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     tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1164
Registered: 09-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Wednesday, October 01, 2008 - 11:29 am: |  
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I am not sure where the old gold threads have gone, but I used to enjoy the old thread of this name....
Gold has been bouncing around a lot lately with minimal discussion. Seems to have hit some stiff resistance (that 200D_MA) and may just be ready to visit lower climbs.
Daily Gold chart: Indicators (particularly RSI) suggest momentum is waining and price action may be ready for retest of lower levels (contrarian to what one, might expect for this time of year, but nothing else about this market/s is what one might expect so ~ expect the unexpected!)
This chart (from the web) tends to support that view IMO
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1181
Registered: 09-2005
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Votes: 0
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| | Monday, October 13, 2008 - 10:52 pm: |
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For those that are interested I found the gold threads here <http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=1474471&post=1 35911>
Be nice to reminiss when time is available...
Happy trading DYOR
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rederob
Member
Username: rederob
Post Number: 2329
Registered: 10-2002Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 14, 2008 - 12:15 am: |
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Hello tryhay
I have been away too long and found it hard to rediscover old posts, too.
I see archer has started a new thread on gold and the craaaassssshhhhhhhhh, or something.
The most remarkable move on the gold front is its meaning in AUD terms, where $1400 has been breached.
In fundamentals terms the important thing is that physical gold sales are through the roof. Queues to buy gold from outlets have occurred in many countries. Same for silver.
Chickens invariably come home to roost and the pressure on gold in real terms - aside from disconnected futures markets - will be reflected in a concerted price move.
I think I recall disrespectful Charlie opening a thread some time back suggesting that gold was just another commodity. If that were the case then gold would have been smashed down like all the other metals.
Instead, gold is weathering the storm pretty well.
In fact given the strength of the US dollar it is surprising that gold is not in the low $700 range right
now.
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goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug
Post Number: 331
Registered: 02-2004
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 14, 2008 - 01:38 am: |
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Long time no hear Mr Red ....
Looks like it's building up some steam ...
consolidating nicely in a $100 range in a very large flag ...
Onwards and Upwards
PS I've faxed Gordon to congratulate him on his sterling effort bailing out the banks .
Regards
The Golden Bug
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 267
Registered: 04-2003Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:18 am: |
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Colin's most recent diary is a depressing read for those holding the very often repeated opinion that gold (and silver) will be sought after as hedges against loss of value in currencies and other commodities.
I went along with that view by holding LGL after it's merger with EQI. I'm well under water with that one!!
A raft of subscription services that home in on a web site hit offer headline encouragement to go for gold (and take out a subscription).
Even the fund manager that has previously acted as advisor to my wife's pension fund from a major international banking institution has for years been advising clients to hold gold (and silver).
Are there no safe havens apart from inverse ETFs that are surrogate shorting vehicles? Looking at the freefall in the value of the $A, the Canadian dollar, the euro, the pound sterling would suggest that the $US is the safe haven. How can that be if the US is so awash in debt?
My only advice is to stay healthy and to particularly eat more avocados. That way I'll be OK, you'll be OK and we'll be able to enjoy the hindsight together.
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1189
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 09:51 am: |
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Hi hailoh,
hailoh wrote on Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:18 am:Are there no safe havens apart from inverse ETFs that are surrogate shorting vehicles?
Just about the only approach that has made me money this year has been the "short" rather than the "long" approach. Almost every "setup" that looked promising has been a bear market rally and (unless the trade is exited quickly) has turned on a dime and headed lower (following the market trend). I can not sit in front of the screen, and oftentimes can not see the screen from monday to thursday night (because of work commitments). I note that LGL has been true to form: with heaps of volatility to provide potential profits in its weekly giarations (>$1.00 moves in ~ <10 days)- may just be ready for a bounce off $1.69 before it turns turtle and crashes & burns.. Colin's comment about the US $ being strong shows how the market chart must be traded rather than the FA (ie the US$ is as week as water but the rescue and uncertainty is bolstering it when by all measures it should be much lower).....
It is almost depressing to see just about every chart one checks out with the same topping pattern. IMO the only way to stay solvent is to keep the shorting till the bottom has well and truely been picked (the 50D_MA looks a mile too far for this market to achieve).
hailoh wrote on Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:18 am:eat more avocados
Not sure about the advice re avocados but they are great tasting - even if they are high in cholesterol.. I note my higher blood pressure with the increased "stress of the bear market", but I dont think avocados will fix that (am attempting to get back into 20 laps a day which should fix it).......
Happy trading DYOR
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hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh
Post Number: 268
Registered: 04-2003Rating: 
Votes: 1
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| | Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 10:16 am: |
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Tryhay, believe me and believe facts - avocados DO NOT contain cholesterol. They contain unsaturated avocado oil which is highly nutritious. There is a report I am aware of arising from studies at a health farm near Alstonville in northern NSW that suggested the unsaturated oil could help lower blood cholesterol.
The avocado/cholesterol furphy was pedalled for a while by some doctors with no knowledge of fact. All Australian avocados are marketed with the Australian Heart Foundation Tick of Approval, an approbation not easy to achieve. Avocados marketed through the chains must carry audited accreditation that includes intensive orchard traceback to all procedures involving in any way the use of chemicals and are subject to random laboratory checks for chemical residues. Currently 97 compounds are screened and there can be NO traces found for the product to pass.
Avocados, with the backing of the relevant medical organisations, are being heavily promoted as healthy food for babies and mothers, apart from the community at large.
If I could face the markets with the same certainty that I can promote avocado as a very healthy commodity I would be very happy.
Back to gold - the Amex IAU chart and the Australian GOLD charts show different pictures, the Australian chart reflecting the weakness of the $A. The interplay of currency and spot gold price is maintaining the $A price.
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msparks
Member
Username: msparks
Post Number: 1187
Registered: 10-2004
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Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:00 pm: |
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the real gold looks better than the gold producer
" I have my own unique system "
" I buy high and sell low "
"Money is not the main game , it is sticking to the plan, through thick and thin , unwavering from a disciplined approach to share trading "
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1190
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:52 pm: |
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Long time no see msparks
msparks wrote on Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:00 pm:the real gold looks better
I get your point but I see the Continuous Gold contract chart is apparently playing out the same topping pattern that our markets & many shares have already done. I guess does not auger well for the future, particularly if a short term bounce does not result for possible support right about now.... ...
The LGL chart is generally following the US$Gold chart ~ has been?
The GOLD chart suggests the recent parabolic move was not sustainable ~ perhaps it is forming a new channel? or just got ahead of itself??
Looks like being an interesting week all round....
Oh yes I forgot ~ considering this is the time of year that gold is traditionally strong, we should get a bounce (expect the unexpected)before the end of october (as long as the rest of the market don't tank...
(Message edited by tryhay on October 19, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1193
Registered: 09-2005
Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Tuesday, October 21, 2008 - 02:33 pm: |
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tryhay wrote on Sunday, October 19, 2008 - 08:52 pm:particularly if a short term bounce does not result for possible support right about now.... ...
bit early, but price action may just be moving higher on the back of this possible bottoming candle ....
Chart:
Happy trading DYOR
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kate
Member
Username: kate
Post Number: 1022
Registered: 04-2005Rating: N/A
Votes: 0
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| | Friday, October 24, 2008 - 10:01 am: |
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Hi Tryhay
I am extremely cautious about gold at the moment.
We have moved into the next stage of the global crisis, Iceland has defaulted, Argentina looks to be next and there are approx 15 other potential EMs waiting in the wings.
I am assuming that the money that hasn't already left these countries will leave pretty quickly and be repatriated to the US(predominantly). This will lead to a rise in the USD and corresponding reduction in the gold,oil and metal prices...............probably!!
Regards
Kate
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tryhay
Member
Username: tryhay
Post Number: 1197
Registered: 09-2005
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| | Friday, October 24, 2008 - 06:39 pm: |
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Hi Kate
kate wrote on Friday, October 24, 2008 - 10:01 am:I am extremely cautious about gold at the moment
When I posted above I was working off this chart from Friday (bit too early obviously),
But last nights chart shows there may just be some technical bounce occur before it keeps heading south...
It is difficult to believe the strength of the US$ lately & yes I agree when the $ falters that will be the time to load up on gold..
Short term may just get a retest of ~$750
(Message edited by tryhay on October 24, 2008)
Happy trading DYOR
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goldbug
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Username: goldbug
Post Number: 332
Registered: 02-2004
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