended too far.
Position at the edge.
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, June 12, 2007 - 09:22 pm: |
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Nassim Taleb's new book "The Black Swan - the Impact of the Highly improbable" is now available in bookstore in Australia. Anyone that wants to follow trends needs to read this book. While it is not a how to guild for trading (no good books are), Taleb will open your mind to the philosophy of uncertainty and debunk the advisors prevalent in this industry.
Do yourself a favour, learn to think from a practitioner rather than an academic or a salesperson.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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captain_chaza
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 07:03 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Laffe
I hear the European Bankers are Sea-Ready and prepared to ACT!!!!
Does this mean anything to us "Down-Under?"
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
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| | Thursday, August 09, 2007 - 08:55 pm: |
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Captain,
If the GBPUSD, AUDUSD & EURUSD go down (ie $US strengthens) it will not be good for our equity markets.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 06:04 pm: |
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TROUBLE IN PARADISE?
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Tuesday, September 04, 2007 - 06:13 pm: |
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And... the period nobody really got hurt.
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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msparks
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 04:54 pm: |
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Lafee
can you be a little less cryptic, i have no idea what you are pontificating about, wow, that is a big work for a boy from the bush , isn't it ?
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lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 05:29 pm: |
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AUDJPY is ready to move as ranges are smaller now. I feel the equity markets will follow the direction of a breakout of the AUDJPY range (blue box). I don't have a clue about direction until it happens.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 05:35 pm: |
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The crosses with the highest interest rate differential ie AUDJPY & NZDJPY got hit harder and at the same time as the correction in equity markets. They have not rallied back as much as the equities have. If they turn down again (currencies) I would expect the equities to have another leg down.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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captain_chaza
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 07:46 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Laffe
How do we all look against the "Big Buck"
As I have always said
"There is no other game in town than Sailing against the Big Buck itself!
The rest is only window dressing"
Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie
I think you are 100% correct with your Tech Sector preference
but only ONE PROBLEM
Which Techie on the ASX is truly a Global player?
The only reason the Tech sector looks good is the USA is because they are GLOBAL Titans and can cash-in on all Global Markets
Do you think we have "Many" Global Titans in this class of sail?
I think there is less than ONE hand full
(If that?)
Salute and Gods' speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 07:52 pm: |
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Captain,
If I had to put money on it I would short the AUDUSD. But I'm not yet convinced.
Cheers Lafee
Ps. I have always disagreed with you regarding trading ONLY the majors crosses ($US)
(Message edited by lafee on September 05, 2007)
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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ingot54
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 08:08 pm: |
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Sept. 5 Bloomberg The yen rose after Japan's chief financial regulator said he will monitor credit market losses at the nation's banks, sending stocks lower and eroding demand for riskier investments.
The Japanese currency was the best performer of all the 16 most-active currencies as investors pared purchases of higher- yielding assets with loans made in Japan and Switzerland. European and Japanese stocks fell as higher lending rates indicated global banks are reluctant to lend.
"We're not out of the woods yet in terms of the risk environment," said Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist at Calyon in London. "We're seeing the high-yielding currencies under pressure and the flip side of that is yen strength."
This, in my view is the "orderly unwinding" of the carry trade. Interesting to note that "The Economist" bottom of last page has the USDJPY ending 2007 @ 108, 99 at end 2008, and at 94 in 2009.
The full Economist article is worth your time.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 08:23 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Laffe
You could be right?
I think you might see it all unfold better in 5 charts
AUDUSD
CADUSD
BPDUSD
EURUSD
JPYUSD
It will be all or nothing If ya know what I mean
Only the last 6-7 mths is needed to see what I mean
All must be competing against each other in the same seas and weather conditions against the Big Buck
Salute and Gods' speed
PS Please Make an allowance for a 50 point interest rate drop in America on the 18th Sept 2007
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
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Username: lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 08:46 pm: |
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NZDUSD looks the worst of the US crosses
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 08:51 pm: |
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Ignot,
I find it hard to take seriously anything with 'economist' in the title! Hayekian economics is the only exception.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 09:06 pm: |
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Ahoy Officer Laffe
What has a little minor currency got to do with the All Global Currencies ?
I include the Little Australian Battler (AUD) as a patriot
I am not as dumb as I look
As a patriot I feel I have inside information and know everything that is going on in this part of the World
Don't let time run-out watching the grass grow when you should be looking at the trees
Salute and Gods speed
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
Member
Username: lafee
Post Number: 681
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 09:11 pm: |
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Captain,
A currency traders greatest problem is diversification. The only way to get some of it is to trade the minors.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 09:28 pm: |
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"Diversification" is Lies! Lies! DAMN LIE #1 !!
There is no need for it!!!
It is only designed for the Dumb/Blind and those that know No Better and a disclaimer forour Mums and Dads
A reduction in holding makes a lot more sence than a blind tactical exercise of prayer and will
Only hold what makes sence, Makes sence to me
Have you ever seen a ship with the wrong sails up at the wrong time for the purposes of
"Diversification"
UGLY! UGLY UGLY!
She Never looks like "A Good Ocean-Going Type" and in fact looks like the opposite and a most dangerous ship to be onboard
As you know
I have never lost a ship accept for twice
but that was a long time ago
Salute and Gods speed
(Message edited by captain_chaza on September 05, 2007)
"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.
"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893
"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897
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lafee
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Username: lafee
Post Number: 682
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 10:20 pm: |
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Captain,
I know you like to hold more than one spec share at a time. It's the same thing. I think we actually agree on this issue. You must have a different definition of diversification than me.
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 10:51 pm: |
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Lead up to US open not promising
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Wednesday, September 05, 2007 - 10:59 pm: |
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Link for Hayek ideas
http://cafehayek.typepad.com/
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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kate
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| | Thursday, September 06, 2007 - 09:39 am: |
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Ingot, thanks for the link. I have printed it off as I think that sort of information needs to be reread several times.
It appears that unless Bernanke reduces rates quickly and substantially there is going to be major fallout in the US. Any half hearted measures won't work and moral hazard will be irrelevant in the big picture. A pity really, bad behaviour is rewarded yet again.
Captain C
You are right about a lack of big players in Australia, I'm just building a watchlist of tech stocks in case they rise with overseas sentiment.
Regards
Kate
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ingot54
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 02:30 am: |
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Kate
The "Economist" link was courtesy of HC from the "The Fool in th' Mirror" thread.
Lafee
The site appears a bit abstract - too much information.
Is there a central theme to that ... or a more specific link within, that I could use? I like to investigate, but navigation on the site shows all roads leading to obscurity so far.
Thanks for the link - I haven't given up on it.
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 01:58 pm: |
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Ignot,
You might find the following interview helpful
http://www.everyzing.com/viewMedia.jsp?index=1&start=0&mc=en-aud&il=en&col=en-au d-public-ep&q=hayek&res=41370980&num=10&filter=0&expand=true&match=query,channel &dedupe=1&scol=pod&s=PZSID_0000010109&e=550803
Cheers Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 10:45 pm: |
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hmmmm.
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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lafee
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 10:47 pm: |
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AUDJPY
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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maxboost
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 11:01 pm: |
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hi lafee,
Employment numbers out in the US, had a volatile couple of minutes to say the least
cheers
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ingot54
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 11:08 pm: |
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Cheers Lafee.
I watched the USDCAD and the EURCAD through the news from 9pm until the USD NFP figures at 1030pm. Quite extraordinary to see a 27-pip spread with a 42-pip explosion downwards in the EURCAD.
Recovered though, and the red candles with long shadows under are perhaps signaling an attempt to break the down-trend, and rally.
I have a LONG open on USDCAD, but the current red candle is sending me some messages I don't feel comfortable with.
By the way - thanks for that link above - will crawl around there over weekend.
4-hr chart:
Keep Smiling - Don't look back
Trading style: Chartist Artist _ Breakouts and Shakeouts.
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lafee
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| | Friday, September 07, 2007 - 11:54 pm: |
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Ignot,
Good to see you using metatrader.
Lafee
Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant
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Forex times
